Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality.

Background: The difficulty in identifying SARS-CoV-2 infections has not only been the major obstacle to control the COVID-19 pandemic but also to quantify changes in the proportion of infections resulting in hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death. Methods: We developed a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination informed by official estimates of the time-varying reproduction number to estimate infections that occurred in Italy between February 2020 and 2022. Model outcomes were compared with the Italian National surveillance data to estimate changes in the SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertainment ratio (IAR), infection hospitalization ratio (IHR), infection ICU ratio (IIR), and infection fatality ratio (IFR) in five different sub-periods associated with the dominance of the ancestral lineages and Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 variants. Results: We estimate that, over the first 2 years of pandemic, the IAR ranged between 15% and 40% (range of 95%CI: 11%-61%), with a peak value in the second half of 2020. The IHR, IIR, and IFR consistently decreased throughout the pandemic with 22-44-fold reductions between the initial phase and the Omicron period. At the end of the study period, we estimate an IHR of 0.24% (95%CI: 0.17-0.36), IIR of 0.015% (95%CI: 0.011-0.023), and IFR of 0.05% (95%CI: 0.04-0.08). Conclusions: Since 2021, changes in the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccination rollout, and the shift of infection to younger ages have reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertainment. The same factors, combined with the improvement of patient management and care, contributed to a massive reduction in the severity and fatality of COVID-19.

Characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy from a sex/gender perspective.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To date, few data on clinical features and risk factors for disease severity and death by gender are available. AIM: The current study aims to describe from a sex/gender perspective the characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 cases occurred in the Italian population from February 2020 until October 2021. METHOD AND RESULTS: We used routinely collected data retrieved from the Italian National Surveillance System. The highest number of cases occurred among women between 40 and 59 years, followed by men in the same age groups. The proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 was higher in men (56.46%) compared to women (43.54%). Most of the observed deaths occurred in the elderly. Considering the age groups, the clinical outcomes differed between women and men in particular in cases over 80 years of age; with serious or critical conditions more frequent in men than in women. CONCLUSIONS: Our data clearly demonstrate a similar number of cases in women and men, but with more severe disease and outcome in men, thus confirming the importance to analyse the impact of sex and gender in new and emerging diseases.

Prevalence of 13 polyomaviruses in actinic keratosis and matched healthy skin samples of immunocompetent individuals.

BACKGROUND: Actinic keratosis (AK) is a precursor of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). UV radiation is the major risk factor for AK, but certain human papillomaviruses (HPVs) of the beta genus are also involved in its development. Differently, the role of polyomaviruses (PyVs) in skin carcinogenesis is still debated. Fiftheen PyVs have been isolated from human tissues so far, including Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV), the aetiological agent of Merkel cell carcinoma. METHODS: The presence of 13 PyVs was assessed in skin samples from AK patients (n = 342). Matched fresh-frozen scrapings from healthy skin (HS) and AK lesions from 242 patients, and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded AK biopsies from a different cohort of 100 patients were analyzed by multiplex PyVs genotyping assay. RESULTS: The most frequent lesion site was the scalp in men (27.3%), and the cheek area in women (29.0%). Differences between men and women were significant for the scalp, the cheek area and the lips. Almost all the scrapings were PyV-positive (HS: 89.7%, AK: 94.6%; p = 0.04). The three most frequent PyVs were MCPyV, HPyV6 and JCPyV (HS: 87.2%, 58.7%, 6.6%, respectively; AK: 88.8%, 51.2%, 9.9%, respectively). HPyV9, TSPyV, BKPyV, HPyV7, LIPyV and SV40 were detected in < 2% of the scrapings. In most cases, matched HS and AK scrapings were both positive (MCPyV: 78.1%, HPyV6: 41.7%), or both negative for the individual genotypes (for the remaining PyVs). PyV prevalence in AK biopsies was 22.0%. Only MCPyV (21.0%) and HPyV6 (3.0%) were detected in these samples. CONCLUSIONS: PyV prevalence in HS and AK scrapings was high, but detection of PyVs exclusively in AK scrapings was rare. PyV positivity rate in AK biopsies was modest. Further research is need to reach firm conclusions regarding the role of these viruses in AK development.

Persistent immunogenicity of integrase defective lentiviral vectors delivering membrane-tethered native-like HIV-1 envelope trimers.

Integrase Defective Lentiviral Vectors (IDLVs) represent an attractive vaccine platform for delivering HIV-1 antigens, given their ability to induce specific and persistent immune responses in both mice and non-human primates (NHPs). Recent advances in HIV-1 immunogen design demonstrated that native-like HIV-1 Envelope (Env) trimers that mimic the structure of virion-associated Env induce neutralization breadth in rabbits and macaques. Here, we describe the development of an IDLV-based HIV-1 vaccine expressing either soluble ConSOSL.UFO.664 or membrane-tethered ConSOSL.UFO.750 native-like Env immunogens with enhanced bNAb epitopes exposure. We show that IDLV can be pseudotyped with properly folded membrane-tethered native-like UFO.750 trimers. After a single IDLV injection in BALB/c mice, IDLV-UFO.750 induced a faster humoral kinetic as well as higher levels of anti-Env IgG compared to IDLV-UFO.664. IDLV-UFO.750 vaccinated cynomolgus macaques developed unusually long-lasting anti-Env IgG antibodies, as underlined by their remarkable half-life both after priming and boost with IDLV. After boosting with recombinant ConM SOSIP.v7 protein, two animals developed neutralization activity against the autologous tier 1B ConS virus mediated by V1/V2 and V3 glycan sites responses. By combining the possibility to display stabilized trimeric Env on the vector particles with the ability to induce sustained humoral responses, IDLVs represent an appropriate strategy for delivering rationally designed antigens to progress towards an effective HIV-1 vaccine.

A population-based cohort approach to assess excess mortality due to the spread of COVID-19 in Italy, January-May 2020.

AIMS: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Italy during the first wave of the epidemic, taking into consideration the geographical heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: This study is a retrospective, population-based cohort study using national statistics throughout Italy. Survival analysis was applied to data aggregated by day of death, age groups, sex, and Italian administrative units (107 provinces). We applied Cox models to estimate the relative hazards (RH) of excess mortality, comparing all-cause deaths in 2020 with the expected deaths from all causes in the same time period. The RH of excess deaths was estimated in areas with a high, moderate, and low spread of COVID-19. We reported the estimate also restricting the analysis to the period of March-April 2020 (first peak of the epidemic). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 57,204,501 individuals living in Italy as of January 1, 2020. The number of excess deaths was 36,445, which accounts for 13.4% of excess mortalities from all causes during January-May 2020 (i.e., RH = 1.134; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.129-1.140). In the macro-area with a relatively higher spread of COVID-19 (i.e., incidence rate, IR): 450-1,610 cases per 100,000 residents), the RH of excess deaths was 1.375 (95% CI: 1.364-1.386). In the area with a relatively moderate spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 150-449 cases) it was 1.049 (95% CI: 1.038-1.060). In the area with a relatively lower spread of COVID-19 (i.e., IR: 30-149 cases), it was 0.967 (95% CI: 0.959-0.976). Between March and April (peak months of the first wave of the epidemic in Italy), we estimated an excess mortality from all causes of 43.5%. The RH of all-cause mortality for increments of 500 cases per 100,000 residents was 1.352 (95% CI: 1.346-1.359), corresponding to an increase of about 35%. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis, making use of a population-based cohort model, estimated all-cause excess mortality in Italy taking account of both time period and of COVID-19 geographical spread. The study highlights the importance of a temporal/geographic framework in analyzing the risk of COVID-19-epidemy related mortality.

Incidence and clearance of anal high-risk Human Papillomavirus infection and their risk factors in men who have sex with men living with HIV.

HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) display the highest prevalence of anal infection by high-risk Human Papillomaviruses (hrHPVs) and incidence of anal carcinoma. Anal specimens were genotyped by the Linear Array. Incidence and clearance of anal infection by hrHPVs, hrHPVs other than HPV16, low-risk HPVs, and four individual types (6,11,16,18) were estimated using a two-state Markov model. Determinants for incidence and clearance were assessed by logistic regression. Overall, 204 individuals were included (median age 42 years, IQR = 34-49). For hrHPVs, incidence and clearance rates were 36.1 × 1000 person-months (p-m) (95% CI 23.3-56.5) and 15.6 × 1000 p-m (95% CI 10.7-23.3), respectively. HPV16 showed a higher incidence than HPV18 (10.2 vs. 7.2 × 1000 p-m). Its clearance was more than twofold lower than that of HPV18 (30.1 vs. 78.2 × 1000 p-m). MSM receiving cART displayed a 68% to 88% decrease in risk of acquiring hrHPVs, hrHPVs other than HPV16, HPV16, and HPV18 (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-0.67; aHR 0.22, 95% CI 0.06-0.78; aHR 0.32, 95% CI 0.12-0.90; aHR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.31, respectively) than patients not treated. A nadir CD4 + count < 200 cells/mm3 significantly reduced the clearance of hrHPVs other than HPV16 (aHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.17-0.90). cART use reduces the risk of acquiring anal infection by hrHPVs.

Safety and efficiency modifications of SIV-based integrase-defective lentiviral vectors for immunization.

Integrase-defective lentiviral vectors (IDLVs) represent an attractive platform for vaccine development as a result of the ability to induce persistent humoral- and cellular-mediated immune responses against the encoded transgene. Compared with the parental integrating vector, the main advantages for using IDLV are the reduced hazard of insertional mutagenesis and the decreased risk for vector mobilization by wild-type viruses. Here we report on the development and use in the mouse immunogenicity model of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-based IDLV containing a long deletion in the U3 region and with the 3' polypurine tract (PPT) removed from the transfer vector for improving safety and/or efficacy. Results show that a safer extended deletion of U3 sequences did not modify integrase-mediated or -independent integration efficiency. Interestingly, 3' PPT deletion impaired integrase-mediated integration but did not reduce illegitimate, integrase-independent integration efficiency, contrary to what was previously reported in the HIV system. Importantly, although the extended deletion in the U3 did not affect expression or immunogenicity from IDLV, deletion of 3' PPT considerably reduced both expression and immunogenicity of IDLV.

Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021.

We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.

Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020.

COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-cause excess mortality between the two waves that occurred during the year 2020 using nationwide data. All-cause excess mortalities were estimated using negative binomial models with time modeled by quadratic splines. The models were also applied to estimate all-cause excess deaths "not directly attributable to COVD-19", i.e., without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the first wave (25th February-31st May), we estimated 52,437 excess deaths (95% CI: 49,213-55,863) and 50,979 (95% CI: 50,333-51,425) during the second phase (10th October-31st December), corresponding to percentage 34.8% (95% CI: 33.8%-35.8%) in the second wave and 31.0% (95%CI: 27.2%-35.4%) in the first. During both waves, all-cause excess deaths percentages were higher in northern regions (59.1% during the first and 42.2% in the second wave), with a significant increase in the rest of Italy (from 6.7% to 27.1%) during the second wave. Males and those aged 80 or over were the most hit groups with an increase in both during the second wave. Excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 decreased during the second phase with respect to the first phase, from 10.8% (95% CI: 9.5%-12.4%) to 7.7% (95% CI: 7.5%-7.9%), respectively. The percentage increase in excess deaths from all causes suggests in Italy a different impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the second wave in 2020. The decrease in excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 may indicate an improvement in the preparedness of the Italian health care services during this second wave, in the detection of COVID-19 diagnoses and/or clinical practice toward the other severe diseases.

Socioeconomic patterns and COVID-19 outcomes before, during and after the lockdown in Italy (2020).

The objective was to investigate the association between deprivation and COVID-19 outcomes in Italy during pre-lockdown, lockdown and post-lockdown periods using a retrospective cohort study with 38,534,169 citizens and 222,875 COVID-19 cases. Multilevel negative binomial regression models, adjusting for age, sex, population-density and region of residence were conducted to evaluate the association between area-level deprivation and COVID-19 incidence, case-hospitalisation rate and case-fatality. During lockdown and post-lockdown, but not during pre-lockdown, higher incidence of cases was observed in the most deprived municipalities compared with the least deprived ones. No differences in case-hospitalisation and case-fatality according to deprivation were observed in any period under study.

Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy.

To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage the data from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system and publicly available mobility data to evaluate the impact of the three-tiered regional restriction system on human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy. The individuals' attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number R(t) decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.95-1.02 in the yellow tier, 0.80-0.93 in the orange tier and 0.74-0.83 in the red tier. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 36% of the hospitalizations between November 6 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases.

Initial impact of SARS-Cov-2 vaccination on healthcare workers in Italy- Update on the 28th of March 2021.

In Italy, the COVID-19 vaccination campaign started in December 2020 with the vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW). To analyse the real-life impact that vaccination is having on this population group, we measured the association between week of diagnosis and HCW status using log-binomial regression. By the week 22-28 March, we observed a 74% reduction (PPR 0.26; 95% CI 0.22-0.29) in the proportion of cases reported as HCW and 81% reduction in the proportion of symptomatic cases reported as HCW, compared with the week with the lowest proportion of cases among HCWs prior to the vaccination campaign (31 August-7 September). The reduction, both in relative and absolute terms, of COVID-19 cases in HCWs that started around 30 days after the start of the vaccination campaign suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are being effective in preventing infection in this group.

Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy.

On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at ¼0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.

Transcriptome Profiling of Human Monocyte-Derived Macrophages Upon CCL2 Neutralization Reveals an Association Between Activation of Innate Immune Pathways and Restriction of HIV-1 Gene Expression.

Macrophages are key targets of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and main producers of the proinflammatory chemokine CC chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2), whose expression is induced by HIV-1 both in vitro and in vivo. We previously found that CCL2 neutralization in monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) strongly inhibited HIV-1 replication affecting post-entry steps of the viral life cycle. Here, we used RNA-sequencing to deeply characterize the cellular factors and pathways modulated by CCL2 blocking in MDMs and involved in HIV-1 replication restriction. We report that exposure to CCL2 neutralizing antibody profoundly affected the MDM transcriptome. Functional annotation clustering of up-regulated genes identified two clusters enriched for antiviral defense and immune response pathways, comprising several interferon-stimulated, and restriction factor coding genes. Transcripts in the clusters were enriched for RELA and NFKB1 targets, suggesting the activation of the canonical nuclear factor κB pathway as part of a regulatory network involving miR-155 up-regulation. Furthermore, while HIV-1 infection caused small changes to the MDM transcriptome, with no evidence of host defense gene expression and type I interferon signature, CCL2 blocking enabled the activation of a strong host innate response in infected macrophage cultures, and potently inhibited viral genes expression. Notably, an inverse correlation was found between levels of viral transcripts and of the restriction factors APOBEC3A (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme catalytic polypeptide-like 3 A), ISG15, and MX1. These findings highlight an association between activation of innate immune pathways and HIV-1 restriction upon CCL2 blocking and identify this chemokine as an endogenous factor contributing to the defective macrophage response to HIV-1. Therapeutic targeting of CCL2 may thus strengthen host innate immunity and restrict HIV-1 replication.

Abnormal cytology in oropharyngeal brushings and in oral rinses is not associated with HPV infection: The OHMAR study.

BACKGROUND: No screening is available for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal cancers. The authors investigated whether cytology may be used as a screening tool and whether oral HPV infection is associated with cytologic abnormalities detected in oropharyngeal brushings and in oral rinse-and-gargle specimens from asymptomatic individuals at increased risk for oral HPV infection. METHODS: Specimens were collected from men who have sex with men at 6-month intervals. Oropharyngeal samples and oral rinse-and-gargle specimens were collected using a cytobrush and mouthwash, respectively. Exfoliated cells were dispersed in PreservCyt. Liquid-based slides were stained with Papanicolaou. An HPV genotyping test using a linear array was used for HPV detection. Associations with abnormal cytology were investigated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 631 brushings and 802 rinses collected from 310 individuals were evaluated; of these specimens, 2 brushings (0.3%) and 10 rinses (1.2%) were inadequate for morphologic evaluation. Of the adequate samples, 35 of 629 brushings (5.5%) and 19 of 792 rinses (2.4%) were abnormal. No associations of high-risk HPVs or HPV-16 infection with cytologic abnormalities were observed for oropharyngeal brushings (high-risk HPVs: odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% CI, 0.41-3.50; P = .75; HPV-16: OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.10-5.84; P = .79) or for oral rinses (high-risk HPVs: OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.26-4.98; P = .87; HPV-16: OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.04-10.60; P = .74). Concurrent moderate/heavy drinking and smoking significantly increased the risk of cytologic abnormalities in the brushings (hazard ratio, 4.84; 95% CI, 1.15-20.43; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Oral HPV infection by high-risk HPVs and HPV-16 does not confer an increased risk of cytologic abnormalities in oropharyngeal brushings and oral rinses. Abnormal cytology seems to be associated with smoking and drinking habits.

Prevalence and attitudes to HIV testing among adults visiting public outpatient clinics in Rome: results of the MeDi (Measuring health Disparities in HIV prevention) survey. Part 1.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that, in Italy, 12 000-18 000 (11-13% of 130 000) HIV-infected subjects are not aware of their serostatus. People in this condition may visit the healthcare system multiple times without being diagnosed. If tested on one of these occasions, they could modify their high-risk behaviours and benefit from treatment, factors that reduce HIV transmission. In Italy, no data on HIV testing in the general population are available so far and little is known on the relationship between socioeconomic determinants (at individual and neighbourhood levels) and testing uptake. METHODS: A large anonymous survey was performed in 2012-2014 on more than 10 000 individuals 18-59 years old who underwent 21 public ambulatories in Rome to determine the proportion of subjects tested for HIV and factors related to testing uptake. Subjects' socio-demographic characteristics, sexual orientation, number of sexual partners, HIV risk behaviour, HIV testing uptake were collected by a self-administered questionnaire. Level of area deprivation was measured at the postal code level by the index of social disadvantage (ISD). Multilevel Poisson regressions were carried out to take heterogeneity between clusters (post code and clinics) into account. RESULTS: Among people participating in the study, 58.1% of subjects self-reported to have been tested at least once for HIV. Those who had one high risk behaviour for HIV-infection were 11% more likely to test than those not reporting any, and subjects who had had a STI (sexually-transmitted-infection) in the past were 12% more likely to test than those who had not had a STI. However only 44% (54% among subjects aged 18-35 years) of those with self-reported risks of contracting HIV had been tested at least once in life. This percentage increases, as expected, with the level of education, but, even so, about 40% of university educated subjects self-reporting risks of contracting HIV had never undergone an HIV test. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that, while the percentage of subjects tested is even higher than observed in other western nations, only 44% of subjects, self-reporting risks of contracting HIV, had tested at least once in life and about 40% of university educated subjects self reporting risks of contracting HIV had never tested.

HIV prevalence among adults in Rome: results of the MeDi (Measuring health Disparities in HIV prevention) survey. Part 2.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, out of 60 millions of inhabitants, 3000 (2700-4000) new HIV infections are estimated each year. As combined antiretroviral therapy (ART) prolongs life for HIV sufferers, the prevalence of HIV-infection is likely to increase over time. Few studies have assessed factors associated with being HIV positive in people accessing public outpatient clinics and, in particular, the influence of socio-economic circumstances on HIV prevalence. This study aims to evaluate the association between subjects' serostatus and socio-economic determinants measured at the individual and neighbourhood levels. METHODS: Data from a large anonymous survey performed in 2012-2014 on more than 10 000 individuals 18-59 years old who underwent 21 public ambulatories in Rome were analysed. Subjects' socio-demographic characteristics, sexual orientation, number of sexual partners, HIV risk behaviour and HIV testing uptake were collected by a self-administered questionnaire. Level of area deprivation was measured at the postal code level by the index of social disadvantage (ISD). Multilevel Poisson regressions were carried out to take heterogeneity between clusters (post code and clinics) into account. RESULTS: Self-reported HIV-prevalence was 2.0% among subjects ever been tested (13.7% for the homosexual/lesbians 7.0% for the bisexual and 1.3% for the heterosexual). About 1% of subjects self-identified as low risk was HIV infected. This prevalence increased up to 2% in the age group 18-34 and up to 5% in the non-heterosexuals (i.e. self- identified homosexuals/lesbians and bisexuals). At the individual level, HIV-prevalence decreased linearly from lowest to highest levels of education. Living in a deprived neighbourhood was not associated with HIV-infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms high HIV prevalences among homosexuals/lesbians. Some infections occur in subjects who do not report high risk behaviours for HIV transmission.

Oral human papillomavirus infection in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected MSM: the OHMAR prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess incidence and clearance of oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and the respective risk factors in HIV-infected and uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: Oral rinse and gargles were collected semiannually from 244 MSM (103, 42.2% HIV-infected). HPV-DNA testing was performed with the Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. A Markov model was used for estimation of incidence, clearance and risk factor analysis. RESULTS: Incidence rates for any HPV were 21.2 and 15.0×1000 person-months in HIV-infected and uninfected MSM, respectively. The respective figures for high-risk HPVs were 10.7 and 6.5×1000 person-months. The clearance rate was 4-12 times higher than the respective incidence rate. HIV-infected MSM with >95 lifetime oral sex partners showed increased incidence of any HPV (adjusted HR, aHR: 8.46, 95% CI 1.89 to 37.92). Condomless oral sex appeared the strongest predictor for incident infection by high-risk HPVs in this group (aHR: 13.40, 95% CI 2.55 to 70.53). Those aged >46 years (aHR: 0.30, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.74) and those with nadir CD4+ T count of <200 cells/mm3 (aHR: 0.14, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75) displayed a significantly reduced clearance of any and high-risk HPVs, respectively. HIV-uninfected MSM aged >46 years had increased risk of acquiring any HPV (aHR: 3.70, 95% CI 1.30 to 10.52) and high-risk HPV (aHR: 5.33, 95% CI 1.06 to 26.68). Any HPV clearance declined in those with more than six recent oral sex partners (aHR: 0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: Acquisition of oral HPV infection in MSM seems to occur rarely, whereas clearance seems to be a frequent event. Oral HPV natural history in these at-risk subjects is differently influenced by age and sex behaviour, depending on HIV status.

[Integrated Surveillance in Italy: outputs and related activities]. / La sorveglianza integrata COVID-19 in Italia: output e attività correlate.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the integrated surveillance system of COVID-19 in Italy, to illustrate the outputs used to return epidemiological information on the spread of the epidemic to the competent public health bodies and to the Italian population, and to describe how the surveillance data contributes to the ongoing weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system. METHODS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system is the result of a close and continuous collaboration between the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), the Italian Ministry of Health, and the regional and local health authorities. Through a web platform, it collects individual data of laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and gathers information on their residence, laboratory diagnosis, hospitalisation, clinical status, risk factors, and outcome. Results, for different levels of aggregation and risk categories, are published daily and weekly on the ISS website, and made available to national and regional public health authorities; these results contribute one of the information sources of the regional monitoring and risk assessment system. RESULTS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system monitors the space-time distribution of cases and their characteristics. Indicators used in the weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system include process indicators on completeness and results indicators on weekly trends of newly diagnosed cases per Region. CONCLUSIONS: the outputs of the integrated surveillance system for COVID-19 provide timely information to health authorities and to the general population on the evolution of the epidemic in Italy. They also contribute to the continuous re-assessment of risk related to transmission and impact of the epidemic thus contributing to the management of COVID-19 in Italy.