Enabling personalized perioperative risk prediction by using a machine-learning model based on preoperative data.

Preoperative risk assessment is essential for shared decision-making and adequate perioperative care. Common scores provide limited predictive quality and lack personalized information. The aim of this study was to create an interpretable machine-learning-based model to assess the patient's individual risk of postoperative mortality based on preoperative data to allow analysis of personal risk factors. After ethical approval, a model for prediction of postoperative in-hospital mortality based on preoperative data of 66,846 patients undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery between June 2014 and March 2020 was created with extreme gradient boosting. Model performance and the most relevant parameters were shown using receiver operating characteristic (ROC-) and precision-recall (PR-) curves and importance plots. Individual risks of index patients were presented in waterfall diagrams. The model included 201 features and showed good predictive abilities with an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.95 and an area under precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.109. The feature with the highest information gain was the preoperative order for red packed cell concentrates followed by age and c-reactive protein. Individual risk factors could be identified on patient level. We created a highly accurate and interpretable machine learning model to preoperatively predict the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality. The algorithm can be used to identify factors susceptible to preoperative optimization measures and to identify risk factors influencing individual patient risk.

How robust are the STRONGER and STIL-STRONGER studies?

In 2020, the Sugammadex vs Neostigmine for Reversal of Neuromuscular Blockade and Postoperative Pulmonary Complications (STRONGER) study provided evidence for the first time that use of sugammadex is associated with fewer postoperative pulmonary complications than use of neostigmine. In a recent publication in the British Journal of Anaesthesia, a secondary analysis of the same data, the Association Between Neuromuscular Blockade Reversal Agent Choice and Postoperative Pulmonary Complications (STIL-STRONGER) study, has produced similar evidence of the advantages of sugammadex over neostigmine in high-risk and older patients undergoing prolonged, elective surgery. Here we consider the implications of the detailed statistical analysis used in these two studies and how its limitations could possibly have enhanced the statistical differences between the two drugs with respect to postoperative pulmonary complications.

Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario in a Pandemic: Intensivists Simulate Prioritization and Triage of Scarce ICU Resources.

OBJECTIVES: Simulation and evaluation of a prioritization protocol at a German university hospital using a convergent parallel mixed methods design. DESIGN: Prospective single-center cohort study with a quantitative analysis of ICU patients and qualitative content analysis of two focus groups with intensivists. SETTING: Five ICUs of internal medicine and anesthesiology at a German university hospital. PATIENTS: Adult critically ill ICU patients ( n = 53). INTERVENTIONS: After training the attending senior ICU physicians ( n = 13) in rationing, an impending ICU congestion was simulated. All ICU patients were rated according to their likelihood to survive their acute illness (good-moderate-unfavorable). From each ICU, the two patients with the most unfavorable prognosis ( n = 10) were evaluated by five prioritization teams for triage. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients nominated for prioritization visit ( n = 10) had higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and already a longer stay at the hospital and on the ICU compared with the other patients. The order within this worst prognosis group was not congruent between the five teams. However, an in-hospital mortality of 80% confirmed the reasonable match with the lowest predicted probability of survival. Qualitative data highlighted the tremendous burden of triage and the need for a team-based consensus-oriented decision-making approach to ensure best possible care and to support professionals. Transparent communication within the teams, the hospital, and to the public was seen as essential for prioritization implementation. CONCLUSIONS: To mitigate potential bias and to reduce the emotional burden of triage, a consensus-oriented, interdisciplinary, and collaborative approach should be implemented. Prognostic comparative assessment by intensivists is feasible. The combination of long-term ICU stay and consistently high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores resulted in a greater risk for triage in patients. It remains challenging to reliably differentiate between patients with very low chances to survive and requires further conceptual and empirical research.

PITX2 DNA-Methylation: Predictive versus Prognostic Value for Anthracycline-Based Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: PITX2 DNA methylation has been shown to predict outcomes in high-risk breast cancer patients after anthracycline-based chemotherapy. To determine its prognostic versus predictive value, the impact of PITX2 DNA methylation on outcomes was studied in an untreated cohort vs. an anthracycline-treated triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The percent DNA methylation ratio (PMR) of paired-like homeodomain transcription factor 2 (PITX2) was determined by a validated methylation-specific real-time PCR test. Patient samples of routinely collected archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue and clinical data from 144 TNBC patients of 2 independent cohorts (i.e., 66 untreated patients and 78 patients treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapy) were analyzed. RESULTS: The risk of 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) increased continuously with rising PITX2 DNA methylation in the anthracycline-treated population, but it increased only slightly during 10-year follow-up time in the untreated patient population. PITX2 DNA methylation with a PMR cutoff of 2 did not show significance for poor vs. good outcomes (OS) in the untreated patient cohort (HR = 1.55; p = 0.259). In contrast, the PITX2 PMR cutoff of 2 identified patients with poor (PMR >2) vs. good (PMR ≤2) outcomes (OS) with statistical significance in the anthracycline-treated cohort (HR = 3.96; p = 0.011). The results in the subgroup of patients who did receive anthracyclines only (no taxanes) confirmed this finding (HR = 5.71; p = 0.014). CONCLUSION: In this hypothesis-generating study PITX2 DNA methylation demonstrated predominantly predictive value in anthracycline treatment in TNBC patients. The risk of poor outcome (OS) correlates with increasing PITX2 DNA methylation.

Prognostic and predictive value of PD-L1 expression and tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TiLs) in locally advanced NSCLC treated with simultaneous radiochemotherapy in the randomized, multicenter, phase III German Intergroup lung Trial (GILT).

OBJECTIVES: Immune checkpoint inhibition after radiochemotherapy (RTCT) has become a new standard of care for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer with programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression. However, little is known about the prognostic role of immune response markers in this setting. We analysed PD-L1 expression and tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TiLs) in tumour biopsies from the multicenter German Intergroup Lung Trial (GILT), which previously randomised patients with stage III NSCLC to RTCT with or without consolidation chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed tumour biopsies from patients treated in the GILT trial. PD-L1 expression was analysed using the Ventana SP263 assay and TiL score (low, intermediate, high) and pattern (excluded, inflamed, desert) were assessed. The primary endpoint of the biomarker analysis was PFS in patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% vs. PD-L1 < 1% NSCLC. Secondary endpoints explored the prognostic relevance of additional PD-L1 expression levels and TiL score and pattern. RESULTS: Biopsies were available from 92 patients treated with RTCT. Patients with available tumor tissue did not differ significantly from the whole study population. PD-L1 scores from 78 samples were available for analysis. There was no difference in PFS in the PD-L1 < 1% vs. PD-L1 ≥ 1% subgroups. TiL score was available in 66 patients. Patients with high TiL score showed favourable overall survival compared to the low TiL subgroup. This trend was most pronounced in those patients treated with consolidative chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: In this analysis, PD-L1 expression did not correlate with PFS following RTCT. However, patients with TiLs > 10% were found to have longer overall survival, especially for those patients treated with consolidation chemotherapy after the end of RTCT. Further analyses to explore the prognostic and predictive relevance of TiLs in the context of consolidative checkpoint inhibition with durvalumab are required.

SARS-CoV-2 serology increases diagnostic accuracy in CT-suspected, PCR-negative COVID-19 patients during pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, accurate diagnosis of COVID-19 is challenging. Low-dose computed tomography (CT) detects pulmonary infiltrates with high sensitivity, but findings may be non-specific. This study assesses the diagnostic value of SARS-CoV-2 serology for patients with distinct CT features but negative PCR. METHODS: IgM/IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay was performed for 107 patients with confirmed (group A: PCR + ; CT ±) and 46 patients with suspected (group B: repetitive PCR-; CT +) COVID-19, admitted to a German university hospital during the pandemic's first wave. A standardized, in-house CT classification of radiological signs of a viral pneumonia was used to assess the probability of COVID-19. RESULTS: Seroconversion rates (SR) determined on day 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 after symptom onset (SO) were 8%, 25%, 65%, 76% and 91% for group A, and 0%, 10%, 19%, 37% and 46% for group B, respectively; (p < 0.01). Compared to hospitalized patients with a non-complicated course (non-ICU patients), seroconversion tended to occur at lower frequency and delayed in patients on intensive care units. SR of patients with CT findings classified as high certainty for COVID-19 were 8%, 22%, 68%, 79% and 93% in group A, compared with 0%, 15%, 28%, 50% and 50% in group B (p < 0.01). SARS-CoV-2 serology established a definite diagnosis in 12/46 group B patients. In 88% (8/9) of patients with negative serology > 14 days after symptom onset (group B), clinico-radiological consensus reassessment revealed probable diagnoses other than COVID-19. Sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 serology was superior to PCR > 17d after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-third of patients with distinct COVID-19 CT findings are tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by PCR rendering correct diagnosis difficult. Implementation of SARS-CoV-2 serology testing alongside current CT/PCR-based diagnostic algorithms improves discrimination between COVID-19-related and non-related pulmonary infiltrates in PCR negative patients. However, sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 serology strongly depends on the time of testing and becomes superior to PCR after the 2nd week following symptom onset.

Microbiota alteration at different stages in gastric lesion progression: a population-based study in Linqu, China.

In addition to Helicobacter pylori (H.pylori), gastric microbiota may be involved in carcinogenesis process. However, the longitudinal study to assess changes in the gastric microbiota associated with the development of gastric carcinogenesis is still limited. The aim of this study is to explore dynamic microbial alterations in gastric cancer (GC) development based on a 4-year endoscopic follow-up cohort in Linqu County, China. Microbial alterations were investigated by deep sequencing of the microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene in 179 subjects with various gastric lesions, and validated in paired gastric biopsies prospectively collected before and after lesion progression and in non-progression controls. Significant differences were found in microbial diversity and community structure across various gastric lesions, with 62 candidate differential taxa between at least two lesion groups. Further validations identified Helicobacter, Bacillus, Capnocytophaga and Prevotella to be associated with lesion progression-to-dysplasia (DYS)/GC (all P < 0.05), especially for subjects progressing from intestinal metaplasia (IM) to DYS/GC. The combination of the four genera in a microbial dysbiosis index showed a significant difference after lesion progression-to-DYS/GC compared to controls (P = 0.027). The panel including the four genera identified subjects after progression-to-DYS/GC with an area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) of 0.941. Predictive significance was found before lesion progression-to-DYS/GC with an AUC = 0.776 and an even better AUC (0.927) for subjects progressing from IM to DYS/GC. Microbiota may play different roles at different stages in gastric carcinogenesis. A panel of bacterial genera associated with gastric lesions may help to assess gastric microbial dysbiosis and show potential predictive values for lesion progression. Our findings provide new clues for the microbial mechanism of H.pylori-associated carcinogenesis.

Polyscore of autonomic parameters for risk stratification of the elderly general population: the Polyscore study.

AIMS: Present society is constantly ageing and elderly frequently suffer from conditions that are difficult and/or costly to treat if detected late. Effective screening of the elderly is therefore needed so that those requiring detailed clinical work-up are identified early. We present a prospective validation of a screening strategy based on a Polyscore of seven predominantly autonomic, non-invasive risk markers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within a population-based survey in Germany (INVADE study), participants aged ≥60 years were enrolled between August 2013 and February 2015. Seven prospectively defined Polyscore components were obtained during 30-min continuous recordings of electrocardiogram, blood pressure, and respiration. Out of 1956 subjects, 168 were excluded due to atrial fibrillation, implanted pacemaker, or unsuitable recordings. All-cause mortality over a median 4-year follow-up was prospectively defined as the primary endpoint. The Polyscore divided the investigated population (n = 1788, median age: 72 years, females: 58%) into three predefined groups with low (n = 1405, 78.6%), intermediate (n = 326, 18.2%), and high risk (n = 57, 3.2%). During the follow-up, 82 (4.6%) participants died. Mortality in the Polyscore-defined risk groups was 3.4%, 7.4%, and 17.5%, respectively (P < 0.0001). The Polyscore-based mortality prediction was independent of Framingham score, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and major stroke and/or myocardial infarction history. It was particularly effective in those aged <75 years (n = 1145). CONCLUSION: The Polyscore-based mortality risk assessment from short-term non-invasive recordings is effective in the elderly general population, especially those aged 60-74 years. Implementation of a comprehensive Polyscore screening of this age group is proposed to advance preventive medical care.

Microbiota-associated Risk Factors for Clostridioides difficile Acquisition in Hospitalized Patients: A Prospective, Multicentric Study.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic C. difficile colonization is believed to predispose to subsequent C. difficile infection (CDI). While emerging insights into the role of the commensal microbiota in mediating colonization resistance against C. difficile have associated CDI with specific microbial components, corresponding prospectively collected data on colonization with C. difficile are largely unavailable. METHODS: C. difficile status was assessed by GDH EIA and real-time PCR targeting the toxin A (tcdA) and B (tcdB) genes. 16S V3 and V4 gene sequencing results from fecal samples of patients tested positive for C. difficile were analyzed by assessing alpha and beta diversity, LefSe, and the Piphillin functional inference approach to estimate functional capacity. RESULTS: 1506 patients were recruited into a prospective observational study (DRKS00005335) upon admission into one of five academic hospitals. 936 of them provided fecal samples on admission and at discharge and were thus available for longitudinal analysis. Upon hospital admission, 5.5% (83/1506) and 3.7% (56/1506) of patients were colonized with toxigenic (TCD) and non-toxigenic C. difficile (NTCD), respectively. During hospitalization, 1.7% (16/936) acquired TCD. Risk factors for acquisition of TCD included pre-existing lung diseases, lower GI endoscopy and antibiotics. Species protecting against hospital-related C. difficile acquisition included Gemmiger spp., Odoribacter splanchnicus, Ruminococcus bromii and other Ruminococcus spp. Metagenomic pathway analysis identified steroid biosynthesis as the most underrepresented metabolic pathway in patients who later acquire C. difficile colonization. CONCLUSIONS: Gemmiger spp., Odoribacter splanchnicus, Ruminococcus bromii and other Ruminococci were associated with a decreased risk of C. difficile acquisition. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: DRKS00005335.

Fixed or adjustable sling in the treatment of male stress urinary incontinence: results from a large cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fixed and adjustable male slings for the treatment of male urinary stress incontinence became increasingly popular during the last decade. Although fixed slings are recommended for the treatment of mild to moderate stress urinary incontinence, there is still a lack of evidence regarding the precise indication for an adjustable male sling. Furthermore, there is still no evidence that one type of male sling is superior to another. However, both, adjustable and fixed slings, are commonly utilized in daily clinical practice. This current investigation aims to evaluate the differences between fixed and adjustable male slings regarding indications, complication rates and functional outcome in the treatment of male stress urinary incontinence in current clinical practice. METHODS: A total of 294 patients with a fixed and 176 patients with an adjustable male sling were evaluated in a multicenter single arm cohort trial. Data collection was performed retrospectively according the medical record. Functional outcome was prospectively analyzed by standardized, validated questionnaires. Descriptive statistics was performed to present patient characteristics, complication rates and functional outcome. A chi2-test for categorical and independent t-test for continuous variables was performed to identify heterogeneity between the groups and to correlate preoperative characteristics with the outcome. A P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Patients with higher degree of urinary incontinence (P<0.001) and risk factors such as history of pelvic irradiation (P<0.001) or prior surgery for urethral stricture (P=0.032) were more likely to receive an adjustable MS. Complication rates were comparable except for infection (P=0.009, 0 vs. 2.3%) and pain (P=0.001, 1.7% vs. 11.3%) which occurred more frequently in adjustable slings. Functional outcome according validated questionnaires demonstrated no differences between fixed and adjustable male slings. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustable male slings are more frequently utilized in patients with higher degree of incontinence and risk factors compared to fixed slings. No differences could be identified between functional outcome which may imply an advantage for adjustability. However, pain and infection rates were significantly higher in adjustable MS and should be considered in the decision process for sling type.

Use of a train-of-four ratio of 0.95 versus 0.9 for tracheal extubation: an exploratory analysis of POPULAR data.

BACKGROUND: The prospective observational European multicentre cohort study (POPULAR) of postoperative pulmonary complications (NCT01865513) did not demonstrate that adherence to the recommended train-of-four ratio (TOFR) of 0.9 before extubation was associated with better pulmonary outcomes from the first postoperative day up to hospital discharge. We re-analysed the POPULAR data as to whether there existed a better threshold for TOFR recovery before extubation to reduce postoperative pulmonary complications in patients who had quantitative neuromuscular monitoring (87% acceleromyography). METHODS: To identify the optimal TOFR, the complete case cohort of patients with quantitative neuromuscular monitoring (n=3150) was split into several pairs of sub-cohorts related to TOFR values from 0.86 to 0.96; values of 0.97 and higher could not be used as the sub-cohorts were too small. The optimal TOFR was considered to have the lowest P-value from multivariate logistic regression calculated for each of the TOFR values. Data are presented as adjusted absolute risk reduction or median difference with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: Extubating patients with TOFR >0.95 rather than >0.9 reduced the adjusted risk of postoperative pulmonary complications by 3.5% (0.7-6.0%) from that reported in POPULAR (11.3%). Increasing the recommended TOFR from 0.9 to 0.95 reduced the adjusted risk by 4.9% (1.2-8.5%). Sub-cohorts resulting from 1:1 propensity score matching revealed that sugammadex had been given in higher doses by 0.30 (0.13-0.48) mg kg-1 in the sub-cohort with TOFR > 0.95. CONCLUSIONS: A post hoc analysis of patients receiving quantitative monitoring of neuromuscular function suggests that postoperative pulmonary complications are reduced for TOFR > 0.95 before tracheal extubation compared with TOFR > 0.9. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01865513.

Effect of Helicobacter pylori on gastrointestinal microbiota: a population-based study in Linqu, a high-risk area of gastric cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Gastrointestinal microbiota may be involved in Helicobacter pylori-associated gastric cancer development. The aim of this study was to explore the possible microbial mechanisms in gastric carcinogenesis and potential dysbiosis arising from H. pylori infection. DESIGN: Deep sequencing of the microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene was used to investigate alterations in paired gastric biopsies and stool samples in 58 subjects with successful and 57 subjects with failed anti-H. pylori treatment, relative to 49 H. pylori negative subjects. RESULTS: In H. pylori positive subjects, richness and Shannon indexes increased significantly (both p<0.001) after successful eradication and showed no difference to those of negative subjects (p=0.493 for richness and p=0.420 for Shannon index). Differential taxa analysis identified 18 significantly altered gastric genera after eradication. The combination of these genera into a Microbial Dysbiosis Index revealed that the dysbiotic microbiota in H. pylori positive mucosa was associated with advanced gastric lesions (chronic atrophic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia/dysplasia) and could be reversed by eradication. Strong coexcluding interactions between Helicobacter and Fusobacterium, Neisseria, Prevotella, Veillonella, Rothia were found only in advanced gastric lesion patients, and were absent in normal/superficial gastritis group. Changes in faecal microbiota included increased Bifidobacterium after successful H. pylori eradication and more upregulated drug-resistant functional orthologs after failed treatment. CONCLUSION: H. pylori infection contributes significantly to gastric microbial dysbiosis that may be involved in carcinogenesis. Successful H. pylori eradication potentially restores gastric microbiota to a similar status as found in uninfected individuals, and shows beneficial effects on gut microbiota.

Confidence interval estimation for the changepoint of treatment stratification in the presence of a qualitative covariate-treatment interaction.

The goal in stratified medicine is to administer the "best" treatment to a patient. Not all patients might benefit from the same treatment; the choice of best treatment can depend on certain patient characteristics. In this article, it is assumed that a time-to-event outcome is considered as a patient-relevant outcome and a qualitative interaction between a continuous covariate and treatment exists, ie, that patients with different values of one specific covariate should be treated differently. We suggest and investigate different methods for confidence interval estimation for the covariate value, where the treatment recommendation should be changed based on data collected in a randomized clinical trial. An adaptation of Fieller's theorem, the delta method, and different bootstrap approaches (normal, percentile-based, wild bootstrap) are investigated and compared in a simulation study. Extensions to multivariable problems are presented and evaluated. We observed appropriate confidence interval coverage following Fieller's theorem irrespective of sample size but at the cost of very wide or even infinite confidence intervals. The delta method and the wild bootstrap approach provided the smallest intervals but inadequate coverage for small to moderate event numbers, also depending on the location of the true changepoint. For the percentile-based bootstrap, wide intervals were observed, and it was slightly conservative regarding coverage, whereas the normal bootstrap did not provide acceptable results for many scenarios. The described methods were also applied to data from a randomized clinical trial comparing two treatments for patients with symptomatic, severe carotid artery stenosis, considering patient's age as predictive marker.

A Simulation Study Comparing Different Statistical Approaches for the Identification of Predictive Biomarkers.

Identification of relevant biomarkers that are associated with a treatment effect is one requirement for adequate treatment stratification and consequently to improve health care by administering the best available treatment to an individual patient. Various statistical approaches were proposed that allow assessing the interaction between a continuous covariate and treatment. Nevertheless, categorization of a continuous covariate, e.g., by splitting the data at the observed median value, appears to be very prevalent in practice. In this article, we present a simulation study considering data as observed in a randomized clinical trial with a time-to-event outcome performed to compare properties of such approaches, namely, Cox regression with linear interaction, Multivariable Fractional Polynomials for Interaction (MFPI), Local Partial-Likelihood Bootstrap (LPLB), and the Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot (STEPP) method, and of strategies based on categorization of continuous covariates (splitting the covariate at the median, splitting at quartiles, and using an "optimal" split by maximizing a corresponding test statistic). In different scenarios with no interactions, linear interactions or nonlinear interactions, type I error probability and the power for detection of a true covariate-treatment interaction were estimated. The Cox regression approach was more efficient than the other methods for scenarios with monotonous interactions, especially when the number of observed events was small to moderate. When patterns of the biomarker-treatment interaction effect were more complex, MFPI and LPLB performed well compared to the other approaches. Categorization of data generally led to a loss of power, but for very complex patterns, splitting the data into multiple categories might help to explore the nature of the interaction effect. Consequently, we recommend application of statistical methods developed for assessment of interactions between continuous biomarkers and treatment instead of arbitrary or data-driven categorization of continuous covariates.

Effects of a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy to prevent excessive gestational weight gain in routine care - the cluster-randomised GeliS trial.

BACKGROUND: Excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) leads to obstetric complications, maternal postpartum weight retention and an increased risk of offspring obesity. The GeliS study examines the effect of a lifestyle intervention during pregnancy on the proportion of women with excessive GWG and pregnancy and obstetric complications, as well as the long-term risk of maternal and infant obesity. METHODS: The GeliS study is a cluster-randomised multicentre controlled trial including 2286 women with a pre-pregnancy BMI between 18.5 and 40.0 kg/m2 recruited from gynaecological and midwifery practices prior to the end of the 12th week of gestation in five Bavarian regions. In the intervention regions, four lifestyle counselling sessions covering a balanced healthy diet, regular physical activity and self-monitoring of weight gain were performed by trained healthcare providers alongside routine pre- and postnatal practice visits. In the control regions, leaflets with general recommendations for a healthy lifestyle during pregnancy were provided. RESULTS: The intervention did not result in a significant reduction of women showing excessive GWG (adjusted OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.66-1.38, p = 0.789), with 45.1% and 45.7% of women in the intervention and control groups, respectively, gaining weight above the Institute of Medicine recommendations. Gestational diabetes mellitus was diagnosed in 10.8% and 11.1% of women in the intervention and control groups, respectively (p = 0.622). Mean birth weight and length were slightly lower in the intervention group (3313 ± 536 g vs. 3363 ± 498 g, p = 0.020; 51.1 ± 2.7 cm vs. 51.6 ± 2.5 cm, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In the setting of routine prenatal care, lifestyle advice given by trained healthcare providers was not successful in limiting GWG and pregnancy complications. Nevertheless, the potential long-term effects of the intervention remain to be assessed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01958307 , ClinicalTrials.gov, retrospectively registered October 9, 2013.

Post-anaesthesia pulmonary complications after use of muscle relaxants (POPULAR): a multicentre, prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Results from retrospective studies suggest that use of neuromuscular blocking agents during general anaesthesia might be linked to postoperative pulmonary complications. We therefore aimed to assess whether the use of neuromuscular blocking agents is associated with postoperative pulmonary complications. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective observational cohort study. Patients were recruited from 211 hospitals in 28 European countries. We included patients (aged ≥18 years) who received general anaesthesia for any in-hospital procedure except cardiac surgery. Patient characteristics, surgical and anaesthetic details, and chart review at discharge were prospectively collected over 2 weeks. Additionally, each patient underwent postoperative physical examination within 3 days of surgery to check for adverse pulmonary events. The study outcome was the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications from the end of surgery up to postoperative day 28. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for surgical factors and patients' preoperative physical status, providing adjusted odds ratios (ORadj) and adjusted absolute risk reduction (ARRadj). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01865513. FINDINGS: Between June 16, 2014, and April 29, 2015, data from 22 803 patients were collected. The use of neuromuscular blocking agents was associated with an increased incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications in patients who had undergone general anaesthesia (1658 [7·6%] of 21 694); ORadj 1·86, 95% CI 1·53-2·26; ARRadj -4·4%, 95% CI -5·5 to -3·2). Only 2·3% of high-risk surgical patients and those with adverse respiratory profiles were anaesthetised without neuromuscular blocking agents. The use of neuromuscular monitoring (ORadj 1·31, 95% CI 1·15-1·49; ARRadj -2·6%, 95% CI -3·9 to -1·4) and the administration of reversal agents (1·23, 1·07-1·41; -1·9%, -3·2 to -0·7) were not associated with a decreased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Neither the choice of sugammadex instead of neostigmine for reversal (ORadj 1·03, 95% CI 0·85-1·25; ARRadj -0·3%, 95% CI -2·4 to 1·5) nor extubation at a train-of-four ratio of 0·9 or more (1·03, 0·82-1·31; -0·4%, -3·5 to 2·2) was associated with better pulmonary outcomes. INTERPRETATION: We showed that the use of neuromuscular blocking drugs in general anaesthesia is associated with an increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Anaesthetists must balance the potential benefits of neuromuscular blockade against the increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. FUNDING: European Society of Anaesthesiology.

Clinical performance of an analytically validated assay in comparison to microarray technology to assess PITX2 DNA-methylation in breast cancer.

Significant evidence has accumulated that DNA-methylation of the paired-like homeodomain transcription factor 2 (PITX2) gene can serve as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in breast cancer. PITX2 DNA-methylation data have been obtained so far from microarray and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based research tests. The availability of an analytically validated in vitro methylation-specific real-time PCR assay format (therascreen PITX2 RGQ PCR assay) intended for the determination of the percent methylation ratio (PMR) in the (PITX2) promoter 2 prompted us to investigate whether the clinical performance of these different assay systems generate comparable clinical outcome data. Mathematically converted microarray data of a previous breast cancer study (n = 204) into PMR values leads to a PITX2 cut-off value at PMR 14.73. Recalculation of the data to experimentally equivalent PMRs with the PCR PITX2 assay leads to a cut-off value at PMR 12 with the highest statistical significance. This cut-off predicts outcome of high-risk breast cancer patients to adjuvant anthracycline-based chemotherapy (n = 204; Hazard Ratio 2.48; p < 0.001) comparable to microarray generated results (n = 204; Hazard ratio 2.32; p < 0.0001). The therascreen PITX2 RGQ PCR assay is an analytically validated test with high reliability and robustness and predicts outcome of high-risk breast cancer patients to anthracycline-based chemotherapy.

Ice water test in multiple sclerosis: A pilot trial.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the significance of the ice water test in patients with multiple sclerosis and to evaluate a novel ice water test nomogram in a large patient cohort. METHODS: A total of 201 ice water tests of patients with multiple sclerosis were retrospectively evaluated. Incontinence episodes in 24 h and sex were correlated with the ice water test. Furthermore, an ice water test nomogram was developed in order to categorize the detrusor overactivity in severity degrees. Descriptive statistics were carried out for population characteristics. Correlations of categorical variables were calculated by the χ2 -test. The independent t-test was carried out for correlations of continuous variables. Furthermore, the data were evaluated in the novel ice water test nomogram. RESULTS: The patient population consisted of 141 (70.1%) women and 60 (39.9%) men. A clinically positive ice water test (maximum detrusor pressure >15 cmH2 O) was identified in 75 patients (37.3%). Significantly more men presented a clinically positive ice water test (P = 0.006). In 16.5%, the ice water test unmasked an involuntary detrusor contraction, although routine cystometry did not show any detrusor overactivity. The ice water test nomogram could be successfully applied. The incontinence episodes and maximum detrusor pressure correlated positively with a higher categorization in the nomogram. Therapeutic interventions and follow-up controls could be successfully illustrated by the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: The ice water test is a simple tool for unmasking non-identified detrusor overactivity in neurogenic bladder dysfunction. A severity categorization of the detrusor overactivity can be facilitated by the use of the ice water test nomogram. After further validation, the ice water test could be ultimately used in future as objective assessment for bladder dysfunction.

Association Between Gut Microbiota and Helicobacter pylori-Related Gastric Lesions in a High-Risk Population of Gastric Cancer.

Eradication of Helicobacter pylori has been found to be effective for gastric cancer prevention, but uncertainties remain about the possible adverse consequences such as the potential microbial dysbiosis. In our study, we investigated the association between gut microbiota and H. pylori-related gastric lesions in 47 subjects by deep sequencing of microbial 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene in fecal samples. The dominant phyla in fecal samples were Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, and Proteobacteria with average relative abundances of 54.77, 31.37 and 12.91%, respectively. Microbial diversity analysis showed that observed species and Shannon index were increased in subjects with past or current H. pylori infection compared with negative subjects. As for the differential bacteria, the average relative abundance of Bacteroidetes was found to significantly decrease from H. pylori negative (66.16%) to past infection group (33.01%, p = 0.007), as well as from normal (76.49%) to gastritis (56.04%) and metaplasia subjects (46.83%, p = 0.027). For Firmicutes and Proteobacteria, the average relative abundances showed elevated trends in the past H. pylori infection group (47.11, 20.53%) compared to negative group (23.44, 9.05%, p = 0.068 and 0.246, respectively), and similar increased trends were also found from normal (18.23, 5.05%) to gastritis (35.31, 7.23%, p = 0.016 and 0.294, respectively) or metaplasia subjects (32.33, 20.07%, both p < 0.05). These findings suggest that the alterations of fecal microbiota, especially the dominant phyla of Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria, may be involved in the process of H. pylori-related gastric lesion progression and provide hints for future evaluation of microbial changes after H. pylori eradication.