Modelling terrigenous DOC across the north west European Shelf: Fate of riverine input and impact on air-sea CO2 fluxes.

Terrigenous carbon in aquatic systems is increasingly recognised as an important part of the global carbon cycle. Despite this, the fate and distribution of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) in coastal and oceanic systems is poorly understood. We have implemented a theoretical framework for the degradation of tDOC across the land to ocean continuum in a 3D hydrodynamical-biogeochemical model on the North West European Shelf. A key feature of this model is that both photochemical and bacterial tDOC degradation rates are age dependant constituting an advance in our ability to describe carbon cycling in the marine environment. Over the time period 1986-2015, 182±17 Gmol yr-1 of riverine tDOC is input to the shelf. Results indicate that bacterial degradation is by far the most important process in removing tDOC on the shelf, contributing to 73±6 % (132±11 Gmol yr-1) of the total removal flux, while 21±3 % (39±6 Gmol yr-1) of riverine tDOC was advected away from the shelf and photochemical degradation removing 5±0.5 % of the riverine flux. Explicitly including tDOC in the model decreased the air-sea carbon dioxide (CO2) flux by 112±8 Gmol yr-1 (4±0.4 %), an amount approximately equivalent to the CO2 released by the UK chemical industry in 2020. The reduction is equivalent to 62 % of the riverine tDOC input to the shelf while approximately 17 % of riverine input is incorporated into the foodweb. This work can improve the assumptions of the fate of tDOC by Earth System Models and demonstrates that the inclusion of tDOC in models can impact ecosystem dynamics and change predicted global carbon budgets for the ocean.

Recommendation to update the British Society for Cutaneous Allergy corticosteroid series.

BACKGROUND: Patch testing is an important investigation when dermatitis is unresponsive to, or worsened by, topical corticosteroid treatment. There is a balance to be struck between testing too many allergens, which is expensive, time consuming and risks causing sensitization, and testing too few, which risks missing the diagnosis. The current British Society for Cutaneous Allergy (BSCA) corticosteroid series comprises eight allergens and was last updated in February 2007. AIM: To review and update the BSCA corticosteroid series. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data from 16 patch test centres in the UK and Ireland for all patients who were patch tested to a corticosteroid series between August 2017 and July 2019. We recorded the allergens tested, the number and percentage tested to a corticosteroid series and the number of positive results for each allergen. We identified the allergens that test positive in ≥ 0.1% of selectively tested patients. RESULTS: Overall, 3531 patients were tested to a corticosteroid series in the 16 centres. The number of allergens tested ranged from 7 to 18 (mean 10). The proportion of patch test patients who were tested to a corticosteroid series ranged from 1% to 99%. Six allergens in the 2017 BSCA series tested positive in ≥ 0.1% of patients. Nine allergens not in the BSCA corticosteroid series tested positive in ≥ 0.1% of patients. CONCLUSION: This audit demonstrates the importance of regular review of recommended series and the significant variations in practice. The new BSCA corticosteroid series that we recommend contains 13 haptens, with the addition of the patient's own steroid creams as appropriate.

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth-averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator-prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator-prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator-prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade-offs in decisions involving issues of large-scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large-scale marine renewable developments.

Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography.

Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap.

Understanding spatial physical habitat selection driven by competition and/or predator-prey interactions of mobile marine species is a fundamental goal of spatial ecology. However, spatial counts or density data for highly mobile animals often (1) include excess zeros, (2) have spatial correlation, and (3) have highly nonlinear relationships with physical habitat variables, which results in the need for complex joint spatial models. In this paper, we test the use of Bayesian hierarchical hurdle and zero-inflated joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to fit complex joint models to spatial patterns of eight mobile marine species (grey seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet, herring, and sandeels). For each joint model, we specified nonlinear smoothed effect of physical habitat covariates and selected either competing species or predator-prey interactions. Out of a range of six ecologically important physical and biologic variables that are predicted to change with climate change and large-scale energy extraction, we identified the most important habitat variables for each species and present the relationships between these bio/physical variables and species distributions. In particular, we found that net primary production played a significant role in determining habitat preferences of all the selected mobile marine species. We have shown that the INLA method is well-suited for modeling spatially correlated data with excessive zeros and is an efficient approach to fit complex joint spatial models with nonlinear effects of covariates. Our approach has demonstrated its ability to define joint habitat selection for both competing and prey-predator species that can be relevant to numerous issues in the management and conservation of mobile marine species.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.