External validation and updating of prediction models of bleeding risk in patients with cancer receiving anticoagulants.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with cancer are at increased bleeding risk, and anticoagulants increase this risk even more. Yet, validated bleeding risk models for prediction of bleeding risk in patients with cancer are lacking. The aim of this study is to predict bleeding risk in anticoagulated patients with cancer. METHODS: We performed a study using the routine healthcare database of the Julius General Practitioners' Network. Five bleeding risk models were selected for external validation. Patients with a new cancer episode during anticoagulant treatment or those initiating anticoagulation during active cancer were included. The outcome was the composite of major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding. Next, we internally validated an updated bleeding risk model accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The validation cohort consisted of 1304 patients with cancer, mean age 74.0±10.9 years, 52.2% males. In total 215 (16.5%) patients developed a first major or CRNM bleeding during a mean follow-up of 1.5 years (incidence rate; 11.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI 9.6 to 12.5)). The c-statistics of all selected bleeding risk models were low, around 0.56. Internal validation of an updated model accounting for death as competing risk showed a slightly improved c-statistic of 0.61 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.70). On updating, only age and a history of bleeding appeared to contribute to the prediction of bleeding risk. CONCLUSIONS: Existing bleeding risk models cannot accurately differentiate bleeding risk between patients. Future studies may use our updated model as a starting point for further development of bleeding risk models in patients with cancer.

Determinants of label non-adherence to non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation.

Aims: To evaluate the extent and determinants of off-label non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) dosing in newly diagnosed Dutch AF patients. Methods and results: In the DUTCH-AF registry, patients with newly diagnosed AF (<6 months) are prospectively enrolled. Label adherence to NOAC dosing was assessed using the European Medicines Agency labelling. Factors associated with off-label dosing were explored by multivariable logistic regression analyses. From July 2018 to November 2020, 4500 patients were registered. The mean age was 69.6 ± 10.5 years, and 41.5% were female. Of the 3252 patients in which NOAC label adherence could be assessed, underdosing and overdosing were observed in 4.2% and 2.4%, respectively. In 2916 (89.7%) patients with a full-dose NOAC recommendation, 4.6% were underdosed, with a similar distribution between NOACs. Independent determinants (with 95% confidence interval) were higher age [odds ratio (OR): 1.01 per year, 1.01-1.02], lower renal function (OR: 0.96 per ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.92-0.98), lower weight (OR: 0.98 per kg, 0.97-1.00), active malignancy (OR: 2.46, 1.19-5.09), anaemia (OR: 1.73, 1.08-2.76), and concomitant use of antiplatelets (OR: 4.93, 2.57-9.46). In the 336 (10.3%) patients with a reduced dose NOAC recommendation, 22.9% were overdosed, most often with rivaroxaban. Independent determinants were lower age (OR: 0.92 per year, 0.88-0.96) and lower renal function (OR: 0.98 per ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.96-1.00). Conclusion: In newly diagnosed Dutch AF patients, off-label dosing of NOACs was seen in only 6.6% of patients, most often underdosing. In this study, determinants of off-label dosing were age, renal function, weight, anaemia, active malignancy, and concomitant use of antiplatelets.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic delay in pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic delay in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) is typical, yet the proportion of patients with PE that experienced delay and for how many days is less well described, nor are determinants for such delay. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and extent of delay in diagnosing PE. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed to identify articles reporting delays in diagnosing PE. The primary outcome was mean delay (in days) or a percentage of patients with diagnostic delay (defined as PE diagnosis more than seven days after symptom onset). The secondary outcome was determinants of delay. Random-effect meta-analyses were applied to calculate a pooled estimate for mean delay and to explore heterogeneity in subgroups. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 10,933 studies, of which 24 were included in the final analysis. The pooled estimate of the mean diagnostic delay based on 12 studies was 6.3 days (95% prediction interval 2.5 to 15.8). The percentage of patients having more than seven days of delay varied between 18% and 38%. All studies assessing the determinants of coughing (n = 3), chronic lung disease (n = 6) and heart failure (n = 8) found a positive association with diagnostic delay. Similarly, all studies assessing recent surgery (n = 7) and hypotension (n = 6), as well as most studies assessing chest pain (n = 8), found a negative association with diagnostic delay of PE. CONCLUSION: Patients may have symptoms for almost one week before PE is diagnosed and in about a quarter of patients, the diagnostic delay is even longer.

Antithrombotic management of patients with atrial fibrillation-Dutch anticoagulant initiatives anno 2020.

In recent years, as more and more experience has been gained with prescribing direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), new research initiatives have emerged in the Netherlands to improve the safety and appropriateness of DOAC treatment for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). These initiatives address several contemporary unresolved issues, such as inappropriate dosing, non-adherence and the long-term management of DOAC treatment. Dutch initiatives have also contributed to the development and improvement of risk prediction models. Although fewer bleeding complications (notably intracranial bleeding) are in general seen with DOACs in comparison with vitamin K antagonists, to successfully identify patients with high bleeding risk and to tailor anticoagulant treatment accordingly to mitigate this increased bleeding risk, is one of the research aims of recent and future years. This review highlights contributions from the Netherlands that aim to address these unresolved issues regarding the anticoagulant management in AF in daily practice, and provides a narrative overview of contemporary stroke and bleeding risk assessment strategies.