Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.

Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.

Biological control interventions reduce pest abundance and crop damage while maintaining natural enemies in sub-Saharan Africa: a meta-analysis.

Insect pests are a major challenge to smallholder crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where access to synthetic pesticides, which are linked to environmental and health risks, is often limited. Biological control interventions could offer a sustainable solution, yet an understanding of their effectiveness is lacking. We used a meta-analysis approach to investigate the effectiveness of commonly used biocontrol interventions and botanical pesticides on pest abundance (PA), crop damage (CD), crop yield (Y) and natural enemy abundance (NEA) when compared with controls with no biocontrol and with synthetic pesticides. We also evaluated whether the magnitude of biocontrol effectiveness was affected by type of biocontrol intervention, crop type, pest taxon, farm type and landscape configuration. Overall, from 99 studies on 31 crops, we found that compared to no biocontrol, biocontrol interventions reduced PA by 63%, CD by over 50% and increased Y by over 60%. Compared to synthetic pesticides, biocontrol resulted in comparable PA and Y, while NEA was 43% greater. Our results also highlighted that the potential for biocontrol to be modulated by landscape configuration is a critical knowledge gap in SSA. We show that biocontrol represents an effective tool for smallholder farmers, which can maintain yields without associated negative pesticide effects. Furthermore, the evidence presented here advocates strongly for including biocontrol practices in national and regional agricultural policies.

Combining local knowledge and soil science for integrated soil health assessments in conservation agriculture systems.

The challenges of soil degradation and climate change have led to the emergence of Conservation Agriculture (CA) as a sustainable alternative to tillage-based agriculture systems. Despite the recognition of positive impacts on soil health, CA adoption in Africa has remained low. Previous soil health studies have mainly focused on 'scientific' measurements, without consideration of local knowledge, which influences how farmers interpret CA impacts and future land management decisions. This study, based in Malawi, aims to 1) combine local knowledge and conventional soil science approaches to develop a contextualised understanding of the impact of CA on soil health; and 2) understand how an integrated approach can contribute to explaining farmer decision-making on land management. Key farmers' indicators of soil health were crop performance, soil consistence, moisture content, erosion, colour, and structure. These local indicators were consistent with conventional soil health indicators. By combining farmers' observations with soil measurements, we observed that CA improved soil structure, moisture (Mwansambo 7.54%-38.15% lower for CP; Lemu 1.57%-47.39% lower for CP) and infiltration (Lemu CAM/CAML 0.15 cms-1, CP 0.09 cms-1; Mwansambo CP/CAM 0.14 cms-1, CAML 0.18 cms-1). In the conventional practice, farmers perceived ridges to redistribute nutrients, which corresponded with recorded higher exchangeable ammonium (Lemu CP 76.0 mgkg -1, CAM 49.4 mgkg -1, CAML 51.7 mgkg -1), nitrate/nitrite values (Mwansambo CP 200.7 mgkg -1, CAM 171.9 mgkg -1, CAML 103.3 mgkg -1). This perception contributes to the popularity of ridges, despite the higher yield measurements under CA (Mwansambo CP 3225 kgha-1, CAML 5067 kgha-1, CAM 5160 kgha-1; Lemu CP 2886 kgha-1, CAM 2872 kgha-1, CAML 3454 kgha-1 ). The perceived carbon benefits of residues and ridge preference has promoted burying residues in ridges. Integrated approaches contribute to more nuanced and localized perceptions about land management. We propose that the stepwise integrated soil assessment framework developed in this study can be applied more widely in understanding the role of soil health in farmer-decision making, providing a learning process for downscaling technologies and widening the evidence base on sustainable land management practices.

Power and Language in Medical Education.

As medical educators, we aspire to teach the physicians of tomorrow the importance of considering a patient's social, environmental, historical, and cultural context when caring for them. In this paper, we posit that the language we use to communicate concepts and to describe patients and communities can have profound implications. Linguistic forms such as labels, metaphors, and descriptors can lead to disparities in care and reinforce systemic and structural inequities. At the same time, medical educators are challenged by changing language and contexts. The mutability of language offers medical educators the chance to cultivate tolerance of ambiguity, curiosity, and attention to detail in their students. While offering examples of how language in medical education can perpetuate biases that affect patient care, this paper will emphasize how the practice of attention to language is itself critical (rather than provide a list of appropriate words).

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.

Mainstreaming conservation agriculture in Malawi: Knowledge gaps and institutional barriers.

Conservation agriculture (CA) practices of reduced soil tillage, permanent organic soil coverage and intercropping/crop rotation, are being advocated globally, based on perceived benefits for crop yields, soil carbon storage, weed suppression, reduced soil erosion and improved soil water retention. However, some have questioned their efficacy due to uncertainty around the performance and trade-offs associated with CA practices, and their compatibility with the diverse livelihood strategies and varied agro-ecological conditions across African smallholder systems. This paper assesses the role of key institutions in Malawi in shaping pathways towards more sustainable land management based on CA by outlining their impact on national policy-making and the design and implementation of agricultural development projects. It draws on interviews at national, district and project levels and a multi-stakeholder workshop that mapped the institutional landscape of decision-making for agricultural land management practices. Findings identify knowledge gaps and institutional barriers that influence land management decision-making and constrain CA uptake. We use our findings to set out an integrated roadmap of research needs and policy options aimed at supporting CA as a route to enhanced sustainable land management in Malawi. Findings offer lessons that can inform design, planning and implementation of CA projects, and identify the multi-level institutional support structures required for mainstreaming sustainable land management in sub-Saharan Africa.

Deliberative assessment in complex socioecological systems: recommendations for environmental assessment in drylands.

Desertification is a complex process, characterised not only by a damaged ecology but also by conflict over access to scarce resources and trade-offs between the needs of multiple stakeholders at multiple scales. As such, orthodox approaches to environmental assessment in drylands, which rely solely on ecological expertise, are gradually losing legitimacy and greater attention is being given to integrated and participatory assessment approaches, which draw on multiple sources of knowledge in order to accurately describe complex socioecological processes. Moreover, there is growing recognition that successful management of desertification requires a strategy that can accommodate the multiple and often competing needs of contemporary and future stakeholders. In light of these conceptual advances, this paper highlights seven key criteria that dryland environmental assessments must meet: (1) accurately understand complex socioecological system processes, (2) focus on slow variables, (3) integrate multiple scales of analysis, (4) integrate multiple stakeholder perspectives and values, (5) ensure that future generations are fairly represented, (6) ensure that less powerful stakeholders are fairly represented and (7) integrate local and scientific knowledge. The virtues and challenges of deliberative environmental assessments, a novel subset of participatory environmental assessment approaches which places emphasis on social learning, argumentation and critical reflection, are considered in relation to each of these requirements. We argue that deliberative approaches have the potential to achieve accurate, progressive and integrated assessment of dryland environments.

The future of nuclear power: value orientations and risk perception.

Since the turn of the 21st century, there has been a revival of interest in nuclear power. Two decades ago, the expansion of nuclear power in the United States was halted by widespread public opposition as well as rising costs and less than projected increases in demand for electricity. Can the renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power overcome its history of public resistance that has persisted for decades? We propose that attitudes toward nuclear power are a function of perceived risk, and that both attitudes and risk perceptions are a function of values, beliefs, and trust in the institutions that influence nuclear policy. Applying structural equation models to data from a U.S. national survey, we find that increased trust in the nuclear governance institutions reduces perceived risk of nuclear power and together higher trust and lower risk perceptions predict positive attitudes toward nuclear power. Trust in environmental institutions and perceived risks from global environmental problems do not predict attitudes toward nuclear power. Values do predict attitudes: individuals with traditional values have greater support for, while those with altruistic values have greater opposition to, nuclear power. Nuclear attitudes do not vary by gender, age, education, income, or political orientation, though nonwhites are more supportive than whites. These findings are consistent with, and provide an explanation for, a long series of public opinion polls showing public ambivalence toward nuclear power that persists even in the face of renewed interest for nuclear power in policy circles.