Modelled and observed plastic pollution on remote Scottish beaches: The importance of local marine sources.

Beach-cleans conducted on the west coast of Scotland investigated the distribution of land- and marine-sourced litter and compared these with a particle tracking model representing the presumed principal land-based source. Modelled particles dispersed widely, even reaching the remote northwest coast, with 'hotspots' and 'coldspots' on windward and leeward coasts respectively. In beach sampling, however, land-sourced litter represented only 19% of items by count and 8% by weight, while marine-sourced litter represented 46% by count and 62% by weight. The source of the remainder could not be identified. Windward coasts had an average count of 1859 litter items per 100 m, and weight of 14,862 g per 100 m. Leeward coasts had an average count of 32 litter items per 100 m and weight of 738 g per 100 m. Field observations and model predictions were consistent in many respects for land-sourced litter, however marine-sourced litter is dominant on many coastlines.

Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography.

Landscape effects on demersal fish revealed by field observations and predictive seabed modelling.

Nature conservation and fisheries management often focus on particular seabed features that are considered vulnerable or important to commercial species. As a result, individual seabed types are protected in isolation, without any understanding of what effect the mixture of seabed types within the landscape has on ecosystem functions. Here we undertook predictive seabed modelling within a coastal marine protected area using observations from underwater stereo-video camera deployments and environmental information (depth, wave fetch, maximum tidal speeds, distance from coast and underlying geology). The effect of the predicted substratum type, extent and heterogeneity or the diversity of substrata, within a radius of 1500 m around each camera deployment of juvenile gadoid relative abundance was analysed. The predicted substratum model performed well with wave fetch and depth being the most influential predictor variables. Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) were associated with relatively more rugose substrata (Algal-gravel-pebble and seagrass) and heterogeneous landscapes, than Melanogrammus aeglefinus (haddock) or Merlangius merlangus (whiting) (sand and mud). An increase in M. merlangus relative abundance was observed with increasing substratum extent. These results reveal that landscape effects should be considered when protecting the seabed for fish and not just individual seabed types. The landscape approach used in this study therefore has important implications for marine protected area, fisheries management and monitoring advice concerning demersal fish populations.

Operational oil spill trajectory modelling using HF radar currents: A northwest European continental shelf case study.

This paper presents a novel operational oil spill modelling system based on HF radar currents, implemented in a northwest European shelf sea. The system integrates Open Modal Analysis (OMA), Short Term Prediction algorithms (STPS) and an oil spill model to simulate oil spill trajectories. A set of 18 buoys was used to assess the accuracy of the system for trajectory forecast and to evaluate the benefits of HF radar data compared to the use of currents from a hydrodynamic model (HDM). The results showed that simulated trajectories using OMA currents were more accurate than those obtained using a HDM. After 48h the mean error was reduced by 40%. The forecast skill of the STPS method was valid up to 6h ahead. The analysis performed shows the benefits of HF radar data for operational oil spill modelling, which could be easily implemented in other regions with HF radar coverage.