Cross-sectional study of influenza trends and costs in Malaysia between 2016 and 2018.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: While influenza circulates year-round in Malaysia, research data on its incidence is scarce. Yet, this information is vital to the improvement of public health through evidence-based policies. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to determine the trends and financial costs of influenza. METHODS: Data for the years 2016 through 2018 were gathered retrospectively from several sources. These were existing Ministry of Health (MOH) influenza sentinel sites data, two teaching hospitals, and two private medical institutions in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Expert consensus determined the final estimates of burden for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). Economic burden was estimated separately using secondary data supplemented by MOH casemix costing. RESULTS: Altogether, data for 11,652 cases of ILI and 5,764 cases of SARI were extracted. The influenza B subtype was found to be predominant in 2016, while influenza A was more prevalent in 2017 and 2018. The distribution timeline revealed that the highest frequency of cases occurred in March and April of all three years. The costs of influenza amounted to MYR 310.9 million over the full three-year period. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides valuable insights into the dynamic landscape of influenza in Malaysia. The findings reveal a consistent year-round presence of influenza with irregular seasonal peaks, including a notable influenza A epidemic in 2017 and consistent surges in influenza B incidence during March across three years. These findings underscore the significance of continuous monitoring influenza subtypes for informed healthcare strategies as well as advocate for the integration of influenza vaccination into Malaysia's national immunization program, enhancing overall pandemic preparedness.

Forecasting New Tuberculosis Cases in Malaysia: A Time-Series Study Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model.

Background The application of the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely employed in predicting cases of infectious diseases. It has shown a positive impact on public health early warning surveillance due to its capability in producing reliable forecasting values. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for new tuberculosis (TB) cases using time-series data from January 2013 to December 2018 in Malaysia and to forecast monthly new TB cases for 2019. Materials and methods The ARIMA model was executed using data gathered between January 2013 and December 2018 in Malaysia. Subsequently, the well-fitted model was employed to make projections for new TB cases in the year 2019. To assess the efficacy of the model, two key metrics were utilized: the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and stationary R-squared. Furthermore, the sufficiency of the model was validated via the Ljung-Box test. Results The results of this study revealed that the ARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model proved to be the most suitable choice, exhibiting the lowest MAPE value of 6.762. The new TB cases showed a clear seasonality with two peaks occurring in March and December. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 55.8% with a p-value (Ljung-Box test) of 0.356. Conclusions The application of the ARIMA model has developed a simple, precise, and low-cost forecasting model that provides a warning six months in advance for monitoring the TB epidemic in Malaysia, which exhibits a seasonal pattern.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Health Care Services in Low- or Middle-Income Countries: Protocol for a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Heat waves significantly impact ecosystems and human health, especially that of vulnerable populations, and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Besides being directly related to climate-sensitive health outcomes, heat waves have indirectly increased the burden on our health care systems. Although the existing literature examines the impact of heat waves and morbidity, past research has mostly been conducted in high-income countries (HICs), and studies on the impact of heat waves on morbidity in low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) are still scarce. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents the protocol for a systematic review that aims to provide evidence of the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs. METHODS: We will identify peer-reviewed studies from 3 online databases, including the Web of Science, PubMed, and SCOPUS, published from January 2002 to April 2023, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Quality assessment will be conducted using the Navigation Guide checklist. Key search terms include heatwaves, extreme heat, hospitalization, outpatient visit, burden, health services, and morbidity. RESULTS: This systematic review will provide insight into the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs, especially on emergency department visits, ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, outpatient department visits, in-hospital mortality, and health care operational costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this review are anticipated to help policymakers and key stakeholders obtain a better understanding of the impact of heat waves on health care services and prioritize investments to mitigate the effects of heat waves in LMICs. This entails creating a comprehensive heat wave plan and ensuring that adequate infrastructure, capacity, and human resources are allocated in the health care sector. These measures will undoubtedly contribute to the development of resilience in health care systems and hence protect the health and well-being of individuals and communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022365471; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=365471. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/44702.

Investigation of the impacts of climate change and rising temperature on food poisoning cases in Malaysia.

This study is an attempt to investigate climate-induced increases in morbidity rates of food poisoning cases. Monthly food poisoning cases, average monthly meteorological data, and population data from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Malaysian Ministry of Health, Malaysian Meteorological Department, and Department of Statistics Malaysia, respectively. Poisson generalised linear models were developed to assess the association between climatic parameters and the number of reported food poisoning cases. The findings revealed that the food poisoning incidence in Malaysia during the 11 years study period was 561 cases per 100 000 population for the whole country. Among the cases, females and the ethnic Malays most frequently experienced food poisoning with incidence rates of 313 cases per 100,000 and 438 cases per 100,000 population over the period of 11 years, respectively. Most of the cases occurred within the active age of 13 to 35 years old. Temperature gave a significant impact on the incidence of food poisoning cases in Selangor (95% CI: 1.033-1.479; p = 0.020), Melaka (95% CI: 1.046-2.080; p = 0.027), Kelantan (95% CI: 1.129-1.958; p = 0.005), and Sabah (95% CI: 1.127-2.690; p = 0.012) while rainfall was a protective factor in Terengganu (95% CI: 0.996-0.999; p = 0.034) at lag 0 month. For a 1.0°C increase in temperature, the excess risk of food poisoning in each state can increase up to 74.1%, whereas for every 50 mm increase in rainfall, the risk of getting food poisoning decreased by almost 10%. The study concludes that climate does affect the distribution of food poisoning cases in Selangor, Melaka, Kelantan, Sabah, and Terengganu. Food poisoning cases in other states are not directly associated with temperature but related to monthly trends and seasonality.

Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region. RESULTS: Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant. CONCLUSION: This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

Health impacts from TRAPs and carbon emissions in the projected electric vehicle growth and energy generation mix scenarios in Malaysia.

Road transport contributes over 70% of air pollution in urban areas and is the second largest contributor to the total carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia at 21% in 2016. Transport-related air pollutants (TRAPs) such as NOx, SO2, CO and particulate matter (PM) pose significant threats to the urban population's health. Malaysia has targeted to deploy 885,000 EV cars on the road by 2030 in the Low Carbon Mobility Blueprint (LCMB). This study aims to quantify the health co-benefits of electric vehicle adoption from their impacts on air quality in Malaysia. Two EV uptake projections, i.e. LCMB and Revised EV Adoption (REVA) projections, and five electricity generation mix scenarios were modelled up to 2040. We used comparative health risk assessment to estimate the potential changes in mortality and burden of diseases (BoD) from the emissions in each scenario. Intake fractions and exposure-risk functions were used to calculate the burden from respiratory diseases (PM2.5, NOx, SO2, CO), cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer (PM2.5). Results showed that along with a net reduction of carbon emissions across all scenarios, there could be reduced respiratory mortality from NOx by 10,200 mortality (176,200 DALYs) and SO2 by 2600 mortality (45,400 DALYs) per year in 2040. However, there could also be additional 719 mortality (9900 DALYs) per year from PM2.5 and 329 mortality (5600 DALYs) from CO per year. The scale of reduction in mortality and BoD from NOx and SO2 are significantly larger than the scale of increase from PM2.5 and CO, indicating potential net positive health impacts from the EV adoption in the scenarios. The health cost savings from the reduced BoD of respiratory mortality could reach up to RM 7.5 billion per year in 2040. In conclusion, EV is a way forward in promoting a healthy and sustainable future transport in Malaysia.

Health Education Module Based on Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills (IMB) for Reducing Depression, Anxiety, and Stress among Adolescents in Boarding Schools: A Clustered Randomised Controlled Trial.

Depression, anxiety, and stress (DAS) among adolescents have become a public health concern. The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and measure an IMB-based health education intervention module for reducing DAS among adolescents in boarding schools in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. A single-blinded cluster randomised control trial (RCT) was conducted among students with abnormal DASS-21 scores. They were divided into an intervention group (three schools, 62 participants) and a control group (three schools, 57 participants). Participants in the intervention group received IMB-based health education, while participants in the control group underwent the standard care session. To determine the effectiveness of the intervention, the Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) analysis was conducted. A total of 119 students participated in this study, and no loss to follow-up was reported. Both intervention and control groups showed significantly reduced DAS scores (p < 0.005). However, the reduction of these scores was greater in the intervention group. The GLMM analysis revealed that the intervention was effective in reducing depression (ß = -2.400, t = -3.102, SE = 0.7735, p = 0.002, 95% CI = -3.921, -0.878), anxiety (ß = -2.129, t = -2.824, SE = 0.7541, p = 0.005, 95% CI = -3.612, -0.646), and stress (ß = -1.335, t = -2.457, SE = 0.536, p = 0.015, 95% CI = -2.045, -0.266) among adolescents. The IMB-based health education module was effective in reducing DAS among adolescents in boarding schools.

Environmental variable importance for under-five mortality in Malaysia: A random forest approach.

BACKGROUND: Environmental factors have been associated with adverse health effects in epidemiological studies. The main exposure variable is usually determined via prior knowledge or statistical methods. It may be challenging when evidence is scarce to support prior knowledge, or to address collinearity issues using statistical methods. This study aimed to investigate the importance level of environmental variables for the under-five mortality in Malaysia via random forest approach. METHOD: We applied a conditional permutation importance via a random forest (CPI-RF) approach to evaluate the relative importance of the weather- and air pollution-related environmental factors on daily under-five mortality in Malaysia. This study spanned from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. In data preparation, deviation mortality counts were derived through a generalized additive model, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality. Analyses were conducted considering mortality causes (all-cause, natural-cause, or external-cause) and data structures (continuous, categorical, or all types [i.e., include all variables of continuous type and all variables of categorical type]). The main analysis comprised of two stages. In Stage 1, Boruta selection was applied for preliminary screening to remove highly unimportant variables. In Stage 2, the retained variables from Boruta were used in the CPI-RF analysis. The final importance value was obtained as an average value from a 10-fold cross-validation. RESULT: Some heat-related variables (maximum temperature, heat wave), temperature variability, and haze-related variables (PM10, PM10-derived haze index, PM10- and fire-derived haze index, fire hotspot) were among the prominent variables associated with under-five mortality in Malaysia. The important variables were consistent for all- and natural-cause mortality and sensitivity analyses. However, different most important variables were observed between natural- and external-cause under-five mortality. CONCLUSION: Heat-related variables, temperature variability, and haze-related variables were consistently prominent for all- and natural-cause under-five mortalities, but not for external-cause.

Children's exposure to air pollution in a natural gas industrial area and their risk of hospital admission for respiratory diseases.

The rapid expansion of the natural gas industry to meet the global demand have raised environmental health concerns. Few studies have found that areas with natural gas industrial activity have poor air quality. However, the negative health impacts of ambient air pollution in a natural gas industrial area remain unclear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children in a natural gas industrial area in Bintulu, Malaysia. Daily hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children were collected from a hospital in Bintulu from 2010 to 2019. Data on six air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) in the study area were obtained from the Department of Environment Malaysia. Quasi-Poisson time series regressions with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were applied to explore the associations between ambient air pollution and childhood hospitalisations for respiratory diseases. Stratification analyses were performed by gender and age group to identify the vulnerable populations. A 10 µg/m3 increased PM2.5 and SO2 was associated with hospital admissions for respiratory diseases among children with the greatest relative risk of RR 1.089 (95% CI 1.001-1.183) at cumulative lag 0-2 days and RR 1.229 (95% CI 1.073-1.409) at cumulative lag 0-6 days, respectively. There was no significant association between short-term exposure of PM10, NO2, CO, and O3 with childhood respiratory hospitalisation. The association between PM2.5 and SO2 exposure and hospital admissions for childhood respiratory diseases in the two pollutants model remained statistically significant. There were stronger associations in younger children aged 0-4 years and girls. This study reveals that short-term exposure to SO2 was associated with a higher risk of respiratory hospitalisations among children in Bintulu than PM2.5. Better air quality control is necessary for children's health living in the natural gas industrial area.

Investigation of association between smoke haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia, accounting for time lag, duration and intensity.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the association between smoke haze (hereafter 'haze') and adverse health effects have increased in recent years due to extreme weather conditions and the increased occurrence of vegetation fires. The possible adverse health effects on under-five children (U5Y) is especially worrying due to their vulnerable condition. Despite continuous repetition of serious haze occurrence in Southeast Asia, epidemiological studies in this region remained scarce. Furthermore, no study had examined the association accounting for three important aspects (time lag, duration and intensity) concurrently. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the association between haze and U5Y mortality in Malaysia, considering time lag, duration and intensity of exposure. METHODS: We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study using a generalized additive model to examine the U5Y mortality related to haze in 12 districts in Malaysia, spanning from 2014 to 2016. A 'haze day' was characterized by intensity [based on concentrations of particulate matter (PM)] and duration (continuity of haze occurrence, up to 3 days). RESULTS: We observed the highest but non-significant odds ratios (ORs) of U5Y mortality at lag 4 of Intensity-3. Lag patterns revealed the possibility of higher acuteness at prolonged and intensified haze. Stratifying the districts by the 95th-percentile of PM distribution, the 'low' category demonstrated marginal positive association at Intensity-2 Duration-3 [OR: 1.210 (95% confidence interval: 1.000, 1.464)]. CONCLUSIONS: We found a null association between haze and U5Y mortality. The different lag patterns of the association observed over different duration and intensity suggest consideration of these aspects in future studies.

Fish consumption pattern among adults of different ethnics in Peninsular Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding different patterns of fish consumption is an important component for risk assessment of contaminants in fish. A few studies on food consumption had been conducted in Malaysia, but none of them focused specifically on fish consumption. The objectives of this study were to document the meal pattern among three major ethnics in Malaysia with respect to fish/seafood consumption, identify most frequently consumed fish and cooking method, and examine the influence of demographic factors on pattern of fish consumption among study subjects. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between February 2008 and May 2009 to investigate patterns of fish consumption among Malaysian adults in Peninsular Malaysia. Adults aged 18 years and above were randomly selected and fish consumption data were collected using a 3-day prospective food diary. RESULTS: A total of 2,675 subjects, comprising male (44.2%) and female (55.7%) participants from major ethnics (Malays, 76.9%; Chinese, 14.7%; Indians, 8.3%) with a mean age of 43.4±16.2 years, were involved in this study. The results revealed 10 most frequently consumed marine fish in descending order: Indian mackerel, anchovy, yellowtail and yellow-stripe scads, tuna, sardines, torpedo scad, Indian and short-fin scads, pomfret, red snapper, and king mackerel. Prawn and squid were also among the most preferred seafood by study subjects. The most frequently consumed freshwater fish were freshwater catfish and snakehead. The most preferred cooking style by Malaysians was deep-fried fish, followed by fish cooked in thick and/or thin chili gravy, fish curry, and fish cooked with coconut milk mixed with other spices and flavorings. Overall, Malaysians consumed 168 g/day fish, with Malay ethnics' (175±143 g/day) consumption of fish significantly (p<0.001) higher compared with the other two ethnic groups (Chinese=152±133 g/day, Indians=136±141 g/day). CONCLUSION: Fish consumption was significantly associated with ethnicity, age, marital status, residential area, and years of education of adults in Peninsular Malaysia, and the data collected are beneficial for the purpose of health risk assessment on the intake of contaminants through fish/seafood consumption.

Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

Non-practice of breast self examination and marital status are associated with delayed presentation with breast cancer.

Delay in seeking treatment for breast cancer is a barrier to the early diagnosis and management of the disease, resulting in a poorer prognosis. We here estimated the prevalence of delayed presentation for breast cancer and identified possible influential sociodemographic factors in a cross-sectional study of 250 patients diagnosed with primary breast cancer at the Radiotherapy and Oncology Clinic in Kuala Lumpur Hospital. Data were collected by face-to-face interview using a structured questionnaire and from medical records. We examined associations between delayed presentation (presenting to a physician more than 3 months after self-discovery of a symptom) and sociodemographic characteristics, practice of breast self examination (BSE), history of benign breast disease, family history of breast cancer and type of symptom, symptom disclosure and advice from others to seek treatment using multiple logistic regression. Time from self-discovery of symptom to presentation ranged from tghe same day to 5 years. Prevalence of delayed presentation was 33.1% (95%CI: 27.4, 39.3). A significantly higher proportion of delayers presented with late stages (stage III/IV) (58.3% vs. 26.9%, p<0.001). Divorced or widowed women (OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.11, 4.47) had a higher risk of delayed presentation than married women and women who never performed breast self examination were more likely to delay presentation compared to those who regularly performed BSE (OR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.33, 5.64). Our findings indicate that delayed presentation for breast cancer symptoms among Malaysian women is high and that marital status and breast self examination play major roles in treatment-seeking for breast cancer symptoms.