Flight periodicity and the vertical distribution of high-altitude moth migration over southern Britain.

The continuous operation of insect-monitoring radars in the UK has permitted, for the first time, the characterization of various phenomena associated with high-altitude migration of large insects over this part of northern Europe. Previous studies have taken a case-study approach, concentrating on a small number of nights of particular interest. Here, combining data from two radars, and from an extensive suction- and light-trapping network, we have undertaken a more systematic, longer-term study of diel flight periodicity and vertical distribution of macro-insects in the atmosphere. Firstly, we identify general features of insect abundance and stratification, occurring during the 24-hour cycle, which emerge from four years' aggregated radar data for the summer months in southern Britain. These features include mass emigrations at dusk and, to a lesser extent, at dawn and daytime concentrations associated with thermal convection. We then focus our attention on the well-defined layers of large nocturnal migrants that form in the early evening, usually at heights of 200-500 m above ground. We present evidence from both radar and trap data that these nocturnal layers are composed mainly of noctuid moths, with species such as Noctua pronuba, Autographa gamma, Agrotis exclamationis, A. segetum, Xestia c-nigrum and Phlogophora meticulosa predominating.

Compensatory dynamics are rare in natural ecological communities.

In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition-driven (density-dependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.

Radar studies of the vertical distribution of insects migrating over southern Britain: the influence of temperature inversions on nocturnal layer concentrations.

Insects migrating over two sites in southern UK (Malvern in Worcestershire, and Harpenden in Hertfordshire) have been monitored continuously with nutating vertical-looking radars (VLRs) equipped with powerful control and analysis software. These observations make possible, for the first time, a systematic investigation of the vertical distribution of insect aerial density in the atmosphere, over temporal scales ranging from the short (instantaneous vertical profiles updated every 15 min) to the very long (profiles aggregated over whole seasons or even years). In the present paper, an outline is given of some general features of insect stratification as revealed by the radars, followed by a description of occasions during warm nights in the summer months when intense insect layers developed. Some of these nocturnal layers were due to the insects flying preferentially at the top of strong surface temperature inversions, and in other cases, layering was associated with higher-altitude temperature maxima, such as those due to subsidence inversions. The layers were formed from insects of a great variety of sizes, but peaks in the mass distributions pointed to a preponderance of medium-sized noctuid moths on certain occasions.

An aerial netting study of insects migrating at high altitude over England.

Day and night sampling of windborne arthropods at a height of 200 m above ground was undertaken at Cardington, Bedfordshire, UK, during July 1999, 2000 and 2002, using a net supported by a tethered balloon. The results from this study are compared with those from the classic aerial sampling programmes carried out by Hardy, Freeman and colleagues over the UK and North Sea in the 1930s. In the present study, aerial netting was undertaken at night as well as daytime, and so the diel periodicity of migration could be investigated, and comparisons made with the results from Lewis and Taylor's extensive survey of flight periodicity near ground level. In some taxa with day-time emigration, quite large populations could continue in high-altitude flight after dark, perhaps to a previously underrated extent, and this would greatly increase their potential migratory range. Any trend towards increases in night temperatures, associated with global warming, would facilitate movements of this type in the UK. Observations on the windborne migration of a variety of species, particularly those of economic significance or of radar-detectable size, are briefly discussed.

Ban on triazine herbicides likely to reduce but not negate relative benefits of GMHT maize cropping.

The UK Farm-Scale Evaluations (FSE) compared the effects on biodiversity of management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) spring-sown crops with conventional crop management. The FSE reported larger weed abundance under GMHT management for fodder maize, one of three crops studied. Increased seed production may be important for the long-term persistence of these arable weeds and may benefit invertebrates, small mammals and seed-eating birds. In three-quarters of FSE maize fields, growers used atrazine on the conventionally managed half, reflecting contemporary commercial practice. Withdrawal of the triazine herbicides atrazine, simazine and cyanazine from approved lists of EU chemicals could therefore reduce or even reverse the reported benefits of GMHT maize. Here we analyse effects of applications of triazine herbicides in conventional maize regimes on key indicators, using FSE data. Weed abundances were decreased greatly relative to all other regimes whenever atrazine was applied before weeds emerged. Here, we forecast weed abundances in post-triazine herbicide regimes. We predict weed abundances under future conventional herbicide management to be considerably larger than that for atrazine used before weeds emerged, but still smaller than for the four FSE sites analysed that used only non-triazine herbicides. Our overall conclusion is that the comparative benefits for arable biodiversity of GMHT maize cropping would be reduced, but not eliminated, by the withdrawal of triazines from conventional maize cropping.

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant and conventional spring crops. I. Soil-surface-active invertebrates.

The effects of herbicide management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) beet, maize and spring oilseed rape on the abundance and diversity of soil-surface-active invertebrates were assessed. Most effects did not differ between years, environmental zones or initial seedbanks or between sugar and fodder beet. This suggests that the results may be treated as generally applicable to agricultural situations throughout the UK for these crops. The direction of the effects was evenly balanced between increases and decreases in counts in the GMHT compared with the conventional treatment. Most effects involving a greater capture in the GMHT treatments occurred in maize, whereas most effects involving a smaller capture were in beet and spring oilseed rape. Differences between GMHT and conventional crop herbicide management had a significant effect on the capture of most surface-active invertebrate species and higher taxa tested in at least one crop, and these differences reflected the phenology and ecology of the invertebrates. Counts of carabids that feed on weed seeds were smaller in GMHT beet and spring oilseed rape but larger in GMHT maize. In contrast, collembolan detritivore counts were significantly larger under GMHT crop management.

Invertebrate responses to the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant and conventional spring crops. II. Within-field epigeal and aerial arthropods.

The effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops on the abundances of aerial and epigeal arthropods were assessed in 66 beet, 68 maize and 67 spring oilseed rape sites as part of the Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT crops. Most higher taxa were insensitive to differences between GMHT and conventional weed management, but significant effects were found on the abundance of at least one group within each taxon studied. Numbers of butterflies in beet and spring oilseed rape and of Heteroptera and bees in beet were smaller under the relevant GMHT crop management, whereas the abundance of Collembola was consistently greater in all GMHT crops. Generally, these effects were specific to each crop type, reflected the phenology and ecology of the arthropod taxa, were indirect and related to herbicide management. These results apply generally to agriculture across Britain, and could be used in mathematical models to predict the possible long-term effects of the widespread adoption of GMHT technology. The results for bees and butterflies relate to foraging preferences and might or might not translate into effects on population densities, depending on whether adoption leads to forage reductions over large areas. These species, and the detritivore Collembola, may be useful indicator species for future studies of GMHT management.

Responses of plants and invertebrate trophic groups to contrasting herbicide regimes in the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops.

Effects of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) and conventional crop management on invertebrate trophic groups (herbivores, detritivores, pollinators, predators and parasitoids) were compared in beet, maize and spring oilseed rape sites throughout the UK. These trophic groups were influenced by season, crop species and GMHT management. Many groups increased twofold to fivefold in abundance between early and late summer, and differed up to 10-fold between crop species. GMHT management superimposed relatively small (less than twofold), but consistent, shifts in plant and insect abundance, the extent and direction of these effects being dependent on the relative efficacies of comparable conventional herbicide regimes. In general, the biomass of weeds was reduced under GMHT management in beet and spring oilseed rape and increased in maize compared with conventional treatments. This change in resource availability had knock-on effects on higher trophic levels except in spring oilseed rape where herbivore resource was greatest. Herbivores, pollinators and natural enemies changed in abundance in the same directions as their resources, and detritivores increased in abundance under GMHT management across all crops. The result of the later herbicide application in GMHT treatments was a shift in resource from the herbivore food web to the detritivore food web. The Farm Scale Evaluations have demonstrated over 3 years and throughout the UK that herbivores, detritivores and many of their predators and parasitoids in arable systems are sensitive to the changes in weed communities that result from the introduction of new herbicide regimes.

On the rationale and interpretation of the Farm Scale Evaluations of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops.

Farmland biodiversity and food webs were compared in conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops of beet (Beta vulgaris L.), maize (Zea mays L.) and both spring and winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). GMHT and conventional varieties were sown in a split-field experimental design, at 60-70 sites for each crop, spread over three starting years beginning in 2000. This paper provides a background to the study and the rationale for its design and interpretation. It shows how data on environment, field management and the biota are used to assess the current state of the ecosystem, to define the typical arable field and to devise criteria for selecting, sampling and auditing experimental sites in the Farm Scale Evaluations. The main functional and taxonomic groups in the habitat are ranked according to their likely sensitivity to GMHT cropping, and the most responsive target organisms are defined. The value of the seedbank as a baseline and as an indicator of historical trends is proposed. Evidence from experiments during the twentieth century is analysed to show that large changes in field management have affected sensitive groups in the biota by ca. 50% during a year or short run of years--a figure against which to assess any positive or negative effects of GMHT cropping. The analysis leads to a summary of factors that were, and were not, examined in the first 3 years of the study and points to where modelling can be used to extrapolate the effects to the landscape and the agricultural region.

Temperature change and complex dynamics.

Density-dependent factors, such as population growth rate and migration, influence dynamic behaviour in ecological models. Temperature, an abiotic and density-independent factor, is also an important determinant of insect population growth. We investigated the endogenous dynamics of a density-dependent response-surface model that included temperature, based on time series for two aphid species. We investigated the effects of temperature and random noise on the model dynamics. In most cases, an increase in temperature resulted in a higher predicted equilibrium density; it could induce complex dynamics. Noise at the level of the natural variation in temperature resulted in extinctions in some models. Our results from these models indicate that aphid populations might become more abundant, and less stable in some circumstances, if there is climate warming.