Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Using ADAPT-ITT framework to tailor evidence-based interventions for addressing methamphetamine use among methadone patients in Vietnam.

INTRODUCTION: Methamphetamine use threatens positive treatment outcomes in substance use and HIV, for people with opioid use disorders (POUD) in many countries. This paper describes the adaptation of four evidence-based interventions (EBI) (motivational interviewing, contingency management, Matrix group model and SMS text messaging) for treating methamphetamine use among POUD receiving methadone maintenance therapy in Vietnam. METHODS: Following the ADAPT-ITT (Assessment-Decision-Administration-Production-Topical experts-Training-Testing) framework, we conducted 16 focus group discussions with POUD (n = 25) and providers (n = 22) at four methadone clinics in two largest cities (Hanoi in the North, Ho Chi Minh City in the South) to assess patterns of methamphetamine use and to get feedback on proposed EBIs. The proposed EBIs were properly adapted and used to train providers in two of the four methadone clinics. The revised EBIs were tested over 12 weeks among 42 POUD on methadone who use methamphetamine. Post-intervention feedback served to fine-tune the revised EBIs. RESULTS: Insights about patterns of methamphetamine use suggested that EBIs should focus on different triggers to methamphetamine use among POUD receiving methadone treatment in the two cities. All EBIs should emphasise family-related topics to build a strong motivation for treatment. Participants suggested when, where and how each EBI should be delivered. Most participants were satisfied with the adapted EBIs. Limited human resources at methadone clinics might hinder implementation of the adapted EBIs. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We successfully completed the adaptation of EBIs for POUD who use methamphetamine on methadone in Vietnam. The pilot testing of the adapted EBIs demonstrated feasibility and acceptability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04706624. Registered 13 January 2021. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04706624.

Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. METHODS: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. FINDINGS: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. INTERPRETATION: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Effect of Training on Physicians' Palliative Care-Related Knowledge and Attitudes in Vietnam.

CONTEXT: Palliative care remains largely inaccessible in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and efforts to increase access are impeded by lack of training of proven effectiveness for physicians. OBJECTIVES: To measure the effectiveness of palliative care training for Vietnamese physicians. METHODS: The palliative care-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessment of Vietnamese physicians were studied prior to a basic course in palliative care (baseline), just after the physicians completed the course (post), and 6-18 months later (follow-up). RESULTS: The self-assessment scores and knowledge scores increased significantly from baseline to post and decreased significantly from post to follow-up, but the follow-up scores remained significantly higher than baseline. There were significant interactions between changes over time of the knowledge scores and baseline age, degree, years of graduation, training, type of work, and whether participants had ever prescribed morphine for pain. Medically appropriate attitudes increased significantly from baseline to post and did not decrease significantly from post to follow-up. CONCLUSION: Our basic palliative care course in Vietnam resulted in significant and enduring improvements among physicians in palliative care-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessed competence. To respond to the enormous unmet need for palliative care in LMICs, primary care providers and physician-specialists in many fields, among others, should receive palliative care training of proven effectiveness, receive ongoing mentoring or refresher training, and be given the responsibility and opportunity to practice what they learn.

Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Experience and insights from the emergency multiday take-home dose methadone dispensing in Ho Chi Minh City in context of COVID-19.

Introduction: We aimed to assess the uptake of the pilot multiday take-home dose methadone program during COVID-19 by the patients and document the experience with this novel approach to Methadone Maintenance Treatment (MMT) in Vietnam through this operational research.Materials and methods: A total of 10 clinics were identified randomly using the PPS method. A total of 502 patients were selected from the clinics using a simple randomization technique. The information was collected from the administrative and treatment records and direct face-to-face interview with the patients.Results: None of the clinics reported an incidence of overdose. A large majority of the patients reported that take home methadone program as being convenient (79.6%) and agreed that they shall like to join the multiday take-home dose in future (98.7%).Conclusions: The findings of the current study suggested that the multiday take-home methadone program was feasible and well accepted by the patients in Ho Chi Minh City. It helped ensure continuity of care to patients on MMT during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Main and added effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations for mental and behavioral disorders in a tropical megacity of Vietnam.

Vietnam is highly vulnerable to climate change-related extreme weather events such as heatwaves. This study assesses the association between heatwaves and hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). We collected daily MBD hospital admissions data at the HCMC Mental Health Hospital from 2017 to 2019. Heatwaves effects were characterized into the main effect (i.e., the intensity of temperature during heatwaves) and the added effect (i.e., the duration of heatwaves). Time series Poisson regression coupled with a distributed lag linear model (DLM) was used to quantify the 14-day lags effect of heatwaves. Confounders including long-term trend, seasonality, days of the week, holidays, and relative humidity were included in the model. Heatwaves increased all-cause MBD hospitalization by 62% (95%Cl, 36-93%) for the main effect and by 8% (95% Cl, - 3% to 19%) for the added effect. Noticeably, the group aged 18-60 years old was affected by the main effect of the heatwave, while the group aged 61 years and older was affected by the added effect of the heatwave. The effects of heatwaves differed among groups of MBD hospitalizations. The mental and behavioral disorder group due to psychoactive substance use was significantly affected by the main effect of heatwaves (RR:2.21; 95%Cl:1.55-3.15). The group of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders were highly vulnerable towards both the main and the added effect of heatwaves with RR = 1.50 (95%CI, 1.20-1.86) and RR = 1.14 (95%CI, 1.01-1.30), respectively.

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe.

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.

BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Particulate air pollution in Ho Chi Minh city and risk of hospital admission for acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among young children.

High levels of air pollutants in Vietnam, especially particulate matters including PM2.5, can be important risk factors for respiratory diseases among children of the country. However, few studies on the effects of ambient air pollution on human health have been conducted in Vietnam so far. The aim of this study is to examine the association between PM2.5 and hospital admission due to acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among children aged < 5 years old in Ho Chi Minh city, the largest city of Vietnam. Data relating PM2.5 and hospital admission were collected from February 2016-December 2017 and a time series regression analysis was performed to examine the relationship between PM2.5 and hospital admission including the delayed effect up to three days prior to the admission. We found that each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 3.51 (95%CI: 0.96-6.12) risk of ALRI admission among children. According to the analysis, male children are more sensitive to exposure to PM2.5 than females, while children exposed to PM2.5 are more likely to be infected with acute bronchiolitis than with pneumonia. The study demonstrated that young children in HCMC are at increased risk of ALRI admissions due to the high level of PM2.5 concentration in the city's ambient air.

Palliative Care-Related Knowledge, Attitudes, and Self-Assessment Among Physicians in Vietnam.

CONTEXT: Palliative care is rarely accessible in low- and middle-income countries, and lack of adequate training for health care providers is a key reason. In Vietnam, the Ministry of Health, major hospitals and medical universities, and foreign physician-educators have partnered to initiate palliative care training for physicians. OBJECTIVES: To measure the baseline palliative care-related knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessment of Vietnamese physicians as a basis for curriculum development and to enable evaluation of training courses. METHODS: Before palliative care training courses in Vietnam from 2007 to 2014, we collected data on the participating physicians' demographics, self-assessed competence in palliative care, and palliative care-related knowledge and attitudes. Scores were calculated in three outcome categories-knowledge, attitudes, and self-assessment-and in two subcategories related to physical and psychological symptoms. Associations between the demographic, education, and practice factors and these scores were assessed using linear regression. RESULTS: Among the 392 physicians surveyed, concern about untreated suffering was highly prevalent. 85% felt that most patients with cancer in Vietnam die in pain. On self-assessment, only 8% felt adequately trained in palliative care and the mean knowledge assessment score was 44%. Although 77% had prescribed an opioid in the past year and most had appropriate attitudes toward the use of morphine for pain, the majority reported explicit or implicit restrictions on prescribing morphine. CONCLUSION: There is a great need among Vietnam's physicians for training in palliative care and especially in nonpain and psychological symptom control. Rational, balanced, and clear opioid-prescribing policies are needed to enable physicians to treat pain without fear of repercussions.

Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

Quantifying antimicrobial access and usage for paediatric diarrhoeal disease in an urban community setting in Asia.

Objectives: Antimicrobial-resistant infections are a major global health issue. Ease of antimicrobial access in developing countries is proposed to be a key driver of the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) epidemic despite a lack of community antimicrobial usage data. Methods: Using a mixed-methods approach (geospatial mapping, simulated clients, healthcare utilization, longitudinal cohort) we assessed antimicrobial access in the community and quantified antimicrobial usage for childhood diarrhoea in an urban Vietnamese setting. Results: The study area had a pharmacy density of 15.7 pharmacies/km2 (a pharmacy for every 1316 people). Using a simulated client method at pharmacies within the area, we found that 8% (3/37) and 22% (8/37) of outlets sold antimicrobials for paediatric watery and mucoid diarrhoea, respectively. However, despite ease of pharmacy access, the majority of caregivers would choose to take their child to a healthcare facility, with 81% (319/396) and 88% (347/396) of responders selecting a specialized hospital as one of their top three preferences when seeking treatment for watery and mucoid diarrhoea, respectively. We calculated that at least 19% (2688/14427) of diarrhoea episodes in those aged 1 to <5 years would receive an antimicrobial annually; however, antimicrobial usage was almost 10 times greater in hospitals than in the community. Conclusions: Our data question the impact of community antimicrobial usage on AMR and highlight the need for better education and guidelines for all professionals with the authority to prescribe antimicrobials.

Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study.

Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3-2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1-2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4-2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. METHODS: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. FINDINGS: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. INTERPRETATION: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Methods for the 2016 Socioeconomic and Health Survey in Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (CHILILAB HDSS).

The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (CHILILAB HDSS) was established in 2004 in Chi Linh District, Hai Duong Province (Northern Vietnam). Up to 2013, 22 rounds of data collection at CHILILAB HDSS had been completed. This article reports the methods and key sociodemographic characteristics of households and individuals captured by the survey conducted among the subsamples of CHILILAB HDSS in 2016. We observed and compared them to the previous HDSS survey rounds and found no significant differences for household size and gender compositions in CHILILAB HDSS. The educational level and economic status of CHILILAB people in 2016 have improved. However, it can be seen that the Chi Linh population is undergoing a strong "aging" trend.

Timely immunization completion among children in Vietnam from 2000 to 2011: a multilevel analysis of individual and contextual factors.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of 2014, there have been nearly 6,000 confirmed measles cases in northern Vietnam. Of these, more than 86% had neither been immunized nor was their vaccination status confirmed. OBJECTIVE: To establish the likelihood that children under five in Vietnam had 'timely immunization completion' (2000-2011) and identify factors that account for variations in timely immunization completion. DESIGN: Secondary data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), which sampled women aged 15-49 from the 1999 Vietnamese Population and Housing Census frame, were analyzed. Multilevel analysis using Poisson regression was undertaken. RESULTS: Proportions of children under five who had timely immunization completion were low, especially for HBV dose 2 and HBV dose 3, which decreased between 2000 and 2011. Among seven vaccines used in the National Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) in 2000, 2006, and 2011, measles dose 1 had the highest timely immunization completion at 65.3%, 66.7%, and 73.6%, respectively, and hepatitis B dose 1 had the lowest at 17.5%, 19.3%, and 45.5%, respectively. Timely immunization completion was less common among children whose mothers had relatively less household wealth, were from ethnic minorities, lived in rural areas, and had less education. At the community level, the child's region of residence was the main predictor of timely immunization completion, and the availability of hospital delivery and community prenatal care in the local community were also determinants. CONCLUSION: The EPI should include 'timely immunization completion' as a quality indicator. There should also be greater focus and targeting in rural areas, and among women who have relatively low education, belong to minority groups, and have less household wealth. Further research on this topic using multilevel analysis is needed to better understand how these factors interact.