Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change.

About 70% of the world's main crops depend on insect pollination. Climate change is already affecting the abundance and distribution of insects, which could cause geographical mismatches between crops and their pollinators. Crops that rely primarily on wild pollinators (e.g., crops that cannot be effectively pollinated by commercial colonies of honey bees) could be particularly in jeopardy. However, limited information on plant-pollinator associations and pollinator distributions complicate the assessment of climate change impacts on specific crops. To study the potential impacts of climate change on pollination of a specific crop in North America, we use the case of open-field tomato crops, which rely on buzz pollinators (species that use vibration to release pollen, such as bumble bees) to increase their production. We aimed to (1) assess potential changes in buzz pollinator distribution and richness, and (2) evaluate the overlap between areas with high densities of tomato crops and high potential decrease in richness. We used baseline (1961-1990) climate and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic projections in ecological niche models fitted with occurrences of wild bees, documented in the literature as pollinators of tomatoes, to estimate the baseline and future potential distribution of suitable climatic conditions of targeted species and to create maps of richness change across North America. We obtained reliable models for 15 species and found important potential decreases in the distribution of some pollinators (e.g., Lasioglossum pectorale and Augochlorella aurata). We observed geographical discrepancies in the projected change in species richness across North America, detecting important declines in the eastern United States (up to 11 species decrease for 2050s). After overlapping the maps of species richness change with a tomato crop map for the United States, we found spatial correspondence between richness declines and areas with high concentration of tomato crops. Disparities in the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of different wild pollinators and geographical variation in richness highlight the importance of crop-specific studies. Our study also emphasizes the challenges of compiling and modeling crop-specific pollinator data and the need to improve our understanding of current distribution of pollinators and their community dynamics under climate change.

Determining Spread Rate of Kudzu Bug (Hemiptera: Plataspidae) and Its Associations With Environmental Factors in a Heterogeneous Landscape.

By the end of 2017, kudzu bug was reported in 652 counties in the United States since it was first observed in Georgia in 2009. Modeling its invasion dynamics is valuable to guide management through early detection and prevention of further invasion. Herein, we initially estimated the spread rate of kudzu bug with county-level invasion records and then determined important spatial factors affecting its spread during years 2010-2016. As kudzu bug infests a large heterogeneous area and shows asymmetric spread, we first utilized spatially constrained clustering (SCC), an unsupervised machine learning method, to divide the infested area into eight spatially contiguous and environmentally homogenous neighborhoods. We then used distance regression and boundary displacement methods to estimate the spread rates in all neighborhoods. Finally, we applied multiple regression to determine spatial factors influencing the spread of kudzu bug. The average spread rate reached 76 km/yr by boundary displacement method; however, the rate varied largely among eight neighborhoods (45-144 km/yr). In the southern region of the infested area, host plant density and wind speed were positively associated with the spread rate, whereas mean annual temperature, precipitation in the fall, and elevation had inverse relationships. In the northern region, January minimum temperature, wind speed, and human population density showed positive relationships. This study increases the knowledge on the spread dynamics of kudzu bug. Our research highlights the utility of SCC to determine natural clustering in a large heterogeneous region for better modeling of local spread patterns and determining important factors affecting the invasions.

Emergence, Seasonality, and Hybridization of Laricobius nigrinus (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), an Introduced Predator of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), in the Tennessee Appalachians.

From 2010 through 2013, adult emergence and seasonality of Laricobius nigrinus Fender, an introduced predatory species native to western North America, as well as hybridization with the native species Laricobius rubidus (LeConte), were evaluated using emergence traps and beat-sheet sampling in areas of previous release against hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand. The shortest emergence period of adult L. nigrinus was 7 wk beginning 22 October 2010, and the longest emergence was 15 wk beginning 17 October 2012. Native L. rubidus also were collected from emergence traps placed on the ground surface and beat-sheet samples all 3 yr, with emergence of L. rubidus initiating later than L. nigrinus each season. Seasonality of both Laricobius species was similar across a 44-mo study period. Adult L. nigrinus were present from October through April, and larvae of Laricobius spp. were collected from February to May. The average number of L. nigrinus from emergence traps was significantly greater than the average number of beetles collected from beat-sheet samples in 2010, while the converse was observed during 2012. Hybridization between L. nigrinus and L. rubidus was documented from 10.75% of specimens collected during 2010 and 2011, indicating periodic interbreeding between the introduced and native species. These findings suggest emergence trapping may be a useful method to assess establishment, population densities, and seasonality of Laricobius species in areas of release to enhance their use in management of A. tsuage.