Developing a multivariate prediction model of falls among older community-dwelling adults using measures of neuromuscular control and proprioceptive acuity: A pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether measures of neuromuscular control and proprioceptive acuity were predictive of falls in an older community-dwelling population and to develop a multivariate prediction model. METHODS: Fifty-eight adults aged above 60 living independently in the community were recruited for a prospective falls study. On entry, they undertook a Sensory Organisation Test (SOT) and an Active Movement Extent Discrimination Assessment (AMEDA) and completed a short fall risk questionnaire. Participants were monitored for falls over the subsequent 12 months. Prior to analysis, falls were classified into three categories based on the difficulty of the activity being undertaken and the demands of the environment in which the fall occurred. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of a fall. RESULTS: For falls occurring under the least challenging circumstances, the model fitted using the AMEDA score and two of the questions from the fall risk questionnaire, related to balance and confidence, achieved a specificity of 87% and sensitivity of 83%. Falls occurring in more challenging circumstances could not be predicted with any accuracy based on the variables recorded at inception. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneous nature of falls. Poorer proprioceptive acuity appears to play a role in falls occurring where neither the environment nor the activity is challenging, but not in falls occurring in other circumstances. Falls in the least-challenging circumstances affected 15% of participants, but this group was considerably more likely to have multiple falls, increasing their vulnerability to adverse consequences.

Daily surveillance of falls is feasible and reveals a high incidence of falls among older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To ensure accurate data capture for a fall study through a system of daily contact with participants. METHODS: Fifty-eight adults older than 60 years of age and living independently in the community in Canberra, Australia, were recruited for a prospective fall study. We adopted a system of daily contact with study participants for at least 12 months, either by email or by text, asking whether they had suffered a fall in the previous 24 h. At the final testing session, we asked participants whether they had experienced a fall during the previous twelve months. RESULTS: We found no evidence that the daily reporting regime led to excess participant attrition. Only three participants withdrew over the course of the study, and the burden of responding was not cited as a factor in any of these cases. Of the 55 participants who completed the full twelve-month study period, 38 (69%) experienced at least one fall. We also identified inconsistencies between recall of falls occurring during the last twelve months of the study and the contemporaneously recorded data. CONCLUSIONS: Previous studies have found that increasing the reporting demands on fall study participants will lead to higher attrition. This study demonstrates that it is possible to maintain participant engagement and minimise attrition with appropriate design of reporting procedures. We confirm existing evidence regarding the unreliability of retrospective recall of falls. The study highlights the importance of comprehensive and accurate data capture and points to the possibility of under-reporting of fall incidence.