Deep learning to predict rapid progression of Alzheimer's disease from pooled clinical trials: A retrospective study.

The rate of progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) differs dramatically between patients. Identifying the most is critical because when their numbers differ between treated and control groups, it distorts the outcome, making it impossible to tell whether the treatment was beneficial. Much recent effort, then, has gone into identifying RPs. We pooled de-identified placebo-arm data of three randomized controlled trials (RCTs), EXPEDITION, EXPEDITION 2, and EXPEDITION 3, provided by Eli Lilly and Company. After processing, the data included 1603 mild-to-moderate AD patients with 80 weeks of longitudinal observations on neurocognitive health, brain volumes, and amyloid-beta (Aß) levels. RPs were defined by changes in four neurocognitive/functional health measures. We built deep learning models using recurrent neural networks with attention mechanisms to predict RPs by week 80 based on varying observation periods from baseline (e.g., 12, 28 weeks). Feature importance scores for RP prediction were computed and temporal feature trajectories were compared between RPs and non-RPs. Our evaluation and analysis focused on models trained with 28 weeks of observation. The models achieved robust internal validation area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROCs) ranging from 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) to 0.82 (0.81-0.83), and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRCs) from 0.34 (0.32-0.36) to 0.46 (0.44-0.49). External validation AUROCs ranged from 0.75 (0.70-0.81) to 0.83 (0.82-0.84) and AUPRCs from 0.27 (0.25-0.29) to 0.45 (0.43-0.48). Aß plasma levels, regional brain volumetry, and neurocognitive health emerged as important factors for the model prediction. In addition, the trajectories were stratified between predicted RPs and non-RPs based on factors such as ventricular volumes and neurocognitive domains. Our findings will greatly aid clinical trialists in designing tests for new medications, representing a key step toward identifying effective new AD therapies.

Characterizing Treatment Non-responders vs. Responders in Completed Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients have varying responses to AD drugs and there may be no single treatment for all AD patients. Trial after trial shows that identifying non-responsive and responsive subgroups and their corresponding moderators will provide better insights into subject selection and interpretation in future clinical trials. We aim to extensively investigate pre-treatment features that moderate treatment effect of Galantamine, Bapineuzumab, and Semagacestat from completed trial data. We obtained individual-level patient data from ten randomized clinical trials. Six Galantamine trials and two Bapineuzumab trials were from Yale University Open Data Access Project and two Semagacestat trials were from the Center for Global Clinical Research Data. We included a total of 10,948 subjects. The trials were conducted worldwide from 2001 to 2012. We estimated treatment effect using causal forest modeling on each trial. Finally, we identified important pre-treatment features that determine treatment efficacy and identified responsive or nonresponsive subgroups. As a result, patient's pre-treatment conditions that determined the treatment efficacy of Galantamine differed by dementia stages, but we consistently observed that non-responders in Galantamine trials had lower BMI (25 vs 28, P < .001) and increased ages (74 vs 68, P < .001). Responders in Bapineuzumab and Semagacestat trials had lower Aß42 levels (6.41 vs 6.53 pg/ml, P < .001) and smaller whole brain volumes (983.13 vs 1052.78 ml, P < .001). 6 'positive' treatment trials had subsets of patients who had, in fact, not responded. 4 "negative" treatment trials had subsets of patients who had, in fact, responded. This study suggests that analyzing heterogeneity in treatment effects in "positive" or "negative" trials may be a very powerful tool for identifying distinct subgroups that are responsive to treatments, which may significantly benefit future clinical trial design and interpretation.

Knowledge-guided Deep Temporal Clustering for Alzheimer's Disease Subtypes in Completed Clinical Trials.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a multifaceted neurodegenerative disorder with varied patient progression. We aim to test the hypothesis that AD patients can be categorized into subgroups based on differences in progression. We leveraged data from three randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to develop a knowledge-guided, deep temporal clustering (KG-DTC) framework for AD subtyping. This model combined autoencoders for contextual information capture, k-means clustering for representation formation, and clinical outcome classification for clinical knowledge integration. The derived representations, encompassing demographics, APOE genotype, cognitive assessments, brain volumes, and biomarkers, were clustered using the Gaussian Mixture Model to identify AD subtypes. Our novel KG-DTC framework was developed using placebo data from 2,087 AD patients across three solanezumab clinical trials (EXPEDITION, EXPEDITION2, and EXPEDITION3), achieving high performance in outcome prediction and clustering. The KG-DTC model demonstrated superior clustering structures, especially when combined with k-means clustering loss. External validation with independent clinical trial data showed consistent clustering results, with a 0.33 silhouette score for three clusters. The model's stability was confirmed through a leave-one-out approach, with an average adjusted Rand Index around 0.945. Three distinct AD subtypes were identified, each exhibiting unique patterns of cognitive function, neurodegeneration, and amyloid beta levels. Notably, Subtype 3 (S3) showed rapid cognitive decline across multiple clinical measures (e.g., 0.64 in S1 vs. -1.06 in S2 vs. 15.09 in S3 of average ADAS total change score, p<.001). This innovative approach offers promising insights for understanding variability in treatment outcomes and personalizing AD treatment strategies.

Non-invasive arterial blood pressure measurement and SpO2 estimation using PPG signal: a deep learning framework.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring blood pressure and peripheral capillary oxygen saturation plays a crucial role in healthcare management for patients with chronic diseases, especially hypertension and vascular disease. However, current blood pressure measurement methods have intrinsic limitations; for instance, arterial blood pressure is measured by inserting a catheter in the artery causing discomfort and infection. METHOD: Photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals can be collected via non-invasive devices, and therefore have stimulated researchers' interest in exploring blood pressure estimation using machine learning and PPG signals as a non-invasive alternative. In this paper, we propose a Transformer-based deep learning architecture that utilizes PPG signals to conduct a personalized estimation of arterial systolic blood pressure, arterial diastolic blood pressure, and oxygen saturation. RESULTS: The proposed method was evaluated with a subset of 1,732 subjects from the publicly available ICU dataset MIMIC III. The mean absolute error is 2.52 ± 2.43 mmHg for systolic blood pressure, 1.37 ± 1.89 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure, and 0.58 ± 0.79% for oxygen saturation, which satisfies the requirements of the Association of Advancement of Medical Instrumentation standard and achieve grades A for the British Hypertension Society standard. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that our model meets clinical standards and could potentially boost the accuracy of blood pressure and oxygen saturation measurement to deliver high-quality healthcare.