Recruiting hard-to-reach populations via respondent driven sampling for mobile phone surveys in Colombia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Uptake of mobile phone surveys (MPS) is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, particularly within the context of data collection on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) behavioural risk factors. One barrier to collecting representative data through MPS is capturing data from older participants.Respondent driven sampling (RDS) consists of chain-referral strategies where existing study subjects recruit follow-up participants purposively based on predefined eligibility criteria. Adapting RDS strategies to MPS efforts could, theoretically, yield higher rates of participation for that age group. OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors that influence the perceived acceptability of a RDS recruitment method for MPS involving people over 45 years of age living in Colombia. METHODS: An MPS recruitment strategy deploying RDS techniques was piloted to increase participation of older populations. We conducted a qualitative study that drew from surveys with open and closed-ended items, semi-structured interviews for feedback, and focus group discussions to explore perceptions of the strategy and barriers to its application amongst MPS participants. RESULTS: The strategy's success is affected by factors such as cultural adaptation, institutional credibility and public trust, data protection, and challenges with mobile phone technology. These factors are relevant to individuals' willingness to facilitate RDS efforts targeting hard-to-reach people. Recruitment strategies are valuable in part because hard-to-reach populations are often most accessible through their contacts within their social network who can serve as trust liaisons and drive engagement. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may inform future studies where similar interventions are being considered to improve access to mobile phone-based data collection amongst hard-to-reach groups.

Group-based trajectory models of integrated vaccine delivery and equity in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vaccine delivery - the linkage of routine vaccination with provision of other essential health services - is a hallmark of robust primary care systems that has been linked to equitable improvements in population health outcomes. METHODS: We gathered longitudinal data relating to routine immunization coverage and vaccination equity in 78 low- and middle-income countries that have ever received support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, using multiple imputation to handle missing values. We then estimated several group-based trajectory models to describe the relationship between integrated vaccine delivery and vaccination equity in these countries. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of group membership. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories of geographic vaccination equity across both the imputed and non-imputed datasets, along with two and four trajectories of socioeconomic vaccination equity in the imputed and non-imputed datasets, respectively. Integration was associated with reductions in the slope index of inequality of measles vaccination in the countries analyzed. Integration was also associated with an increase in the percentage of districts reporting high measles vaccination coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated vaccine delivery is most strongly associated with improvements in vaccination equity in settings with high baseline levels of inequity. Continued scholarship is needed to further characterize the relationship between integration and health equity, as well as to improve measurement of vaccination coverage and integration.

Improving COVID-19 vaccine uptake: a message co-design process for a national mHealth intervention in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination is a global priority. Latin American countries have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates worldwide with vaccination hampered by a variety of reasons, including mis- and disinformation, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine supply constraints. Addressing vaccine hesitancy through effective messages has been found to help increase vaccine uptake. Participatory processes could be used to co-design health messages for this purpose. OBJECTIVE: This article describes the methodology used to co-design evidence-based audio messages to be deployed in a cohort of individuals through an interactive voice response (IVR) mobile phone survey intervention, aimed towards increasing vaccination uptake in an adult population in Colombia. METHODS: Participants of the COVID-19 vaccination message co-design process included a sample of the general population of the country, representatives of the funder organisation, and research team members. The co-design process consisted of four phases: (1) formative quantitative and qualitative research, (2) message drafting based on the results of the formative research, (3) message content evaluation, and (4) evaluation of the voices to deliver the audio messages; and was informed by reflexive meetings. RESULTS: Three categories of evidence-based audio messages were co-designed, each corresponding to an arm of the mHealth intervention: (1) factual messages, (2) narrative messages, and (3) mixed messages. An additional fourth arm with no message was proposed for control. The iterative co-design process ended with a total of 14 audio messages recorded to be deployed via the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Co-developing health messages in response to health emergencies is possible. Adopting more context-relevant, participatory, people-centred, and reflexive multidisciplinary approaches could help develop solutions that are more responsive to the needs of populations and public health priorities. Investing resources in message co-design is deemed to have a greater potential for influencing behaviours and improving health outcomes.

Examination of the demographic representativeness of a cross-sectional mobile phone survey in collecting health data in Colombia using random digit dialling.

OBJECTIVES: As mobile phone ownership becomes more widespread in low-income and middle-income countries, mobile phone surveys (MPSs) present an opportunity to collect data on health more cost-effectively. However, selectivity and coverage biases in MPS are concerns, and there is limited information about the population-level representativeness of these surveys compared with household surveys. This study aims at comparing the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents of an MPS on non-communicable disease risk factors to a household survey in Colombia. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. We used a random digit dialling method to select the samples for calling mobile phone numbers. The survey was conducted using two modalities: computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATIs) and interactive voice response (IVR). The participants were assigned randomly to one of the survey modalities based on a targeted sampling quota stratified by age and sex. The Quality-of-Life Survey (ECV), a nationally representative survey conducted in the same year of the MPS, was used as a reference to compare the sample distributions by sociodemographic characteristics of the MPS data. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the population representativeness between the ECV and the MPSs. SETTING: The study was conducted in Colombia in 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Population at least 18 years old with a mobile phone. RESULTS: We completed 1926 and 2983 interviews for CATI and IVR, respectively. We found that the MPS data have a similar (within 10% points) age-sex data distribution compared with the ECV dataset for some subpopulations, mainly for young populations, people with none/primary and secondary education levels, and people who live in urban and rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that MPS could collect similar data to household surveys in terms of age, sex, high school education level and geographical area for some population categories. Strategies are needed to improve representativeness of the under-represented groups.

Remote consent approaches for mobile phone surveys of non-communicable disease risk factors in Colombia and Uganda: A randomized study.

INTRODUCTION: Automated mobile phone surveys (MPS) can be used to collect public health data of various types to inform health policy and programs globally. One challenge in administering MPS is identification of an appropriate and effective participant consent process. This study investigated the impact of different survey consent approaches on participant disposition (response characteristics and understanding of the purpose of the survey) within the context of an MPS that measured noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors across Colombia and Uganda. METHODS: Participants were randomized to one of five consent approaches, with consent modules varying by the consent disclosure and mode of authorization. The control arm consisted of a standard consent disclosure and a combined opt-in/opt-out mode of authorization. The other four arms consist of a modified consent disclosure and one of four different forms of authorization (i.e., opt-in, opt-out, combined opt-in/opt-out, or implied). Data related to respondent disposition and respondent understanding of the survey purpose were analyzed. RESULTS: Among 1889 completed surveys in Colombia, differences in contact, response, refusal, and cooperation rates by study arms were found. About 68% of respondents correctly identified the survey purpose, with no significant difference by study arm. Participants reporting higher levels of education and urban residency were more likely to identify the purpose correctly. Participants were also more likely to accurately identify the survey purpose after completing several survey modules, compared to immediately following the consent disclosure (78.8% vs 54.2% correct, p<0.001). In Uganda, 1890 completed surveys were collected. Though there were differences in contact, refusal, and cooperation rates by study arm, response rates were similar across arms. About 37% of respondents identified the survey purpose correctly, with no difference by arm. Those with higher levels of education and who completed the survey in English were able to more accurately identify the survey purpose. Again, participants were more likely to accurately identify the purpose of the survey after completing several NCD modules, compared to immediately following the consent module (42.0% vs 32.2% correct, p = 0.013). CONCLUSION: This study contributes to the limited available evidence regarding consent procedures for automated MPS. Future studies should develop and trial additional interventions to enhance consent for automated public health surveys, and measure other dimensions of participant engagement and understanding.

Saving lives through road safety risk factor interventions: global and national estimates.

Global road mortality is a leading cause of death in many low-income and middle-income countries. Data to support priority setting under current resource constraints are urgently needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.6. This Series paper estimates the potential number of lives saved if each country implemented interventions to address risk factors for road injuries. We did a systematic review of all available evidence-based, preventive interventions for mortality reduction that targeted the four main risk factors for road injuries (ie, speeding, drink driving, helmet use, and use of seatbelt or child restraint). We used literature review variables and considered three key country-level variables (gross domestic product per capita, population density, and government effectiveness) to generate country-specific estimates on the potential annual attributable number of lives that would be saved by interventions focusing on these four risk factors in 185 countries. Our results suggest that the implementation of evidence-based road safety interventions that target the four main road safety risk factors could prevent between 25% and 40% of all fatal road injuries worldwide. Interventions addressing speed could save about 347 258 lives globally per year, and at least 16 304 lives would be saved through drink driving interventions. The implementation of seatbelt interventions could save about 121 083 lives, and 51 698 lives could be saved by helmet interventions. We identify country-specific estimates of the potential number of lives saved that would be attributable to these interventions. Our results show the potential effectiveness of the implementation and scaling of these interventions. This paper presents key evidence for priority setting on road safety interventions and shows a path for reaching SDG 3.6.

A Novel Score for mHealth Apps to Predict and Prevent Mortality: Further Validation and Adaptation to the US Population Using the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data Set.

BACKGROUND: The C-Score, which is an individual health score, is based on a predictive model validated in the UK and US populations. It was designed to serve as an individualized point-in-time health assessment tool that could be integrated into clinical counseling or consumer-facing digital health tools to encourage lifestyle modifications that reduce the risk of premature death. OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to conduct an external validation of the C-Score in the US population and expand the original score to improve its predictive capabilities in the US population. The C-Score is intended for mobile health apps on wearable devices. METHODS: We conducted a literature review to identify relevant variables that were missing in the original C-Score. Subsequently, we used data from the 2005 to 2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; N=21,015) to test the capacity of the model to predict all-cause mortality. We used NHANES III data from 1988 to 1994 (N=1440) to conduct an external validation of the test. Only participants with complete data were included in this study. Discrimination and calibration tests were conducted to assess the operational characteristics of the adapted C-Score from receiver operating curves and a design-based goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: Higher C-Scores were associated with reduced odds of all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.96, P<.001). We found a good fit of the C-Score for all-cause mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72. Among participants aged between 40 and 69 years, C-Score models had a good fit for all-cause mortality and an AUC >0.72. A sensitivity analysis using NHANES III data (1988-1994) was performed, yielding similar results. The inclusion of sociodemographic and clinical variables in the basic C-Score increased the AUCs from 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.73) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.85-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that this digital biomarker, the C-Score, has good capabilities to predict all-cause mortality in the general US population. An expanded health score can predict 87% of the mortality in the US population. This model can be used as an instrument to assess individual mortality risk and as a counseling tool to motivate behavior changes and lifestyle modifications.

10 city analysis of child passenger helmet use.

INTRODUCTION: Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death in children over age five. Most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Vulnerable road users, such as motorcyclists and their passengers, are at higher risk. Helmets have significantly decreased morbidity and mortality for motorcyclists; however, they are often unused. The second phase of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Initiative for Global Road Safety was launched in 2015 to improve road safety in 10 cities. This study focuses on child passenger helmet use data from that study to understand the prevalence of helmet use and factors that are associated with helmet use. METHODS: The 10 cities selected were Accra, Addis Ababa, Bandung, Bangkok, Bogota, Fortaleza, Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai. Eight rounds of roadside observational data were collected from February 2015 to April 2019. Observers noted correct child motorcycle passenger helmet use and other site observations including weather patterns, traffic volume, and road surface conditions. A multivariable Poisson regression model was used to examine correct helmet use trends over time. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted for correct child passenger helmet use in all cities controlling for weather, observation time, number of passengers, and driver's correct helmet use. RESULTS: This dataset contained 99,846 motorcycle child passenger observations across the 10 cities. The highest prevalence of correct child passenger helmet use was in Sao Paulo at 97.33%. Six cities had under 25% correct helmet use for child passengers. Examining helmet use over time, only five cities had a significant increase, four cities had no change, and Ho Chi Minh City demonstrated a decrease. In the multivariable regression model, child passengers had higher odds of wearing helmets in adverse weather conditions, early mornings, if the driver wore a helmet, and if there were fewer passengers. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of correct child passenger helmet utilization shows large variation globally and is concerningly low overall. Enhanced enforcement in combination with media campaigns may have contributed to increasing helmet use prevalence over time. Further research is needed to understand reasons for low child passenger helmet use in most cities.

Multisectoral action coalitions for road safety in Brazil: An organizational social network analysis in São Paulo and Fortaleza.

OBJECTIVE: This research was conducted to explore the nature of multisectoral action for road safety in Brazil. In an effort to improve the implementation of complex interventions, we sought to characterize the relationships and exchange patterns within a network tied to the Bloomberg Initiative for Global Road Safety (BIGRS) in Fortaleza and São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an organizational social network analysis based on in-person surveys and key informant interviews with 57 individuals across the two cities from August to October 2019. Survey data included network dimensions such as the frequency of interaction, perceived value of interaction, resource sharing, coordination, data/research sharing, practical guidance, and access to decision makers. We coded and analyzed interview transcripts according to network properties of structure, governance, development, and outcomes, as well as in situ codes that emerged from the data. RESULTS: We found differences in all network properties between road safety networks in Fortaleza and São Paulo. Fortaleza was characterized by a centralized, dense, and relatively new network, whereas São Paulo was larger, diffuse, diverse, and established. Government agencies were central in both networks, but an international nongovernmental organization (NGO) was highly central in Fortaleza and a local NGO was highly central in São Paulo. Few actors on the periphery of both networks were connected to one another or decision makers, which revealed sectors to engage for enhancing network connectivity. Finally, politics were understood to be key in facilitating network activity, data (especially their integration and transparency) were considered to be influential for decision making, and strategic planning was acknowledged as a central concern for network expansion and fluidity. CONCLUSIONS: Multisectoral action for road safety can be reinforced by carefully disentangling the social dynamics of implementation. Organizational social network analysis, supplemented with interview data, can provide a deeper explanation for how members behave and understand their work. In this way, research can help build a collective identity and impetus to action on road safety, contributing to a healthier and more equitable world.

Evaluation of the implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in Colombia.

Evidence-based interventions recommended in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control of the World Health Organization (WHO FCTC) are subject to implementation factors that might affect their actual effectiveness. The Colombian law enacting key commitments from WHO's FCTC was signed in 2009. This study aims at evaluating the potential impact of the enactment and implementation of these WHO FCTC on four outcomes for tobacco consumption (last-year cigarette smoking prevalence, prevalence of heavy smokers, prevalence of lower-intensity smokers and monthly smoking incidence). We used data from the National Psychoactive Substances Consumption Survey (NPSCS) in 2008 (n = 29 164) and 2013 (n = 32 605), and assessed changes in these four outcomes WHO FCTC using propensity score matching (PSM). Propensity scores were obtained using key socio-demographic variables and by matching through a 'Kernel' estimation. Matching quality tests were performed. The common support for both survey samples was 60 793. Sub-analyses were conducted using a governance index to assess the effect of heterogeneous governance levels, proxying implementation, over the country. We found that cigarette year-prevalence and cigarette month-incidence decreased after matching around 8 and 1.2 percentage points between 2008 and 2013, respectively. Consumption might have shifted, at least partially, from heavy smoking towards lower-intensity smoking. Departments with a higher governance index showed larger reductions of tobacco use, possibly associated to a stronger WHO FCTC implementation. This study highlights the impact that the WHO FCTC had on tobacco consumption in a middle-income country and shows the importance of governance strength as a mediating mechanism for WHO FCTC impact. These results advance current knowledge on the effectiveness of WHO FCTC and shed light on the relevance of governance as a key factor in the WHO FCTC implementation.

Cost-Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate Program in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) programs have been recommended as a risk mitigation strategy. However, many governments have hesitated to implement them due to their costs. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a national TTI program to reduce the number of severe and fatal cases of COVID-19 in Colombia. METHODS: We developed a Markov simulation model of COVID-19 infection combined with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered structure. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive TTI strategy compared to no intervention over a one-year horizon, from both the health system and the societal perspective. Hospitalization and mortality rates were retrieved from Colombian surveillance data. We included program costs of TTI intervention, health services utilization, PCR diagnosis test, productivity loss, and government social program costs. We used the number of deaths and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses were performed. FINDINGS: Compared with no intervention, the TTI strategy reduces COVID-19 mortality by 67%. In addition, the program saves an average of $1,045 and $850 per case when observed from the social and the health system perspective, respectively. These savings are equivalent to two times the current health expenditures in Colombia per year. INTERPRETATION: The TTI program is a highly cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Colombia. TTI programs depend on their successful and speedy implementation. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Colombian Ministry of Health through award number PUJ-04519-20 received by EPQ AVO and SDS declined to receive any funding support for this study. The contents are the responsibility of all the individual authors.

Examining the cost-effectiveness of personal protective equipment for formal healthcare workers in Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers are at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection during care encounters compared to the general population. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) have been shown to protect COVID-19 among healthcare workers, however, Kenya has faced PPE shortages that can adequately protect all healthcare workers. We, therefore, examined the health and economic consequences of investing in PPE for healthcare workers in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model following the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines. We examined two outcomes: 1) the incremental cost per healthcare worker death averted, and 2) the incremental cost per healthcare worker COVID-19 case averted. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: Kenya would need to invest $3.12 million (95% CI: 2.65-3.59) to adequately protect healthcare workers against COVID-19. This investment would avert 416 (IQR: 330-517) and 30,041 (IQR: 7243 - 102,480) healthcare worker deaths and COVID-19 cases respectively. Additionally, such an investment would result in a healthcare system ROI of $170.64 million (IQR: 138-209) - equivalent to an 11.04 times return. CONCLUSION: Despite other nationwide COVID-19 prevention measures such as social distancing, over 70% of healthcare workers will still be infected if the availability of PPE remains scarce. As part of the COVID-19 response strategy, the government should consider adequate investment in PPE for all healthcare workers in the country as it provides a large return on investment and it is value for money.

A cost study for mobile phone health surveys using interactive voice response for assessing risk factors of noncommunicable diseases.

BACKGROUND: This is the first study to examine the costs of conducting a mobile phone survey (MPS) through interactive voice response (IVR) to collect information on risk factors for noncommunicable diseases (NCD) in three low- and middle-income countries (LMIC); Bangladesh, Colombia, and Uganda. METHODS: This is a micro-costing study conducted from the perspective of the payer/funder with a 1-year horizon. The study evaluates the fixed costs and variable costs of implementing one nationally representative MPS for NCD risk factors of the adult population. In this costing study, we estimated the sample size of calls required to achieve a population-representative survey and associated incentives. Cost inputs were obtained from direct economic costs incurred by a central study team, from country-specific collaborators, and from platform developers who participated in the deployment of these MPS during 2017. Costs were reported in US dollars (USD). A sensitivity analysis was conducted assessing different scenarios of pricing and incentive strategies. Also, costs were calculated for a survey deployed targeting only adults younger than 45 years. RESULTS: We estimated the fixed costs ranging between $47,000 USD and $74,000 USD. Variable costs were found to be between $32,000 USD and $129,000 USD per nationally representative survey. The main cost driver was the number of calls required to meet the sample size, and its variability largely depends on the extent of mobile phone coverage and access in the country. Therefore, a larger number of calls were estimated to survey specific harder-to-reach sub-populations. CONCLUSION: Mobile phone surveys have the potential to be a relatively less expensive and timely method of collecting survey information than face-to-face surveys, allowing decision-makers to deploy survey-based monitoring or evaluation programs more frequently than it would be possible having only face-to-face contact. The main driver of variable costs is survey time, and most of the variability across countries is attributable to the sampling differences associated to reaching out to population subgroups with low mobile phone ownership or access.

Impact of contact tracing on COVID-19 mortality: An impact evaluation using surveillance data from Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is a crucial part of the public health surveillance toolkit. However, it is labor-intensive and costly to carry it out. Some countries have faced challenges implementing contact tracing, and no impact evaluations using empirical data have assessed its impact on COVID-19 mortality. This study assesses the impact of contact tracing in a middle-income country, providing data to support the expansion and optimization of contact tracing strategies to improve infection control. METHODS: We obtained publicly available data on all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Colombia between March 2 and June 16, 2020. (N = 54,931 cases over 135 days of observation). As suggested by WHO guidelines, we proxied contact tracing performance as the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing out of all cases identified. We calculated the daily proportion of cases identified through contact tracing across 37 geographical units (32 departments and five districts). Further, we used a sequential log-log fixed-effects model to estimate the 21-days, 28-days, 42-days, and 56-days lagged impact of the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing on daily COVID-19 mortality. Both the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing and the daily number of COVID-19 deaths are smoothed using 7-day moving averages. Models control for the prevalence of active cases, second-degree polynomials, and mobility indices. Robustness checks to include supply-side variables were performed. RESULTS: We found that a 10 percent increase in the proportion of cases identified through contact tracing is related to COVID-19 mortality reductions between 0.8% and 3.4%. Our models explain between 47%-70% of the variance in mortality. Results are robust to changes of specification and inclusion of supply-side variables. CONCLUSION: Contact tracing is instrumental in containing infectious diseases. Its prioritization as a surveillance strategy will substantially impact reducing deaths while minimizing the impact on the fragile economic systems of lower and middle-income countries. This study provides lessons for other LMIC.

Informed Consent for Mobile Phone Health Surveys in Colombia: A Qualitative Study.

Public health surveys deployed through automated mobile phone calls raise a set of ethical challenges, including succinctly communicating information necessary to obtain respondent informed consent. This study aimed to capture the perspectives of key stakeholders, both experts and community members, on consent processes and preferences for participation in automated mobile phone surveys (MPS) of non-communicable disease risk factors in Colombia. We conducted semi-structured interviews with ethics and digital health experts and focus group discussions with community representatives. There was meaningful disagreement within both groups regarding the necessity of consent, when the purpose of a survey is to contribute to the formulation of public policies. Respondents who favored consent emphasized that consent communications ought to promote understanding and voluntariness, and implicitly suggested that information disclosure conform to a reasonable person standard. Given the automated and unsolicited nature of the phone calls and concerns regarding fraud, trust building was emphasized as important, especially for national MPS deployment. Community sensitization campaigns that provide relevant contextual information (such as the name of the administering institution) were thought to support trust-building. Additional ways to achieve the goals of consent while building trust in automated MPS for disease surveillance should be evaluated in order to inform ethical and effective practice.

Cost-effectiveness and return on investment of protecting health workers in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: To account for health consequences, we estimated mortality for HCWs and present a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model with Bayesian multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Data sources included inputs from the World Health Organization Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool and the Imperial College of London epidemiologic model. RESULTS: An investment of $9.6 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention would save 2,299,543 lives across LMICs, costing $59 USD per HCW case averted and $4,309 USD per HCW life saved. The societal ROI would be $755.3 billion USD, the equivalent of a 7,932% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. DISCUSSION: In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale procurement and distribution of PPE for LMICs is an essential strategy to prevent widespread HCW morbidity and mortality. It is cost-effective and yields a large downstream return on investment.

Adaptation of a mobile phone health survey for risk factors for noncommunicable diseases in Colombia: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Data collection on noncommunicable disease (NCD) behavioral risk factors has traditionally been carried out through face-to-face surveys. However, its high costs and logistical difficulties can lead to lack of timely statistics for planning, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Mobile phone surveys (MPS) have the potential to fill these gaps. OBJECTIVE: This study explores perceptions, feasibility and strategies to increase the acceptability and response rate of health surveys administered through MPS using interactive voice response in Colombia. METHOD: A sequential multimodal exploratory design was used. We conducted key informant interviews (KII) with stakeholders from government and academia; focus group discussions (FGDs) and user-group tests (UGTs) with young adults and elderly people living in rural and urban settings (men and women). The KII and FGDs explored perceptions of using mobile phones for NCD surveys. In the UGTs, participants were administered an IVR survey, and they provided feedback on its usability and potential improvement. RESULTS: Between February and November 2017, we conducted 7 KII, 6 FGDs (n = 54) and 4 UGTs (n = 34). Most participants consider MPS is a novel way to explore risk factors in NCDs. They also recognize challenges for their implementation including security issues, technological literacy and telecommunications coverage, especially in rural areas. It was recommended to promote the survey using mass media before its deployment and stressing its objectives, responsible institution and data privacy safeguards. The preferences in the survey administration relate to factors such as skills in the use of mobile phones, age, availability of time and educational level. The participants recommend questionnaires shorter than 10 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: The possibility of obtaining data through MPS at a population level represents an opportunity to improve the availability of risk-factor data. Steps towards increasing the acceptability and overcoming technological and methodological challenges need to be taken.

Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a permanent gun-carrying restriction on gun-related mortality in Colombia between 2008 and 2014, and determine differences in the effect of the restriction by place of death and sex. METHODS: In 2012, Bogotá and Medellín introduced a permanent gun-carrying restriction. We compared gun-related mortality rates in these cities (intervention cities) with the rates in all other Colombian cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants (control cities). We used data from the Colombian National Department of Statistics to calculate monthly gun-related mortality rates between 2008 and 2014 for intervention and control cities. We used a differences-in-differences method with fixed effects to assess differences in gun-related mortality in intervention and control cities before and after the introduction of the gun-carrying restriction. We stratified effects by place of death (public area or residence) and sex. We made robustness checks to test the assumptions of the models. FINDINGS: Gun-related deaths in the control and intervention cities decreased between 2008 and 2014; however, the decrease was greater in the intervention cities (from 20.29 to 14.93 per 100 000 population; 26.4%) than in the control cities (from 37.88 to 34.56 per 100 000 population; 8.8%). The restriction led to a 22.3% reduction in the monthly gun-related mortality rate in Bogotá and Medellín. The reduction was greater in public areas and for males. Robustness checks supported the assumptions of the models. CONCLUSION: The permanent restriction on carrying guns reduced gun-related deaths. This policy could be used to reduce gun-related injuries in urban centres of other countries with large numbers of gun-related deaths.

Drink driving and speeding in Sao Paulo, Brazil: empirical cross-sectional study (2015-2018).

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence of drink driving and speeding during 2015-2018 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTING: Roads representing the five main regions of the city of Sao Paulo in Brazil, one of the world's largest urban areas. PARTICIPANTS: Drivers (N=10 294) stopped at routine roadside breath testing checkpoints and those driving in selected roads for speeding measurement (N=414 664). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Microwave radar guns were used to measure the speed of vehicles, while the prevalence of drivers under the influence of alcohol was observed in police checkpoints. Data were collected during three consecutive years (2016-2018) following a baseline study established in 2015 using a city-level representative sample of observational data representing all days of the week. RESULTS: Alcohol-related fatalities kept at a constantly high percentage, with 39% of road traffic deaths involving alcohol in 2016. Drivers testing above the legal breath alcohol concentration limit showed a decreasing trend, from 4.1% (95% CI 2.9% to 5.5%) at baseline to 0.6% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.2%) in the end of 2018 (p<0.001); however, more than half of drivers refused breath tests at checkpoints despite steep legal penalties. The prevalence of speeding among all vehicles decreased from 8.1% (95% CI 7.9% to 8.2%) to 4.9% (95% CI 4.7% to 5.1%) by the end of 2016 (p<0.001), but then increased again to 13.5% (95% CI 13.2% to 13.9%) at the end of the study period (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Drink driving rates have reduced, likely due to an increase in drivers refusing breath alcohol tests, while speeding rates have increased significantly by the end of the study period, particularly among motorcycles. Future strategies aiming at reducing road traffic injuries in the major Brazilian city should tailor drink driving and speeding enforcement based on the new evidence provided here.