Identifying governance strategies that effectively support ecosystem services, resource sustainability, and biodiversity.

Conservation scientists, national governments, and international conservation groups seek to devise, and implement, governance strategies that mitigate human impact on the environment. However, few studies to date have systematically investigated the performance of different systems of governance in achieving successful conservation outcomes. Here, we use a newly-developed analytic framework to conduct analyses of a suite of case studies, linking different governance strategies to standardized scores for delivering ecosystem services, achieving sustainable use of natural resources, and conserving biodiversity, at both local and international levels. Our results: (i) confirm the benefits of adaptive management; and (ii) reveal strong associations for the role of leadership. Our work provides a critical step toward implementing empirically justified governance strategies that are capable of improving the management of human-altered environments, with benefits for both biodiversity and people.

Warmer springs advance the breeding phenology of golden plovers Pluvialis apricaria and their prey (Tipulidae).

Most studies of climate-driven changes in avian breeding phenology have focused on temperate passerines, yet the consequences of such environmental change may be more deleterious for other avian taxa, such as arctic and sub-arctic waders (Charadrii). We therefore examine large-scale climatic correlates of the breeding phenology of one such species (golden plover Pluvialis apricaria), and the timing of emergence of their adult tipulid prey, to assess the potential for climate change to disrupt breeding performance. Golden plover first-laying dates were negatively correlated with both March and April temperature, the mean laying date of first clutches was additionally negatively correlated with March rainfall. The timing of final laying dates were negatively correlated with April temperature only. The timing of tipulid emergence was negatively correlated with May temperature. In combination with historical climatic data, these models suggest a 9-day advancement of golden plover first-laying dates occurred during the 1990s, although this remains within the range of natural variation for the twentieth century. The magnitudes of predicted changes in mean and final laying dates, and the timing of tipulid emergence, were smaller. Climate predictions for 2070-2099 suggest potential advances in first-laying dates by 25 days, whilst the timings of mean and final laying dates are predicted to change by 18 days and 13 days, and tipulid emergence by 12 days. Given the importance of adult tipulids to young golden plover chicks, these changes may result in a mismatch between the timing of first-laying dates and tipulid emergence, so reducing the success of early breeding attempts. Modelling suggests that these changes could reduce breeding success in a South Pennines population by about 11%.

Good foragers can also be good at detecting predators.

The degree to which foraging and vigilance are mutually exclusive is crucial to understanding the management of the predation and starvation risk trade-off in animals. We tested whether wild-caught captive chaffinches that feed at a higher rate do so at the expense of their speed in responding to a model sparrowhawk flying nearby, and whether consistently good foragers will therefore tend to respond more slowly on average. First, we confirmed that the time taken to respond to the approaching predator depended on the rate of scanning: as head-up rate increased so chaffinches responded more quickly. However, against predictions, as peck rate increased so head-up rate increased and mean length of head-up and head-down periods decreased. Head-up rate was probably dependent on peck rate because almost every time a seed was found, a bird raised its head to handle it. Therefore chaffinches with higher peck rates responded more quickly. Individual chaffinches showed consistent durations of both their head-down and head-up periods and, therefore, individuals that were good foragers were also good detectors of predators. In relation to the broad range of species that have a similar foraging mode to chaffinches, our results have two major implications for predation/starvation risk trade-offs: (i) feeding rate can determine vigilance scanning patterns; and (ii) the best foragers can also be the best at detecting predators. We discuss how our results can be explained in mechanistic terms relating to fundamental differences in how the probabilities of detecting food rather than a predator are affected by time. In addition, our results offer a plausible explanation for the widely observed effect that vigilance continues to decline with group size even when there is no further benefit to reducing vigilance.