Prediction of delayed cerebral ischemia followed aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. A machine-learning based study.

INTRODUCTION: Delayed Cerebral Ischemia (DCI) is a significant complication following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) that can lead to poor outcomes. Machine learning techniques have shown promise in predicting DCI and improving risk stratification. METHODS: In this study, we aimed to develop machine learning models to predict the occurrence of DCI in patients with aSAH. Patient data, including various clinical variables and co-factors, were collected. Six different machine learning models, including logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were trained and evaluated using performance metrics such as accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1 score. RESULTS: After data augmentation, the random forest model demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.85. The multilayer perceptron neural network model achieved an accuracy of 0.93 and an F1 score of 0.85, making it the best performing model. The presence of positive clinical vasospasm was identified as the most important feature for predicting DCI. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the potential of machine learning models in predicting the occurrence of DCI in patients with aSAH. The multilayer perceptron model showed excellent performance, indicating its utility in risk stratification and clinical decision-making. However, further validation and refinement of the models are necessary to ensure their generalizability and applicability in real-world settings. Machine learning techniques have the potential to enhance patient care and improve outcomes in aSAH, but their implementation should be accompanied by careful evaluation and validation.

Phosphoglycerate kinase is a central leverage point in Parkinson's Disease driven neuronal metabolic deficits.

Phosphoglycerate kinase 1 (PGK1), the first ATP producing glycolytic enzyme, has emerged as a therapeutic target for Parkinson's Disease (PD), since a potential enhancer of its activity was reported to significantly lower PD risk. We carried out a suppressor screen of hypometabolic synaptic deficits and demonstrated that PGK1 is a rate limiting enzyme in nerve terminal ATP production. Increasing PGK1 expression in mid-brain dopamine neurons protected against hydroxy-dopamine driven striatal dopamine nerve terminal dysfunction in-vivo and modest changes in PGK1 activity dramatically suppressed hypometabolic synapse dysfunction in vitro. Furthermore, PGK1 is cross-regulated by PARK7 (DJ-1), a PD associated molecular chaperone, and synaptic deficits driven by PARK20 (Synaptojanin-1) can be reversed by increasing local synaptic PGK1 activity. These data indicate that nerve terminal bioenergetic deficits may underly a spectrum of PD susceptibilities and the identification of PGK1 as the limiting enzyme in axonal glycolysis provides a mechanistic underpinning for therapeutic protection.

Bidirectional Regulation of Motor Circuits Using Magnetogenetic Gene Therapy.

Regulating the activity of discrete neuronal populations in living mammals after delivery of modified ion channels can be used to map functional circuits and potentially treat neurological diseases. Here we report a novel suite of magnetogenetic tools, based on a single anti-ferritin nanobody-TRPV1 receptor fusion protein, which regulated neuronal activity in motor circuits when exposed to magnetic fields. AAV-mediated delivery of a cre-dependent nanobody-TRPV1 calcium channel into the striatum of adenosine 2a (A2a) receptor-cre driver mice led to restricted expression within D2 neurons, resulting in motor freezing when placed in a 3T MRI or adjacent to a transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) device. Functional imaging and fiber photometry both confirmed focal activation of the target region in response to the magnetic fields. Expression of the same construct in the striatum of wild-type mice along with a second injection of an AAVretro expressing cre into the globus pallidus led to similar circuit specificity and motor responses. Finally, a mutation was generated to gate chloride and inhibit neuronal activity. Expression of this variant in subthalamic nucleus (STN) projection neurons in PitX2-cre parkinsonian mice resulted in reduced local c-fos expression and a corresponding improvement in motor rotational behavior during magnetic field exposure. These data demonstrate that AAV delivery of magnetogenetic constructs can bidirectionally regulate activity of specific neuronal circuits non-invasively in vivo using clinically available devices for both preclinical analysis of circuit effects on behavior and potential human clinical translation.

Ethnic-Associated Phenotype Variations in Moyamoya Cerebrovascular Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Moyamoya has been extensively described in East Asian populations, and despite its accepted clinical presentation and course, it is fundamental to describe major cerebrovascular complications in other ethnically diverse samples. Hence, we sought to determine if distinct ethnic groups are at higher risk of developing stroke using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. METHODS: We included all moyamoya patients admitted from January 2013 until December 2018 in the NIS database. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the risk of developing stroke and poor outcomes in different races compared to white patients. RESULTS: Out of the 6093 admissions with diagnosis of moyamoya disease that were captured, 2,520 were white (41.6%), 2,078 were African American (AA) (34.1%), 721 were Hispanic (11.8%), and 496 were Asian (8.14%). For arterial ischemic stroke (AIS), we found that AA race had a significantly reduced risk of AIS compared to white patients (odds ratio = 0.8, 95% confidence interval: 0.7-0.9, p = 0.031). While being Hispanic or Asian significantly increased 1.5 and 2-fold the risk of hemorrhagic stroke. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the unique features and phenotypes of moyamoya cases among different ethnicities. While possibly AA are protected from developing AIS due to underlying causes of moyamoya such as sickle cell disease, Asians seems to be more susceptible to hemorrhagic stroke.

State-of-the-art review of the clinical research on menopause and hormone replacement therapy association with Parkinson's disease: What meta-analysis studies cannot tell us.

The menopause is a midlife endocrinological process that greatly affects women's central nervous system functions. Over the last 2 decades numerous clinical studies have addressed the influence of ovarian hormone decline on neurological disorders like Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease. However, the findings in support of a role for age at menopause, type of menopause and hormone replacement therapy on Parkinson's disease onset and its core features show inconsistencies due to the heterogeneity in the study design. Here, we provide a unified overview of the clinical literature on the influence of menopause and ovarian hormones on Parkinson's disease. We highlight the possible sources of conflicting evidence and gather considerations for future observational clinical studies that aim to explore the neurological impact of menopause-related features in Parkinson's disease.

Arterial Ischemic Stroke in Moyamoya Patients Who Underwent Vaginal Delivery and Cesarean Section.

BACKGROUND: Moyamoya disease (MMD) is characterized by stenosis, occlusion, and formation of aberrant collaterals of brain vessels. This derangement in the brain vessels in conditions associated with changes in intracranial pressure can lead to arterial ischemic stroke (AIS). A major challenge for stroke physicians is to recommend the safest method of delivery for pregnant patients with MMD. Using a large national database, our objective in this study was to analyze the risk of AIS in patients with MMD who underwent vaginal delivery (VD) and cesarean section (C-section). METHODS: We used the National Inpatient Sample database for the years 2013-2018 to identify patients with a diagnosis of MMD who underwent VD or C-section. Multiple logistic regression was performed to assess the risk of AIS in VD versus C-section. RESULTS: Of 2166 female patients with MMD, 97 underwent VD or C-section: 49 (50.51%) underwent VD, and 48 (49.48%) underwent C-section. The analysis of outcomes between VD and C-section showed a higher prevalence of AIS after VD compared with C-section (8.2% vs 6.3%, P = 0.716). The multivariate analysis for AIS showed that VD is not an independent risk factor compared with C-section (odds ratio = 2.1, 95% CI = 0.3-13.3, P = 0.417). CONCLUSIONS: Our data did not find evidence that VD and C-section are risk factors for AIS in pregnant patients with MMD.

Thromboelastography (TEG) results are predictive of ischemic and hemorrhagic complications in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms treated with flow diversion.

INTRODUCTION: Flow diversion is an effective treatment modality for intracranial aneurysms but is associated with ischemic and hemorrhagic complications. Patients treated with flow diversion require dual antiplatelet therapy and subsequent platelet function tests. At our institution, Thromboelastography with Platelet Mapping (TEG-PM) is the test of choice. The primary objective of this study was to identify TEG parameters that are predictive of postoperative complications in patients treated with elective flow diversion. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 118 patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms treated with flow diversion. Data was collected via chart review. Bivariate analyses were performed to identify significant variables in patients who suffered an ischemic stroke or a groin hematoma. ROC curves were constructed for the TEG parameters with statistical significance. Bivariate analyses were repeated using dichotomized TEG results. RESULTS: Patients who experienced a symptomatic ischemic stroke had a history of stroke (p value = 0.007), larger aneurysm neck width (p value = 0.017), and a higher alpha angle (p value = 0.013). Cut off point for ischemic complication is 63° on ROC curve with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 65%. Patients who experienced a groin hematoma were no different from their healthy peers but had a lower alpha angle (p value = 0.033). Cut off point for hemorrhagic complication is 53.3° with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 67%. CONCLUSION: The Alpha Angle parameter of TEG-PM has a sizeable predictive ability for both ischemic complications of the central nervous system and hemorrhagic complications of the access site after elective flow diversion.

Analyzing the Effects of Demographic Differences on Patient Outcomes Following Non-pyogenic Intracranial Venous Thrombosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of racial and demographic differences on the short-term outcome of patients following a non-pyogenic cerebral venous thrombosis. METHODS: Data from the National Inpatient Sample were gathered from the years 2013 to 2016. Patients who had a non-pyogenic cerebral venous thrombosis were identified. Admissions of patients between different racial groups were compared. Outcome measures included inpatient mortality, length of stay (LOS), all patients refined diagnosis-related group (APR-DRG) severity and mortality risk scores, non-routine discharges, total charges, sepsis, and urinary tract infections (UTIs). RESULTS: We identified 973 patients who were admitted with a non-pyogenic cerebral venous thrombosis between 2013 and 2016. Of those, 65.7% were classified as White, 15.6% as Black, 14.1% as Hispanic, and 4.6% as Asian or Pacific Islander. Compared to White patients, Black patients were found to have a higher severity score upon admission (2.94 ± 0.818 vs 2.77 ± 0.839; p = 0.025) as well as a longer adjusted LOS (8.085 ± 5.917 vs 6.503 ± 5.552; p = 0.004) and log LOS (0.934 ± 0.507 vs 0.773 ± 0.521; p = 0.001). On initial analysis, we found that older age, elevated WBC count, income group, anemia, and an expected primary payer of Medicare/Medicaid were significantly associated with Black race and also worse outcomes. When controlling for these variables using multivariate regression, older age, lower income group, and elevated WBC count were not significantly associated with any measures of outcome. The race was no longer associated with a higher APR-DRG severity score but was still significant for adjusted LOS (p = 0.001) and adjusted log LOS (p = 0.004). Lastly, we noted that anemia and the expected primary payer of Medicare/Medicaid were both independently and significantly associated with APR-DRG severity score (p = 0.003; p = 0.010) and the adjusted log LOS (p = 0.019; p = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Black patients admitted with a non-pyogenic intracranial venous thrombosis have significantly longer LOS compared to White patients. Anemia and Medicare/Medicaid as the primary expected payer also seem to play a role in longer LOS, as well as the severity of the case.

Western Moyamoya Phenotype: A Scoping Review.

Moyamoya, a rare angiographic finding, is characterized by chronic and progressive stenosis at the terminal end of the internal carotid artery, followed by collateralization of the cerebral vasculature at the base of the skull. Coined by Suzuki and Takaku in 1969, the term "moyamoya" means a "puff of smoke" in Japanese, a reference to the angiographic appearance of moyamoya collateralization. Moyamoya is most commonly found in East Asian countries, where much governmental and civilian effort has been expended to characterize this unique disease process. However, despite its rarity, the occurrence of moyamoya in Western countries is associated with significant divergence regarding incidence, gender, sex, age at diagnosis, clinical presentation, and outcomes. Here, we attempted to review the Western literature on moyamoya presentation using the PubMed database to characterize the Western phenotype of moyamoya. We were guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR). We reviewed papers generated from a search with keywords "moyamoya case report," those reported from a Western institution, and those reported on a relevant association. Our scoping review demonstrated various clinical associations with moyamoya. Moreover, we summarized the demographic profile and clinical symptomatology, as well as reported disease associations to better elucidate the Western phenotype of moyamoya.

Younger age at intracranial aneurysms rupture among patients with opioid use disorders.

BACKGROUND: Association between opioid abuse and intracranial aneurysms rupture has been suggested in recent studies. However, these observations are limited to single center studies and could be benefited from validation in larger cohorts. Hence, we aimed to study the association between age at aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and opioid use disorders (OUD) using a large, national database. METHODS: This study was conducted using the 2016 and 2017 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) with ICD-10 codes. Cohorts were categorized as "Non-users", "OUD", and "Multi-drug users". Linear regression models were used to examine the association between OUD and multi-drug users with age at aneurysm rupture, and multiple logistic regression models were used for the association between in-hospital mortality and drug abuse. RESULTS: A total of 17,391 patients with aSAH were captured in the 2016 and 2017 NIS database. Out of these patients, 235 (1.4%) were included in the OUD group and 59 (0.3%) in the multi-drug users' group. Adjusted linear regression showed an unstandardized coefficient (UC) = -12.3 [95%CI = -14.4/-10.1, p < 0.001] for OUD patients and an UC = -16.8 [95%CI = -21.1/-12.5, p < 0.001] for multi-drug users, compared to non-users. The risk of in-hospital mortality was significantly increased in drug user, OR = 1.47 [95%CI: 1.1-2.01, p = 0.017] for OUD patients, and OR = 2.35 [95%CI: 1.35-4.11, p = 0.003] for multi-drug users. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first national study to examine the association between age at intracranial aneurysms rupture and opioid abuse. aSAH patients with history of OUD were 12 years younger compared to non-users, when OUD was combined with other drugs, the age at aneurysms rupture was 17 years younger. Further elucidation regarding the mechanisms by which opioids triggers aneurysms rupture and predispose to worsen outcomes following aSAH is required, as well as appropriate prevention, and management strategies for aSAH patients with OUD.

Classical Risk Factors for Ischemic Stroke are not Associated with Inpatient Post-Stroke Mortality in Sickle Cell Disease.

OBJECTIVES: Sickle cell disease is a common haemoglobinopathy that significantly increases the risk of ischemic stroke. Because the risk factors for ischemic stroke onset and mortality in non-sickle cell disease patients have been largely elucidated, this paper aims to analyze risk factors for ischemic stroke mortality in sickle cell disease patients, which remain largely unknown. MATERIALS/METHODS: The National Inpatient Sample database (2016-2017) was used to develop a multivariable regression model for risk quantification of known ischemic stroke risk factors for in-hospital mortality in ischemic stroke patients with and without sickle cell disease. RESULTS: Classical risk factors for ischemic stroke onset, including ischemic heart disease, carotid artery disease, lipidemias, hypertension, obesity, tobacco use, atrial fibrillation, personal or family history of stroke, congenital heart defects, congestive heart failure, cardiac valve disorder, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus are associated with in-hospital mortality in non-sickle cell patients (p < 0.05). However, no significant association was found between these stroke risk factors and in-hospital mortality in sickle cell disease patients presenting with ischemic stroke (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: While the classical risk factors for stroke onset are associated with in-hospital mortality in non-sickle cell stroke patients, they are not associated with in-hospital mortality in sickle cell stroke patients.

Moyamoya Disease and Syndrome: A National Inpatient Study of Ischemic Stroke Predictors.

OBJECTIVES: Ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke are the most common sequelae of the Moyamoya variants [Moyamoya disease (MMD) and syndrome (MMS)]. We sought to determine the rates of stroke subtypes and the predictive factors of arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) utilizing a large data sample of MMD and MMS patients in the US. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We queried the 2016 and 2017 National Inpatient Sample database for Moyamoya diagnosis plus any of the following associated conditions; sickle cell disease, neurofibromatosis type 1, cranial radiation therapy or Down Syndrome. Multivariate regression determined the risk factors for AIS onset in MMD and MMS. RESULTS: 2323 patients with a diagnosis of Moyamoya were included; 668 (28.8%) patients were classified as MMS and 1655 (71.2%) as MMD. AIS was the most common presentation in both cohorts; however, MMD patients had higher rates of AIS (20.4 vs 6%, p < 0.001), hemorrhagic stroke (7.4vs 2.5%, p < 0.001), and TIA (3.3vs 0.9%, p = 0.001) compared to MMS patients. Multivariate analysis showed that increasing age [OR = 1.017 95%CI: 1.008-1.03, p < 0.001], lipidemia [OR = 1.32 95%CI: 1.02-1.74, p = 0.049], and current smoking status [OR = 1.43 95%CI: 1.04-1.97, p = 0.026] were independent risk factors for AIS in MMD patients, whereas hypertension [OR = 2.61 95%CI: 1.29-5.25, p = 0.007] and African-American race [OR = 0.274, 95%CI: .117-.64, p = 0.003] were independent predictors in the MMS cohort. CONCLUSION: AIS is the most common presentation in both, MMD and MMS. However, MMD patients had higher rates of stroke events compared to MMS. Risk factors for AIS in MMD included increasing age, lipidemia and smoking status, whereas in MMS hypertension was the only independent risk factor.

Sterile Leukocytosis Predicts Hemorrhagic Transformation in Arterial Ischemic Stroke: A National Inpatient Sample Study.

OBJECTIVE: Hemorrhage transformation (HT) is a known complication of arterial ischemic stroke (AIS). In addition, it is known that the increase of proinflammatory immune cells in the brain tissue after AIS predict worse outcomes. However, it is not clear whether inflammation due to preceding or post-stroke infections affect outcomes and moreover, if systemic inflammatory markers could be useful as a clinical prediction tool for HT post-stroke. Therefore, our objective was to assess the association between systemic pro-inflammatory profile in AIS patients with HT and in-hospital mortality that did not course with acute infections during hospitalization. METHODS: This study was conducted using the 2016 and 2017 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) with International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between HT and in-hospital mortality with pro-inflammatory anomalies of white blood cells (WBCs) in AIS patients. Exclusion criteria comprised patients with under 18 years old, and with a diagnosis of gastrointestinal, urogenital, respiratory infection, bacteremia, viral infection, sepsis, or fever. RESULTS: A total of 212,356 patients with AIS were included in the analysis. 422 (0.2%) patients had a HT and 10,230 (4.8%) patients died during hospitalization. The most common WBC pro-inflammatory marker was leukocytosis with 6.9% (n=29/422) of HT and 5.5% (n=560/10,230) of patients that died during hospitalization. After adjusting for socio-demographic, comorbidities and treatment factors, leukocytosis was found to be an independent risk factor for both outcomes, HT [OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1-2.3, p=0.024] and, in-hospital mortality [OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6, p < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: Sterile leukocytosis is a potential clinical prediction tool to determine which patients are at higher risk of developing HT and die during hospitalization.

Peripheral Leukocytosis Predicts Cognitive Decline but Not Behavioral Disturbances: A Nationwide Study of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Peripheral and central nervous system inflammation have been linked to the classic symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, it remains unclear whether the analysis of routine systemic inflammatory markers could represent a useful prediction tool to identify clinical subtypes in patients with Parkinson's and Alzheimer's at higher risk of dementia-associated symptoms, such as behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD). METHODS: We performed a multivariate logistic regression using the 2016 and 2017 National Inpatient Sample with International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes to assess if pro-inflammatory white blood cells (WBCs) anomalies correlate with dementia and BPSD in patients with these disorders. RESULTS: We found that leukocytosis was the most common WBC inflammatory marker identified in 3.9% of Alzheimer's and 3.3% Parkinson's patients. Leukocytosis was also found to be an independent risk factor for Parkinson's dementia. Multivariate analysis of both cohorts showed that leukocytosis is significantly decreased in patients with BPSD compared to patients without BPSD. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest a link between leukocytosis and the pathophysiology of cognitive dysfunction in both PD and AD. A better understanding of the role of systemic neuroinflammation on these devastating neurodegenerative disorders may facilitate the development of cost-effective blood biomarkers for patient's early diagnosis and more accurate prognosis.

Neurologic Syndromes Predict Higher In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is protean in its manifestations, affecting nearly every organ system. However, nervous system involvement and its effect on disease outcome are poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to determine whether neurologic syndromes are associated with increased risk of inpatient mortality. METHODS: A total of 581 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, neurologic involvement, and brain imaging were compared to hospitalized non-neurologic patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Four patterns of neurologic manifestations were identified: acute stroke, new or recrudescent seizures, altered mentation with normal imaging, and neuro-COVID-19 complex. Factors present on admission were analyzed as potential predictors of in-hospital mortality, including sociodemographic variables, preexisting comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory values, and pattern of neurologic manifestations. Significant predictors were incorporated into a disease severity score. Patients with neurologic manifestations were matched with patients of the same age and disease severity to assess the risk of death. RESULTS: A total of 4,711 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were admitted to one medical system in New York City during a 6-week period. Of these, 581 (12%) had neurologic issues of sufficient concern to warrant neuroimaging. These patients were compared to 1,743 non-neurologic patients with COVID-19 matched for age and disease severity admitted during the same period. Patients with altered mentation (n = 258, p = 0.04, odds ratio [OR] 1.39, confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.86) or radiologically confirmed stroke (n = 55, p = 0.001, OR 3.1, CI 1.65-5.92) had a higher risk of mortality than age- and severity-matched controls. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of altered mentation or stroke on admission predicts a modest but significantly higher risk of in-hospital mortality independent of disease severity. While other biomarker factors also predict mortality, measures to identify and treat such patients may be important in reducing overall mortality of COVID-19.

Gram-Negative Ventriculostomy-Associated Infections Predict Shunt Dependency in Stroke Diagnoses and Other Brain Injuries.

BACKGROUND: Several predictors have been studied for shunt dependency after stroke and other brain injuries. However, little is known about the association between ventriculostomy-associated infections (VAIs) and impaired cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) outflow. Moreover, gram-negative (GN) VAIs induce a potent neuroinflammatory process and are clinically challenging to treat. OBJECTIVE: To assess if GN-VAIs predict ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS) dependency. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of postprocedure infection rates was performed in 586 patients with external ventricle drainage (EVD) placed on site between 2012 and 2018. We collected sex, age, stroke and nonstroke related, location of EVD placement, type of hospital, EVD duration, and EVD exchange. RESULTS: Among 586 patients requiring an EVD, 55 developed a VAI. Most were caused by gram-positive (GP) pathogens (61.8%). A total of 120 patients required a conversion from EVD to VPS. Patients with VAIs had higher rates of VPS placement (49.09% vs 17.65%, P < .001), whereas patients with GN-VAIs had significantly higher rates of EVD conversion to VPS (77.78% vs 35.29%, P = .012) compared with GP-VAIs. The multivariate analysis showed that GN-VAIs were an independent predictor for shunt dependency (odds ratio = 12.896; 95% CI 3.407-48.82, P < .001). In receiver operating characteristics analysis, those less than 44.5 yr of age and more than 12 d of EVD duration were identified as the best cutoff values to discriminate the development of GN-VAI. CONCLUSION: Patients who experience a GN VAI are in greater risk of impaired CSF outflow, thus requiring VPS placement.

The effect of race on composite thrombotic events in patients with COVID-19.

COVID-19 associated coagulopathy and mortality related to thrombotic complications have been suggested as biological mediators in racial disparities related to COVID-19. We studied the adjusted prevalence of acute ischemic stroke, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and deep venous thrombosis stratified by race in hospitalized patients in one New York City borough during the local COVID-19 surge. The multi-racial cohort included 4299 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 9% of whom were white, 40% black, 41% Hispanic and 10% Asian or other. We found a 6.1% prevalence of composite thrombotic events. There were no significant race-specific differences in thrombotic events when adjusting for basic demographics, socioeconomic factors, medical comorbidities or biomarkers using a stepwise regression model. We therefore found no evidence that the racial disparities related to COVID-19, and specifically thrombotic complications, are caused by biological differences in race.

A novel severity score to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 is commonly mild and self-limiting, but in a considerable portion of patients the disease is severe and fatal. Determining which patients are at high risk of severe illness or mortality is essential for appropriate clinical decision making. We propose a novel severity score specifically for COVID-19 to help predict disease severity and mortality. 4711 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. We derived a risk model using the first half of the cohort (n = 2355 patients) by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The severity score was validated in a second half of 2356 patients. Mortality incidence was 26.4% in the derivation cohort and 22.4% in the validation cohort. A COVID-19 severity score ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of age, oxygen saturation, mean arterial pressure, blood urea nitrogen, C-Reactive protein, and the international normalized ratio was developed. A ROC curve analysis was performed in the derivation cohort achieved an AUC of 0.824 (95% CI 0.814-0.851) and an AUC of 0.798 (95% CI 0.789-0.818) in the validation cohort. Furthermore, based on the risk categorization the probability of mortality was 11.8%, 39% and 78% for patient with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) COVID-19 severity score. This developed and validated novel COVID-19 severity score will aid physicians in predicting mortality during surge periods.

Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 and large vessel occlusion.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the mortality risk of patients with emergent large vessel occlusion (ELVO) and COVID-19 during the pandemic. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of two cohorts of consecutive patients with ELVO admitted to a quaternary hospital from March 1 to April 17, 2020. We abstracted data from electronic health records on baseline, biomarker profiles, key time points, quality measures and radiographic data. RESULTS: Of 179 patients admitted with ischemic stroke, 36 had ELVO. Patients with COVID-19 and ELVO had a higher risk of mortality during the pandemic versus patients without COVID-19 (OR 16.63, p = 0.004). An age-based sub-analysis showed in-hospital mortality in 60% of COVID-19 positive patients between 61-70 years-old, 66.7% in between 51-60 years-old, 50% in between 41-50 years-old and 33.3% in between 31-40 years old. Patients that presented with pulmonary symptoms at time of stroke presentation had 71.4% mortality rate. 27.3% of COVID-19 patients presenting with ELVO had a good outcome at discharge (mRS 0-2). Patients with a history of cigarette smoking (p = 0.003), elevated d-dimer (p = 0.007), failure to recanalize (p = 0.007), and elevated ferritin levels (p = 0.006) had an increased risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients with COVID-19 and ELVO had a significantly higher risk for mortality compared to COVID-19 negative patients with ELVO. A small percentage of COVID-19 ELVO patients had good outcomes. Age greater than 60 and pulmonary symptoms at presentation have higher risk for mortality. Other risk factors for mortality were a history of cigarette smoking, elevated, failure to recanalize, elevated d-dimer and ferritin levels.