Extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) in the treatment of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD): a prospective, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial studying the addition of ECP to standard care in the treatment of bilateral lung transplant patients with CLAD (E-CLAD UK).

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival after lung transplantation is limited compared with other organ transplants. The main cause is development of progressive immune-mediated damage to the lung allograft. This damage, which can develop via multiple immune pathways, is captured under the umbrella term chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). Despite the availability of powerful immunosuppressive drugs, there are presently no treatments proven to reverse or reliably halt the loss of lung function caused by CLAD. The aim of the E-CLAD UK trial is to determine whether the addition of immunomodulatory therapy, in the form of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP), to standard care is more efficacious at stabilising lung function in CLAD compared with standard care alone. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: E-CLAD UK is a Phase II clinical trial of an investigational medicinal product (Methoxsalen) delivered to a buffy coat prepared via an enclosed ECP circuit. Target recruitment is 90 bilateral lung transplant patients identified as having CLAD and being treated at one of the five UK adult lung transplant centres. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to intervention plus standard of care, or standard of care alone. Intervention will comprise nine ECP cycles spread over 20 weeks, each course involving two treatments of ECP on consecutive days. All participants will be followed up for a period of 24 weeks.The primary outcome is lung function stabilisation derived from change in forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity at 12 and 24 weeks compared with baseline at study entry. Other parameters include change in exercise capacity, health-related quality of life and safety. A mechanistic study will seek to identify molecular or cellular markers linked to treatment response and qualitative interviews will explore patient experiences of CLAD and the ECP treatment.A patient and public advisory group is integral to the trial from design to implementation, developing material to support the consent process and interview materials. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The East Midlands-Derby Research Ethics Committee has provided ethical approval (REC 22/EM/0218). Dissemination will be via publications, patient-friendly summaries and presentation at scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT number 2022-002659-20; ISRCTN 10615985.

The mediating role of reflective functioning and general psychopathology in the relationship between childhood conduct disorder and adult aggression among offenders.

BACKGROUND: The nature of the pathway from conduct disorder (CD) in adolescence to antisocial behavior in adulthood has been debated and the role of certain mediators remains unclear. One perspective is that CD forms part of a general psychopathology dimension, playing a central role in the developmental trajectory. Impairment in reflective functioning (RF), i.e., the capacity to understand one's own and others' mental states, may relate to CD, psychopathology, and aggression. Here, we characterized the structure of psychopathology in adult male-offenders and its role, along with RF, in mediating the relationship between CD in their adolescence and current aggression. METHODS: A secondary analysis of pre-treatment data from 313 probation-supervised offenders was conducted, and measures of CD symptoms, general and specific psychopathology factors, RF, and aggression were evaluated through clinical interviews and questionnaires. RESULTS: Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a bifactor model best fitted the sample's psychopathology structure, including a general psychopathology factor (p factor) and five specific factors: internalizing, disinhibition, detachment, antagonism, and psychoticism. The structure of RF was fitted to the data using a one-factor model. According to our mediation model, CD significantly predicted the p factor, which was positively linked to RF impairments, resulting in increased aggression. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the critical role of a transdiagnostic approach provided by RF and general psychopathology in explaining the link between CD and aggression. Furthermore, they underscore the potential utility of treatments focusing on RF, such as mentalization-based treatment, in mitigating aggression in offenders with diverse psychopathologies.

Operational complexities in international clinical trials: a systematic review of challenges and proposed solutions.

OBJECTIVE: International trials can be challenging to operationalise due to incompatibilities between country-specific policies and infrastructures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the operational complexities of conducting international trials and identify potential solutions for overcoming them. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase and Health Management Information Consortium were searched from 2006 to 30 January 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: All studies reporting operational challenges (eg, site selection, trial management, intervention management, data management) of conducting international trials were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Search results were independently screened by at least two reviewers and data were extracted into a proforma. RESULTS: 38 studies (35 RCTs, 2 reports and 1 qualitative study) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median sample size was 1202 (IQR 332-4056) and median number of sites was 40 (IQR 13-78). 88.6% of studies had an academic sponsor and 80% were funded through government sources. Operational complexities were particularly reported during trial set-up due to lack of harmonisation in regulatory approvals and in relation to sponsorship structure, with associated budgetary impacts. Additional challenges included site selection, staff training, lengthy contract negotiations, site monitoring, communication, trial oversight, recruitment, data management, drug procurement and distribution, pharmacy involvement and biospecimen processing and transport. CONCLUSIONS: International collaborative trials are valuable in cases where recruitment may be difficult, diversifying participation and applicability. However, multiple operational and regulatory challenges are encountered when implementing a trial in multiple countries. Careful planning and communication between trials units and investigators, with an emphasis on establishing adequately resourced cross-border sponsorship structures and regulatory approvals, may help to overcome these barriers and realise the benefits of the approach. OPEN SCIENCE FRAMEWORK REGISTRATION NUMBER: osf-registrations-yvtjb-v1.

Defining predictors of responsiveness to advanced therapies in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis: protocol for the IBD-RESPONSE and nested CD-metaRESPONSE prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study in precision medicine.

INTRODUCTION: Characterised by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) symptoms including diarrhoea, abdominal pain and fatigue can significantly impact patient's quality of life. Therapeutic developments in the last 20 years have revolutionised treatment. However, clinical trials and real-world data show primary non-response rates up to 40%. A significant challenge is an inability to predict which treatment will benefit individual patients.Current understanding of IBD pathogenesis implicates complex interactions between host genetics and the gut microbiome. Most cohorts studying the gut microbiota to date have been underpowered, examined single treatments and produced heterogeneous results. Lack of cross-treatment comparisons and well-powered independent replication cohorts hampers the ability to infer real-world utility of predictive signatures.IBD-RESPONSE will use multi-omic data to create a predictive tool for treatment response. Future patient benefit may include development of biomarker-based treatment stratification or manipulation of intestinal microbial targets. IBD-RESPONSE and downstream studies have the potential to improve quality of life, reduce patient risk and reduce expenditure on ineffective treatments. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective, multicentre, observational study will identify and validate a predictive model for response to advanced IBD therapies, incorporating gut microbiome, metabolome, single-cell transcriptome, human genome, dietary and clinical data. 1325 participants commencing advanced therapies will be recruited from ~40 UK sites. Data will be collected at baseline, week 14 and week 54. The primary outcome is week 14 clinical response. Secondary outcomes include clinical remission, loss of response in week 14 responders, corticosteroid-free response/remission, time to treatment escalation and change in patient-reported outcome measures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the Wales Research Ethics Committee 5 (ref: 21/WA/0228). Recruitment is ongoing. Following study completion, results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific meetings. Publications will be summarised at www.ibd-response.co.uk. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN96296121.

Pulmonary Hypertension: Intensification and Personalization of Combination Rx (PHoenix): A phase IV randomized trial for the evaluation of dose-response and clinical efficacy of riociguat and selexipag using implanted technologies.

Approved therapies for the treatment of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) mediate pulmonary vascular vasodilatation by targeting distinct biological pathways. International guidelines recommend that patients with an inadequate response to dual therapy with a phosphodiesterase type-5 inhibitor (PDE5i) and endothelin receptor antagonist (ERA), are recommended to either intensify oral therapy by adding a selective prostacyclin receptor (IP) agonist (selexipag), or switching from PDE5i to a soluble guanylate-cyclase stimulator (sGCS; riociguat). The clinical equipoise between these therapeutic choices provides the opportunity for evaluation of individualized therapeutic effects. Traditionally, invasive/hospital-based investigations are required to comprehensively assess disease severity and demonstrate treatment benefits. Regulatory-approved, minimally invasive monitors enable equivalent measurements to be obtained while patients are at home. In this 2 × 2 randomized crossover trial, patients with PAH established on guideline-recommended dual therapy and implanted with CardioMEMS™ (a wireless pulmonary artery sensor) and ConfirmRx™ (an insertable cardiac rhythm monitor), will receive ERA + sGCS, or PDEi + ERA + IP agonist. The study will evaluate clinical efficacy via established clinical investigations and remote monitoring technologies, with remote data relayed through regulatory-approved online clinical portals. The primary aim will be the change in right ventricular systolic volume measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from baseline to maximal tolerated dose with each therapy. Using data from MRI and other outcomes, including hemodynamics, physical activity, physiological measurements, quality of life, and side effect reporting, we will determine whether remote technology facilitates early evaluation of clinical efficacy, and investigate intra-patient efficacy of the two treatment approaches.

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's "Consultation on proposals for legislative changes for clinical trials": a response from the Trials Methodology Research Partnership Adaptive Designs Working Group, with a focus on data sharing.

In the UK, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency consulted on proposals "to improve and strengthen the UK clinical trials legislation to help us make the UK the best place to research and develop safe and innovative medicines". The purpose of the consultation was to help finalise the proposals and contribute to the drafting of secondary legislation. We discussed these proposals as members of the Trials Methodology Research Partnership Adaptive Designs Working Group, which is jointly funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health and Care Research. Two topics arose frequently in the discussion: the emphasis on legislation, and the absence of questions on data sharing. It is our opinion that the proposals rely heavily on legislation to change practice. However, clinical trials are heterogeneous, and as a result some trials will struggle to comply with all of the proposed legislation. Furthermore, adaptive design clinical trials are even more heterogeneous than their non-adaptive counterparts, and face more challenges. Consequently, it is possible that increased legislation could have a greater negative impact on adaptive designs than non-adaptive designs. Overall, we are sceptical that the introduction of legislation will achieve the desired outcomes, with some exceptions. Meanwhile the topic of data sharing - making anonymised individual-level clinical trial data available to other investigators for further use - is entirely absent from the proposals and the consultation in general. However, as an aspect of the wider concept of open science and reproducible research, data sharing is an increasingly important aspect of clinical trials. The benefits of data sharing include faster innovation, improved surveillance of drug safety and effectiveness and decreasing participant exposure to unnecessary risk. There are already a number of UK-focused documents that discuss and encourage data sharing, for example, the Concordat on Open Research Data and the Medical Research Council's Data Sharing Policy. We strongly suggest that data sharing should be the norm rather than the exception, and hope that the forthcoming proposals on clinical trials invite discussion on this important topic.

Dual bronchodilators in Bronchiectasis study (DIBS): protocol for a pragmatic, multicentre, placebo-controlled, three-arm, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial studying bronchodilators in preventing exacerbations of bronchiectasis.

INTRODUCTION: Bronchiectasis is a long-term lung condition, with dilated bronchi, chronic inflammation, chronic infection and acute exacerbations. Recurrent exacerbations are associated with poorer clinical outcomes such as increased severity of lung disease, further exacerbations, hospitalisations, reduced quality of life and increased risk of death. Despite an increasing prevalence of bronchiectasis, there is a critical lack of high-quality studies into the disease and no treatments specifically approved for its treatment. This trial aims to establish whether inhaled dual bronchodilators (long acting beta agonist (LABA) and long acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)) taken as either a stand-alone therapy or in combination with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) reduce the number of exacerbations of bronchiectasis requiring treatment with antibiotics during a 12 month treatment period. METHODS: This is a multicentre, pragmatic, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, incorporating an internal pilot and embedded economic evaluation. 600 adult patients (≥18 years) with CT confirmed bronchiectasis will be recruited and randomised to either inhaled dual therapy (LABA+LAMA), triple therapy (LABA+LAMA+ICS) or matched placebo, in a 2:2:1 ratio (respectively). The primary outcome is the number of protocol defined exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics during the 12 month treatment period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Favourable ethical opinion was received from the North East-Newcastle and North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/NE/0020). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications, at national and international conferences, in the NIHR Health Technology Assessments journal and to participants and the public (using lay language). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15988757.

Current practices in studies applying the target trial emulation framework: a protocol for a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies represent an alternative to estimate real-world causal effects in the absence of available randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Target trial emulation is a framework for the application of RCT design principles to emulate a hypothetical open-label RCT (the hypothetical target trial) using existing observational data as the primary data source as opposed to the prospective recruitment and measurement of randomised units. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the practices of studies applying the target trial emulation framework to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will systematically search in Medline (via Ovid), Embase (via Ovid, entries from medRxiv are included), PsycINFO (via Ovid), SCOPUS, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, the ISRCTN registry and ClinicalTrials.gov for all study reports and protocols which used the trial emulation framework (without time restriction). We will extract information concerning study design, data source, analysis, results, interpretation and dissemination. Two reviewers will perform study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Disagreements between reviewers will be resolved by a third reviewer. A narrative approach will be used to synthesise and report qualitative and quantitative data. Reporting of the review will be informed by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidance (PRISMA). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as it is a protocol for a systematic review. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

Online error rate control for platform trials.

Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments under a single master protocol, where new treatment arms are added to the trial over time. Given the multiple treatment comparisons, there is the potential for inflation of the overall type I error rate, which is complicated by the fact that the hypotheses are tested at different times and are not necessarily pre-specified. Online error rate control methodology provides a possible solution to the problem of multiplicity for platform trials where a relatively large number of hypotheses are expected to be tested over time. In the online multiple hypothesis testing framework, hypotheses are tested one-by-one over time, where at each time-step an analyst decides whether to reject the current null hypothesis without knowledge of future tests but based solely on past decisions. Methodology has recently been developed for online control of the false discovery rate as well as the familywise error rate (FWER). In this article, we describe how to apply online error rate control to the platform trial setting, present extensive simulation results, and give some recommendations for the use of this new methodology in practice. We show that the algorithms for online error rate control can have a substantially lower FWER than uncorrected testing, while still achieving noticeable gains in power when compared with the use of a Bonferroni correction. We also illustrate how online error rate control would have impacted a currently ongoing platform trial.

Bayesian borrowing for basket trials with longitudinal outcomes.

Basket trials are a novel clinical trial design in which a single intervention is investigated in multiple patient subgroups, or "baskets." They offer the opportunity to share information between subgroups, potentially increasing power to detect treatment effects. Basket trials offer several advantages over running a series of separate trials, including reduced sample sizes, increased efficiency, and reduced costs. Primarily, basket trials have been undertaken in Phase II oncology settings, but could be a promising design in other areas where a shared underlying biological mechanism drives different diseases. One such area is chronic aging-related diseases. However, trials in this area frequently have longitudinal outcomes, and therefore suitable methods are needed to share information in this setting. In this paper, we extend three Bayesian borrowing methods for a basket design with continuous longitudinal endpoints. We demonstrate our methods on a real-world dataset and in a simulation study where the aim is to detect positive basketwise treatment effects. Methods are compared with standalone analysis of each basket without borrowing. Our results confirm that methods that share information can improve power to detect positive treatment effects and increase precision over independent analysis in many scenarios. In highly heterogeneous scenarios, there is a trade-off between increased power and increased risk of type I errors. Our proposed methods for basket trials with continuous longitudinal outcomes aim to facilitate their applicability in the area of aging related diseases. Choice of method should be made based on trial priorities and the expected basketwise distribution of treatment effects.

A novel nano-iron supplement versus standard treatment for iron deficiency anaemia in children 6-35 months (IHAT-GUT trial): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled non-inferiority phase II trial in The Gambia.

Background: Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is the leading cause of years lost to disability in most sub-Saharan African countries and is especially common in young children. The IHAT-GUT trial assessed the efficacy and safety of a novel nano iron supplement, which is a dietary ferritin analogue termed iron hydroxide adipate tartrate (IHAT), for the treatment of IDA in children under 3 years of age. Methods: In this single-country, randomised, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority Phase II study in The Gambia, children 6-35 months with IDA (7≤Hb < 11 g/dL and ferritin<30 µg/L) were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive either IHAT, ferrous sulphate (FeSO4) or placebo daily for 3 months (85 days). The daily iron dose was 12.5 mg Fe equivalent for FeSO4 and the estimated dose with comparable iron-bioavailability for IHAT (20 mg Fe). The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of haemoglobin response at day 85 and correction of iron deficiency. The non-inferiority margin was 0.1 absolute difference in response probability. The primary safety endpoint was moderate-severe diarrhoea analysed as incidence density and prevalence over the 3 months intervention. Secondary endpoints reported herein include hospitalisation, acute respiratory infection, malaria, treatment failures, iron handling markers, inflammatory markers, longitudinal prevalence of diarrhoea and incidence density of bloody diarrhoea. Main analyses were per-protocol (PP) and intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses. This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02941081). Findings: Between Nov 2017 and Nov 2018, 642 children were randomised into the study (214 per group) and included in the ITT analysis, the PP population included 582 children. A total of 50/177 (28.2%) children in the IHAT group achieved the primary efficacy endpoint, as compared with 42/190 (22.1%) in the FeSO4 group (OR 1.39, 80% CI 1.01-1.91, PP population) and with 2/186 (1.1%) in the placebo group. Diarrhoea prevalence was similar between groups, with 40/189 (21.2%) children in the IHAT group developing at least one episode of moderate-severe diarrhoea over the 85 days intervention, compared with 47/198 (23.7%) in the FeSO4 group (OR 1.18, 80% CI 0.86-1.62) and 40/195 (20.5%) in the placebo group (OR 0.96, 80% CI 0.7-1.33, PP population). Incidence density of moderate-severe diarrhoea was 2.66 in the IHAT group and 3.42 in the FeSO4 group (RR 0.76, 80% CI 0.59-0.99, CC-ITT population).There were 143/211 (67.8%) children with adverse events (AEs) in the IHAT group, 146/212 (68.9%) in the FeSO4 group and 143/214 (66.8%) in the placebo group. There were overall 213 diarrhoea-related AEs; 35 (28.5%) cases reported in the IHAT group compared with 51 (41.5%) cases in the FeSO4 group and 37 (30.1%) cases in the placebo group. Interpretation: In this first Phase II study conducted in young children with IDA, IHAT showed sufficient non-inferiority compared to standard-of-care FeSO4, in terms of ID correction and haemoglobin response, to warrant a definitive Phase III trial. In addition, IHAT had lower incidence of moderate-severe diarrhoea than FeSO4, with no increased adverse events in comparison with placebo. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1140952).

A randomised study of rituximab and belimumab sequential therapy in PR3 ANCA-associated vasculitis (COMBIVAS): design of the study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Sequential B cell-targeted immunotherapy with BAFF antagonism (belimumab) and B cell depletion (rituximab) may enhance B cell targeting in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) through several mechanisms. METHODS: Study design: COMBIVAS is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to assess the mechanistic effects of sequential therapy of belimumab and rituximab in patients with active PR3 AAV. The recruitment target is 30 patients who meet the criteria for inclusion in the per-protocol analysis. Thirty-six participants have been randomised to one of the two treatment groups in a 1:1 ratio: either rituximab plus belimumab or rituximab plus placebo (both groups with the same tapering corticosteroid regimen), and recruitment is now closed (final patient enrolled April 2021). For each patient, the trial will last for 2 years comprising a 12-month treatment period followed by a 12-month follow-up period. PARTICIPANTS: Participants have been recruited from five of seven UK trial sites. Eligibility criteria were age ≥ 18 years and a diagnosis of AAV with active disease (newly diagnosed or relapsing disease), along with a concurrent positive test for PR3 ANCA by ELISA. INTERVENTIONS: Rituximab 1000 mg was administered by intravenous infusions on day 8 and day 22. Weekly subcutaneous injections of 200 mg belimumab or placebo were initiated a week before rituximab on day 1 and then weekly through to week 51. All participants received a relatively low prednisolone (20 mg/day) starting dose from day 1 followed by a protocol-specified corticosteroid taper aiming for complete cessation by 3 months. OUTCOMES: The primary endpoint of this study is time to PR3 ANCA negativity. Key secondary outcomes include change from baseline in naïve, transitional, memory, plasmablast B cell subsets (by flow cytometry) in the blood at months 3, 12, 18 and 24; time to clinical remission; time to relapse; and incidence of serious adverse events. Exploratory biomarker assessments include assessment of B cell receptor clonality, B cell and T cell functional assays, whole blood transcriptomic analysis and urinary lymphocyte and proteomic analysis. Inguinal lymph node and nasal mucosal biopsies have been performed on a subgroup of patients at baseline and month 3. DISCUSSION: This experimental medicine study provides a unique opportunity to gain detailed insights into the immunological mechanisms of belimumab-rituximab sequential therapy across multiple body compartments in the setting of AAV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03967925. Registered on May 30, 2019.

Four 2×2 factorial trials of smartphone CBT to reduce subthreshold depression and to prevent new depressive episodes among adults in the community-RESiLIENT trial (Resilience Enhancement with Smartphone in LIving ENvironmenTs): a master protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The health burden due to depression is ever increasing in the world. Prevention is a key to reducing this burden. Guided internet cognitive-behavioural therapies (iCBT) appear promising but there is room for improvement because we do not yet know which of various iCBT skills are more efficacious than others, and for whom. In addition, there has been no platform for iCBT that can accommodate ongoing evolution of internet technologies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Based on our decade-long experiences in developing smartphone CBT apps and examining them in randomised controlled trials, we have developed the Resilience Training App Version 2. This app now covers five CBT skills: cognitive restructuring, behavioural activation, problem-solving, assertion training and behaviour therapy for insomnia. The current study is designed as a master protocol including four 2×2 factorial trials using this app (1) to elucidate specific efficacies of each CBT skill, (2) to identify participants' characteristics that enable matching between skills and individuals, and (3) to allow future inclusion of new skills. We will recruit 3520 participants with subthreshold depression and ca 1700 participants without subthreshold depression, to examine the short-term efficacies of CBT skills to reduce depressive symptoms in the former and to explore the long-term efficacies in preventing depression in the total sample. The primary outcome for the short-term efficacies is the change in depressive symptoms as measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 at week 6, and that for the long-term efficacies is the incidence of major depressive episodes as assessed by the computerised Composite International Diagnostic Interview by week 50. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been approved by the Ethics Committee of Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine (C1556). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000047124.

Point estimation following a two-stage group sequential trial.

Repeated testing in a group sequential trial can result in bias in the maximum likelihood estimate of the unknown parameter of interest. Many authors have therefore proposed adjusted point estimation procedures, which attempt to reduce such bias. Here, we describe nine possible point estimators within a common general framework for a two-stage group sequential trial. We then contrast their performance in five example trial settings, examining their conditional and marginal biases and residual mean square error. By focusing on the case of a trial with a single interim analysis, additional new results aiding the determination of the estimators are given. Our findings demonstrate that the uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator, whilst being marginally unbiased, often has large conditional bias and residual mean square error. If one is concerned solely about inference on progression to the second trial stage, the conditional uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator may be preferred. Two estimators, termed mean adjusted estimators, which attempt to reduce the marginal bias, arguably perform best in terms of the marginal residual mean square error. In all, one should choose an estimator accounting for its conditional and marginal biases and residual mean square error; the most suitable estimator will depend on relative desires to minimise each of these factors. If one cares solely about the conditional and marginal biases, the conditional maximum likelihood estimate may be preferred provided lower and upper stopping boundaries are included. If the conditional and marginal residual mean square error are also of concern, two mean adjusted estimators perform well.

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage preexperimental data.

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant preexperimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions, or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on preexperimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pretrial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with an elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.

Developing a predictive signature for two trial endpoints using the cross-validated risk scores method.

The existing cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design has been proposed for developing and testing the efficacy of a treatment in a high-efficacy patient group (the sensitive group) using high-dimensional data (such as genetic data). The design is based on computing a risk score for each patient and dividing them into clusters using a nonparametric clustering procedure. In some settings, it is desirable to consider the tradeoff between two outcomes, such as efficacy and toxicity, or cost and effectiveness. With this motivation, we extend the CVRS design (CVRS2) to consider two outcomes. The design employs bivariate risk scores that are divided into clusters. We assess the properties of the CVRS2 using simulated data and illustrate its application on a randomized psychiatry trial. We show that CVRS2 is able to reliably identify the sensitive group (the group for which the new treatment provides benefit on both outcomes) in the simulated data. We apply the CVRS2 design to a psychology clinical trial that had offender status and substance use status as two outcomes and collected a large number of baseline covariates. The CVRS2 design yields a significant treatment effect for both outcomes, while the CVRS approach identified a significant effect for the offender status only after prefiltering the covariates.

Bayesian sample size determination in basket trials borrowing information between subsets.

Basket trials are increasingly used for the simultaneous evaluation of a new treatment in various patient subgroups under one overarching protocol. We propose a Bayesian approach to sample size determination in basket trials that permit borrowing of information between commensurate subsets. Specifically, we consider a randomized basket trial design where patients are randomly assigned to the new treatment or control within each trial subset ("subtrial" for short). Closed-form sample size formulae are derived to ensure that each subtrial has a specified chance of correctly deciding whether the new treatment is superior to or not better than the control by some clinically relevant difference. Given prespecified levels of pairwise (in)commensurability, the subtrial sample sizes are solved simultaneously. The proposed Bayesian approach resembles the frequentist formulation of the problem in yielding comparable sample sizes for circumstances of no borrowing. When borrowing is enabled between commensurate subtrials, a considerably smaller trial sample size is required compared to the widely implemented approach of no borrowing. We illustrate the use of our sample size formulae with two examples based on real basket trials. A comprehensive simulation study further shows that the proposed methodology can maintain the true positive and false positive rates at desired levels.