High germline mutation rates, but not extreme population outbreaks, influence genetic diversity in a keystone coral predator.

Lewontin's paradox, the observation that levels of genetic diversity (π) do not scale linearly with census population size (Nc) variation, is an evolutionary conundrum. The most extreme mismatches between π and Nc are found for highly abundant marine invertebrates. Yet, the influences of new mutations on π relative to extrinsic processes such as Nc fluctuations are unknown. Here, we provide the first germline mutation rate (µ) estimate for a marine invertebrate in corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster cf. solaris). We use high-coverage whole-genome sequencing of 14 parent-offspring trios alongside empirical estimates of Nc in Australia's Great Barrier Reef to jointly examine the determinants of π in populations undergoing extreme Nc fluctuations. The A. cf. solaris mean µ was 9.13 x 10-09 mutations per-site per-generation (95% CI: 6.51 x 10-09 to 1.18 x 10-08), exceeding estimates for other invertebrates and showing greater concordance with vertebrate mutation rates. Lower-than-expected Ne (~70,000-180,000) and low Ne/Nc values (0.0047-0.048) indicated weak influences of population outbreaks on long-term π. Our findings are consistent with elevated µ evolving in response to reduced Ne and generation time length, with important implications for explaining high mutational loads and the determinants of genetic diversity in marine invertebrate taxa.

Induction of larval settlement in crown-of-thorns starfish is not mediated by conspecific cues.

Population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster spp.) remain a major cause of coral reef degradation throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans and are inherently modulated by larval settlement and recruitment success. Gregarious larval settlement, as exhibited by many other ecologically important marine invertebrates, can catalyse population growth and replenishment. However, whether conspecific cues induce or influence the settlement of COTS larvae remains a critical information gap. This experimental study examined the induction of COTS settlement in response to a range of conspecific cues associated with early- and late-stage herbivorous juveniles, corallivorous juveniles and adults. Competent COTS larvae were generally not induced to settle by the presence of conspecifics or cues associated with conspecifics, while the settlement success of COTS in the presence of coralline algae was not inhibited or enhanced by adding conspecific conditioned seawater. Rather than being reinforced by gregarious settlement, the recruitment of COTS populations appears dependent on associative settlement cues (i.e., coralline algae and/or associated microbial communities) signalling suitable benthic habitat.

Life-stage specificity and cross-generational climate effects on the microbiome of a tropical sea urchin (Echinodermata: Echinoidea).

Microbes play a critical role in the development and health of marine invertebrates, though microbial dynamics across life stages and host generations remain poorly understood in most reef species, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we use a 4-year multigenerational experiment to explore microbe-host interactions under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-forecast climate scenarios in the rock-boring tropical urchin Echinometra sp. A. Adult urchins (F0 ) were exposed for 18 months to increased temperature and pCO2 levels predicted for years 2050 and 2100 under RCP 8.5, a period which encompassed spawning. After rearing F1 offspring for a further 2 years, spawning was induced, and F2 larvae were raised under current day and 2100 conditions. Cross-generational climate effects were also explored in the microbiome of F1 offspring through a transplant experiment. Using 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, we determined that each life stage and generation was associated with a distinct microbiome, with higher microbial diversity observed in juveniles compared to larval stages. Although life-stage specificity was conserved under climate conditions projected for 2050 and 2100, we observed changes in the urchin microbial community structure within life stages. Furthermore, we detected a climate-mediated parental effect when juveniles were transplanted among climate treatments, with the parental climate treatment influencing the offspring microbiome. Our findings reveal a potential for cross-generational impacts of climate change on the microbiome of a tropical invertebrate species.

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis.

Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable. Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly, synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions, facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models were conducted, which only incorporated responses to warming greater than the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will generally accelerate metabolic rate (+32%) and reduce survival (-35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from subtropical (-9%) and tropical (-8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (-20%) indicates that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature (-30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were exacerbated (-51%, -34% and -40% respectively). The results of these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible consequences for populations, communities and ecosystems.

Settlement cue selectivity by larvae of the destructive crown-of-thorns starfish.

Population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) cause extensive degradation of coral reefs, threatening the structure and function of these important ecosystems. For population irruptions to initiate and spread, large numbers of planktonic larvae have to successfully transition into their benthic life-history stage (i.e. settlement), whereby larval behaviour and the presence of settlement cues may shape spatial patterns of recruitment and adult densities. Our results demonstrate that a wide range of coralline algae species induce COTS larvae to settle; however, the capacity to promote settlement success varied manyfold among algal species, ranging from greater than 90% in Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis to less than 2% in Lithophyllum cf. kotschyanum and two Porolithon species at 24 h. Because many coralline algae species that promote high settlement success are prevalent in shallow reef habitats, our findings challenge the hypothesis that COTS larvae predominantly settle in deep water. Considering both larval behaviour and algal ecology, this study highlights the ecological significance of coralline algae communities in driving recruitment patterns of COTS. More specifically, the local abundance of highly inductive coralline algae (especially, Melyvonnea cf. madagascariensis) may explain some of the marked spatial heterogeneity of COTS populations and the incidence of population irruptions.

Developing an effective marine eDNA monitoring: eDNA detection at pre-outbreak densities of corallivorous seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris).

Outbreaks of the corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Seastar (CoTS) Acanthaster cf. solaris contribute significantly to coral reef loss. Control of outbreaks is hampered because standard monitoring techniques do not detect outbreaks at early (low density) stages, thus preventing early intervention. We previously demonstrated that eDNA monitoring can detect CoTS at intermediate densities. Here, we test whether detection probability can be improved by (i) targeted site selection or collection at specific times and (ii) moving from an average eDNA copy number approach (based on the limit of quantification) to a presence/absence approach (based on the limit of detection). Using a dataset collected over three years and multiple reef sites, we demonstrated that adding water residence age, sea surface level and temperature into generalized linear models explained low amounts of variance of eDNA copy numbers. Site specific CoTS density, by contrast, was a significant predictor for eDNA copy numbers. Bayesian multi-scale occupancy modelling of the presence/absence data demonstrated that the probability of sample capture (θ) on most reefs with intermediate or high CoTS densities was >0.8. Thus, confirming CoTS presence on these reefs would only require 2-3 samples. Sample capture decreased with decreasing CoTS density. Collecting ten filters was sufficient to reliably (based on the lower 95 % Credibility Interval) detect CoTS below nominal outbreak levels (3 Ind. ha-1). Copy number-based estimates may be more relevant to quantify CoTS at higher densities. Although water residence age did contribute little to our models, sites with higher residence times may serve as sentinel sites accumulating eDNA. The approach based on presence or absence of eDNA facilitates eDNA monitoring to detect CoTS densities below outbreak thresholds and we continue to further develop this method for quantification.

Combined effects of climate change and the herbicide diuron on the coral Acropora millepora.

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is threatened by climate change and local pressures, including contaminants in nearshore habitats. This study investigated the combined effects of a GBR-relevant contaminant, the herbicide diuron, under current and two future climate scenarios on the coral Acropora millepora. All physiological responses tested (effective quantum yield (ΔF/Fm'), photosynthesis, calcification rate) were negatively affected with increasing concentrations of diuron. Interactive effects between diuron and climate were observed for all responses; however, climate had no significant effect on ΔF/Fm' or calcification rates. Photosynthesis was negatively affected as the climate scenarios were adjusted from ambient (28.1 °C, pCO2 = 397 ppm) to RCP8.5 2050 (29.1 °C, pCO2 = 680 ppm) and 2100 (30.2 °C, pCO2 = 858 ppm) with EC50 values declining from 19.4 to 10.6 and 2.6 µg L-1 diuron in turn. These results highlight the likelihood that water quality guideline values may need to be adjusted as the climate changes.

Cross-generational response of a tropical sea urchin to global change and a selection event in a 43-month mesocosm study.

Long-term experimental investigations of transgenerational plasticity (TGP) and transgenerational acclimatization to global change are sparse in marine invertebrates. Here, we test the effect of ocean warming and acidification over a 25-month period of Echinometra sp. A sea urchins whose parents were acclimatized at ambient or one of two near-future (projected mid and end of the 21st century) climate scenarios for 18 months. Several parameters linked to performance exhibited strong effects of future ocean conditions at 9 months of age. The Ambient-Ambient group (A-A, both F0 and F1 at ambient conditions) was significantly larger (21%) and faster in righting response (31%) compared to other groups. A second set of contrasts revealed near-future scenarios caused significant negative parental carryover effects. Respiration at 9 months was depressed by 59% when parents were from near-future climate conditions, and righting response was slowed by 28%. At 10 months, a selective pathogenic mortality event led to significantly higher survival rates of A-A urchins. Differences in size and respiration measured prior to the mortality were absent after the event, while a negative parental effect on righting (29% reduction) remained. The capacity to spawn at the end of the experiment was higher in individuals with ambient parents (50%) compared to other groups (21%) suggesting persistent parental effects. Obtaining different results at different points in time illustrates the importance of longer term and multigeneration studies to investigate effects of climate change. Given some animals in all groups survived the pathogenic event and that effects on physiology (but not behavior) among groups were eliminated after the mortality, we suggest that similar events could constitute selective sweeps, allowing genetic adaptation. However, given the observed negative parental effects and reduced potential for population replenishment, it remains to be determined if selection would be sufficiently rapid to rescue this species from climate change effects.

Climate change doubles sedimentation-induced coral recruit mortality.

Coral reef replenishment is threatened by global climate change and local water-quality degradation, including smothering of coral recruits by sediments generated by anthropogenic activities. Here we show that the ability of Acropora millepora recruits to remove sediments diminishes under future climate conditions, leading to increased mortality. Recruits raised under future climate scenarios for fourteen weeks (highest treatment: +1.2 °C, pCO2: 950 ppm) showed twofold higher mortality following repeated sediment deposition (50% lethal sediment concentration LC50: 14-24 mg cm-2) compared to recruits raised under current climate conditions (LC50: 37-51 mg cm-2), depending on recruit age at the time of sedimentation. Older and larger recruits were more resistant to sedimentation and only ten-week-old recruits grown under current climate conditions survived sediment loads possible during dredging operations. This demonstrates that water-quality guidelines for managing sediment concentrations will need to be climate-adjusted to protect future coral recruitment.

Knowledge Gaps in the Biology, Ecology, and Management of the Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster sp. on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

AbstractCrown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are among the most studied coral reef organisms, owing to their propensity to undergo major population irruptions, which contribute to significant coral loss and reef degradation throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, there are still important knowledge gaps pertaining to the biology, ecology, and management of Acanthaster sp. Renewed efforts to advance understanding and management of Pacific crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) on Australia's Great Barrier Reef require explicit consideration of relevant and tractable knowledge gaps. Drawing on established horizon scanning methodologies, this study identified contemporary knowledge gaps by asking active and/or established crown-of-thorns sea star researchers to pose critical research questions that they believe should be addressed to improve the understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef. A total of 38 participants proposed 246 independent research questions, organized into 7 themes: feeding ecology, demography, distribution and abundance, predation, settlement, management, and environmental change. Questions were further assigned to 48 specific topics nested within the 7 themes. During this process, redundant questions were removed, which reduced the total number of distinct research questions to 172. Research questions posed were mostly related to themes of demography (46 questions) and management (48 questions). The dominant topics, meanwhile, were the incidence of population irruptions (16 questions), feeding ecology of larval sea stars (15 questions), effects of elevated water temperature on crown-of-thorns sea stars (13 questions), and predation on juveniles (12 questions). While the breadth of questions suggests that there is considerable research needed to improve understanding and management of crown-of-thorns sea stars on the Great Barrier Reef, the predominance of certain themes and topics suggests a major focus for new research while also providing a roadmap to guide future research efforts.

DNA-Based Detection and Patterns of Larval Settlement of the Corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star (Acanthaster sp.).

AbstractPopulation irruptions of the western Pacific crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.) are a perennial threat to coral reefs and may be initiated by fluctuations in reproductive or settlement success. However, the processes dictating their early life history, particularly larval settlement, remain poorly understood given limitations in sampling larvae and newly settled juveniles in the field. Here, we introduce an innovative method to measure crown-of-thorns sea star settlement, using artificial settlement collectors and droplet digital polymerase chain reaction based on crown-of-thorns sea star-specific mitochondrial DNA primers. This study demonstrated the utility of this method and explored temporal and spatial patterns of crown-of-thorns sea star settlement on the Great Barrier Reef from 2016 to 2020. Settlement varied considerably between sampling periods at Rib Reef and peaked between October 2016 and January 2017. Our results further suggest that crown-of-thorns sea star larvae readily settle in shallow reef environments, with no preferential settlement detected between depths tested (4-12 m). Substantial variation between Great Barrier Reef regions was revealed in 2019-2020, because collectors deployed on reefs in the central Great Barrier Reef were >10 times as likely to record newly settled crown-of-thorns sea stars as reefs in the northern Great Barrier Reef near Lizard Island. The trends reported here add to our understanding of this critical life-history stage; however, further method validation and larger-scale studies are needed to address pertinent information gaps, such as the stock-recruitment dynamics of this species. Most importantly, fluctuations in crown-of-thorns sea star settlement can now be detected using this sampling protocol, which demonstrates its utility in heralding new and renewed population irruptions of this destructive sea star.

Cross-generational effects of climate change on the microbiome of a photosynthetic sponge.

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from rising seawater temperatures and ocean acidification. Sponges have been proposed as possible winners in the face of climate change; however, little is known about the mechanisms underpinning their predicted tolerance. Here we assessed whether microbiome-mediated cross-generational acclimatization could enable the photosynthetic sponge Carteriospongia foliascens to survive under future climate scenarios. To achieve this, we first established the potential for vertical (cross-generational) transmission of symbionts. Sixty-four amplicon sequence variants accounting for >90% of the total C. foliascens microbial community were present across adult, larval and juvenile life stages, showing that a large proportion of the microbiome is vertically acquired and maintained. When C. foliascens were exposed to climate scenarios projected for 2050 and 2100, the host remained visibly unaffected (i.e. no necrosis/bleaching) and the overall microbiome was not significantly different amongst treatments in adult tissue, the respective larvae or recruits transplanted amongst climate treatments. However, indicator species analysis revealed that parental exposure to future climate scenarios altered the presence and abundance of a small suite of microbial taxa in the recruits, thereby revealing the potential for microbiome-mediated cross-generational acclimatization through both symbiont shuffling and symbiont switching within a vertically acquired microbiome.

Acclimation history modulates effect size of calcareous algae (Halimeda opuntia) to herbicide exposure under future climate scenarios.

Tropical marine habitat-builders such as calcifying green algae can be susceptible to climate change (warming and acidification). This study evaluated the cumulative effects of ocean warming (OW), ocean acidification (OA) and the herbicide diuron on the calcifying green algae Halimeda opuntia. We also assessed the influence of acclimation history to experimental climate change conditions on physiological responses. H. opuntia were exposed for 15 days to orthogonal combinations of three climate scenarios [ambient (28 °C, pCO2 = 378 ppm), 2050 (29 °C, pCO2 = 567 ppm) and 2100 (30 °C, pCO2 = 721 ppm)] and to six diuron concentrations (up to 29 µg L-1). Half of the H. opuntia had been acclimated for eight months to the climate scenarios in a mesocosm approach, while the remaining half were not pre-acclimated, as is current practice in most experiments. Climate effects on quantum yield (ΔF/Fm'), photosynthesis and calcification in future climate scenarios were significantly stronger (by -24, -46 and +26%, respectively) in non-acclimated algae, suggesting experimental bias may exaggerate effects in organisms not appropriately acclimated to future-climate conditions. Thus, full analysis was done on acclimated plants only. Interactive effects of future climate scenarios and diuron were observed for ΔF/Fm', while the detrimental effects of climate and diuron on net photosynthesis and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were additive. Calcification-related enzymes were negatively affected only by diuron, with inhibition of Ca-ATPase and upregulation of carbonic anhydrase. The combined and consistent physiological and biochemical evidence of negative impacts (across six indicators) of both herbicide and future-climate conditions on the health of H. opuntia highlights the need to address both climate change and water quality. Guideline values for contaminants may also need to be lowered considering 'climate adjusted thresholds'. Importantly, this study highlights the value of applying substantial future climate acclimation periods in experimental studies to avoid exaggerated organism responses to OW and OA.

Adjusting Tropical Marine Water Quality Guideline Values for Elevated Ocean Temperatures.

Increased frequency of summer heatwaves and poor water quality are two of the most prevalent and severe pressures faced by coral reefs. While these pressures often co-occur, their potential risks to tropical marine species are usually considered independently. Here, we extended the application of multisubstance-Potentially Affected Fraction (ms-PAF) to a nonchemical stressor, elevated sea surface temperature. We then applied this method to calculate climate-adjusted water quality guideline values (GVs) for two reference toxicants, copper and the herbicide diuron, for tropical marine species. First, we developed a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) for thermal stress based on published experimental data for 41 tropical benthic marine species using methods adapted from water quality GV derivation. This enabled quantitative predictions of community effects as temperatures exceeded acclimation values. The resulting protective temperature values (PTx) were similar to temperatures known to initiate coral bleaching and are therefore relevant for application in multistressor risk assessments. The extended ms-PAF method enabled the adjustment of current water quality GVs to account for thermal stress events. This approach could be applied to other ecosystems and other non-contaminant stressors (e.g., sediment, low salinity, anoxia, and ocean acidification), offering an alternative approach for deriving environmental GVs, reporting and assessing the risk posed by multiple stressors.

Little evidence of adaptation potential to ocean acidification in sea urchins living in "Future Ocean" conditions at a CO2 vent.

Ocean acidification (OA) can be detrimental to calcifying marine organisms, with stunting of invertebrate larval development one of the most consistent responses. Effects are usually measured by short-term, within-generation exposure, an approach that does not consider the potential for adaptation. We examined the genetic response to OA of larvae of the tropical sea urchin Echinometra sp. C. raised on coral reefs that were either influenced by CO2 vents (pH ~ 7.9, future OA condition) or nonvent control reefs (pH 8.2). We assembled a high quality de novo transcriptome of Echinometra embryos (8 hr) and pluteus larvae (48 hr) and identified 68,056 SNPs. We tested for outlier SNPs and functional enrichment in embryos and larvae raised from adults from the control or vent sites. Generally, highest F ST values in embryos were observed between sites (intrinsic adaptation, most representative of the gene pool in the spawned populations). This comparison also had the highest number of outlier loci (40). In the other comparisons, classical adaptation (comparing larvae with adults from the control transplanted to either the control or vent conditions) and reverse adaptation (larvae from the vent site returned to the vent or explanted at the control), we only observed modest numbers of outlier SNPs (6-19) and only enrichment in two functional pathways. Most of the outliers detected were silent substitutions without adaptive potential. We conclude that there is little evidence of realized adaptation potential during early development, while some potential (albeit relatively low) exists in the intrinsic gene pool after more than one generation of exposure.

Losing a winner: thermal stress and local pressures outweigh the positive effects of ocean acidification for tropical seagrasses.

Seagrasses are globally important coastal habitat-forming species, yet it is unknown how seagrasses respond to the combined pressures of ocean acidification and warming of sea surface temperature. We exposed three tropical species of seagrass (Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis, and Zostera muelleri) to increasing temperature (21, 25, 30, and 35°C) and pCO2 (401, 1014, and 1949 µatm) for 7 wk in mesocosms using a controlled factorial design. Shoot density and leaf extension rates were recorded, and plant productivity and respiration were measured at increasing light levels (photosynthesis-irradiance curves) using oxygen optodes. Shoot density, growth, photosynthetic rates, and plant-scale net productivity occurred at 25°C or 30°C under saturating light levels. High pCO2 enhanced maximum net productivity for Z. muelleri, but not in other species. Z. muelleri was the most thermally tolerant as it maintained positive net production to 35°C, yet for the other species there was a sharp decline in productivity, growth, and shoot density at 35°C, which was exacerbated by pCO2 . These results suggest that thermal stress will not be offset by ocean acidification during future extreme heat events and challenges the current hypothesis that tropical seagrass will be a 'winner' under future climate change conditions.

Crown-of-Thorns Sea Star Acanthaster cf. solaris Has Tissue-Characteristic Microbiomes with Potential Roles in Health and Reproduction.

Outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns sea stars (CoTS; Acanthaster species complex) cause substantial coral loss; hence, there is considerable interest in developing prevention and control strategies. We characterized the microbiome of captive CoTS and assessed whether dysbiosis was evident in sea stars during a disease event. Most tissue types had a distinct microbiome. The exception was female gonads, in which the microbiomes were highly variable among individuals. Male gonads were dominated (>97% of reads) by a single Mollicutes-related operational taxonomic unit (OTU). Detailed phylogenetic and microscopy analysis demonstrated the presence of a novel Spiroplasma-related bacterium in the spermatogenic layer. Body wall samples had high relative abundance (43 to 64% of reads) of spirochetes, likely corresponding to subcuticular symbionts reported from many echinoderms. Tube feet were characterized by Hyphomonadaceae (24 to 55% of reads). Pyloric cecal microbiomes had high alpha diversity, comprising many taxa commonly found in gastrointestinal systems. The order Oceanospirillales (genera Endozoicomonas and Kistimonas) was detected in all tissues. A microbiome shift occurred in diseased individuals although differences between tissue types were retained. The relative abundance of spirochetes was significantly reduced in diseased individuals. Kistimonas was present in all diseased individuals and significantly associated with diseased tube feet, but its role in disease causation is unknown. While Arcobacter was significantly associated with diseased tissues and Vibrionaceae increased in diversity, no single OTU was detected in all diseased individuals, suggesting opportunistic proliferation of these taxa in this case. This study shows that CoTS have tissue-characteristic bacterial communities and identifies taxa that could play a role in reproduction and host health.IMPORTANCE Coral-eating crown-of-thorns sea stars (CoTS; Acanthaster species complex) are native to the Indo-Pacific, but during periodic population outbreaks they can reach extreme densities (>1,000 starfish per hectare) and function as a pest species. On the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, CoTS have long been considered one of the major contributors to coral loss. There has been significant investment in a targeted control program using lethal injection, and there is interest in developing additional and complementary technologies that can increase culling efficiencies. The biology of CoTS has been studied extensively, but little is known about their associated microbiome. This cultivation-independent analysis of the CoTS microbiome provides a baseline for future analyses targeting the functional role of symbionts, the identification of pathogens, or the development of reproduction manipulators.

Optimum Temperatures for Net Primary Productivity of Three Tropical Seagrass Species.

Rising sea water temperature will play a significant role in responses of the world's seagrass meadows to climate change. In this study, we investigated seasonal and latitudinal variation (spanning more than 1,500 km) in seagrass productivity, and the optimum temperatures at which maximum photosynthesis and net productivity (for the leaf and the whole plant) occurs, for three seagrass species (Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis, and Zostera muelleri). To obtain whole plant net production, photosynthesis, and respiration rates of leaves and the root/rhizome complex were measured using oxygen-sensitive optodes in closed incubation chambers at temperatures ranging from 15 to 43°C. The temperature-dependence of photosynthesis and respiration was fitted to empirical models to obtain maximum metabolic rates and thermal optima. The thermal optimum (Topt) for gross photosynthesis of Z. muelleri, which is more commonly distributed in sub-tropical to temperate regions, was 31°C. The Topt for photosynthesis of the tropical species, H. uninervis and C. serrulata, was considerably higher (35°C on average). This suggests that seagrass species are adapted to water temperature within their distributional range; however, when comparing among latitudes and seasons, thermal optima within a species showed limited acclimation to ambient water temperature (Topt varied by 1°C in C. serrulata and 2°C in H. uninervis, and the variation did not follow changes in ambient water temperature). The Topt for gross photosynthesis were higher than Topt calculated from plant net productivity, which includes above- and below-ground respiration for Z. muelleri (24°C) and H. uninervis (33°C), but remained unchanged at 35°C in C. serrulata. Both estimated plant net productivity and Topt are sensitive to the proportion of below-ground biomass, highlighting the need for consideration of below- to above-ground biomass ratios when applying thermal optima to other meadows. The thermal optimum for plant net productivity was lower than ambient summer water temperature in Z. muelleri, indicating likely contemporary heat stress. In contrast, thermal optima of H. uninervis and C. serrulata exceeded ambient water temperature. This study found limited capacity to acclimate: thus the thermal optima can forewarn of both the present and future vulnerability to ocean warming during periods of elevated water temperature.

Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species.

When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

Ocean acidification has little effect on developmental thermal windows of echinoderms from Antarctica to the tropics.

As the ocean warms, thermal tolerance of developmental stages may be a key driver of changes in the geographical distributions and abundance of marine invertebrates. Additional stressors such as ocean acidification may influence developmental thermal windows and are therefore important considerations for predicting distributions of species under climate change scenarios. The effects of reduced seawater pH on the thermal windows of fertilization, embryology and larval morphology were examined using five echinoderm species: two polar (Sterechinus neumayeri and Odontaster validus), two temperate (Fellaster zelandiae and Patiriella regularis) and one tropical (Arachnoides placenta). Responses were examined across 12-13 temperatures ranging from -1.1 °C to 5.7 °C (S. neumayeri), -0.5 °C to 10.7 °C (O. validus), 5.8 °C to 27 °C (F. zelandiae), 6.0 °C to 27.1 °C (P. regularis) and 13.9 °C to 34.8 °C (A. placenta) under present-day and near-future (2100+) ocean acidification conditions (-0.3 pH units) and for three important early developmental stages 1) fertilization, 2) embryo (prehatching) and 3) larval development. Thermal windows for fertilization were broad and were not influenced by a pH decrease. Embryological development was less thermotolerant. For O. validus, P. regularis and A. placenta, low pH reduced normal development, albeit with no effect on thermal windows. Larval development in all five species was affected by both temperature and pH; however, thermal tolerance was not reduced by pH. Results of this study suggest that in terms of fertilization and development, temperature will remain as the most important factor influencing species' latitudinal distributions as the ocean continues to warm and decrease in pH, and that there is little evidence of a synergistic effect of temperature and ocean acidification on the thermal control of species ranges.