RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines recommend conservative treatment for the management of temporomandibular disorders (TMD), and manual therapy (MT) is commonly applied to reduce pain and improve function. OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of pain reduction and functional improvement following a program of manual therapies (MTP) in patients with TMD and develop a first screening tool that could be used in clinical practice to facilitate decision-making. DESIGN: A cohort of 102 adults with a diagnosis of TMD were treated with four weekly sessions within a MTP applied to craniomandibular structures. Candidate predictors were demographic variables, general health variables, psychosocial features, TMD characteristics and related clinical tests. A reduction of pain intensity by at least 30% after the MTP was considered a good outcome. Logistic regression was adopted to develop the predictive model and its performance was assessed considering the explained variance, calibration, and discrimination. Internal validation of the prediction models was further evaluated in 500 bootstrapped samples. RESULTS: Patients experiencing pain intensity greater than 2/10 during mouth opening, positive expectations of outcome following a MTP, pain localized in the craniocervical region, and a low Central Sensitization Inventory score obtained a good outcome following the MTP. Predictive performance of the identified physical and psychological variables was characterized by high explained variance (R2 = 58%) and discrimination (AUC = 89%) after internal validation. A preliminary screening clinical tool was developed and presented as a nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: The high discrimination of the prediction model revealed promising findings, although these need to be externally validated in future research. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03990662.