Institutional complexity emerges from socioecological complexity in small-scale human societies.

Human lifestyles vary enormously over time and space and so understanding the origins of this diversity has always been a central focus of anthropology. A major source of this cultural variation is the variation in institutional complexity: the cultural packages of rules, norms, ontologies and expectations passed down through societies across generations. In this article, we study the emergence of institutions in small-scale societies. There are two primary schools of thought. The first is that institutions emerge top-down as rules are imposed by elites on their societies in order to gain asymmetrical access to power, resources and influence over others through coercion. The second is that institutions emerge bottom-up to facilitate interactions within populations as they seek collective solutions to adaptive problems. Here, we use Bayesian networks to infer the causal structure of institutional complexity in 172 small-scale societies across ethnohistoric western North America reflecting the wide diversity of indigenous lifestyles across this vast region immediately prior to European colonization. Our results suggest that institutional complexity emerges from underlying socioecological complexity because institutions are solutions to coordination problems in more complex environments where human-environment interactions require increased management.

Bullet ricochet mark plan-view morphology in concrete: an experimental assessment of five bullet types and two distances using machine learning.

Bullet ricochets are common occurrences during shooting incidents and can provide a wealth of information useful for shooting incident reconstruction. However, there have only been a small number of studies that have systematically investigated bullet ricochet impact site morphology. Here, this study reports on an experiment that examined the plan-view morphology of 297 ricochet impact sites in concrete that were produced by five different bullet types shot from two distances. This study used a random forest machine learning algorithm to classify bullet types with morphological dimensions of the ricochet mark (impact) with length and perimeter-to-area ratio emerging as the top predictor variables. The 0.22 LR leaves the most distinctive impact mark on the concrete, and overall, the classification accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation is 62%, considerably higher than a random classification accuracy of 20%. Adding in distance to the model as a predictor increases the classification accuracy to 66%. These initial results are promising, in that they suggest that an unknown bullet type can potentially be determined, or at least probabilistically assessed, from the morphology of the ricochet impact site alone. However, the substantial amount of overlap this study documented among distinct bullet types' ricochet mark morphologies under highly controlled conditions and with machine learning suggests that the human identification of ricochet marks in real-world shooting incident reconstructions may be on occasion, or perhaps regularly, in error. Key points: Bullet ricochet impact sites can help with shooting incident reconstruction.A random forest machine learning algorithm classified bullet type from ricochet morphology.Results suggest that unknown bullets can potentially be determined from ricochet impact site morphology.Human identification of bullet types from ricochet sites may be erroneous.

Modeling the social drivers of environmental sustainability among Amazonian indigenous lands using Bayesian networks.

Amazonia is an invaluable global asset for all its ecological and cultural significance. Indigenous peoples and their lands are pivotal in safeguarding this unique biodiversity and mitigating global climate change. Understanding the causal structure behind variation in the degree of environmental conservation across different indigenous lands-each with varying institutional, legal, and socioenvironmental conditions-is an essential source of information in the struggle for long-term sustainable management of Amazonian ecosystems. Here, we use data from the Instituto Socioambiental for 361 indigenous lands in the Brazilian Amazon coded for environmental integrity, territorial integrity, legal stability, indigenous governance, and threats due to infrastructure projects. Using Bayesian networks to learn the causal structure amongst these variables reveals two causal pathways leading to environmental integrity. One causal pathway starts with territorial integrity and is mediated by infrastructure projects, while the other is directly from legal stability. Hence, safeguarding indigenous lands from exploitation is best accomplished via legal land rights and stricter enforcement instead of placing the onus on indigenous governance, which is also a direct outcome of legal stability.

Effects of Voice Pitch on Social Perceptions Vary With Relational Mobility and Homicide Rate.

Fundamental frequency ( fo) is the most perceptually salient vocal acoustic parameter, yet little is known about how its perceptual influence varies across societies. We examined how fo affects key social perceptions and how socioecological variables modulate these effects in 2,647 adult listeners sampled from 44 locations across 22 nations. Low male fo increased men's perceptions of formidability and prestige, especially in societies with higher homicide rates and greater relational mobility in which male intrasexual competition may be more intense and rapid identification of high-status competitors may be exigent. High female fo increased women's perceptions of flirtatiousness where relational mobility was lower and threats to mating relationships may be greater. These results indicate that the influence of fo on social perceptions depends on socioecological variables, including those related to competition for status and mates.

Remote sensing evidence for population growth of isolated indigenous societies in Amazonia.

Isolated indigenous societies who actively avoid sustained peaceful contact with the outside world are critically endangered. Last year, "Tanaru", the lone surviving man of his tribe for at least 35 years, died in Southwest Amazonia, marking the latest cultural extinction event in a long history of massacres, enslavement, and epidemics. Yet in the upper reaches of the Amazon Basin, dozens of resilient isolated tribes still manage to survive. Remote sensing is a reliable method of monitoring the population dynamics of uncontacted populations by quantifying the area cleared for gardens and villages, along with the fire detections associated with the burning of those clearings. Remote sensing also provides a method to document the number of residential structures and village fissioning. Only with these longitudinal assessments can we better evaluate the current no-contact policies by the United Nations and governments, along with the prospects for the long-term survival of isolated tribes. While the world's largest isolated indigenous metapopulation, Pano speakers in Acre, Brazil, appears to be thriving, other smaller isolated populations disconnected from metapopulations continue to be extremely vulnerable to external threats. Our applied anthropological conservation approach is to provide analyses of publicly available remote sensing datasets to help inform policies that enhance the survival and well-being of isolated cultural groups.

Hafted technologies likely reduced stone tool-related selective pressures acting on the hominin hand.

The evolution of the hominin hand has been widely linked to the use and production of flaked stone tool technologies. After the earliest handheld flake tools emerged, shifts in hominin hand anatomy allowing for greater force during precision gripping and ease when manipulating objects in-hand are observed in the fossil record. Previous research has demonstrated how biometric traits, such as hand and digit lengths and precision grip strength, impact functional performance and ergonomic relationships when using flake and core technologies. These studies are consistent with the idea that evolutionary selective pressures would have favoured individuals better able to efficiently and effectively produce and use flaked stone tools. After the advent of composite technologies during the Middle Stone Age and Middle Palaeolithic, fossil evidence reveals differences in hand anatomy between populations, but there is minimal evidence for an increase in precision gripping capabilities. Furthermore, there is little research investigating the selective pressures, if any, impacting manual anatomy after the introduction of hafted composite stone technologies ('handles'). Here we investigated the possible influence of tool-user biometric variation on the functional performance of 420 hafted Clovis knife replicas. Our results suggest there to be no statistical relationships between biometric variables and cutting performance. Therefore, we argue that the advent of hafted stone technologies may have acted as a 'performance equaliser' within populations and removed (or reduced) selective pressures favouring forceful precision gripping capabilities, which in turn could have increased the relative importance of cultural evolutionary selective pressures in the determination of a stone tool's performance.

Atlatl use equalizes female and male projectile weapon velocity.

The atlatl is a handheld, rod-shaped device that employs leverage to launch a dart, and represents a major human technological innovation. One hypothesis for forager atlatl adoption over its presumed predecessor, the thrown javelin, is that a diverse array of people could achieve equal performance results, thereby facilitating inclusive participation of more people in hunting activities. We tested this hypothesis via a systematic assessment of 2160 weapon launch events by 108 people who used both technologies. Our results show that, unlike the javelin, the atlatl equalizes the velocity of female- and male-launched projectiles. This result indicates that a javelin to atlatl transition would have promoted a unification, rather than division, of labor. Moreover, our results suggest that female and male interments with atlatl weaponry should be interpreted similarly.

Predicting the geographic distribution of ancient Amazonian archaeological sites with machine learning.

Amazonia has as least two major centers of ancient human social complexity, but the full geographic extents of these centers remain uncertain. Across the southern rim of Amazonia, over 1,000 earthwork sites comprised of fortified settlements, mound villages, and ditched enclosures with geometric designs known as geoglyphs have been discovered. Qualitatively distinct and densely located along the lower stretches of major river systems and the Atlantic coast are Amazonian Dark Earth sites (ADEs) with deep anthropogenic soils enriched by long-term human habitation. Models predicting the geographic extents of earthworks and ADEs can assist in their discovery and preservation and help answer questions about the full degree of indigenous landscape modifications across Amazonia. We classify earthworks versus ADEs versus other non-earthwork/non-ADE archaeological sites with multi-class machine learning algorithms using soils, climate, and distances to rivers of different types and sizes as geospatial predictors. Model testing is done with spatial cross-validation, and the best model at the optimal spatial scale of 1 km has an Area Under the Curve of 0.91. Our predictive model has led to the discovery of 13 new geoglyphs, and it pinpoints specific areas with high probabilities of undiscovered archaeological sites that are currently hidden by rainforests. The limited, albeit impressive, predicted extents of earthworks and ADEs means that other non-ADE/non-earthwork sites are expected to predominate most of Western and Northern Amazonia.

Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures.

Across the planet the biogeographic distribution of human cultural diversity tends to correlate positively with biodiversity. In this paper we focus on the biogeographic distribution of mammal species and human cultural diversity. We show that not only are these forms of diversity similarly distributed in space, but they both scale superlinearly with environmental production. We develop theory that explains that as environmental productivity increases the ecological kinetics of diversity increases faster than expected because more complex environments are also more interactive. Using biogeographic databases of the global distributions of mammal species and human cultures we test a series of hypotheses derived from this theory and find support for each. For both mammals and cultures, we show that (1) both forms of diversity increase exponentially with ecological kinetics; (2) the kinetics of diversity is faster than the kinetics of productivity; (3) diversity scales superlinearly with environmental productivity; and (4) the kinetics of diversity is faster in increasingly productive environments. This biogeographic convergence is particularly striking because while the dynamics of biological and cultural evolution may be similar in principle the underlying mechanisms and time scales are very different. However, a common currency underlying all forms of diversity is ecological kinetics; the temperature-dependent fluxes of energy and biotic interactions that sustain all forms of life at all levels of organization. Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures because ecological kinetics drives superlinear scaling with environmental productivity.

Scaling human sociopolitical complexity.

Human societies exhibit a diversity of social organizations that vary widely in size, structure, and complexity. Today, human sociopolitical complexity ranges from stateless small-scale societies of a few hundred individuals to complex states of millions, most of this diversity evolving only over the last few hundred years. Understanding how sociopolitical complexity evolved over time and space has always been a central focus of the social sciences. Yet despite this long-term interest, a quantitative understanding of how sociopolitical complexity varies across cultures is not well developed. Here we use scaling analysis to examine the statistical structure of a global sample of over a thousand human societies across multiple levels of sociopolitical complexity. First, we show that levels of sociopolitical complexity are self-similar as adjacent levels of jurisdictional hierarchy see a four-fold increase in population size, a two-fold increase in geographic range, and therefore a doubling of population density. Second, we show how this self-similarity leads to the scaling of population size and geographic range. As societies increase in complexity population density is reconfigured in space and quantified by scaling parameters. However, there is considerable overlap in population metrics across all scales suggesting that while more complex societies tend to have larger and denser populations, larger and denser populations are not necessarily more complex.

Nonlinear diversification rates of linguistic phylogenies over the Holocene.

The expansion of the human species out of Africa in the Pleistocene, and the subsequent development of agriculture in the Holocene, resulted in waves of linguistic diversification and replacement across the planet. Analogous to the growth of populations or the speciation of biological organisms, languages diversify over time to form phylogenies of language families. However, the dynamics of this diversification process are unclear. Bayesian methods applied to lexical and phonetic data have created dated linguistic phylogenies for 18 language families encompassing ~3,000 of the world's ~7,000 extant languages. In this paper we use these phylogenies to quantify how fast languages expand and diversify through time both within and across language families. The overall diversification rate of languages in our sample is ~0.001 yr-1 (or a doubling time of ~700 yr) over the last 6,000 years with evidence for nonlinear dynamics in language diversification rates over time, where both within and across language families, diversity initially increases rapidly and then slows. The expansion, evolution, and diversification of languages as they spread around the planet was a non-constant process.

Machine learning with remote sensing data to locate uncontacted indigenous villages in Amazonia.

BACKGROUND: The world's last uncontacted indigenous societies in Amazonia have only intermittent and often hostile interactions with the outside world. Knowledge of their locations is essential for urgent protection efforts, but their extreme isolation, small populations, and semi-nomadic lifestyles make this a challenging task. METHODS: Remote sensing technology with Landsat satellite sensors is a non-invasive methodology to track isolated indigenous populations through time. However, the small-scale nature of the deforestation signature left by uncontacted populations clearing villages and gardens has similarities to those made by contacted indigenous villages. Both contacted and uncontacted indigenous populations often live in proximity to one another making it difficult to distinguish the two in satellite imagery. Here we use machine learning techniques applied to remote sensing data with a training dataset of 500 contacted and 25 uncontacted villages. RESULTS: Uncontacted villages generally have smaller cleared areas, reside at higher elevations, and are farther from populated places and satellite-detected lights at night. A random forest algorithm with an optimally-tuned detection cutoff has a leave-one-out cross-validated sensitivity and specificity of over 98%. A grid search around known uncontacted villages led us to identify three previously-unknown villages using predictions from the random forest model. Our efforts can improve policies toward isolated populations by providing better near real-time knowledge of their locations and movements in relation to encroaching loggers, settlers, and other external threats to their survival.

Sexual selection on male vocal fundamental frequency in humans and other anthropoids.

In many primates, including humans, the vocalizations of males and females differ dramatically, with male vocalizations and vocal anatomy often seeming to exaggerate apparent body size. These traits may be favoured by sexual selection because low-frequency male vocalizations intimidate rivals and/or attract females, but this hypothesis has not been systematically tested across primates, nor is it clear why competitors and potential mates should attend to vocalization frequencies. Here we show across anthropoids that sexual dimorphism in fundamental frequency (F0) increased during evolutionary transitions towards polygyny, and decreased during transitions towards monogamy. Surprisingly, humans exhibit greater F0 sexual dimorphism than any other ape. We also show that low-F0 vocalizations predict perceptions of men's dominance and attractiveness, and predict hormone profiles (low cortisol and high testosterone) related to immune function. These results suggest that low male F0 signals condition to competitors and mates, and evolved in male anthropoids in response to the intensity of mating competition.

Return rates from intertidal foraging from Blombos Cave to Pinnacle Point: Understanding early human economies.

The south coast of South Africa provides the earliest evidence for Middle Stone Age (MSA) coastal resource exploitation by early Homo sapiens. In coastal archaeology worldwide, there has been a debate over the general productivity of intertidal foraging, leading to studies that directly measure productivity in some regions, but there have been no such studies in South Africa. Here we present energetic return rate estimates for intertidal foraging along the southern coast of South Africa from Blombos Cave to Pinnacle Point. Foraging experiments were conducted with Khoi-San descendants of the region, and hourly caloric return rates for experienced foragers were measured on 41 days near low tide and through three seasons over two study years. On-site return rates varied as a function of sex, tidal level, marine habitat type and weather conditions. The overall energetic return rate from the entire sample (1492 kcal h(-1)) equals or exceeds intertidal returns reported from other hunter-gatherer studies, as well as measured return rates for activities as diverse as hunting mammals and plant collecting. Returns are projected to be exceptionally high (∼ 3400 kcal h(-1) for men, ∼ 1900 kcal h(-1) for women) under the best combination of conditions. However, because of the monthly tidal cycle, high return foraging is only possible for about 10 days per month and for only 2-3 h on those days. These experiments suggest that while intertidal resources are attractive, women and children could not have subsisted independently, nor met all their protein-lipid needs from marine resources alone, and would have required substantial additional energy and nutrients from plant gathering and/or from males contributing game.

Are Isolated Indigenous Populations Headed toward Extinction?

At least 50 indigenous groups spread across lowland South America remain isolated and have only intermittent and mostly hostile interactions with the outside world. Except in emergency situations, the current policy of governments in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru towards isolated tribes is a "leave them alone" strategy, in which isolated groups are left uncontacted. However, these no-contact policies are based on the assumption that isolated populations are healthy and capable of persisting in the face of mounting external threats, and that they can maintain population viability in the long-term. Here, we test this assumption by tracking the sizes and movements of cleared horticultural areas made by 8 isolated groups over the last 10-14 years. We used deforestation data derived from remote sensing Landsat satellite sensors to identify clearings, and those were then validated and assessed with high-resolution imagery. We found only a single example of a relatively large and growing population (c. 50 cleared ha and 400 people), whereas all of the other 7 groups exhibited much smaller villages and gardens with no sizable growth through time. These results indicated that the smaller groups are critically endangered, and it prompts an urgent re-thinking of policies toward isolated populations, including plans for well-organized contacts that may help save lives and rescue isolated indigenous populations from imminent extinction.

Comparative study of reproductive skew and pair-bond stability using genealogies from 80 small-scale human societies.

OBJECTIVES: Genealogies contain information on the prevalence of different sibling types that result from past reproductive behavior. Full sibling sets stem from stable monogamy, paternal half siblings primarily indicate male reproductive skew, and maternal half siblings reflect unstable pair bonds. METHODS: Full and half sibling types are calculated for a total of 61,181 siblings from published genealogies for 80 small-scale societies, including foragers, horticulturalists, agriculturalists, and pastoralists from around the world. RESULTS: Most siblings are full (61%) followed by paternal half siblings (27%) and maternal half siblings (13%). Paternal half siblings are positively correlated with more polygynous marriages, higher at low latitudes, and slightly higher in nonforagers, Maternal half sibling fractions are slightly higher at low latitudes but do not vary with subsistence. Partible paternity societies in Amazonia have more paternal half siblings indicating higher male reproductive skew. CONCLUSIONS: Sibling counts from genealogies provide a convenient method to simultaneously investigate the reproductive skew and pair-bond stability dimensions of human mating systems cross-culturally. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:335-342, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality from contact-related epidemics among indigenous populations in Greater Amazonia.

European expansion and contact with indigenous populations led to catastrophic depopulation primarily through the introduction of novel infectious diseases to which native peoples had limited exposure and immunity. In the Amazon Basin such contacts continue to occur with more than 50 isolated indigenous societies likely to make further contacts with the outside world in the near future. Ethnohistorical accounts are useful for quantifying trends in the severity and frequency of epidemics through time and may provide insight into the likely demographic consequences of future contacts. Here we compile information for 117 epidemics that affected 59 different indigenous societies in Greater Amazonia and caused over 11,000 deaths between 1875 and 2008, mostly (75%) from measles, influenza, and malaria. Results show that mortality rates from epidemics decline exponentially through time and, independently, with time since peaceful contact. The frequency of documented epidemics also decreases with time since contact. While previous work on virgin soil epidemics generally emphasizes the calamity of contacts, we focus instead on improvements through time. The prospects for better survivorship during future contacts are good provided modern health care procedures are implemented immediately.

Geographic distribution of isolated indigenous societies in Amazonia and the efficacy of indigenous territories.

The headwaters of the Amazon Basin harbor most of the world's last indigenous peoples who have limited contact with encroaching colonists. Knowledge of the geographic distribution of these isolated groups is essential to assist with the development of immediate protections for vulnerable indigenous settlements. We used remote sensing to document the locations of 28 isolated villages within the four Brazilian states of Acre, Amazonas, Roraima, and Rondônia. The sites were confirmed during previous over-flights and by image evidence of thatched-roof houses; they are estimated to host over 1,700 individuals. Locational data were used to train maximum entropy models that identified landscape and anthropogenic features associated with the occurrence of isolated indigenous villages, including elevation, proximity to streams of five different orders, proximity to roads and settlements, proximity to recent deforestation, and vegetation cover type. Isolated villages were identified at mid elevations, within 20 km of the tops of watersheds and at greater distances from existing roads and trails. We further used model results, combined with boundaries of the existing indigenous territory system that is designed to protect indigenous lands, to assess the efficacy of the existing protected area network for isolated peoples. Results indicate that existing indigenous territories encompass all of the villages we identified, and 50% of the areas with high predicted probabilities of isolated village occurrence. Our results are intended to help inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to isolated peoples.

Co-father relationships among the Suruí (Paiter) of Brazil.

Partible paternity refers to the conception belief that children can have multiple fathers ("co-fathers") and is common to indigenous cultures of lowland South America. The nature of social relationships observed between co-fathers reveals information about the reproductive strategies underlying partible paternity. Here we analyze clan, genealogical, and social relationships between co-fathers for the Suruí, an indigenous horticultural population in Brazil. We show that co-fathers roughly assort into two separate categories. In the affiliative category, co-father relationships are amicable when they are between close kin, namely brothers and father-son. In the competitive category, relationships are more likely of avoidance or open hostility when between more distant kin such as cousins or unrelated men of different clans. Results therefore imply multiple types of relationships, including both cooperative and competitive contexts, under the rubric of partible paternity. These complexities of partible paternity institutions add to our knowledge of the full range of cross-cultural variation in human mating/marriage arrangements and speak to the debate on whether or not humans should be classified as cooperative breeders.