Using phylogenetics to infer HIV-1 transmission direction between known transmission pairs.

Inferring the transmission direction between linked individuals living with HIV provides unparalleled power to understand the epidemiology that determines transmission. Phylogenetic ancestral-state reconstruction approaches infer the transmission direction by identifying the individual in whom the most recent common ancestor of the virus populations originated. While these methods vary in accuracy, it is unclear why. To evaluate the performance of phylogenetic ancestral-state reconstruction to determine the transmission direction of HIV-1 infection, we inferred the transmission direction for 112 transmission pairs where transmission direction and detailed additional information were available. We then fit a statistical model to evaluate the extent to which epidemiological, sampling, genetic, and phylogenetic factors influenced the outcome of the inference. Finally, we repeated the analysis under real-life conditions with only routinely available data. We found that whether ancestral-state reconstruction correctly infers the transmission direction depends principally on the phylogeny's topology. For example, under real-life conditions, the probability of identifying the correct transmission direction increases from 32%-when a monophyletic-monophyletic or paraphyletic-polyphyletic tree topology is observed and when the tip closest to the root does not agree with the state at the root-to 93% when a paraphyletic-monophyletic topology is observed and when the tip closest to the root agrees with the root state. Our results suggest that documenting larger differences in relative intrahost diversity increases our confidence in the transmission direction inference of linked pairs for population-level studies of HIV. These findings provide a practical starting point to determine our confidence in transmission direction inference from ancestral-state reconstruction.

Using machine learning and big data to explore the drug resistance landscape in HIV.

Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) appear in HIV under treatment pressure. DRMs are commonly transmitted to naive patients. The standard approach to reveal new DRMs is to test for significant frequency differences of mutations between treated and naive patients. However, we then consider each mutation individually and cannot hope to study interactions between several mutations. Here, we aim to leverage the ever-growing quantity of high-quality sequence data and machine learning methods to study such interactions (i.e. epistasis), as well as try to find new DRMs. We trained classifiers to discriminate between Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (RTI)-experienced and RTI-naive samples on a large HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) sequence dataset from the UK (n ≈ 55, 000), using all observed mutations as binary representation features. To assess the robustness of our findings, our classifiers were evaluated on independent data sets, both from the UK and Africa. Important representation features for each classifier were then extracted as potential DRMs. To find novel DRMs, we repeated this process by removing either features or samples associated to known DRMs. When keeping all known resistance signal, we detected sufficiently prevalent known DRMs, thus validating the approach. When removing features corresponding to known DRMs, our classifiers retained some prediction accuracy, and six new mutations significantly associated with resistance were identified. These six mutations have a low genetic barrier, are correlated to known DRMs, and are spatially close to either the RT active site or the regulatory binding pocket. When removing both known DRM features and sequences containing at least one known DRM, our classifiers lose all prediction accuracy. These results likely indicate that all mutations directly conferring resistance have been found, and that our newly discovered DRMs are accessory or compensatory mutations. Moreover, apart from the accessory nature of the relationships we found, we did not find any significant signal of further, more subtle epistasis combining several mutations which individually do not seem to confer any resistance.

Multiplex detection of antibodies to Chikungunya, O'nyong-nyong, Zika, Dengue, West Nile and Usutu viruses in diverse non-human primate species from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Epidemic arbovirus transmission occurs among humans by mosquito bites and the sylvatic transmission cycles involving non-human primates (NHPs) still exists. However, limited data are available on the extent in NHPs infections and their role. In this study, we have developed and validated a high-throughput serological screening tool to study the circulation of multiple arboviruses that represent a significant threat to human health, in NHPs in Central Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Recombinant proteins NS1, envelope domain-3 (DIII) for the dengue (DENV), yellow fever (YFV), usutu (USUV), west nile (WNV) and zika (ZIKV) and envelope 2 for the chikungunya (CHIKV) and o'nyong-nyong (ONNV) were coupled to Luminex beads to detect IgG directed against these viruses. Evaluation of test performance was made using 161 human sera of known arboviral status (66 negative and 95 positive). The sensitivity and specificity of each antigen were determined by statistical methods and ROC curves (except for ONNV and USUV). All NS1 antigens (except NS1-YFV), CHIKV-E2 and WNV-DIII had sensitivities and specificities > 95%. For the other DIII antigens, the sensitivity was low, limiting the interest of their use for seroprevalence studies. Few simultaneous reactions were observed between the CHIKV+ samples and the NS1 antigens to the non-CHIKV arboviruses. On the other hand, the DENV+ samples crossed-reacted with NS1 of all the DENV serotypes (1 to 4), as well as with ZIKV, USUV and to a lesser extent with YFV. A total of 3,518 samples of 29 species of NHPs from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were tested against NS1 (except YFV), E2 (CHIKV/ONNV) and DIII (WNV) antigens. In monkeys (n = 2,100), the global prevalence varied between 2 and 5% for the ten antigens tested. When we stratified by monkey's biotope, the arboreal species showed the highest reactivity. In monkeys from Cameroon, the highest IgG prevalence were observed against ONNV-E2 and DENV2-NS1 with 3.95% and 3.40% respectively and in DRC, ONNV-E2 (6.63%) and WNV-NS1 (4.42%). Overall prevalence was low in apes (n = 1,418): ranging from 0% for USUV-NS1 to 2.6% for CHIKV-E2. However, a very large disparity was observed among collection site and ape species, e.g. 18% (9/40) and 8.2% (4/49) of gorillas were reactive with CHIKV-E2 or WNV-NS1, respectively in two different sites in Cameroon. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have developed a serological assay based on Luminex technology, with high specificity and sensitivity for simultaneous detection of antibodies to 10 antigens from 6 different arboviruses. This is the first study that evaluated on a large scale the presence of antibodies to arboviruses in NHPs to evaluate their role in sylvatic cycles. The overall low prevalence (<5%) in more than 3,500 NHPs samples from Cameroon and the DRC does not allow us to affirm that NHP are reservoirs, but rather, intermediate hosts of these viruses.

Genomic Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, Colombia.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Colombia was first diagnosed in a traveler arriving from Italy on February 26, 2020. However, limited data are available on the origins and number of introductions of COVID-19 into the country. We sequenced the causative agent of COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), from 43 clinical samples we collected, along with another 79 genome sequences available from Colombia. We investigated the emergence and importation routes for SARS-CoV-2 into Colombia by using epidemiologic, historical air travel, and phylogenetic observations. Our study provides evidence of multiple introductions, mostly from Europe, and documents >12 lineages. Phylogenetic findings validate the lineage diversity, support multiple importation events, and demonstrate the evolutionary relationship of epidemiologically linked transmission chains. Our results reconstruct the early evolutionary history of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia and highlight the advantages of genome sequencing to complement COVID-19 outbreak investigations.

Identification of a Novel Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected African Green Monkey (Chlorocebus tantalus) Confirms that Tantalus Monkeys in Cameroon Are Infected with a Mosaic SIVagm Lineage.

In this study we report on the identification of a simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infecting a Chlorocebus tantalus from Cameroon. The isolate, SIVagmTAN-CA1, was molecularly characterized by sequencing partial genome (∼4,000 bp) using the conventional Sanger method and the Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT). In pol and gp41/nef SIVagmTAN-CA1 clusters with SIVagmSAB infecting Chlorocebus sabaeus from West Africa, whereas in env-gp120 it clusters with SIVagmTAN infecting C. tantalus from Central Africa. This mosaic structure is similar to that of a previously reported isolate infecting another tantalus monkey from Cameroon and confirms that the evolution of SIVagm is complex. Our data show that ONT sequencing gives results comparable with conventional Sanger sequencing on SIV and could help in distinguishing recombination and coinfection.

Medical countermeasures during the 2018 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a rapid genomic assessment.

BACKGROUND: The real-time generation of information about pathogen genomes has become a vital goal for transmission analysis and characterisation in rapid outbreak responses. In response to the recently established genomic capacity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we explored the real-time generation of genomic information at the start of the 2018 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu Province. METHODS: We used targeted-enrichment sequencing to produce two coding-complete Ebola virus genomes 5 days after declaration of the EVD outbreak in North Kivu. Subsequent sequencing efforts yielded an additional 46 genomes. Genomic information was used to assess early transmission, medical countermeasures, and evolution of Ebola virus. FINDINGS: The genomic information demonstrated that the EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces was distinct from the 2018 EVD outbreak in Équateur Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primer and probe mismatches to Ebola virus were identified in silico for all deployed diagnostic PCR assays, with the exception of the Cepheid GeneXpert GP assay. INTERPRETATION: The first two coding-complete genomes provided actionable information in real-time for the deployment of the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola virus envelope glycoprotein vaccine, available therapeutics, and sequence-based diagnostic assays. Based on the mutations identified in the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein (GP12) observed in all 48 genomes, deployed monoclonal antibody therapeutics (mAb114 and ZMapp) should be efficacious against the circulating Ebola virus variant. Rapid Ebola virus genomic characterisation should be included in routine EVD outbreak response procedures to ascertain efficacy of medical countermeasures. FUNDING: Defense Biological Product Assurance Office.

Extensive Serological Survey of Multiple African Nonhuman Primate Species Reveals Low Prevalence of Immunoglobulin G Antibodies to 4 Ebola Virus Species.

Bats are considered a reservoir species for Ebola viruses, but nonhuman primates (NHPs) have represented a source of infection in several outbreaks in humans. Here we report serological screening of blood or fecal samples from monkeys (n = 2322) and apes (n = 2327). Thirty-six NHP species from Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ivory Coast were tested with a sensitive and specific Luminex-based assay for immunoglobulin G antibodies to 4 Ebola virus species. Using the simultaneous presence of antibodies to nucleoproteins and glycoproteins to define positivity, we showed that specific Ebola virus antibodies are not widespread among NHPs. Only 1 mustached monkey (Cercopithecus cephus) from Cameroon was positive for Sudan ebolavirus. These observations support that NHPs are most likely intermediate hosts for Ebola viruses. With the increasing frequency of Ebola outbreaks, it is crucial to identify the animal reservoir and understand the ecology of Ebola viruses to inform disease control.

Origin, tempo, and mode of the spread of DENV-4 Genotype IIB across the state of São Paulo, Brazil during the 2012-2013 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in Brazil in 1982 and since then no more cases were detected again in Brazil until 2010, when the virus was reintroduced. Over the following years, the virus spread to several Brazilian states and resulted in about 1,400,000 dengue cases, in 2013. The largest number of cases were documented in the Southeast macro-region. OBJECTIVES: To determine the phylogeography of DENV-4 Genotype IIB strains isolated during the epidemics in 2012-2013 in São Paulo, Brazil, we aimed to contextualise the contribution of viruses sampled in different localities across the overall movement of DENV-4 in Brazil. METHODS: Based on the envelope gene sequences retrieved from GenBank, we employed a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-4 Genotype IIB in São Paulo, Brazil. FINDINGS: The dispersal dynamics of DENV-4 Genotype IIB in Brazil indicated Rio de Janeiro and Mato Grosso states as the most likely routes toward São Paulo before the 2012-2013 outbreak. Likewise, Guarujá and São José do Rio Preto facilitated viral spread and transmission to other localities in the South and Southeast macro-regions in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: The spread pattern of DENV-4 Genotype IIB strains across the country supports two independent introductions of the virus in São Paulo in a short period of time. Furthermore, São Paulo appears to have played a pivotal role in the dissemination of DENV-4 to other locations in Brazil.

Rapid Confirmation of the Zaire Ebola Virus in the Outbreak of the Equateur Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Implications for Public Health Interventions.

Ten days after the declaration of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, rapid identification of the species Zaire Ebola virus using partial gene amplification and nanopore sequencing backed up the use of the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-Zaire Ebola virus vaccine in the recommended ring vaccination strategy.

An Outbreak of Human Parvovirus B19 Hidden by Dengue Fever.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal outbreaks of dengue often result in hundreds of dengue-suspected cases where a clinical diagnosis cannot be confirmed. Usually, during large outbreaks of dengue and other pathogens that can cause acute febrile illnesses, the search for secondary pathogens with similar disease outcomes is rare. METHODS: Using total RNA sequencing and targeted diagnostic assays, we discovered an outbreak of parvovirus B19 in dengue-suspected patients that occurred from November 2013 to February 2014. RESULTS: Of the 182 cases investigated, 63% were viremic for the B19 virus. Moreover, we found that >43% of infected patients had no serological evidence of prior infection. Parvovirus B19 is a typical childhood infection, yet we observed that 82% of the infected patients were adults. Additionally, we perceived that infected adults had significantly higher presentations of myalgia than in children. We also obtained viral protein (VP) 1/VP2 gene nucleotide sequences from 43 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the utility of next-generation sequencing for symptomatic patients with unknown etiologies during seasonal outbreaks of dengue and other arborviruses. Our findings could improve the vigilance of hospitals and laboratories by raising awareness of co-circulating pathogens such as parvovirus B19 that may be hidden in plain sight.

Origin, tempo, and mode of the spread of DENV-4 Genotype IIB across the state of São Paulo, Brazil during the 2012-2013 outbreak

BACKGROUND Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in Brazil in 1982 and since then no more cases were detected again in Brazil until 2010, when the virus was reintroduced. Over the following years, the virus spread to several Brazilian states and resulted in about 1,400,000 dengue cases, in 2013. The largest number of cases were documented in the Southeast macro-region. OBJECTIVES To determine the phylogeography of DENV-4 Genotype IIB strains isolated during the epidemics in 2012-2013 in São Paulo, Brazil, we aimed to contextualise the contribution of viruses sampled in different localities across the overall movement of DENV-4 in Brazil. METHODS Based on the envelope gene sequences retrieved from GenBank, we employed a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-4 Genotype IIB in São Paulo, Brazil. FINDINGS The dispersal dynamics of DENV-4 Genotype IIB in Brazil indicated Rio de Janeiro and Mato Grosso states as the most likely routes toward São Paulo before the 2012-2013 outbreak. Likewise, Guarujá and São José do Rio Preto facilitated viral spread and transmission to other localities in the South and Southeast macro-regions in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS The spread pattern of DENV-4 Genotype IIB strains across the country supports two independent introductions of the virus in São Paulo in a short period of time. Furthermore, São Paulo appears to have played a pivotal role in the dissemination of DENV-4 to other locations in Brazil.

Noninvasive western lowland gorilla's health monitoring: A decade of simian immunodeficiency virus surveillance in southern Cameroon.

Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVgor) causes persistent infection in critically endangered western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) from west central Africa. SIVgor is closely related to chimpanzee and human immunodeficiency viruses (SIVcpz and HIV-1, respectively). We established a noninvasive method that does not interfere with gorillas' natural behaviour to provide wildlife pathogen surveillance and health monitoring for conservation. A total of 1,665 geo-referenced fecal samples were collected at regular intervals from February 2006 to December 2014 (123 sampling days) in the Campo-Ma'an National Park (southwest Cameroon). Host genotyping was performed using microsatellite markers, SIVgor infection was identified by serology and genetic amplification was attempted on seropositive individuals. We identified at least 125 distinct gorillas, 50 were resampled (observed 3.5 times in average) and 38 were SIVgor+ (seven individuals were seroconverters). Six groups of gorillas were identified based on the overlapping occurrence of individuals with apparent high rates of gene flow. We obtained SIVgor genetic sequences from 25 of 38 seropositive genotyped gorillas and showed that the virus follows exponential growth dynamics under a strict molecular clock. Different groups shared SIVgor lineages demonstrating intergroup viral spread and recapture of positive individuals illustrated intra-host viral evolution. Relatedness and relationship genetic analysis of gorillas together with Bayesian phylogenetic inference of SIVgor provided evidence suggestive of vertical transmission. In conclusion, we provided insights into gorilla social dynamics and SIVgor evolution and emphasized the utility of noninvasive sampling to study wildlife health populations. These findings contribute to prospective planning for better monitoring and conservation.

Survey of Ebola Viruses in Frugivorous and Insectivorous Bats in Guinea, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2015-2017.

To clarify the role of bats in the ecology of Ebola viruses, we assessed the prevalence of Ebola virus antibodies in a large-scale sample of bats collected during 2015-2017 from countries in Africa that have had previous Ebola outbreaks (Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo) or are at high risk for outbreaks (Cameroon). We analyzed 4,022 blood samples of bats from >12 frugivorous and 27 insectivorous species; 2-37 (0.05%-0.92%) bats were seropositive for Zaire and 0-30 (0%-0.75%) bats for Sudan Ebola viruses. We observed Ebola virus antibodies in 1 insectivorous bat genus and 6 frugivorous bat species. Certain bat species widespread across Africa had serologic evidence of Zaire and Sudan Ebola viruses. No viral RNA was detected in the subset of samples tested (n = 665). Ongoing surveillance of bats and other potential animal reservoirs are required to predict and prepare for future outbreaks.

Evolutionary history and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue virus serotypes in an endemic region of Colombia.

Dengue is a prevalent disease in Colombia and all dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) co-circulate in the country since 2001. However, the relative impact of gene flow and local diversification on epidemic dynamics is unknown due to heterogeneous sampling and lack of sufficient genetic data. The region of Santander is one of the areas with the highest incidence of dengue in Colombia. To provide a better understanding of the epidemiology of dengue, we inferred DENV population dynamics using samples collected between 1998 and 2015. We used Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and included 143 new envelope gene sequences from Colombia, mainly from the region of Santander, and 235 published sequences from representative countries in the Americas. We documented one single genotype for each serotype but multiple introductions. Whereas the majority of DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-4 strains fell into one single lineage, DENV-3 strains fell into two distinct lineages that co-circulated. The inferred times to the most recent common ancestors for the most recent clades of DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-4 fell between 1977 and 1987, and for DENV-3 was around 1995. Demographic reconstructions suggested a gradual increase in viral diversity over time. A phylogeographical analysis underscored that Colombia mainly receives viral lineages and a significant diffusion route between Colombia and Venezuela. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the viral diversity and dengue epidemiology in Colombia.

Short Communication: Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors with Reduced Predicted Activity Do Not Impair Second-Line Therapy with Lopinavir/Ritonavir or Darunavir/Ritonavir.

Second-line therapy randomized trials with lopinavir/ritonavir question the value of resistance testing to guide nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) selection. In this study, we investigated the association between baseline drug resistance and treatment outcome after 104 weeks of second-line therapy with NRTIs and either darunavir/ritonavir or lopinavir/ritonavir in West-central Africa. We did an observational analysis of data from 387 individuals in a randomized, open-label 2LADY trial in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Senegal. We modeled the association between RTI drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and virological failure (VF) (viral load [VL] <50 copies/mL) at week 104 using logistic regressions. Covariates included baseline VL and CD4+ count, demographic, and adherence data. Overall, 193 (49.9%), 150 (38.8%), and 44 (11.4%) individuals had, respectively, low/none (genotypic susceptibility score [GSS] <1), intermediate (GSS = 1), and high predicted NRTI activity (GSS >1) in their prescribed second-line regimen. The average number of DRMs by drug class, the proportion of individuals by GSS category, and the duration of first-line therapy were not associated with VF (p > .05). High VL at switch was the only consistent prognostic factor for VF after multivariate adjustment (p < .01). Suboptimal adherence, high predicted RTI activity, or low NRTI mutations were associated with VF (p < .05) when using higher end points for VF or in the intention-to-treat analysis. In conclusion, the use of RTIs with predicted reduced activity does not impair second-line protease inhibitor-based therapy. Therefore, HIV care in resource-limited settings should prioritize strategies to improve adherence and targeted VL testing over drug resistance testing for selecting NRTIs during a protease-based second-line switch.

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting.

The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.

In-depth analysis of HIV-1 drug resistance mutations in HIV-infected individuals failing first-line regimens in West and Central Africa.

OBJECTIVE: In resource-limited countries, antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled up, but individual monitoring is still suboptimal. Here, we studied whether or not ART had an impact on the frequency and selection of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) under these settings. We also examined whether differences exist between HIV-1 genetic variants. DESIGN: A total of 3736 sequences from individuals failing standard first-line ART (n = 1599, zidovudine/stavudine + lamivudine + neviparine/efavirenz) were analyzed and compared with sequences from reverse transcriptase inhibitor (RTI)-naive individuals (n = 2137) from 10 West and Central African countries. METHODS: Fisher exact tests and corrections for multiple comparisons were used to assess the significance of associations. RESULTS: All RTI-DRM from the 2015 International Antiviral Society list, except F227C, and nine mutations from other expert lists were observed to confer extensive resistance and cross-resistance. Five additional independently selected mutations (I94L, L109I, V111L, T139R and T165L) were statistically associated with treatment. The proportion of sequences with multiple mutations and the frequency of all thymidine analog mutations, M184V, certain NNRTIS, I94L and L109I showed substantial increase with time on ART. Only one nucleoside and two nonnucleoside RTI-DRMs differed by subtype/circulating recombinant form. CONCLUSION: This study validates the global robustness of the actual DRM repertoire, in particular for circulating recombinant form 02 predominating in West and Central Africa, despite our finding of five additional selected mutations. However, long-term ART without virological monitoring clearly leads to the accumulation of mutations and the emergence of additional variations, which limit drug options for treatment and can be transmitted. Improved monitoring and optimization of ART are necessary for the long-term effectiveness of ART.

Short Communication: High Viral Load and Multidrug Resistance Due to Late Switch to Second-Line Regimens Could Be a Major Obstacle to Reach the 90-90-90 UNAIDS Objectives in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In the context of lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART) as early as possible and to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic as a public health treat by 2030, it is important to evaluate the potential risk of transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance (HIVDR) in resource-limited countries (RLCs). Since HIV transmission is driven by HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL), we studied the association between plasma VL and HIVDR profiles in 451 adults failing first-line ART from the 2LADY-ANRS12169/EDCTP trial in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Senegal. Median duration on first-line ART was 49 months (IQR: 33-69) and 91% patients were asymptomatic. Genotypic drug resistance testing was successful for 446 patients and 98.7% of them were resistant to at least one of the first-line drugs; 40.6% and 55.8% were resistant to two or three drugs of their ongoing first-line ART, respectively. The median VL was higher in patients with HIVDR to all ongoing first-line drugs than in those still susceptible to at least one drug; 4.7 log10 copies/ml (IQR: 4.3-5.2) versus 4.2 log10 copies/ml (IQR: 3.7-4.7), respectively (p < .001). The proportion of patients with HIVDR to all ongoing first-line drugs was highest (77.9% [95/122]) in patients with VL >5.0 log10 copies/ml. High rates of cross-resistance to other nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors were observed and were also highest in patients with high VL. Without improvement of patient monitoring to avoid late switch to second-line regimens, a potential new epidemic caused by HIVDR strains could emerge in sub-Saharan Africa and compromise all efforts to reach 90-90-90 UNAIDS objective by 2020.

Epidemiological dynamics of an urban Dengue 4 outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Dengue studies at the urban scale are scarce and required for guiding control efforts. In Brazil, the burden of dengue is high and challenges city public health administrations with limited resources. Here we studied the dynamics of a dengue epidemic in a single city. METHODS: Serum samples from dengue suspected cases were collected and tested, from December 2012 and July 2013 in Guarujá, Brazil. We use incidence series analysis to provide a detailed view of the reproduction number dynamics and a Bayesian analysis to infer the spread of the serotype using geographic and temporal data. RESULTS: We obtained nucleotide sequences from 354 envelope genes and georeferenced 286 samples during the course of the outbreak. Serotype 4 was responsible for the epidemic. We identified at least two major lineages that overlapped in distribution. We observed high reproduction numbers and high cladogenesis prior to the escalation of clinical case notifications. Three densely populated non-adjacent neighborhoods played a pivotal role during the onset and/or course of the epidemic. DISCUSSION: Our findings point to high dengue virus transmission with a substantial proportion of unapparent cases that led to a late recognition of an outbreak. Usually source reductions initiatives tend to be insufficient once an epidemic has been established. Nevertheless, health authorities in Guarujá prioritized vector control on specific places with clusters of georeferenced viremic patients, which appear to have diminished the epidemic impact.