Change in cervical length after arrested preterm labor and risk of preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between preterm birth and cervical length after arrested preterm labor in high-risk pregnant women. METHODS: In this post-hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial, transvaginal cervical length was measured in women whose contractions had ceased 48 h after admission for threatened preterm labor. At admission, women were defined as having a high risk of preterm birth based on a cervical length of < 15 mm or a cervical length of 15-30 mm with a positive fetal fibronectin test. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of cervical length measured at least 48 h after admission and of the change in cervical length between admission and at least 48 h later, with preterm birth before 34 weeks' gestation and delivery within 7 days after admission. RESULTS: A total of 164 women were included in the analysis. Women whose cervical length increased between admission for threatened preterm labor and 48 h later (32%; n = 53) were found to have a lower risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks compared with women whose cervical length did not change (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.69)). The risk in women with a decrease in cervical length between the two timepoints was not different from that in women with no change in cervical length (aOR, 1.45 (95% CI, 0.62-3.41)). Moreover, greater absolute cervical length after 48 h was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks (aOR, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.96)) and delivery within 7 days after admission (aOR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.02)). Sensitivity analysis in women randomized to receive no intervention showed comparable results. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that the risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks is lower in women whose cervical length increases between admission for threatened preterm labor and at least 48 h later when contractions had ceased compared with women in whom cervical length does not change or decreases. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Child outcomes after amnioinfusion compared with no intervention in women with second-trimester rupture of membranes: a long-term follow-up study of the PROMEXIL-III trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of transabdominal amnioinfusion or no intervention on long-term outcomes in children born after second-trimester prelabour rupture of the membranes (PROM between 16+0/7 -24+0/7  weeks) and oligohydramnios. POPULATION: Follow up of infants of women who participated in the randomised controlled trial: PPROMEXIL-III (NTR3492). METHODS: Surviving infants were invited for neurodevelopmental assessment up to 5 years of corrected age using a Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development or a Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence. Parents were asked to complete several questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Neurodevelopmental outcomes were measured. Mild delay was defined as -1 standard deviation (SD), severe delay as -2 SD. Healthy long-term survival was defined as survival without neurodevelopmental delay or respiratory problems. RESULTS: In the amnioinfusion group, 18/28 children (64%) died versus 21/28 (75%) in the no intervention group (relative risk 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-1.22). Follow-up data were obtained from 14/17 (82%) children (10 amnioinfusion, 4 no intervention). In both groups, 2/28 (7.1%) had a mild neurodevelopmental delay. No severe delay was seen. Healthy long-term survival occurred in 5/28 children (17.9%) after amnioinfusion versus 2/28 (7.1%) after no intervention (odds ratio 2.50; 95% CI 0.53-11.83). When analysing data for all assessed survivors, 10/14 (71.4%) survived without mild neurodevelopmental delay and 7/14 (50%) were classified healthy long-term survivor. CONCLUSIONS: In this small sample of women suffering second-trimester PROM and oligohydramnios, amnioinfusion did not improve long-term outcomes. Overall, 71% of survivors had no neurodevelopmental delay. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Healthy long-term survival was comparable for children born after second-trimester PROM and treatment with amnioinfusion or no intervention.

Induction of labor with Foley catheter and risk of subsequent preterm birth: follow-up study of two randomized controlled trials (PROBAAT-1 and -2).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the rate of preterm birth (PTB) in a subsequent pregnancy in women who had undergone term induction using a Foley catheter compared with prostaglandins. METHODS: This was a follow-up study of two large randomized controlled trials (PROBAAT-1 and PROBAAT-2). In the original trials, women with a term singleton pregnancy with the fetus in cephalic presentation and with an indication for labor induction were randomized to receive either a 30-mL Foley catheter or prostaglandins (vaginal prostaglandin E2 in PROBAAT-1 and oral misoprostol in PROBAAT-2). Data on subsequent ongoing pregnancies > 16 weeks' gestation were collected from hospital charts from clinics participating in this follow-up study. The main outcome measure was preterm birth < 37 weeks' gestation in a subsequent pregnancy. RESULTS: Fourteen hospitals agreed to participate in this follow-up study. Of the 1142 eligible women, 572 had been allocated to induction of labor using a Foley catheter and 570 to induction of labor using prostaglandins. Of these, 162 (14%) were lost to follow-up. In total, 251 and 258 women had a known subsequent pregnancy > 16 weeks' gestation in the Foley catheter and prostaglandin groups, respectively. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups. The overall rate of PTB in a subsequent pregnancy was 9/251 (3.6%) in the Foley catheter group vs 10/258 (3.9%) in the prostaglandin group (relative risk (RR), 0.93; 95% CI, 0.38-2.24), and the rate of spontaneous PTB was 5/251 (2.0%) vs 5/258 (1.9%) (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.30-3.51). CONCLUSION: In women with term singleton pregnancy, induction of labor using a 30-mL Foley catheter is not associated with an increased risk of PTB in a subsequent pregnancy, as compared to induction of labor using prostaglandins. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Cost effectiveness of nifedipine compared with atosiban in the treatment of threatened preterm birth (APOSTEL III trial).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment with nifedipine compared with atosiban in women with threatened preterm birth. DESIGN: An economic analysis alongside a randomised clinical trial (the APOSTEL III study). SETTING: Obstetric departments of 12 tertiary hospitals and seven secondary hospitals in the Netherlands and Belgium. POPULATION: Women with threatened preterm birth between 25 and 34 weeks of gestation, randomised for tocolysis with either nifedipine or atosiban. METHODS: We performed an economic analysis from a societal perspective. We estimated costs from randomisation until discharge. Analyses for singleton and multiple pregnancies were performed separately. The robustness of our findings was evaluated in sensitivity analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean costs and differences were calculated per woman treated with nifedipine or atosiban. Health outcomes were expressed as the prevalence of a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes. RESULTS: Mean costs per patients were significantly lower in the nifedipine group [singleton pregnancies: €34,897 versus €43,376, mean difference (MD) -€8479 [95% confidence interval (CI) -€14,327 to -€2016)]; multiple pregnancies: €90,248 versus €102,292, MD -€12,044 (95% CI -€21,607 to € -1671). There was a non-significantly higher death rate in the nifedipine group. The difference in costs was mainly driven by a lower neonatal intensive care unit admission (NICU) rate in the nifedipine group. CONCLUSION: Treatment with nifedipine in women with threatened preterm birth results in lower costs when compared with treatment with atosiban. However, the safety of nifedipine warrants further investigation. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: In women with threatened preterm birth, tocolysis using nifedipine results in lower costs when compared with atosiban.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic testing strategies including cervical-length measurement and fibronectin testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combining cervical-length (CL) measurement and fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor between 24 and 34 weeks' gestation. METHODS: This was a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating seven test-treatment strategies based on CL measurement and/or fFN testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor from a societal perspective, in which neonatal outcomes and costs were weighted. Estimates of disease prevalence, test accuracy and costs were based on two recently performed nationwide cohort studies in The Netherlands. RESULTS: Strategies using fFN testing and CL measurement separately to predict preterm delivery are associated with higher costs and incidence of adverse neonatal outcomes compared with strategies that combine both tests. Additional fFN testing when CL is 15-30 mm was considered cost effective, leading to a cost saving of €3919 per woman when compared with a treat-all strategy, with a small deterioration in neonatal health outcomes, namely one additional perinatal death and 21 adverse outcomes per 10 000 women with signs of preterm labor (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios €39 million and €1.9 million, respectively). Implementing this strategy in The Netherlands, a country with about 180 000 deliveries annually, could lead to an annual cost saving of between €2.4 million and €7.6 million, with only a small deterioration in neonatal health outcomes. CONCLUSION: In women with symptoms of preterm labor at 24-34 weeks' gestation, performing additional fFN testing when CL is between 15 and 30 mm is a viable and cost-saving strategy. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prenatal (non)treatment decisions in extreme prematurity: evaluation of decisional conflict and regret among parents.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/jp.2017.90.

Prenatal (non)treatment decisions in extreme prematurity: evaluation of Decisional Conflict and Regret among parents.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate Decisional Conflict and Regret among parents regarding the decision on initiating comfort or active care in extreme prematurity and to relate these to decision-making characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: A nationwide, multicenter, cross-sectional study using an online survey in the Netherlands. Data were collected from March 2015 to March 2016 among all parents with infants born at 24+0/7-24+6/7 weeks gestational age in 2010-2013. The survey contained a Decisional Conflict and Decision Regret Scale (potential scores range from 0 to 100) and decision-making characteristics. RESULTS: Sixty-one surveys were returned (response rate 27%). The median Decisional Conflict score was 28. From the subscores within Decisional Conflict, 'values clarity' revealed the highest median score of 42-revealing that parents felt unclear about personal values for benefits and risks of the decision on either comfort care or active care. The median Decision Regret score was 0. Regret scores were influenced by the actual decision made and by outcome: Decision Regret was lower in the active care group and in the survivor group. CONCLUSION: We found little Decisional Conflict and no Decision Regret among parents regarding decision-making at 24 weeks gestation.

An economic analysis of immediate delivery and expectant monitoring in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation (HYPITAT-II).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic consequences of immediate delivery compared with expectant monitoring in women with preterm non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (HYPITAT-II). SETTING: Obstetric departments of seven academic hospitals and 44 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women diagnosed with non-severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, randomly allocated to either immediate delivery or expectant monitoring. METHODS: A trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a healthcare perspective until final maternal and neonatal discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Health outcomes were expressed as the prevalence of respiratory distress syndrome, defined as the need for supplemental oxygen for >24 hours combined with radiographic findings typical for respiratory distress syndrome. Costs were estimated from a healthcare perspective until maternal and neonatal discharge. RESULTS: The average costs of immediate delivery (n = 352) were €10 245 versus €9563 for expectant monitoring (n = 351), with an average difference of €682 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI -€618 to €2126). This 7% difference predominantly originated from the neonatal admissions, which were €5672 in the immediate delivery arm and €3929 in the expectant monitoring arm. CONCLUSION: In women with mild hypertensive disorders between 340/7 and 370/7  weeks of gestation, immediate delivery is more costly than expectant monitoring as a result of differences in neonatal admissions. These findings support expectant monitoring, as the clinical outcomes of the trial demonstrated that expectant monitoring reduced respiratory distress syndrome for a slightly increased risk of maternal complications. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Expectant management in preterm hypertensive disorders is less costly compared with immediate delivery.

Prediction of Time to Delivery Week-by-Week in Women with a Triplet Pregnancy.

Objective Some clinicians advise prophylactic administration of antenatal steroids for fetal lung maturation in women with a triplet pregnancy. However, the effect of corticosteroids is limited to 10 to 14 days after administration. The aim of this study was to assess the natural course of triplet pregnancies to allow a better anticipation for administration of corticosteroids. Study Design We collected data on all triplet pregnancies in the Netherlands from 1999 to 2007 from the Netherlands Perinatal Registration. We calculated time to delivery, the risk of delivery in 2-week intervals at different gestational ages, and the time frame between hospital admission and delivery of the first child. Results Median gestational age at delivery of 494 women with a triplet pregnancy was 33+4 weeks (interquartile range of 31-35+1 weeks). Twenty-one women (4.3%) delivered between 22 and 24 weeks and 146 women (29.6%) delivered before 32 weeks. At a gestational age of 24 weeks, the chance to deliver within the next week was 0.6%. For 26, 28, 30, 31, and 32 weeks, these risks were 2.4, 2.5, 8.1, 7, and 16.7%, respectively. Conclusion Before 32 weeks of gestation, prophylactic administration of steroids is not indicated as the risk to deliver within 7 days is < 10%.

A multivariable model to guide the decision for pessary placement to prevent preterm birth in women with a multiple pregnancy: a secondary analysis of the ProTWIN trial.

OBJECTIVE: The ProTWIN Trial (NTR1858) showed that, in women with a multiple pregnancy and a cervical length < 25(th) percentile (38 mm), prophylactic use of a cervical pessary reduced the risk of adverse perinatal outcome. We investigated whether other maternal or pregnancy characteristics collected at baseline can improve identification of women most likely to benefit from pessary placement. METHODS: ProTWIN is a multicenter randomized trial in which 808 women with a multiple pregnancy were assigned to pessary or control. Using these data we developed a multivariable logistic model comprising treatment, cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses, and the interaction of these variables with treatment as predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. RESULTS: Short cervix, monochorionicity and nulliparity were predictive factors for a benefit from pessary insertion. History of previous preterm birth and triplet pregnancy were predictive factors of possible harm from pessary. The model identified 35% of women as benefiting (95% CI, 32-39%), which is 10% more than using cervical length only (25%) for pessary decisions. The model had acceptable calibration. We estimated that using the model to guide the choice of pessary placement would reduce the risk of adverse perinatal outcome significantly from 13.5% when no pessary is inserted to 8.1% (absolute risk reduction, 5.4% (95% CI, 2.1-8.6%)). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a multivariable treatment selection model, with cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses. If externally validated, it could be used to identify women with a twin pregnancy who would benefit from a pessary, and lead to a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes in these women. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery in symptomatic women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether in symptomatic women, the combination of quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) improves the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN and CL. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of frozen fFN samples of a nationwide cohort study. SETTING: Ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation. METHODS: The risk of PTD <7 days was estimated in predefined CL and fFN strata. We used logistic regression to develop a model including quantitative fFN and CL, and one including qualitative fFN (threshold 50 ng/ml) and CL. We compared the models' capacity to identify women at low risk (<5%) for delivery within 7 days using a reclassification table. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Spontaneous delivery within 7 days after study entry. RESULTS: We studied 350 women, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within 7 days. The risk of PTD in <7 days ranged from 2% in the lowest fFN group (<10 ng/ml) to 71% in the highest group (>500 ng/ml). Multivariable logistic regression showed an increasing risk of PTD in <7 days with rising fFN concentration [10-49 ng/ml: odds ratio (OR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.23-7.0; 50-199 ng/ml: OR 3.2, 95% CI 0.79-13; 200-499 ng/ml: OR 9.0, 95% CI 2.3-35; >500 ng/ml: OR 39, 95% CI 9.4-164] and shortening of the CL (OR 0.86 per mm, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). Use of quantitative fFN instead of qualitative fFN resulted in reclassification of 18 (5%) women from high to low risk, of whom one (6%) woman delivered within 7 days. CONCLUSION: In symptomatic women, quantitative fFN testing does not improve the prediction of PTD within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN testing in combination with CL measurement in terms of reclassification from high to low (<5%) risk, but it adds value across the risk range. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Quantitative fFN testing adds value to qualitative fFN testing with CL measurement in the prediction of PTD.

Second-trimester cervical length as risk indicator for Cesarean delivery in women with twin pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether second-trimester cervical length (CL) in women with a twin pregnancy is associated with the risk of emergency Cesarean section. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of two randomized trials conducted in 57 hospitals in The Netherlands. We assessed the univariable association between risk indicators, including second-trimester CL in quartiles, and emergency Cesarean delivery using a logistic regression model. For multivariable analysis, we assessed whether adjustment for other risk indicators altered the associations found in univariable (unadjusted) analysis. Separate analyses were performed for suspected fetal distress and failure to progress in labor as indications for Cesarean section. RESULTS: In total, 311 women with a twin pregnancy attempted vaginal delivery after 34 weeks' gestation. Emergency Cesarean delivery was performed in 111 (36%) women, of which 67 (60%) were performed owing to arrest of labor. There was no relationship between second-trimester CL and Cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.97 for CL 26(th) -50(th) percentiles; 0.71 for CL 51(st) - 75(th) percentiles; and 0.92 for CL > 75(th) percentile, using CL ≤ 25(th) percentile as reference). In multivariable analysis, the only variables associated with emergency Cesarean delivery were maternal age (aOR, 1.07 (95% CI, 1.00-1.13)), body mass index (BMI) (aOR, 3.99 (95% CI, 1.07-14.9) for BMI 20-23 kg/m(2) ; 5.04 (95% CI, 1.34-19.03) for BMI 24-28 kg/m(2) ; and 3.1 (95% CI, 0.65-14.78) for BMI > 28 kg/m(2) ) and induction of labor (aOR, 1.92 (95% CI, 1.05-3.5)). CONCLUSION: In nulliparous women with a twin pregnancy, second-trimester CL is not associated with risk of emergency Cesarean delivery.

Using vaginal Group B Streptococcus colonisation in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes to guide the decision for immediate delivery: a secondary analysis of the PPROMEXIL trials.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether vaginal Group B Streptococcus (GBS) colonisation or other baseline characteristics of women with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) can help in identifying subgroups of women who would benefit from immediate delivery. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the PPROMEXIL trials. SETTING: Sixty hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women with PPROM between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation. METHODS: Random assignment of 723 women to immediate delivery or expectant management. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Early onset neonatal sepsis. RESULTS: Vaginal GBS colonisation status was the only marker which was significantly associated with the benefit of immediate delivery (P for interaction: 0.04). GBS colonisation was observed in 14% of women. The risk of early onset neonatal sepsis in GBS-positive women was high (15.2%) when they were managed expectantly but this risk was reduced to 1.8% with immediate delivery. The early onset neonatal sepsis risk was much lower in neonates of GBS-negative women: 2.6% after expectant management and 2.9% with immediate delivery. We estimated that by inducing labour only in GBS-positive women, there would be a 10.4% increase in term delivery rate, while keeping neonatal sepsis and caesarean delivery rates comparable to a strategy of labour induction for all. CONCLUSIONS: Our post hoc findings suggest that women with PROM between 34 and 37 weeks might benefit from immediate delivery if they have GBS vaginal colonisation, while in GBS-negative women labour induction could be delayed until 37 weeks.

Predicting successful intended vaginal delivery after previous caesarean section: external validation of two predictive models in a Dutch nationwide registration-based cohort with a high intended vaginal delivery rate.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two models from the USA (entry-to-care [ETC] and close-to-delivery [CTD]) that predict successful intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for the Dutch population. DESIGN: A nationwide registration-based cohort study. SETTING: Seventeen hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Seven hundred and sixty-three pregnant women, each with one previous caesarean section and a viable singleton cephalic pregnancy without a contraindication for an intended VBAC. METHODS: The ETC model comprises the variables maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, previous vaginal delivery, previous VBAC and previous nonprogressive labour. The CTD model replaces prepregnancy BMI with third-trimester BMI and adds estimated gestational age at delivery, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, cervical examination and induction of labour. We included consecutive medical records of eligible women who delivered in 2010. For validation, individual probabilities of women who had an intended VBAC were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discriminative performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and predictive performance was assessed with calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifteen (67%) of the 763 women had an intended VBAC; 72% of these (371) had an actual VBAC. The AUCs of the ETC and CTD models were 68% (95% CI 63-72%) and 72% (95% CI 67-76%), respectively. The H-L statistic showed a P-value of 0.167 for the ETC model and P = 0.356 for the CTD model, indicating no lack of fit. CONCLUSION: External validation of two predictive models developed in the USA revealed an adequate performance within the Dutch population.

Peri-partum reference ranges for ROTEM(R) thromboelastometry.

BACKGROUND: Post-partum haemorrhage (PPH) causes rapidly developing deficiencies in clotting factors and contributes to substantial maternal morbidity and mortality. Rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM(®)) is increasingly used as a point of care coagulation monitoring device in patients with massive haemorrhage; however, there are limited data on reference ranges in the peri-partum period. These are required due to the haemostatic changes in pregnancy. METHODS: In a Dutch multi-centre trial, 161 subjects were included; blood samples were obtained during labour (T1) and within 1 h of delivery (T2). Reference ranges of ROTEM(®) INTEM, EXTEM, FIBTEM, and APTEM were set and correlation with laboratory results was investigated using the guidelines of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry. RESULTS: Reference ranges were obtained for clotting time (CT), clot formation time (CFT), α-angle, clot firmness at 10 and 20 min (A10, A20), maximum clot firmness (MCF), and maximum lysis (ML). These were comparable from centre to centre, and between T1 and T2. Reference ranges T1: EXTEM: CT 31-63 s, CFT 41-120 s, and MCF 42-78 mm. INTEM: CT 109-225 s, CFT 40-103, and MCF 63-78 mm. FIBTEM: CT 31-79 s and MCF 13-45 mm. APTEM: CT 33-62 s, CFT 42-118, and MCF 61-79 mm. CONCLUSIONS: Reference values for ROTEM(®) parameters are reported. The previously published correlation between FIBTEM parameters and plasma fibrinogen levels by the Clauss method is confirmed. Further research is needed to define threshold values for haemostatic therapy in the course of PPH. Clinical trial registration NTR 2515 (http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2515).

Transfusion policy after severe postpartum haemorrhage: a randomised non-inferiority trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion on quality of life in acutely anaemic women after postpartum haemorrhage. DESIGN: Randomised non-inferiority trial. SETTING: Thirty-seven Dutch university and general hospitals. POPULATION: Women with acute anaemia (haemoglobin 4.8-7.9 g/dl [3.0-4.9 mmol/l] 12-24 hours postpartum) without severe anaemic symptoms or severe comorbidities. METHODS: Women were allocated to RBC transfusion or non-intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was physical fatigue 3 days postpartum (Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory, scale 4-20; 20 represents maximal fatigue). Non-inferiority was demonstrated if the physical fatigue difference between study arms was maximal 1.3. Secondary outcomes were health-related quality of life and physical complications. Health-related quality of life questionnaires were completed at five time-points until 6 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: In all, 521 women were randomised to non-intervention (n = 262) or RBC transfusion (n = 259). Mean physical fatigue score at day 3 postpartum, adjusted for baseline and mode of delivery, was 0.8 lower in the RBC transfusion arm (95% confidence interval: 0.1-1.5, P = 0.02) and at 1 week postpartum was 1.06 lower (95% confidence interval: 0.3-1.8, P = 0.01). A median of two RBC units was transfused in the RBC transfusion arm. In the non-intervention arm, 33 women received RBC transfusion, mainly because of anaemic symptoms. Physical complications were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Statistically, non-inferiority could not be demonstrated as the confidence interval crossed the non-inferiority boundary. Nevertheless, with only a small difference in physical fatigue and no differences in secondary outcomes, implementation of restrictive management seems clinically justified.

Vaginal birth after a caesarean section: the development of a Western European population-based prediction model for deliveries at term.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a model that predicts the outcome of an intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for a Western European population that can be used to personalise counselling for deliveries at term. DESIGN: Registration-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five university teaching hospitals, seven non-university teaching hospitals, and five non-university non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: A cohort of 515 women with a history of one caesarean section and a viable singleton pregnancy, without a contraindication for intended VBAC, who delivered at term. METHODS: Potential predictors for a vaginal delivery after caesarean section were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictors for VBAC. For model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative capacity and calibration-per-risk-quantile for accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 371 out of 515 women had a VBAC (72%). Variables included in the model were: estimated fetal weight greater than the 90(th) percentile in the third trimester; previous non-progressive labour; previous vaginal delivery; induction of labour; pre-pregnancy body mass index; and ethnicity. The AUC was 71% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 69-73%), indicating a good discriminative ability. The calibration plot shows that the predicted probabilities are well calibrated, especially from 65% up, which accounts for 77% of the total study population. CONCLUSION: We developed an appropriate Western European population-based prediction model that is aimed to personalise counselling for term deliveries.