Impact of multiple primary cancers on overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

The increasing occurrence of multiple primary cancers (MPC) is a long-term trend, but the prevalence of MPC in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its impact on overall survival (OS) remains unknown. We retrospectively analyzed 497 patients with HCC treated at two tertiary centers. The cohort was divided into two subgroups - liver transplant (LT, 324 patients) and non-liver transplant (non-LT, 173 patients). We analyzed MPC occurrence, its impact on survival, and identified variables predicting unfavorable outcomes. The MPC were detected in 88 patients (18%). The most common MPC were prostate (17%), skin (15.9%), kidney (12.5%), and lung (10.2%). The median OS of the whole cohort and the LT and non-LT subgroups were 70, 116, and 17 months, respectively (p<0.0001). The median OS in patients with HCC only and HCC with another cancer was 77 (95% CI, 67-96) and 50 months (95% CI, 37-62), respectively (p=0.25). The OS of LT patients was significantly better than that of those in whom LT had been contraindicated owing to concomitant MPC (116 vs. 35 months, p<0.0009). Autoimmune etiology, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), HCC as the first diagnosed malignancy, and male sex were identified as factors significantly influencing the patients' outcomes (HR 0.43, 3.2326, 0.70, and 1.43, respectively). The MPC frequency was 18%. The impact of MPC on OS was not significant, except for individuals contraindicated for LT because of MPC. A better prognosis is associated with the autoimmune etiology of cirrhosis, and when HCC is diagnosed as the first malignancy. Male sex and NASH worsened the outcomes.

Efficacy of blood plasma spectroscopy for early liver cancer diagnostics in obese patients.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents one of the most common cancers worldwide. A considerable proportion of HCC is caused by cirrhosis related to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Due to the increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome, it is estimated that MASH-related HCC will become the most prevalent etiology of HCC. Currently, HCC screening is based on liver ultrasonography; however, the sensitivity of ultrasonography for early HCC stages in obese patients only reaches 23 %. To date, no studied biomarker shows sufficient efficacy for screening purposes. Nevertheless, the usage of spectroscopic methods offers a new perspective, as its potential use would provide cheap, fast analysis of samples such as blood plasma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We employed a combination of conventional and chiroptical spectroscopic methods to study differences between the blood plasma of obese cirrhotic patients with and without HCC. We included 20 subjects with HCC and 17 without evidence of liver cancer, all of them with body mass index ≥ 30. RESULTS: Sensitivities and specificities reached values as follows: 0.780 and 0.905 for infrared spectroscopy, 0.700 and 0.767 for Raman spectroscopy, 0.840 and 0.743 for electronic circular dichroism, and 0.805 and 0.923 for Raman optical activity. The final combined classification model based on all spectroscopic methods reached a sensitivity of 0.810 and a specificity of 0.857, with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve among all models (0.961). CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that this approach can be used effectively as a diagnostic tool in patients who are not examinable by liver ultrasonography. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04221347.

Untargeted metabolomics of blood plasma samples of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in the world. HCC is often diagnosed late because patients with early-stage cancer have no apparent symptoms. Therefore, it is desirable to find a reliable method for an early diagnosis based on the detection of metabolites - biomarkers, that can be detected in the early stages of the disease. Untargeted metabolomics is often used as a tool to find a suitable biomarker for several diseases. In this work, untargeted metabolomics was performed on blood plasma samples of HCC patients and compared with healthy individuals and patients with liver cirrhosis. A combination of liquid chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry was used as an analytical method. More than a thousand peaks were detected in the blood plasma samples, from which mainly amino acids, carboxylic acids, lipids, and their derivatives were evaluated as potential biomarkers. The data obtained were statistically processed using the analysis of variance, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis.

Exploring the Role of GDF-15 in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Case-Controlled Study Comparing Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis with Non-Inflammatory Controls.

Inflammatory bowel disease, encompassing Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, is a persistent immune-mediated inflammatory gastrointestinal disease. This study investigates the role of growth differentiation factor 15 in severe IBD cases, aiming to identify a reliable parameter to assess disease severity and monitor activity. We analyzed plasma samples from 100 patients undergoing biologic therapy for severe IBD and 50 control subjects. Our analysis included evaluations of GDF-15 levels, inflammatory markers, and clinical features. We employed statistical methods such as the Mann-Whitney U test, ANOVA, and Spearman's correlation for an in-depth analysis. Our results demonstrated consistently higher GDF-15 levels in patients with both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis compared to the control group, irrespective of the biologic treatment received. The correlation analysis indicated significant relationships between GDF-15 levels, patient age, fibrinogen, and IL-6 levels. This study positions GDF-15 as a promising biomarker for severe IBD, with notable correlations with age and inflammatory markers. These findings underscore GDF-15's potential in enhancing disease monitoring and management strategies in an IBD context and encourage further research to clarify GDF-15's role in the IBD pathophysiology.

Comprehensive spectroscopic, metabolomic, and proteomic liquid biopsy in the diagnostics of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Liquid biopsy is a very topical issue in clinical diagnostics research nowadays. In this study, we explored and compared various analytical approaches to blood plasma analysis. Finally, we proposed a comprehensive procedure, which, thanks to the utilization of multiple analytical techniques, allowed the targeting of various biomolecules in blood plasma reflecting diverse biological processes underlying disease development. The potential of such an approach, combining proteomics, metabolomics, and vibrational spectroscopy along with preceding blood plasma fractionation, was demonstrated on blood plasma samples of patients suffering from hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic terrain (n = 20) and control subjects with liver cirrhosis (n = 20) as well as healthy subjects (n = 20). Most of the applied methods allowed the classification of the samples with an accuracy exceeding 80.0 % and therefore have the potential to be used as a stand-alone method in clinical diagnostics. Moreover, a final panel of 48 variables obtained by a combination of the utilized analytical methods enabled the discrimination of the hepatocellular carcinoma samples from cirrhosis with 94.3 % cross-validated accuracy. Thus, this study, although limited by the cohort size, clearly demonstrated the benefit of the multimethod approach in clinical diagnosis.

Acute pancreatitis - predicting the severity of the disease.

RATIONALE: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a serious acute abdominal disease. AP is often referred to as an unpredictable illness, which can take a mild to severe (fatal) course. AIMS OF THE STUDY: 1) To identify clinical parameters that are significantly related to the clinical course of acute pancreatitis. 2) To compile a scoring system enabling the severity of AP to be predicted when the patient is first admitted to hospital. METHODS: Analysis of available publications and clinical guidance, and retrospective analysis of data on patients hospitalised with AP at our clinic enable us to identify clinical details and laboratory results recorded at the time of patients' admission to hospital that are related to the subsequent severity of the disease. For the purposes of statistical analysis, the sample of patients was divided into two groups: group A (mild AP, without local or organ complications), group B (moderately severe and severe AP with local and/or organ complications). PATIENT GROUPS AND RESULTS: In total, between 01.01.2013 and 30.06.2022, 312 patients with acute pancreatitis were allocated to the retrospective-prospective study sample. 74 % (231/312) of these patients were allocated to group A and 26 % (81/312) were allocated to group B. Univariate analysis of the data collected on the patient sample identified 5 parameters that are statistically significantly associated with the severity of the clinical course of the disease. Presence of SIRS on admission (A vs B, Odds ratio 10.787, 95% CI 5.09-22.85, p < 0.0001), diabetes mellitus type 2 in case history (A vs B, Odds ratio 7.703, 95% CI 3.04-19.51, p 2 mmol/l (A vs B, Odds ratio 3.293, 95% CI 1.59-6.82, p = 0.0013).In order to develop a scoring system, each of these parameters was allocated a points value based on its Odds ratio (OR): presence of SIRS 3 points, hypocalcaemia 3 points, diabetes mellitus type 2 in case history 2 points, urea concentration > 8 mmol/l 1 point and lactate concentration > 2 mmol/l 1 point. The authors refer to their scoring system as The Acute Pancreatitis Admission Score (APAS). The accuracy of APAS was modelled for various cut off values. Across the whole sample, we ascertained that an APAS ≥ 4 points predicts moderately severe or severe AP with a sensitivity of 81 % (95% CI: 71 - 89 %) and specificity of 87 % (95 CI: 81 - 91 %). The positive predictive value (PPV) of APAS ≥ 4 is 0.68, while its negative predictive value (NPV) is 0.93 and accuracy 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 - 0.89). CONCLUSION: In this study we identify significant simple clinical and laboratory parameters that are commonly tested as part of an initial examination when admitting a patient with AP to hospital. Having identified these parameters we are able to establish a simple scoring system that is able to predict the severity of the course of AP at the moment of hospitalisation (Tab. 5, Fig. 2, Ref. 27).

Invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient before resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Aim of the study: To evaluate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement in patients with resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) we describe our experience with the procedure as part of our hospital standard preoperative algorithm. We present our protocol for this situation, the HVPG measurement procedure, and the results of our cohort. Material and methods: We performed a retrospective statistical analysis of all patients who underwent planned hepatic resection for HCC with HVPG measurement between 1/2016 and 1/2023. The cohort included 35 patients (30 males, mean age 69.5 years) who underwent HVPG measurement before liver resection for HCC. Results: The success rate of measurement was 91.4%, with serious complications in 2.9% of cases. Due to the clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) 31.3% of patients were rejected for resection. Seventeen patients with excluded CSPH underwent resection with one case of a postoperative liver event, liver decompensation, representing 5.9% of them. One patient (5.9%) had a complicated postoperative course with fasciitis. None of the patients who underwent resection (88.2%) was readmitted to the hospital due to surgical complications or a liver event during 90 days of follow-up, and no death was reported. The median overall survival (OS) in the resected subgroup was 70 months (95% CI: 52-86), and in patients rejected for surgery (resection and transplantation) 35 months (95% CI: 13-48). Conclusions: HVPG measurement is the gold standard for the quantification of portal hypertension. Hepatic vein catheterization is invasive, but a safe procedure, with a clear impact on the management of resectable HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma, multiple primary neoplasia, and their association with diabetes type 2.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and a frequent fatal complication of chronic liver diseases in the stage of liver cirrhosis. HCC develops at a higher rate in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). DM2 is associated with an increased risk of developing malignant tumors. The term multiple primary neoplasia (MPN) is used to describe the occurrence of multiple primary tumors of different organs in the same individual. To the best of the authors knowledge, the topic of the association between HCC and MPN and DM2 has not been addressed in the Czech literature. Here we present the outcomes of retrospective statistical analysis of a cohort of patients with HCC who were dispensed at the Internal Medicine Clinic of the 1st Faculty of Medicine of the Charles University in the period 2011-2021 and the impact of DM2 and MPN on overall survival (OS). MPNs are relatively common in patients with HCC. The occurrence of MPNs in our cohort was associated with DM2 in half of the cases. Median OS in HCC patients was not significantly affected by the coincidence of DM2 and/or MPNs.

Vibrational and chiroptical analysis of blood plasma for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnostics.

More than one fifth of the world's population suffers from liver cirrhosis or other chronic liver diseases. Unfortunately, some of them will inevitably develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), due to the vast majority of HCC cases arising against the background of liver cirrhosis. Despite this clearly identified high-risk group, the lack of early diagnostic options causes HCC mortality to approach its incidence. As opposed to many types of cancer, the incidence of HCC is expected to grow in the coming decades, which makes the search for an effective early diagnostic option a pressing necessity. This study presents evidence that blood plasma analysis employing a combination of chiroptical and vibrational spectroscopic methods might be the key to the improvement of the current status. One hundred samples of patients with HCC and controls with cirrhosis were classified using principal component analysis together with a random forest algorithm. Differentiation of the specific spectral patterns of the studied groups was successful in more than 80%, indicating the prospect of including spectroscopy in the screening of high-risk groups, such as patients with cirrhosis.

The role of endoscopic ultrasound in patients with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Acute biliary pancreatitis is the most common form of acute pancreatitis worldwide. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) may be helpful in detecting common bile duct stones and in indicating more invasive endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) examinations or determining rarer aetiologies of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Over a period of six years, we prospectively collected 131 patients with acute biliary pancreatitis and observed the need for endoscopic examination alongside with a decrease in the number of necessary ERCP examinations as a result of negative EUS results (no bile duct stones detected). We compared groups of patients given different endoscopic treatments in relation to their hospital mortality relative to the incidence of severe acute pancreatitis. RESULTS: As many as 68 % of primarily indicated EUS examinations had a negative result (no common bile duct stones detected) and this result saved the patients from needing to undergo an invasive ERCP procedure. Both the incidence of the severe form of acute pancreatitis and the hospital mortality rate were lower among patients who underwent only EUS or ERCP after EUS as compared to patients who underwent ERCP straight away. CONCLUSION: The use of EUS in patients with acute pancreatitis is very helpful in determining the treatment strategy (ERCP indication) and may reduce hospital mortality (Tab. 2, Ref. 14).

Etiopathogenetic Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Overall Survival, and Their Evolution over Time-Czech Tertiary Center Overview.

Background and Objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of primary liver cancer with a highly unfavorable prognosis. Aims: Retrospective statistical analysis of patients with HCC in the field of liver cirrhosis treated at our center from the perspective of demography, and the effects of key changes in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in the last 10 years on overall survival (OS) and earlier diagnosis. Materials and Methods: This study included 170 cirrhotic patients with HCC (136 men, 80%). Demographic and etiological factors and OS were analyzed based on distribution into three groups according to the period and key changes in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches (BCLC classification staging; standardization of protocol for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for the treatment of chronic viral hepatitis C (HCV); expansion of systemic oncological therapy). Results: The mean age at the time of diagnosis was 69.3 years (SD = 8.1), and etiology was as follows: non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) 39%, alcoholic liver disease (ALD) 36%, HCV 18%, cryptogenic liver cirrhosis 3%, chronic hepatitis B infection (HBV) 2%, and other etiology 2%. Distribution of stages according to the BCLC: 0 + A 36%, B 31%, C 22%, and D 11%. However, the distribution in the first studied period was as follows: 0 + A 15%, B 34%, C 36%, and D 15%; and in the last period: 0 + A 45%, B 27%, C 17%, and D 11%, and difference was statistically significant (p < 0.05). The median OS for stages 0 + A, B, C, and D was 58, 19, 6, and 2 months, respectively. During the monitored period, there was a visible increase in the etiology of ALD from 30% to 47% and a decrease in HCV from 22% to 11%. In patients treated with TACE (stage B), the median OS grew from 10 to 24 months (p < 0.0001) between the marginal monitored periods. Conclusions: We described a decreasing number of patients with HCV-related HCC during follow-up possibly linked with the introduction of DAA. In our cohort, an improvement in early-stage diagnosis was found, which we mainly concluded as a result of proper ultrasound surveillance, the institution of a HCV treatment center, and increased experience of our sonographers with an examination of cirrhotic patients. Lastly, we described significantly improved overall survival in patients with intermediate HCC treated by TACE, due to the increased experience of interventional radiologists with the method at our facility and an earlier switch to systemic therapy in case of non-response to TACE.

Comparison of Four Bowel Cleansing Agents for Colonoscopy and the Factors Affecting their Efficacy. A Prospective, Randomized Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adequate bowel preparation is essential for successful and effective colonoscopy. Several types of cleansing agents are currently available including low-volume solutions. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of four different bowel cleansing agents. METHODS: A single-center, prospective, randomized, and single-blind study was performed. Consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy were enrolled and randomized into one of the following types of laxatives: polyethylenglycol 4L (PEG), oral sulfate solution (OSS), 2L polyethylenglycol + ascorbate (2L-PEG/Asc), or magnesium citrate + sodium picosulfate (MCSP). The primary outcome was quality of bowel cleansing evaluated according to the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS). Secondary outcomes were polyp detection rate (PDR) and tolerability. RESULTS: Final analysis was performed on 431 patients. The number of patients with adequate bowel preparation (BBPS total scores ≥6 and sub scores ≥2 in each segment) was not significantly different throughout all groups (95.4% PEG; 94.6% OSS; 96.3% 2L-PEG/Asc; 96.2% MCSP; p=0.955). Excellent bowel preparation (BBPS total scores ≥ 8) was associated with younger age (p=0.007). The groups did not have significantly different PDRs (49.5% PEG; 49.1% OSS; 38% 2L-PEG/Asc; 40.4% MCSP; p=0.201). The strongest predictors of pathology identification were age and male gender. The best-tolerated solution was MCSP (palatability: p<0.001; nausea: p=0.024).

Liver stiffness measured by two-dimensional shear-wave elastography predicts hepatic vein pressure gradient at high values in liver transplant candidates with advanced liver cirrhosis.

Liver stiffness is a reliable non-invasive predictor of Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient (HVPG) above 10 mm Hg. However, it failed to predict higher thresholds of HVPG. Our aim was to investigate whether liver stiffness and selected previously published non-invasive blood biomarkers could predict higher HVPG thresholds in liver transplant candidates without ongoing alcohol use. One hundred and nine liver transplant candidates with liver cirrhosis of various aetiologies underwent direct HVPG measurement, liver stiffness measurement by 2D shear-wave elastography (Aixplorer Multiwave, Supersonic Imagine, France) and assessment of blood HVPG biomarkers (osteopontin, VCAM-1, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1ra/IL-1F3 and ELF score). The correlation between liver stiffness and HVPG was linear up to 30 mm Hg of HVPG (r = 0.765, p < 0.0001). The regression lines had similar slopes for HVPG values below and above 16 mm Hg (p > 0.05) and the correlation in patients with HVPG <16 mm Hg (r = 0.456, p = 0.01) was similar to patients with HVPG ≥ 16 mm Hg (r = 0.499, p < 0.0001). The correlation was similar in the subgroup patients with alcoholic (r = 0.718, p < 0.0001), NASH (r = 0.740, p = 0.008), cryptogenic (r = 0.648, p = 0,0377), cholestatic and autoimmune (r = 0.706, p < 0.0001) and viral cirrhosis (r = 0.756, p < 0.0001). Liver stiffness distinguished patients with HVPG above 16, and 20 mm Hg with AUROCs 0.90243, and 0.86824, sensitivity 0.7656, and 0.7027, and specificity 0.9333, and 0.8750. All studied blood biomarkers correlated better with liver stiffness than with HVPG and their AUROCs did not exceed 0.8 at both HVPG thresholds. Therefore, a composite predictor superior to liver stiffness could not be established. We conclude that liver stiffness is a clinically reliable predictor of higher HVPG thresholds in non-drinking subjects with advanced liver cirrhosis.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection in the Czech Republic and Slovakia: an analysis of patient and virus characteristics.

OBJECTIVES: The MOSAIC study gathered data on chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and its treatment in various countries worldwide. Here we summarise patient and HCV characteristics in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. METHODS: MOSAIC was an observational study that included patients with chronic HCV infection untreated at the time of enrolment. Study collected and descriptively analysed patient demographics, disease stage and viral characteristics. Data were collected between February 2014 to October 2014. RESULTS: Among 220 patients enrolled, 51.4% were treatment-naïve. The most prevalent HCV genotype was G1 (78.4%), followed by G3 (19.7%). Higher prevalence of G1 was found in treatment-experienced patients (94.3%) compared to treatment-naïve (63.4%). Most participants (67.7%) presented viral RNA load of ≥ 800,000 IU/mL. Liver cirrhosis was reported in 24.5% of patients. Higher HCV RNA load and duration of HCV infection correlated with the degree of liver fibrosis. Anti-HCV interferon-based treatments were initiated in 88.2% of participants. CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed significant changes in the HCV genotypes partition with G3 genotype rapidly increasing in both countries, with possible impact on the WHO eradication initiative and treatment selection.

Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 8 weeks in treatment-naïve patients with chronic HCV genotypes 1-6 and compensated cirrhosis: The EXPEDITION-8 trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Eight-week glecaprevir/pibrentasvir leads to high rates of sustained virological response at post-treatment week 12 (SVR12) across HCV genotypes (GT) 1-6 in treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis. We evaluated glecaprevir/pibrentasvir once daily for 8 weeks in treatment-naïve patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: EXPEDITION-8 was a single-arm, multicenter, phase IIIb trial. The primary and key secondary efficacy analyses were to compare the lower bound of the 95% CI of the SVR12 rate in i) patients with GT1,2,4-6 in the per protocol (PP) population, ii) patients with GT1,2,4-6 in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population, iii) patients with GT1-6 in the PP population, and iv) patients with GT1-6 in the ITT population, to pre-defined efficacy thresholds based on historical SVR12 rates for 12 weeks of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir in the same populations. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 343 patients were enrolled. Most patients were male (63%), white (83%), and had GT1 (67%). The SVR12 rate in patients with GT1-6 was 99.7% (n/N = 334/335; 95%CI 98.3-99.9) in the PP population and 97.7% (n/N = 335/343; 95% CI 96.1-99.3) in the ITT population. All primary and key secondary efficacy analyses were achieved. One patient (GT3a) experienced relapse (0.3%) at post-treatment week 4. Common adverse events (≥5%) were fatigue (9%), pruritus (8%), headache (8%), and nausea (6%). Serious adverse events (none related) occurred in 2% of patients. No adverse event led to study drug discontinuation. Clinically significant laboratory abnormalities were infrequent. CONCLUSIONS: Eight-week glecaprevir/pibrentasvir was well tolerated and led to a similarly high SVR12 rate as the 12-week regimen in treatment-naïve patients with chronic HCV GT1-6 infection and compensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03089944. LAY SUMMARY: This study was the first to evaluate an 8-week direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimen active against all major types of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in untreated patients with compensated cirrhosis. High virological cure rates were achieved with glecaprevir/pibrentasvir across HCV genotypes 1-6, and these high cure rates did not depend on any patient or viral characteristics present before treatment. This may simplify care and allow non-specialist healthcare professionals to treat these patients, contributing to global efforts to eliminate HCV.

Pangenotypic treatment regimens for chronic hepatitis C.

The treatment of chronic hepatitis C is currently based exclusively on the use of drugs from the direct-acting anti-viral class. They are substances that inhibit one of the 3 most important enzymes of the virus replication cycle. Anti-viral drugs are divided according to the target structure into 3 basic classes, further division is mainly based on the chemical structure of individual antivirals. A common feature of all the regimens is high efficiency and safety. Pangenotypic efficacy regimens are those that utilize a combination of 2 or 3 antiviral agents of different classes, and are effective for all HCV genotypes. Currently there are 3 such regimens available. Pangenotypic regimens probably represent the latest stage of development of treatment for chronic hepatitis C. The review discusses in detail the efficiency of different pangenotypic regimens in individual subgroups of patients with HCV infection. Atten-tion is primarily paid to the data bases for their use.

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: Forecasting the disease burden.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. METHODS: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. RESULTS: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver-related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.