Prediction of in-hospital bleeding in acutely ill medical patients: External validation of the IMPROVE bleeding risk score.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis slightly increases bleeding risk. The only risk assessment model to predict bleeding in medical inpatients, the IMPROVE bleeding risk score, has never been validated using prospectively collected outcome data. METHODS: We validated the IMPROVE bleeding risk score in a prospective multicenter cohort of medical inpatients. Primary outcome was in-hospital clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) within 14 days of admission, a secondary outcome was major bleeding (MB). We classified patients according to the score in high or low bleeding risk. We assessed the score's predictive performance by calculating subhazard ratios (sHRs) adjusted for thromboprophylaxis use, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). RESULTS: Of 1155 patients, 8 % were classified as high bleeding risk. CRB and MB within 14 days occurred in 0.94 % and 0.47 % of low-risk and in 5.6 % and 3.4 % of high-risk patients, respectively. Adjusted for thromboprophylaxis, classification in the high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of 14-day CRB (sHR 4.7, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.5-14.5) and MB (sHR 4.9, 95%CI 1.0-23.4). PPV was 5.6 % and 3.4 %, while NPV was 99.1 % and 99.5 % for CRB and MB, respectively. The AUC was 0.68 (95%CI 0.66-0.71) for CRB and 0.73 (95%CI 0.71-0.76) for MB. CONCLUSION: The IMPROVE bleeding risk score showed moderate to good discriminatory power to predict bleeding in medical inpatients. The score may help identify patients at high risk of in-hospital bleeding, in whom careful assessment of the risk-benefit ratio of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis is warranted.

Prediction of very early major bleeding risk in acute pulmonary embolism: an independent external validation of the Pulmonary Embolism-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction (PE-SARD) bleeding score.

BACKGROUND: The Pulmonary Embolism-Syncope, Anemia, and Renal Dysfunction (PE-SARD) bleeding score was derived to predict very early major bleeding (MB) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Before adoption into practice, the score requires external validation in different populations. OBJECTIVES: We independently validated the PE-SARD score in a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort of 687 patients aged ≥65 years with acute PE. METHODS: The PE-SARD score uses 3 variables (syncope, anemia, and renal dysfunction) to classify patients into 3 categories of increasing bleeding risk. The outcomes were very early MB at 7 days (primary) and MB at later time points (secondary). We calculated the PE-SARD score for each patient and classified the proportion of patients as being at low, intermediate, and high risk. To assess discrimination and calibration, we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. RESULTS: The prevalence of MB was 2.0% (14/687) at 7 days and 14.0% (96/687) after a median follow-up of 30 months. The PE-SARD score classified 40.2%, 42.2%, and 17.6% of patients as low, intermediate, and high risk for MB, respectively. The frequency of observed very early MB at 7 days was 1.8% in low-, 2.1% in intermediate-, and 2.5% in high-risk patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.48-0.56) at 7 days and increased to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56-0.64) at the end of follow-up. Score calibration was adequate (p > .05) over the entire follow-up. CONCLUSION: In our independent validation, the PE-SARD score did not accurately predict very early MB and may not be transportable to older patients with PE.

Behçet's syndrome: clinical presentation and prevalence in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: Behçet's syndrome is a rare systemic autoimmune/autoinflammatory disease affecting mucocutaneous tissues, the skin and the eyes, as well as the joints, the central nervous system, the gastrointestinal tract and blood vessels. Because of the lack of clinical data in Switzerland, the aims of this cohort study were to calculate the disease prevalence and to analyse the disease manifestations and the immune-suppressive medication. METHODS: Data were extracted from 52 patient charts. Thereafter, all patients were interviewed with a questionnaire and 46 had an additional physical examination and laboratory analyses. For calculation of prevalence, data of the national statistical bureau were used. RESULTS: A disease prevalence of 4.03/100,000 inhabitants was calculated. The mean delay between first disease manifestation and diagnosis was 8 years. It was 2 years longer for Swiss than for non-Swiss individuals (p = 0.45). The time intervals between diagnosis and occurrence of different organ manifestations ranged from +8 to -11 years. There was no difference in organ involvement between different ethnicities. Colchicine was prescribed for 52% of patients only, whereas tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors and glucocorticoids were most frequently prescribed (80 and 64%, respectively). In almost half of the patients, TNF blockers could be stopped and replaced by conventional immunosuppressive drugs. CONCLUSION: The data from this cohort of Behçet's syndrome patients, the largest in Switzerland, documents a prevalence higher than anticipated. The diagnostic delay underlines an urgent need to improve awareness of the disease and allow timely treatment.

Clinical outcomes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus treated with belimumab in clinical practice settings: a retrospective analysis of results from the OBSErve study in Switzerland.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: To describe patterns of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) care and the clinical effectiveness of belimumab plus standard of care therapy in a real-world clinical setting in Switzerland. METHODS: This multicentre, observational, retrospective cohort study included adults with SLE who initiated belimumab as part of their usual care at least six months before data analysis. The primary outcome was the overall clinical response, assessed by a physician on a Physician’s Global Assessment-like scale, to six months’ treatment with belimumab. Secondary outcomes included improvement in disease activity, SLE manifestations and changes in corticosteroid use. RESULTS: 53 patients (81% female) from three hospitals were included. At index (belimumab initiation), 23 patients (43%) had mild, 23 (43%) had moderate, and 7 (13%) had severe SLE. Overall improvement in disease activity in patients receiving belimumab was: ≥80% in 6 patients (11%), ≥50% in 12 (23%), ≥20% in 31 (58%), <20% in 13 (25%), and no improvement in 9 (17%). Mean Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-SLE Disease Activity Index score decreased from 8.0 at index to 3.6 at six months post index in the 27 patients assessed. In addition, a ≥50% improvement in arthritis, fatigue, rash, low complement (C3, C4 or total haemolytic complement activity), and anti-double-stranded deoxyribonucleic acid antibody levels was experienced six months post index by 10 (38%), 3 (16%), 6 (38%), 2 (12%) and 4 (16%) patients who presented the manifestations at index respectively. At index, 41 patients (77%) received oral corticosteroids at a mean dose of 11.6 mg/day, which decreased to 5.9 mg/day at six months post index. Of the 31 patients receiving a high dose of corticosteroids (≥7.5 mg/day) at index, 18 required <7.5 mg/day and a further two discontinued corticosteroids at six months post index. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides real-world insight into belimumab use in clinical practice in Switzerland. In line with findings from other countries, Swiss patients with SLE who received belimumab demonstrated clinical and serological improvements in SLE and a reduction in corticosteroid use after six months of treatment.