Current trends suggest most Asian countries are unlikely to meet future biodiversity targets on protected areas.

Aichi Target 11 committed governments to protect ≥17% of their terrestrial environments by 2020, yet it was rarely achieved, raising questions about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework goal to protect 30% by 2030. Asia is a challenging continent for such targets, combining high biodiversity with dense human populations. Here, we evaluated achievements in Asia against Aichi Target 11. We found that Asia was the most underperforming continent globally, with just 13.2% of terrestrial protected area (PA) coverage, averaging 14.1 ± SE 1.8% per country in 2020. 73.1% of terrestrial ecoregions had <17% representation and only 7% of PAs even had an assessment of management effectiveness. We found that a higher agricultural land in 2015 was associated with lower PA coverage today. Asian countries also showed a remarkably slow average annual pace of 0.4 ± SE 0.1% increase of PA extent. These combined lines of evidence suggest that the ambitious 2030 targets are unlikely to be achieved in Asia unless the PA coverage to increase 2.4-5.9 times faster. We provided three recommendations to support Asian countries to meet their post-2020 biodiversity targets: complete reporting and the wider adoption "other effective area-based conservation measures"; restoring disturbed landscapes; and bolstering transboundary PAs.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity.

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Ensuring a Post-COVID Economic Agenda Tackles Global Biodiversity Loss.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic and unprecedented impacts on both global health and economies. Many governments are now proposing recovery packages to get back to normal, but the 2019 Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment indicated that business as usual has created widespread ecosystem degradation. Therefore, a post-COVID world needs to tackle the economic drivers that create ecological disruptions. In this perspective, we discuss a number of tools across a range of actors for both short-term stimulus measures and longer-term revamping of global, national, and local economies that take biodiversity into account. These include measures to shift away from activities that damage biodiversity and toward those supporting ecosystem resilience, including through incentives, regulations, fiscal policy, and employment programs. By treating the crisis as an opportunity to reset the global economy, we have a chance to reverse decades of biodiversity and ecosystem losses.

Reproductive site selection in a bromeliad breeding treefrog suggests complex evolutionary trade-offs.

Reproductive site selection is a key determinant of fitness in many taxa. However, if the site characteristics that enhance offspring survival are detrimental to the parent's survival or mating success, then complex evolutionary trade-offs occur. In the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, males of the treefrog species Aparasphenodon arapapa use the temporary water bodies in forest-floor bromeliads to court and mate. Males fit tightly into the plant with the head blocking the access and after mating, stay in the bromeliad with the offspring. Since evaporation of the temporary water body inside the bromeliad results in reproductive failure, we expected that males would simply choose the largest bromeliad tanks with the most water. We found that although this was generally true, males seemed to avoid both very large bromeliads and very high water volumes. Field observations suggested a trade-off mechanism for this pattern, whereby very large and water-filled tanks would reduce the male's ability to effectively seal the tank entrance, avoid predation, or call to mating females. Males also avoided bromeliads with leaf litter and preferred slightly inclined plants. Our results indicate that during reproductive site selection, this bromeliad-breeder needs to engage in complex trade-offs between selection pressures, balancing water requirements against the need for defense and potentially, the ability to attract a mate.

Corrigendum: Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nature24295.

Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country between 1996 and 2008. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines.

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world's most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

Lineages that cheat death: surviving the squeeze on range size.

Evolutionary lineages differ greatly in their net diversification rates, implying differences in rates of extinction and speciation. Lineages with a large average range size are commonly thought to have reduced extinction risk (although linking low extinction to high diversification has proved elusive). However, climate change cycles can dramatically reduce the geographic range size of even widespread species, and so most species may be periodically reduced to a few populations in small, isolated remnants of their range. This implies a high and synchronous extinction risk for the remaining populations, and so for the species as a whole. Species will only survive through these periods if their individual populations are "threat tolerant," somehow able to persist in spite of the high extinction risk. Threat tolerance is conceptually different from classic extinction resistance, and could theoretically have a stronger relationship with diversification rates than classic resistance. I demonstrate that relationship using primates as a model. I also show that narrowly distributed species have higher threat tolerance than widespread ones, confirming that tolerance is an unusual form of resistance. Extinction resistance may therefore operate by different rules during periods of adverse global environmental change than in more benign periods.

Rationale and design of the Duke Electrophysiology Genetic and Genomic Studies (EPGEN) biorepository.

BACKGROUND: Disturbances in cardiac rhythm can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. Many arrhythmias are known to have a heritable component, but the degree to which genetic variation contributes to disease risk and morbidity is poorly understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: The EPGEN is a prospective single-center repository that archives DNA, RNA, and protein samples obtained at the time of an electrophysiologic evaluation or intervention. To identify genes and molecular variants that are associated with risk for arrhythmic phenotypes, EPGEN uses unbiased genomic screening; candidate gene analysis; and both unbiased and targeted transcript, protein, and metabolite profiling. To date, EPGEN has successfully enrolled >1,500 subjects. The median age of the study population is 62.9 years; 35% of the subjects are female and 21% are black. To this point, the study population has been composed of patients who had undergone defibrillator (implantable cardioverter-defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator) implantation (45%), electrophysiology studies or ablation procedures (35%), and pacemaker implantation or other procedures (20%). The cohort has a high prevalence of comorbidities, including diabetes (33%), hypertension (73%), chronic kidney disease (26%), and peripheral vascular disease (13%). CONCLUSIONS: We have established a biorepository and clinical database composed of patients with electrophysiologic diseases. EPGEN will seek to (1) improve risk stratification, (2) elucidate mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis, and (3) identify novel pharmacologic targets for the treatment of heart rhythm disorders.

Null models of geographic range size evolution reaffirm its heritability.

Most models of allopatric speciation predict that the two daughter species will have range sizes different from each other's and potentially from that of their common ancestor. However, I find that this difference is less than that expected under a variety of null models of range evolution. Sister species' range values may therefore become more similar in the time following speciation. Greater-than-expected similarity (symmetry) has also been treated as a form of range size heritability. I therefore compare the results of this symmetry approach to a test for phylogenetic signal, using the range sizes of North American birds. I find that range size is heritable under both tests. I suggest that null models for range size heritability should be informed by an explicit model of evolution. Comparative methods may give erroneous results if they fail to take the unusual form of inheritance of range size into account.