Delay of gratification and adult outcomes: The Marshmallow Test does not reliably predict adult functioning.

This study extends the analytic approach conducted by Watts et al. (2018) to examine the long-term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995-1996) and survey measures at age 26 (2017-2018). Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = -.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive and construct validity of the ability to delay of gratification are discussed.

Unsettled science on longer-run effects of early education.

More rigorous research is needed on how to design programs.

Can Peers Help Sustain the Positive Effects of an Early Childhood Mathematics Intervention?

Our study assessed whether the peer environment in kindergarten and first grade affected student learning following an early mathematics intervention. We leveraged longitudinal data from a cluster-RCT to examine whether math achievement in kindergarten (n = 1,218) and first grade (n = 1,126) was affected by either the share of high-achieving classmates or the proportion of classroom peers who received a preschool math curriculum intervention. Analyses indicated that exposure to treated peers in first grade, but not kindergarten, was significantly associated with small gains in end-of-year achievement. Some analyses also suggested that average peer math achievement was generally positively related to children's kindergarten and first-grade achievement across conditions, though these results were less robust. We did not find consistent evidence to suggest that the proportion of treated peers coincided with better teaching practices. Taken together, these findings suggest that classroom peer effects may play only a limited role in sustaining early intervention effects.

Investigating if high-quality kindergarten teachers sustain the pre-K boost to children's emergent literacy skill development in North Carolina.

This study tested the hypothesis that high-quality kindergarten teachers sustain and amplify the skill development of children who participated in North Carolina's NC Pre-K program during the previous year, compared to matched non-participants (N = 17,330; 42% African American, 40% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Hispanic; 51% male; Mage = 4.5 years at fall of pre-K). Kindergarten teacher quality was measured using a "value-added" approach. NC Pre-K participants outperformed non-participants in the fall of kindergarten (ß = .22) and 11% of this boost remained evident by the spring of kindergarten. Higher value-added teachers promoted the skill development of all children (ß = .30 in the spring) but did not differentially benefit the skill development of former NC Pre-K participants compared to non-participants.

Impacts of the Chicago School Readiness Project on measures of achievement, cognitive functioning, and behavioral regulation in late adolescence.

The current paper reports long-term impacts of the Chicago School Readiness Project (CSRP) on measures of achievement, cognitive functioning, and behavioral regulation taken toward the end of students' high school careers. The CSRP was a self-regulation-focused early childhood intervention implemented in Head Start centers serving high-poverty neighborhoods in Chicago. The intervention was evaluated through a cluster randomized control trial, providing us with rare longitudinal evidence from an experimental study. However, the study was limited by issues with low power and baseline differences between experimental groups. Here, we report on follow-up data taken approximately 11-14 years after program completion, including measures of participants' (N = 430) academic achievement, executive functioning, emotional regulation, and behavioral problems, and we provide a range of analytic estimates to address the study's methodological concerns. Across our estimates, we found little evidence that the program had lasting impacts on indicators of late-adolescent functioning. Main effects were estimated with some imprecision, but nearly all models produced null effects across the broad array of outcomes considered. We also observed few indications that effects were moderated by posttreatment high school quality or later assignment to a light-touch mindset intervention. Implications for developmental theory and early childhood policy are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Understanding Heterogeneity in the Impact of Public Preschool Programs.

We examine the North Carolina Pre-K (NC Pre-K) program to test the hypothesis that observed variation in effects resulting from exposure to the program can be attributed to interactions with other environmental factors that occur before, during, or after the pre-k year. We examine student outcomes in 5th grade and test interaction effects between NC's level of investment in public pre-k and moderating factors. Our main sample includes the population of children born in North Carolina between 1987 and 2005 who later attended a public school in that state, had valid achievement data in 5th grade, and could be matched by administrative record review (n = 1,207,576; 58% White non-Hispanic, 29% Black non-Hispanic, 7% Hispanic, 6% multiracial and Other race/ethnicity). Analyses were based on a natural experiment leveraging variation in county-level funding for NC Pre-K across NC counties during each of the years the state scaled up the program. Exposure to NC Pre-K funding was defined as the per-4-year-old-child state allocation of funds to a county in a year. Regression models included child-level and county-level covariates and county and year fixed effects. Estimates indicate that a child's exposure to higher NC Pre-K funding was positively associated with that child's academic achievement 6 years later. We found no effect on special education placement or grade retention. NC Pre-K funding effects on achievement were positive for all subgroups tested, and statistically significant for most. However, they were larger for children exposed to more disadvantaged environments either before or after the pre-k experience, consistent with a compensatory model where pre-k provides a buffer against the adverse effects of prior negative environmental experiences and protection against the effects of future adverse experiences. In addition, the effect of NC Pre-K funding on achievement remained positive across most environments, supporting an additive effects model. In contrast, few findings supported a dynamic complementarity model. Instrumental variables analyses incorporating a child's NC Pre-K enrollment status indicate that program attendance increased average 5th grade achievement by approximately 20% of a standard deviation, and impacts were largest for children who were Hispanic or whose mothers had less than a high school education. Implications for the future of pre-k scale-up and developmental theory are discussed.

Attention and behavior problems in childhood predict adult financial status, health, and criminal activity: A conceptual replication and extension of Moffitt et al. (2011) using cohorts from the United States and the United Kingdom.

This study is a conceptual replication of a widely cited study by Moffitt et al. (2011) which found that attention and behavior problems in childhood (a composite of impulsive hyperactive, inattentive, and impulsive-aggressive behaviors labeled "self-control") predicted adult financial status, health, and criminal activity. Using data from longitudinal cohort studies in the United States (n = 1,168) and the United Kingdom (n = 16,506), we largely reproduced their pattern of findings that attention and behavior problems measured across the course of childhood predicted a range of adult outcomes including educational attainment (ßU.S. = -0.22, ßU.K. = -0.13) and spending time in jail (ORU.S. = 1.74, ORU.K. = 1.48). We found that associations with outcomes in education, work, and finances diminished in the presence of additional covariates for children's home environment and achievement but associations for other outcomes were more robust. We also found that attention and behavior problems across distinct periods of childhood were associated with adult outcomes. Specific attention and behavior problems showed some differences in predicting outcomes in the U.S. cohort, with attention problems predicting lower educational attainment and hyperactivity/impulsivity predicting ever spending time in jail. Together with the findings from Moffitt et al., our study makes clear that childhood attention and behavior problems are associated with a range of outcomes in adulthood for cohorts born in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s across three countries. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Child care and family processes: Bi-directional relations between child care quality, home environments, and maternal depression.

The current study examined whether within-family changes in child care quality and quantity predicted subsequent changes in home environment quality and maternal depression across early childhood (6 to 54 months of age). Data were drawn from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (n = 1239; 77% White; 48% female; data collection from 1991 to 1996), and were analyzed using Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models. Within-family increases in child care quality predicted modest increases in home environment quality (ß = .13-.17). These effects were most robust from child age 6 to 15 months. Increases in child care quality produced small, statistically non-significant, reductions in depression. Time-specific increases in child care quantity were not consistently predictive of either outcome.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on infant development and maternal mental health in the first 2 years of life.

We investigated how exogenous variation in exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic during the first year of life is related to infant development, maternal mental health, and perceived stress. Ninety-three socioeconomically diverse pregnant women were recruited before the pandemic to participate in a longitudinal study. Infants ranged in age at the beginning of lockdown (0-9.5 months old), thus experiencing different durations of pandemic exposure across the first year of life. The duration of pandemic exposure was not associated with family demographic characteristics, suggesting it captured exogenous variability. We tested associations between this exogenous variation in pandemic exposure and child and family outcomes. We also examined whether mother-reported disruptive life events were correlated with child and family outcomes. We found no association between duration of pandemic exposure in the first year of life and infant socioemotional problems, infant language development, or maternal mental health and perceived stress symptoms, at 12 or 24 months. However, we found that self-reported exposure to pandemic-related disruptive life events predicted greater maternal depression, anxiety, and perceived stress at 12 months, and greater depression and anxiety at 24 months. Socioeconomic status did not moderate these associations. These findings suggest cautious optimism for infants raised during this period.

Associations between preschool cognitive and behavioral skills and college enrollment: Evidence from the Chicago School Readiness Project.

The current article examines associations between preschool cognitive and behavioral skills and indicators of college enrollment in a sample (n = 379) of primarily Black and Hispanic youth growing up in low-income areas of Chicago. Although we found that most early cognitive and behavioral skills were only weakly or moderately related to later college enrollment, a rating of preschool attention and impulsivity control was a relatively strong predictor. Across most models tested, attention and impulsivity control, executive functioning, and effortful control produced predicted probabilities that were similar in magnitude, or larger, than the effects produced by early math and literacy. There was no indication that early behavioral difficulties were substantive predictors of college enrollment. These descriptive findings suggest that in a low-income sample of children, some early cognitive capabilities related to attention and EF predict longer term college enrollment. We discuss implications for developmental theory and suggest that caution should be applied when projecting likely effects of early skill-focused interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Bi-directional relations between behavioral problems and executive function: Assessing the longitudinal development of self-regulation.

During childhood, the ability to limit problem behaviors (i.e., externalizing) and the capacity for cognitive regulation (i.e., executive function) are often understood to develop in tandem, and together constitute two major components of self-regulation research. The current study examines bi-directional relations between behavioral problems and executive function over the course of childhood and adolescence. Relying on a diverse sample of children growing up in low-income neighborhoods, we applied a random intercept cross-lagged panel model to longitudinally test associations between behavioral problems and executive function from age 4 through age 16. With this approach, which disaggregated between- and within-child variation, we did not observe significant cross-lagged paths, suggesting that within-child development in one domain did not strongly relate to development in the other. We also observed a moderate correlation between the stable between-child components of behavioral problems and executive function over time in our preferred model, suggesting that these two domains may be relatively distinct when modeled from early childhood through adolescence.

Preschool executive function and adult outcomes: A developmental cascade model.

The present study examined longitudinal associations between preschoolers' executive function (EF) and adult educational attainment, impulse control, and general health directly and through its cascading effects on childhood and adolescent EF using a large, national, and prospective longitudinal sample of participants. Data were drawn from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (NICHD SECCYD) and included a diverse sample (52% male at birth; 76% White; 13% Black; 6% Hispanic; and 5% other; 14.23 mean years of maternal education) of 1,364 participants born in 1991 and followed through age 26. Four main findings emerged. First, we observed significant bivariate relations between EF measured at 54 months and adult educational attainment (r = .36, p < .01), and impulse control (r = .11, p = .01). Second, early EF measured during preschool and childhood explained variance in adult educational attainment and impulse control above and beyond adolescent EF. Third, childhood EF mediated the association between preschool EF and adult educational attainment and impulse control but did not operate through adolescent EF. Finally, neither preschool EF nor EF measured at other developmental stages predicted health during adulthood. Together, these findings shed light on the direct and cascading influences of EF across development on important domains of adult functioning. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Examining the Effects of Changes in Classroom Quality on Within-Child Changes in Achievement and Behavioral Outcomes.

This study examines whether changes in classroom quality predict within-child changes in achievement and behavioral problems in elementary school (ages spanning approximately 6-11 years old). Drawing on data from a longitudinal study of children in predominantly low-income, nonurban communities (n = 1,078), we relied on child fixed effects modeling, which controlled for stable factors that could bias the effects of classroom quality. In general, we found that changes in classroom quality had small and statistically nonsignificant effects on achievement and behavior. However, we found that moving into a high-quality classroom, particularly those rated as high in Classroom Organization, had positive effects on achievement and behavior for children with significant exposure to poverty in early life.

Do High-Quality Kindergarten and First-Grade Classrooms Mitigate Preschool Fadeout?

Prior research shows that short-term effects from preschool may disappear, but little research has considered which environmental conditions might sustain academic advantages from preschool into elementary school. Using secondary data from two preschool experiments, we investigate whether features of elementary schools, particularly advanced content and high-quality instruction in kindergarten and first grade, as well as professional supports to coordinate curricular instruction, reduce fadeout. Across both studies, our measures of instruction did not moderate fadeout. However, results indicated that targeted teacher professional supports substantially mitigated fadeout between kindergarten and first grade but that this was not mediated through classroom quality. Future research should investigate the specific mechanisms through which aligned preschool-elementary school curricular approaches can sustain the benefits of preschool programs for low-income children.

The Chicago School Readiness Project: Examining the long-term impacts of an early childhood intervention.

The current paper reports long-term treatment impact estimates for a randomized evaluation of an early childhood intervention designed to promote children's developmental outcomes and improve the quality of Head Start centers serving high-violence and high-crime areas in inner-city Chicago. Initial evaluations of end-of-preschool data reported that the program led to reductions in child behavioral problems and gains in measures of executive function and academic achievement. For this report, we analyzed adolescent follow-up data taken 10 to 11 years after program completion. We found evidence that the program had positive long-term effects on students' executive function and grades, though effects were somewhat imprecise and dependent on the inclusion of baseline covariates. Results also indicated that treated children had heightened sensitivity to emotional stimuli, and we found no evidence of long-run effects on measures of behavioral problems. These findings raise the possibility that developing programs that improve on the Head Start model could carry long-run benefits for affected children.

Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links Between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes.

We replicated and extended Shoda, Mischel, and Peake's (1990) famous marshmallow study, which showed strong bivariate correlations between a child's ability to delay gratification just before entering school and both adolescent achievement and socioemotional behaviors. Concentrating on children whose mothers had not completed college, we found that an additional minute waited at age 4 predicted a gain of approximately one tenth of a standard deviation in achievement at age 15. But this bivariate correlation was only half the size of those reported in the original studies and was reduced by two thirds in the presence of controls for family background, early cognitive ability, and the home environment. Most of the variation in adolescent achievement came from being able to wait at least 20 s. Associations between delay time and measures of behavioral outcomes at age 15 were much smaller and rarely statistically significant.

Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill development.

Developmental theories often posit that changes in children's early psychological characteristics will affect much later psychological, social, and economic outcomes. However, tests of these theories frequently yield results that are consistent with plausible alternative theories that posit a much smaller causal role for earlier levels of these psychological characteristics. Our article explores this issue with empirical tests of skill-building theories, which predict that early boosts to simpler skills (e.g., numeracy or literacy) or behaviors (e.g., antisocial behavior or executive functions) support the long-term development of more sophisticated skills or behaviors. Substantial longitudinal associations between academic or socioemotional skills measured early and then later in childhood or adolescence are often taken as support of these skill-building processes. Using the example of skill-building in mathematics, we argue that longitudinal correlations, even if adjusted for an extensive set of baseline covariates, constitute an insufficiently risky test of skill-building theories. We first show that experimental manipulation of early math skills generates much smaller effects on later math achievement than the nonexperimental literature has suggested. We then conduct falsification tests that show puzzlingly high cross-domain associations between early math and later literacy achievement. Finally, we show that a skill-building model positing a combination of unmeasured stable factors and skill-building processes can reproduce the pattern of experimental impacts on children's mathematics achievement. Implications for developmental theories, methods, and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record