Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services in the Aral Sea basin under different CMIP6 projections.

The Aral Sea, located in Central Asia, has undergone significant reduction in surface area owing to the combined impacts of climate change and human activities. This reduction has led to a regional ecological crisis and profound repercussions on ecosystem services. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations and synergistic trade-offs of ESs in the Aral Sea basin is crucial for fostering the integrated development of the region's socioeconomic ecology. This study utilizes the Future Land-Use Simulation and InVEST models to analyze future land-use scenarios, integrating CMIP6 projections to assess the quality of four key ecosystem services: water production, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality over two timeframes: the historical period (1995-2020) and the projected future (2021-2100). Employing Spearman correlation, the study explores the trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services. Findings reveal that the primary forms of land-use change in the Aral Sea basin are the reduction in water area (- 49.59%) and the rapid expansion of urban areas (+ 504.65%). Temporally, habitat quality exhibits a declining trend, while carbon storage shows an increasing trend, and water production and soil retention fluctuate initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially, water production and carbon storage demonstrate an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast. Habitat quality exhibits a higher spatial pattern in the southeast and south, contrasting with lower spatial patterns in the north and west. Low-level soil conservation is predominantly distributed in the northwest, while medium to low-level soil conservation is prevalent in the east of the basin. The trade-off and synergy analysis indicates that between 1995 and 2020, a trade-off relationship existed between carbon storage and habitat quality and water production, whereas synergies were observed between soil conservation and carbon storage, water production and habitat quality, and soil conservation. The correlation between water production and soil conservation emerges as the strongest, whereas the correlation between carbon storage and habitat quality appears to be the weakest. The dynamic spatiotemporal changes, trade-offs, and collaborative relationships of ESs constitute major aspects of ecosystem service research, holding substantial implications for the effective management of the regional ecological environment.

Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhodiola L. in China under Climate Change Scenarios.

Rhodiola L. has high nutritional and medicinal value. Little is known about the properties of its habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping its suitability. Rhodiola coccinea (Royle) Boriss., Rhodiola gelida Schrenk, Rhodiola kirilowii (Regel) Maxim., and Rhodiola quadrifida (Pall.) Fisch. et Mey., which are National Grade II Protected Plants, were selected for this research. Based on high-resolution environmental data for the past, current, and future climate scenarios, we modeled the suitable habitat for four species by MaxEnt, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the growth distribution of R. coccinea, R. kirilowii, and R. quadrifida is most affected by bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), bio3 (isothermality), and bio12 (annual precipitation), whereas that of R. gelida is most affected by bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), and bio16 (precipitation of wettest quarter). Under the current climate scenario, R. coccinea and R. quadrifida are primarily distributed in Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, and according to the 2070 climate scenario, the suitable habitats for both species are expected to expand. On the other hand, the suitable habitats for R. gelida and R. kirilowii, which are primarily concentrated in southwestern Xinjiang, Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, are projected to decrease under the 2070 climate scenario. Given these results, the four species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted observation management to ensure the renewal of Rhodiola communities. In particular, R. gelida and R. kirilowii should be given more attention. This study provides a useful reference with valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for these four nationally protected plant species.

Spatiotemporal change in the land use and ecosystem service value in the Aral Sea basin (1993-2018).

The Aral Sea started shrinking since the 1960s due to natural factors and human activities; however, the relationship between land cover change and ecosystem services (ES) in the Aral Sea basin has not been fully studied. To analyze and explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of ecosystem service values (ESVs) in this region, we used the European Space Agency CCI Global Land Cover product with a spatiotemporal resolution of 300 × 300 m and the annual scale. The land use data of 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 in the study area were extracted; the study area's ESV in the corresponding years was calculated; and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics were analyzed. Additionally, the change rate and sensitivity were analyzed. The results revealed that the area of urban land, bare land, grassland, wetland, and cropland in the Aral Sea basin increased from 1993 to 2018; water body and forestland decreased. The integrated value of water bodies, cropland, and grassland ES accounted for more than 93.43% of the total ESV; the change rate of land use types differed. Urban land and water changed the fastest; cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and wetland changed the slowest. From 1993 to 2018, the total ESV of the Aral Sea basin decreased from 476.44 to 437.09 billion (overall decrease = -8.26%). The ESV study shows that the water area decreased sharply from 1993 to 2018, resulting in a loss of USD 46.84 billion. Biodiversity, food production, and water regulation were the main ES, accounting for 74.59% of the total ESV. The ESV of the Aral Sea basin declined from 1993 to 2018, and significant differences were observed among its regions. The sensitivity indexes of each period are far less than 1, indicating that the total estimated ecosystem values are inelastic with respect to the ecosystem value coefficients. Some regions should thus focus on this aspect. A close correlation was observed between the ESV and land use. Hence, effective land use policies can control the expansion of cropland; protect water bodies, ecological environments, grassland, and forestland; and promote a more sustainable ecosystem.

Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Growth Suppression and Adverse Effects on Human Health Due to Air Pollution in the Upper Silesian Industrial District (USID), Southern Poland.

Air pollution emissions were not continually monitored in the Upper Silesian Industrial District (USID), southern Poland, and data is only available for the last 20 years. Long-lasting and severe tree ring reductions in pines growing 5-20 km north of the USID area recorded particularly high levels of air pollution emissions in the period 1950-1990. Especially high amounts of reductions and many missing rings were found in the period 1964-1981. At the same time, pines growing 60 km west of the USID do not record deep ring reductions; this proves that the phenomenon is of a regional nature. Increases in infant mortality and lung, bronchial, and tracheal cancer morbidity rates among males were also recorded in the USID during periods of high air pollution. Infant mortality rates increased several years after the tree ring reductions. Therefore, it may be possible to use tree ring reductions as an early indicator of the occurrence of adverse effects on human health.