Epidemiology of confirmed measles virus cases, surveillance, incidence, and associated factors in Eritrea: 18-year retrospective analysis.

Background: Despite the outstanding measles vaccine coverage (MVC) in Eritrea, sporadic outbreaks are not uncommon. Therefore, understanding the incidence of laboratory-confirmed measles virus cases, related factors, and spatial inequalities in testing and surveillance remains crucial. In this analysis, we evaluated the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of measles in Eritrea. An evaluation of the factors associated with measles vaccination and IgM positive (+) febrile rash was also undertaken. Methods: A retrospective (period: 2002-2020) study was carried out by abstracting data from the integrated disease surveillance and response database (IDSR). Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. Spatial variability and distribution of confirmed cases was evaluated using ArcGIS Pro version 3.0.1. Results: In total, 9,111 suspected cases, 2,767 [1,431 (51.7%) females] were serologically tested. The median (IQR) age, minimum-maximum age were 7 years (IQR: 4-14 years) and 1 month-97 years, respectively. Among the 608(21.9%) laboratory-confirmed cases, 534 (87.8%) were unvaccinated and 53 (9.92%) were < 1 year old. The crude incidence rate for MV was 14/100,000 persons. The age-specific positivity rate per 100,000 suspected cases tested was 21.5 with individuals >30 years presenting with the highest rates (69.9/100,000). Higher odds (OR) of MV test positivity was associated with age at onset - higher in the following age-bands [10-14 years: OR = 1.6 (95%CI, 1.1-2.2, value of p = 0.005); 15-29 years: OR = 7.0 (95%CI, 5.3-9.2, value of p = 0.005); and > =30 years: OR = 16.7 (95%CI, 11.7-24) p < 0.001]. Other associations included: Address - higher in Anseba (OR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.7-3.1, value of p<0.001); Debub (OR = 2.7, 95%CI: 1.9-3.9, value of p < 0.001); Gash-Barka (OR = 15.4, 95%CI: 10.9-21.7, value of p < 0.001); Northern Red Sea (OR = 11.8, 95%CI: 8.5-16.2, value of p < 0.001); and Southern Red Sea (OR = 14.4, 95%CI: 8.2-25.2, value of p < 0.001). Further, test positivity was higher in health centers (OR = 2.5, 95%CI: 1.9-3.4, value of p < 0.001) and hospitals (OR = 6.8, 95%CI: 5.1-9.1, value of p < 0.001). Additional factors included vaccination status - higher in the unvaccinated (OR = 14.7, 95%CI: 11.4-19.1, value of p < 0.001); and year of onset of rash - (higher >2015: OR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1-1.7, value of p<0.001). Uptake of measles vaccine associated with a similar complement of factors. Conclusion: In large part, efforts to eliminate measles in Eritrea are hindered by disparities in vaccine coverage, under-surveillance, and low vaccination rates in neighboring countries. Enhanced surveillance and regional micro planning targeting hard-to-reach areas can be an effective strategy to improve measles elimination efforts in Eritrea.

A community based cross sectional study on the prevalence of dyslipidemias and 10 years cardiovascular risk scores in adults in Asmara, Eritrea.

Despite the contribution of dyslipidemia to the high and rising burden of arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Sub-Saharan Africa; the condition is under-diagnosed, under-treated, and under-described. The objective of this study was to explore the prevalence of dyslipidemias, estimate a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and associated factors in adults (≥ 35 to ≤ 85 years) living in Asmara, Eritrea. This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted among individuals without overt CVDs in Asmara, Eritrea, from October 2020 to November 2020. After stratified multistage sampling, a total of 386 (144 (37%) males and 242 (63%) females, mean age ± SD, 52.17 ± 13.29 years) respondents were randomly selected. The WHO NCD STEPS instrument version 3.1 questionnaire was used to collect data. Information on socio-demographic variables was collected via interviews by trained data collectors. Measurements/or analyses including anthropometric, lipid panel, fasting plasma glucose, and blood pressure were also undertaken. Finally, data was analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 26.0 for Windows (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). All p-values were 2-sided and the level of significance was set at p < 0.05 for all analyses. The frequency of dyslipidemia in this population was disproportionately high (87.4%) with the worst affected subgroup in the 51-60 age band. Further, 98% of the study participants were not aware of their diagnosis. In terms of individual lipid markers, the proportions were as follows: low HDL-C (55.2%); high TC (49.7%); high LDL (44.8%); high TG (38.1%). The mean ± SD, for HDL-C, TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and TG were 45.28 ± 9.60; 205.24 ± 45.77; 130.77 ± 36.15; 160.22 ± 42.09 and 144.5 ± 61.26 mg/dL, respectively. Regarding NCEP ATP III risk criteria, 17.6%, 19.4%, 16.3%, 19.7%, and 54.7% were in high or very high-risk categories for TC, Non-HDL-C, TG, LDL-C, and HDL-C, respectively. Among all respondents, 59.6% had mixed dyslipidemias with TC + TG + LDL-C dominating. In addition, 27.3%, 28.04%, 23.0%, and 8.6% had abnormalities in 1, 2, 3 and 4 lipid abnormalities, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression modeling suggested that dyslipidemia was lower in subjects who were employed (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24-0.97, p = 0.015); self-employed (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17-1.00, p = 0.018); and married (aOR 2.35, 95% CI 1.19-4.66, p = 0.009). A higher likelihood of dyslipidemia was also associated with increasing DBP (aOR 1.04 mmHg (1.00-1.09, p = 0.001) and increasing FPG (aOR 1.02 per 1 mg/dL, 95% CI 1.00-1.05, p = 0.001). Separately, Framingham CVD Risk score estimates suggested that 12.7% and 2.8% were at 10 years CVD high risk or very high-risk strata. High frequency of poor lipid health may be a prominent contributor to the high burden of atherosclerotic CVDs-related mortality and morbidity in Asmara, Eritrea. Consequently, efforts directed at early detection, and evidence-based interventions are warranted. The low awareness rate also points at education within the population as a possible intervention pathway.