Vitamin D supplementation and falls in residential aged care: A longitudinal multisite cohort study.

Background: Vitamin D is vital for musculoskeletal health, and supplementation may lower risk of falls. Past research in residential aged care (RAC) settings on the effects of vitamin D on falls have reported inconclusive findings, partly due to study design limitations. We utilised a longitudinal study design to assess the association between the use of vitamin D and falls over 36 months in RAC. Method: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using routinely collected electronic data spanning 9 years from 27 RAC facilities in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. The study included 4520 permanent residents aged 65 years or older who were admitted for the first time from 1 July 2014 and stayed for a minimum of one month. We identified daily vitamin D usage over 36 months, and measured adherence using the Proportion of Days Covered (PDC) metric. A PDC value of ≥80 % signifies optimal adherence. Primary outcomes were the number of all falls and injurious falls. A rolling time-varying predictor-outcome approach and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were applied to determine the longitudinal link between vitamin D supplement use and subsequent risk of falls. Results: Over two-thirds of residents (67.8 %; n = 3063) received vitamin D supplements during their stay, with a median PDC of 74.8 % among users, and 44.6 % (n = 1365) achieving optimal adherence. Increasing age, osteoporosis or fracture history, and dementia were associated with a greater likelihood of achieving optimal adherence. Crude fall incident rates were 8.05 and 2.92 incidents per 1000 resident days for all falls and injurious falls respectively. After accounting for relevant demographic and clinical factors, no significant links were observed between vitamin D supplement usage and fall outcomes: all falls (Incident Rate Ratio [IRR] 1.01; 95 % CI 1.00-1.02; P = 0.237) and injurious falls (IRR 1.01; 95 % CI 1.00-1.02; P = 0.091). Conclusion: Vitamin D supplementation was not associated with a reduced risk of falls, suggesting it is not an effective intervention for preventing falls in RAC. While clinicians should ensure adequate vitamin D intake for residents' nutritional and bone health, it should not be a standalone falls prevention intervention in RAC populations.

Analysis of Longitudinal Patterns and Predictors of Medicine Use in Residential Aged Care Using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling: The "MEDTRAC-Cardiovascular" Longitudinal Cohort Study.

AIM: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally. Ensuring ongoing use of medicines-medication persistence-is crucial, yet no prior studies have examined this in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). We aimed to identify long-term trajectories of persistence with cardiovascular medicines and determine predictors of persistence trajectories. METHOD: A longitudinal cohort study of 2837 newly admitted permanent residents from 30 RACFs in New South Wales, Australia. We monitored weekly exposure to six cardiovascular medicine classes-lipid modifiers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs), beta-blockers, diuretics, calcium channel blockers (CCB), and cardiac therapy-over 3 years. Group-based trajectory modeling was employed to determine persistence trajectories for each class. RESULTS: At baseline, 76.6% (n = 2172) received at least one cardiovascular medicine with 41.2% receiving lipid modifiers, 31.4% ACEI/ARBs, 30.2% beta-blockers, 24.4% diuretics, 18.7% CCBs, and 14.8% cardiac therapy. The model identified two persistence trajectories for CCBs and three trajectories for all other classes. Sustained high persistence rates ranged from 68.4% (ACEI/ARBs) to 79.8% (beta-blockers) while early decline in persistence and subsequent discontinuation rates ranged from 7.6% (cardiac therapy) to 25.3% (CCBs). Logistic regressions identified 11 predictors of a declining persistence across the six medicine classes. CONCLUSION: Our study revealed varied patterns of cardiovascular medicine use in RACFs, with 2-3 distinctive medicine use trajectories across different classes, each exhibiting a unique clinical profile, and up to a quarter of residents discontinuing a medicine class. Future studies should explore the underlying reasons and appropriateness of nonpersistence to aid in identifying areas for improvement.

How can interventions more directly address drivers of unprofessional behaviour between healthcare staff?

Unprofessional behaviours (UBs) between healthcare staff are widespread and have negative impacts on patient safety, staff well-being and organisational efficiency. However, knowledge of how to address UBs is lacking. Our recent realist review analysed 148 sources including 42 reports of interventions drawing on different behaviour change strategies and found that interventions insufficiently explain their rationale for using particular strategies. We also explored the drivers of UBs and how these may interact. In our analysis, we elucidated both common mechanisms underlying both how drivers increase UB and how strategies address UB, enabling the mapping of strategies against drivers they address. For example, social norm-setting strategies work by fostering a more professional social norm, which can help tackle the driver 'reduced social cohesion'. Our novel programme theory, presented here, provides an increased understanding of what strategies might be effective to adddress specific drivers of UB. This can inform logic model design for those seeking to develop interventions addressing UB in healthcare settings.

Longitudinal cohort study of discrepancies between prescribed and administered polypharmacy rates: implications for National Aged Care Quality Indicator Programs.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy is frequently used as a quality indicator for older adults in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs) and is measured using a range of definitions. The impact of data source choice on polypharmacy rates and the implications for monitoring and benchmarking remain unclear. We aimed to determine polypharmacy rates (≥9 concurrent medicines) by using prescribed and administered data under various scenarios, leveraging electronic data from 30 RACFs. METHOD: A longitudinal cohort study of 5662 residents in New South Wales, Australia. Both prescribed and administered polypharmacy rates were calculated biweekly from January 2019 to September 2022, providing 156 assessment times. 12 different polypharmacy rates were computed separately using prescribing and administration data and incorporating different combinations of items: medicines and non-medicinal products, any medicines and regular medicines across four scenarios: no, 1-week, 2-week and 4-week look-back periods. Generalised estimating equation models were employed to identify predictors of discrepancies between prescribed and administered polypharmacy. RESULTS: Polypharmacy rates among residents ranged from 33.9% using data on administered regular medicines with no look-back period to 63.5% using prescribed medicines and non-medicinal products with a 4-week look-back period. At each assessment time, the differences between prescribed and administered polypharmacy rates were consistently more than 10.0%, 4.5%, 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively, with no, 1-week, 2-week and 4-week look-back periods. Diabetic residents faced over two times the likelihood of polypharmacy discrepancies compared with counterparts, while dementia residents consistently showed reduced likelihood across all analyses. CONCLUSION: We found notable discrepancies between polypharmacy rates for prescribed and administered medicines. We recommend a review of the guidance for calculating and interpreting polypharmacy for national quality indicator programmes to ensure consistent measurement and meaningful reporting.

Diabetes in residential aged care: Pharmacological management and concordance with clinical guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: Existing studies have highlighted suboptimal diabetes management in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). However, understanding of diabetes management in Australian metropolitan RACFs has been limited. This retrospective cohort study aimed to explore the pharmacological management of diabetes in 25 RACFs in Sydney Australia and assess concordance with clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). METHODS: Data from 231 permanent RACF residents aged ≥65 years and over with type 2 diabetes mellitus over the period from 1 July 2016 to 31 December 2019 were used. Concordance was measured by assessing the medications and medical history data for each individual resident for concordance with evidence-based CPGs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of resident characteristics on concordance with CPGs. RESULTS: Of the 231 residents with diabetes, 87 (38%) were not taking any antidiabetic medication. Pharmacological management inconsistent with CPG recommendations was observed for 73 (32%) residents, with the most common reason for non-concordance being the use of medications with significant adverse effects in older adults (47, 2%). Residents with hypertension or other heart diseases in addition to their diabetes had greater odds of their diabetes management being non-concordant with CPGs (OR = 2.84 95% CI = 1.54, 5.3 and OR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.07, 6.41, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacological diabetes management in metropolitan Australian RACFs is suboptimal, with a high prevalence of inconsistency with CPGs (32%) observed. Additionally, having hypertension or heart diseases significantly increased the possibility of non-concordance among diabetic RACF residents. Further investigation into the underlying relationships with comorbidities is required to develop better strategies.

Consumer perspectives on antibiotic use in residential aged care: a mixed-methods systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Aged care staff and doctors frequently highlight consumers' role in antibiotic treatment decisions. However, few studies include consumers. This study aimed to investigate consumer perspectives on antibiotic use in residential aged care. METHODS: A search across six online databases yielded 3373 studies, with five meeting inclusion criteria. Participant quotes, themes, statistical analyses, and authors' interpretive summaries in the included studies were inductively coded and refined to generate themes. RESULTS: Three themes emerged: perception of benefits and risks of antibiotics; perceived role in antibiotic treatment decision-making and information-communication needs. Consumers held positive attitudes towards antibiotics, did not associate antibiotics with the exclusive treatment of bacterial infections, and had limited awareness of potential risks, such as antibiotic resistance. Studies showed diverse perceptions regarding residents' and their families' involvement in antibiotic treatment decision-making with some residents actively seeking antibiotics and others trusting doctors to decide. Studies also described consumer need for effective provider-consumer communication and information sharing which was affected by contextual barriers such as motivation, preferences, available information resources, and provider attitudes. CONCLUSION: Limited literature is available on consumer perspectives on antibiotic use in aged care. The review highlights that consumer needs are more complex than simply wanting an antibiotic. Antimicrobial stewardship programs should target consumer awareness, beliefs and provider-consumer communication to enhance antibiotic use in aged care.

A Longitudinal Study of the Use and Effects of Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs in Residential Aged Care.

OBJECTIVES: Fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRIDs)-psychotropics and cardiovascular disease (CVD) drugs-may elevate the risk of falling, with strong evidence observed in psychotropic FRIDs, whereas findings from cardiovascular disease (CVD) FRIDs remain inconclusive. Existing studies on FRIDs and falls are often hampered by methodologic limitations. Leveraging longitudinal observational data, we aimed to determine the long-term patterns of FRID use and their association with falls in residential aged care (RAC) homes. DESIGN: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4207 permanent residents newly admitted to 27 RAC homes in Sydney, Australia. METHOD: The outcomes were incidence of all and injurious falls. We measured exposure to each FRID over 60 months using the Proportion of Days Covered (PDC) metric. We used group-based multitrajectory modeling to determine concurrent usage patterns of psychotropics and CVD FRIDs and applied negative binomial regression to assess their associations with the outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 83.6% (n = 3516) and 77.3% (n = 3254) residents used psychotropic and CVD FRIDs, respectively. The PDC values ranged from 67.3% (opioids) to 86.9% (antidepressants) for specific psychotropics and 79.0% (α-adrenoceptor antagonists) to 89.6% (ß blockers) for CVD FRIDs. We identified 4 groups: group 1, low psychotropics-low CVDs use (16.7%, n = 701); group 2, low psychotropics-high CVDs (25.0%, n = 1054); group 3, high psychotropics-high CVDs (41.0%, n = 1723); and group 4, high psychotropics-low CVDs (17.3%, n = 729). Group 4 had a significantly higher rate of falls than the other groups for both outcomes, including relative to group 3, in which exposure to both FRID classes was high. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Our findings reveal concerningly high FRID use in RAC homes and highlight a critical difference in the impact of the 2 major FRID classes on falls. Psychotropics were strongly associated with falls, whereas the studied CVD FRIDs did not elevate risk of falling.

Factors affecting 12-month unplanned readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: the effect of mental disorders in an Australian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience frequent hospitalization and readmissions, which is burdensome on the health system. This study aims to investigate factors associated with unplanned readmissions and mortality following a COPD-related hospitalization over a 12-month period in Australia, focusing on mental disorders and accounting for the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using linked hospitalization and mortality records identified individuals aged ≥40 years who had at least one hospital admission with a principal diagnosis of COPD between 2014 and 2020 in New South Wales, Australia. A semi-competing risk analysis was conducted to examine factors associated with unplanned readmission and mortality. RESULTS: Adults with a mental disorder diagnosis, specifically anxiety, had a higher risk of 12-month unplanned readmission. Individuals with anxiety and dementia also had a higher risk of mortality pre- and post-unplanned readmission. Individuals who were admitted during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic period had lower risk of unplanned readmission, but higher risk of mortality without unplanned readmission. CONCLUSION: Interventions aimed at reducing admissions should consider adults living with mental disorders such as anxiety or dementia to improve healthcare delivery and health outcomes for individuals living with COPD.

Evaluation of a culture change program to reduce unprofessional behaviours by hospital co-workers in Australian hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Unprofessional behaviours between healthcare workers are highly prevalent. Evaluations of large-scale culture change programs are rare resulting in limited evidence of intervention effectiveness. We conducted a multi-method evaluation of a professional accountability and culture change program "Ethos" implemented across eight Australian hospitals. The Ethos program incorporates training for staff in speaking-up; an online system for reporting co-worker behaviours; and a tiered accountability pathway, including peer-messengers who deliver feedback to staff for 'reflection' or 'recognition'. Here we report the final evaluation component which aimed to measure changes in the prevalence of unprofessional behaviours before and after Ethos. METHODS: A survey of staff (clinical and non-clinical) experiences of 26 unprofessional behaviours across five hospitals at baseline before (2018) and 2.5-3 years after (2021/2022) Ethos implementation. Five of the 26 behaviours were classified as 'extreme' (e.g., assault) and 21 as incivility/bullying (e.g., being spoken to rudely). Our analysis assessed changes in four dimensions: work-related bullying; person-related bullying; physical bullying and sexual harassment. Change in experience of incivility/bullying was compared using multivariable ordinal logistic regression. Change in extreme behaviours was assessed using multivariable binary logistic regression. All models were adjusted for respondent characteristics. RESULTS: In total, 3975 surveys were completed. Staff reporting frequent incivility/bullying significantly declined from 41.7% (n = 1064; 95% CI 39.7,43.9) at baseline to 35.5% (n = 505; 95% CI 32.8,38.3; χ2(1) = 14.3; P < 0.001) post-Ethos. The odds of experiencing incivility/bullying declined by 24% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.76; 95% CI 0.66,0.87; P < 0.001) and odds of experiencing extreme behaviours by 32% (aOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.54,0.85; P < 0.001) following Ethos. All four dimensions showed a reduction of 32-41% in prevalence post-Ethos. Non-clinical staff reported the greatest decrease in their experience of unprofessional behaviour (aOR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29, 0.61). Staff attitudes and reported skills to speak-up were significantly more positive at follow-up. Awareness of the program was high (82.1%; 95% CI 80.0, 84.0%); 33% of respondents had sent or received an Ethos message. CONCLUSION: The Ethos program was associated with significant reductions in the prevalence of reported unprofessional behaviours and improved capacity of hospital staff to speak-up. These results add to evidence that staff will actively engage with a system that supports informal feedback to co-workers about their behaviours and is facilitated by trained peer messengers.

Child Age and Risk of Medication Error: A Multisite Children's Hospital Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine associations between patient age and medication errors among pediatric inpatients. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data sets generated from 2 tertiary pediatric hospitals: (1) prescribing errors identified from chart reviews for patients on 9 general wards at hospital A during April 22 to July 10, 2016, June 20 to September 20, 2017, and June 20 to September 30, 2020; prescribing errors from 5 wards at hospital B in the same periods and (2) medication administration errors assessed by direct prospective observation of 5137 administrations on 9 wards at hospital A. Multilevel models examined the association between patient age and medication errors. Age was modeled using restricted cubic splines to allow for nonlinearity. RESULTS: Prescribing errors increased nonlinearly with patient age (P = .01), showing little association from ages 0 to 3 years and then increasing with age until around 10 years and remaining constant through the teenage years. Administration errors increased with patient age, with no association from 0 to around 8 years and then a steady rise with increasing age (P = .03). The association differed by route: linear for oral, no association for intravenous infusions, and U-shaped for intravenous injections. CONCLUSIONS: Older age is an unrecognized risk factor for medication error on general wards in pediatric hospitals. Contributors to risk may be the clinical profiles of these older children or the general level of attention paid to medication practices for this group. Further investigation may allow the design of more targeted interventions to reduce errors.

Co-worker unprofessional behaviour and patient safety risks: an analysis of co-worker reports across eight Australian hospitals.

A key component of professional accountability programmes is online reporting tools that allow hospital staff to report co-worker unprofessional behaviour. Few studies have analysed data from these systems to further understand the nature or impact of unprofessional behaviour amongst staff. Ethos is a whole-of-hospital professional accountability programme that includes an online messaging system. Ethos has now been implemented across multiple Australian hospitals. This study examined reported unprofessional behaviour that staff indicated created a risk to patient safety. This study included 1310 Ethos submissions reporting co-worker unprofessional behaviour between 2017 and 2020 across eight Australian hospitals. Submissions that indicated the behaviour increased the risk to patient safety were identified. Descriptive summary statistics were presented for reporters and subjects of submissions about unprofessional behaviour. Logistic regression was applied to examine the association between each unprofessional behaviour (of the six most frequently reported in the Ethos submissions) and patient safety risk reported in the submissions. The descriptions in the reports were reviewed and the patient safety risks were coded using a framework aligned with the World Health Organization's International Classification for Patient Safety. Of 1310 submissions about unprofessional behaviour, 395 (30.2%) indicated that there was a risk to patient safety. Nurses made the highest number of submissions that included a patient safety risk [3.47 submissions per 100 nursing staff, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.09-3.9] compared to other professional groups. Medical professionals had the highest rate as subjects of submissions for unprofessional behaviour with a patient safety risk (5.19 submissions per 100 medical staff, 95% CI: 4.44-6.05). 'Opinions being ignored' (odds ratio: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.23-2.22; P < .001) and 'someone withholding information which affects work performance' were behaviours strongly associated with patient safety risk in the submissions (odds ratio: 2.50; 95% CI: 1.73-3.62; P < .001) compared to submissions without a patient safety risk. The two main types of risks to patient safety described were related to clinical process/procedure and clinical administration. Commonly reported events included staff not following policy or protocol; doctors refusing to review a patient; and interruptions and inadequate information during handover. Our findings indicate that unprofessional behaviour was associated with risks to patient safety. Co-worker reports about unprofessional behaviour have significant value as they can be used by organizations to better understand how unprofessional behaviour can disrupt work practices and lead to risks to patient safety.

Paediatric medication incident reporting: a multicentre comparison study of medication errors identified at audit, detected by staff and reported to an incident system.

OBJECTIVES: To compare medication errors identified at audit and via direct observation with medication errors reported to an incident reporting system at paediatric hospitals and to investigate differences in types and severity of errors detected and reported by staff. METHODS: This is a comparison study at two tertiary referral paediatric hospitals between 2016 and 2020 in Australia. Prescribing errors were identified from a medication chart audit of 7785 patient records. Medication administration errors were identified from a prospective direct observational study of 5137 medication administration doses to 1530 patients. Medication errors reported to the hospitals' incident reporting system were identified and matched with errors identified at audit and observation. RESULTS: Of 11 302 clinical prescribing errors identified at audit, 3.2 per 1000 errors (95% CI 2.3 to 4.4, n=36) had an incident report. Of 2224 potentially serious prescribing errors from audit, 26.1% (95% CI 24.3 to 27.9, n=580) were detected by staff and 11.2 per 1000 errors (95% CI 7.6 to 16.5, n=25) were reported to the incident system. Although the prescribing error detection rates varied between the two hospitals, there was no difference in incident reporting rates regardless of error severity. Of 40 errors associated with actual patient harm, only 7 (17.5%; 95% CI 8.7% to 31.9%) were detected by staff and 4 (10.0%; 95% CI 4.0% to 23.1%) had an incident report. None of the 2883 clinical medication administration errors observed, including 903 potentially serious errors and 144 errors associated with actual patient harm, had incident reports. CONCLUSION: Incident reporting data do not provide an accurate reflection of medication errors and related harm to children in hospitals. Failure to detect medication errors is likely to be a significant contributor to low error reporting rates. In an era of electronic health records, new automated approaches to monitor medication safety should be pursued to provide real-time monitoring.

The relationship between participation in leisure activities and incidence of falls in residential aged care.

BACKGROUND: Active engagement in leisure activities has positive effects on individuals' health outcomes and social functioning; however, there is limited understanding of the link between participation in leisure activities, particularly non-exercise activities, and falls in older adults. This study aimed to determine the relationship between participation in leisure activities and the incidence of falls, and the variation of this relationship by dementia status in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilising routinely collected data (January 2021-August 2022) from 25 RACFs in Sydney, Australia, was conducted. The cohort included 3,024 older permanent residents (1,493 with dementia and 1,531 without) aged ≥65 and with a stay of ≥1 week. The level of participation in leisure activities was measured using the number of leisure activities per 1,000 resident days and divided into quartiles. Outcome measures were the incidence rate of all falls and injurious falls (i.e., number of falls per 1,000 resident days). We used multilevel negative binary regression to examine the relationship between leisure participation and fall incidence. RESULTS: For the whole sample, leisure participation was significantly inversely associated with the incidence rate of all falls and injurious falls. For example, residents in the high leisure participation group were 26% less likely to experience a fall compared to those in the low leisure participation group after controlling for confounders (incidence rate ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval = 0.60, 0.91). Such inverse relationship was observed in both exercise and non-exercise activities and was stronger among residents without dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Leisure participation is associated with a lower rate of falls, a key quality indicator by which RACFs are benchmarked and funded in Australia and many other countries. More recognition and attention are needed for the currently underfunded leisure activities in RACFs in future funding arrangement.

Implementation of large, multi-site hospital interventions: a realist evaluation of strategies for developing capability.

BACKGROUND: This study presents guidelines for implementation distilled from the findings of a realist evaluation. The setting was local health districts in New South Wales, Australia that implemented three clinical improvement initiatives as part of a state-wide program. We focussed on implementation strategies designed to develop health professionals' capability to deliver value-based care initiatives for multisite programs. Capability, which increases implementers' ability to cope with unexpected scenarios is key to managing change. METHODS: We used a mixed methods realist evaluation which tested and refined program theories elucidating the complex dynamic between context (C), mechanism (M) and outcome (O) to determine what works, for whom, under what circumstances. Data was drawn from program documents, a realist synthesis, informal discussions with implementation designers, and interviews with 10 key informants (out of 37 identified) from seven sites. Data analysis employed a retroductive approach to interrogate the causal factors identified as contributors to outcomes. RESULTS: CMO statements were refined for four initial program theories: Making it Relevant- where participation in activities was increased when targeted to the needs of the staff; Investment in Quality Improvement- where engagement in capability development was enhanced when it was valued by all levels of the organisation; Turnover and Capability Loss- where the effects of staff turnover were mitigated; and Community-Wide Priority- where there was a strategy of spanning sites. From these data five guiding principles for implementers were distilled: (1) Involve all levels of the health system to effectively implement large-scale capability development, (2) Design capability development activities in a way that supports a learning culture, (3) Plan capability development activities with staff turnover in mind, (4) Increased capability should be distributed across teams to avoid bottlenecks in workflows and the risk of losing key staff, (5) Foster cross-site collaboration to focus effort, reduce variation in practice and promote greater cohesion in patient care. CONCLUSIONS: A key implementation strategy for interventions to standardise high quality practice is development of clinical capability. We illustrate how leadership support, attention to staff turnover patterns, and making activities relevant to current issues, can lead to an emergent learning culture.

Development and internal validation of a dynamic fall risk prediction and monitoring tool in aged care using routinely collected electronic health data: a landmarking approach.

OBJECTIVES: Falls pose a significant challenge in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Existing falls prediction tools perform poorly and fail to capture evolving risk factors. We aimed to develop and internally validate dynamic fall risk prediction models and create point-based scoring systems for residents with and without dementia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study using electronic data from 27 RACFs in Sydney, Australia. The study included 5492 permanent residents, with a 70%-30% split for training and validation. The outcome measure was the incidence of falls. We tracked residents for 60 months, using monthly landmarks with 1-month prediction windows. We employed landmarking dynamic prediction for model development, a time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) for model evaluations, and a regression coefficient approach to create point-based scoring systems. RESULTS: The model identified 15 independent predictors of falls in dementia and 12 in nondementia cohorts. Falls history was the key predictor of subsequent falls in both dementia (HR 4.75, 95% CI, 4.45-5.06) and nondementia cohorts (HR 4.20, 95% CI, 3.87-4.57). The AUROCC across landmarks ranged from 0.67 to 0.87 for dementia and from 0.66 to 0.86 for nondementia cohorts but generally remained between 0.75 and 0.85 in both cohorts. The total point risk score ranged from -2 to 57 for dementia and 0 to 52 for nondementia cohorts. DISCUSSION: Our novel risk prediction models and scoring systems provide timely person-centered information for continuous monitoring of fall risk in RACFs. CONCLUSION: Embedding these tools within electronic health records could facilitate the implementation of targeted proactive interventions to prevent falls.

Risk Factors Associated with Medication Administration Errors in Children: A Prospective Direct Observational Study of Paediatric Inpatients.

INTRODUCTION: Limited evidence exists regarding medication administration errors (MAEs) on general paediatric wards or associated risk factors exists. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify nurse, medication, and work-environment factors associated with MAEs among paediatric inpatients. METHODS: This was a prospective, direct observational study of 298 nurses in a paediatric referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. Trained observers recorded details of 5137 doses prepared and administered to 1530 children between 07:00 h and 22:00 h on weekdays and weekends. Observation data were compared with medication charts to identify errors. Clinical errors, potential severity and actual harm were assessed. Nurse characteristics (e.g. age, sex, experience), medication type (route, high-risk medications, use of solvent/diluent), and work variables (e.g. time of administration, weekday/weekend, use of an electronic medication management system [eMM], presence of a parent/carer) were collected. Multivariable models assessed MAE risk factors for any error, errors by route, potentially serious errors, and errors involving high-risk medication or causing actual harm. RESULTS: Errors occurred in 37.0% (n = 1899; 95% confidence interval [CI] 35.7-38.3) of administrations, 25.8% (n = 489; 95% CI 23.8-27.9) of which were rated as potentially serious. Intravenous infusions and injections had high error rates (64.7% [n = 514], 95% CI 61.3-68.0; and 77.4% [n = 188], 95% CI 71.7-82.2, respectively). For intravenous injections, 59.7% (95% CI 53.4-65.6) had potentially serious errors. No nurse characteristics were associated with MAEs. Intravenous route, early morning and weekend administrations, patient age ≥ 11 years, oral medications requiring solvents/diluents and eMM use were all significant risk factors. MAEs causing actual harm were 45% lower using an eMM compared with paper charts. CONCLUSION: Medication error prevention strategies should target intravenous administrations and not neglect older children in hospital. Attention to nurses' work environments, including improved design and integration of medication technologies, is warranted.

Drug-Drug Interactions and Actual Harm to Hospitalized Patients: A Multicentre Study Examining the Prevalence Pre- and Post-Electronic Medication System Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) have potential to cause patient harm, including lowering therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (i) determine the prevalence of potential DDIs (pDDIs); clinically relevant DDIs (cDDIs), that is, DDIs that could lead to patient harm, taking into account a patient's individual clinical profile, drug effects and severity of potential harmful outcome; and subsequent actual harm among hospitalized patients and (ii) examine the impact of transitioning from paper-based medication charts to electronic medication management (eMM) on DDIs and patient harms. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the control arm of a controlled pre-post study. Patients were randomly selected from three Australian hospitals. Retrospective chart review was conducted before and after the implementation of an eMM system, without accompanying clinical decision support alerts for DDIs. Harm was assessed by an expert panel. RESULTS: Of 1186 patient admissions, 70.1% (n = 831) experienced a pDDI, 42.6% (n = 505) a cDDI and 0.9% (n = 11) an actual harm in hospital. Of 15,860 pDDIs identified, 27.0% (n = 4285) were classified as cDDIs. The median number of pDDIs and cDDIs per 10 drugs were 6 [interquartile range (IQR) 2-13] and 0 (IQR 0-2), respectively. In cases where a cDDI was identified, both drugs were 44% less likely to be co-administered following eMM (adjusted odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.73). CONCLUSION: Although most patients experienced a pDDI during their hospital stay, less than one-third of pDDIs were clinically relevant. The low prevalence of harm identified raises questions about the value of incorporating DDI decision support into systems given the potential negative impacts of DDI alerts.

Developing a process to measure actual harm from medication errors in paediatric inpatients: From design to implementation.

AIMS: The potential harm associated with medication errors is widely reported, but data on actual harm are limited. When actual harm has been measured, assessment processes are often poorly described, limiting their ability to be reproduced by other studies. Our aim was to design and implement a new process to assess actual harm resulting from medication errors in paediatric inpatient care. METHODS: Prescribing errors were identified through retrospective medical record reviews (n = 26 369 orders) and medication administration errors through direct observation (n = 5137 administrations) in a tertiary paediatric hospital. All errors were assigned potential harm severity ratings on a 5-point scale. Multidisciplinary panels reviewed case studies for patients assigned the highest three potential severity ratings and determined the following: actual harm occurrence and severity level, plausibility of a link between the error(s) and identified harm(s) and a confidence rating if no harm had occurred. RESULTS: Multidisciplinary harm panels (n = 28) reviewed 566 case studies (173 prescribing related and 393 administration related) and found evidence of actual harm in 89 (prescribing = 22, administration = 67). Eight cases of serious harm cases were found (prescribing = 1, administration = 7) and no cases of severe harm. The panels were very confident in 65% of cases (n = 302) where no harm was found. Potential and actual harm ratings varied. CONCLUSIONS: This harm assessment process provides a systematic method for determining actual harm from medication errors. The multidisciplinary nature of the panels was critical in evaluating specific clinical, therapeutic and contextual considerations including care delivery pathways, therapeutic dose ranges and drug-drug and drug-disease interactions.

The Economics of Medication Safety: A Cost-Benefits Analysis Framework for Evaluating an Electronic Medication System.

Medication prescribing in paediatrics is complex and compounded by the need to provide age and weight related doses, and errors continue to be problematic. Electronic medication systems (EMS) can reduce errors through dosing calculators and computerised decision support. However, evidence on costs and benefits of these systems is limited, particularly in paediatric hospitals. This paper presents the development of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework to assess the impact of an EMS implementation in a paediatric tertiary hospital. An innovative component of the framework is the incorporation of the impact of the effects of the EMS for both the health system as well as for patients and their wider family networks, allowing a net social benefit assessment. We describe the impact of non-clinical out-of-pocket costs of admission and use discrete choice experiments to measure both medication related harm and the importance of medication safety to families and members of the community.