Natural history of depression up to 18 years after stroke: a population-based South London Stroke Register study.

Background: Current evidence on the long-term natural history of post-stroke depression (PSD) is limited. We aim to determine the prevalence, incidence, duration and recurrence rates of depression to 18-years after stroke and assess differences by onset-time and depression severity. Methods: Data were from the South London Stroke Register (1995-2019, N = 6641 at registration). Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (scores > 7 = depression) at 3-months, then annually to 18-years after stroke. We compared early- (3-months post-stroke) vs late-onset depression (1-year) and initial mild (HADS scores > 7) vs severe depression (scores > 10). Findings: 3864 patients were assessed for depression at any time-points during the follow-up (male:55.4% (2141), median age: 68.0 (20.4)), with the number ranging from 2293 at 1-year to 145 at 18-years after stroke. Prevalence of PSD ranged from 31.3% (28.9-33.8) to 41.5% (33.6-49.3). The cumulative incidence of depression was 59.4% (95% CI 57.8-60.9), of which 87.9% (86.5-89.2) occurred within 5-years after stroke. Of patients with incident PSD at 3-months after stroke, 46.6% (42.1-51.2) recovered after 1 year. Among those recovered, 66.7% (58.0-74.5) experienced recurrent depression and 94.4% (87.5-98.2) of recurrences occurred within 5-years since recovery. Similar estimates were observed in patients with PSD at 1-year. 34.3% (27.9-41.1) of patients with severe depression had recovered at the next time-point, compared to 56.7% (50.5-62.8) with mild depression. Recurrence rate at 1-year after recovery was higher in patients with severe depression (52.9% (35.1-70.2)) compared to mild depression (23.5% (14.1-35.4)) (difference: 29.4% (7.6-51.2), p = 0.003). Interpretation: Long-term depressive status may be established by 5-years post-onset. Early- and late-onset depression presented similar natural history, while severe depression had a longer duration and quicker recurrence than mild depression. These estimates were limited to alive patients completing the depression assessment, who tended to have less severe stroke than excluded patients, so may be underestimated and not generalizable to all stroke survivors. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR202339).

A systematic review of the incidence and outcomes of ICD-11 defined stroke.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation has expanded the definition of stroke to include people with symptoms less than 24 hours if they have evidence of stroke on neuroimaging. The impact is that people previously diagnosed as having a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) would now be considered to have had a stroke. This change will impact incidence and outcomes of stroke and increase eligibility for secondary prevention. We aimed to evaluate the new ICD-11 criteria retrospectively to previous TIA studies to understand the change in incidence and outcomes of this type of stroke. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of observational studies of the incidence and outcomes of clinically defined TIA. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Google Scholar from inception to 23rd May 2023. Study quality was assessed using a risk of bias tool for prevalence studies. FINDINGS: Our review included 25 studies. The rate of scan positivity for stroke among those with clinically defined TIA was 24%, (95% CI, 16% - 33%) but with high heterogeneity (I2=100%, p = 0). Sensitivity analyses provided evidence that heterogeneity could be explained by methodology and recruitment method. The scan positive rate when examining only studies at low risk of bias was substantially lower, at 13% (95% CI, 11 - 15%, I2=0, p = 0.77). We estimate from population-based incidence studies that ICD-11 would result in an increase stroke incidence between 4.8 and 10.5 per 100,000 persons/year. Of those with DWI-MRI evidence of stroke, 6% (95% CI, 3 - 11%) developed a recurrent stroke in the subsequent 90 days, but with substantial heterogeneity (I2=67%, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: The impact of the ICD-11 change in stroke definition on incidence and outcomes may have been overestimated by individual studies. Community-based stroke services with access to DWI MRI are likely to accurately diagnose greater numbers of people with mild ICD-11 stroke, increasing access to effective prevention.

Data Acquisition and Intraoperative Tissue Analysis on a Mobile, Battery-Operated, Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer.

Mass spectrometry has been increasingly explored in intraoperative studies as a potential technology to help guide surgical decision making. Yet, intraoperative experiments using high-performance mass spectrometry instrumentation present a unique set of operational challenges. For example, standard operating rooms are often not equipped with the electrical requirements to power a commercial mass spectrometer and are not designed to accommodate their permanent installation. These obstacles can impact progress and patient enrollment in intraoperative clinical studies because implementation of MS instrumentation becomes limited to specific operating rooms that have the required electrical connections and space. To expand our intraoperative clinical studies using the MasSpec Pen technology, we explored the feasibility of transporting and acquiring data on Orbitrap mass spectrometers operating on battery power in hospital buildings. We evaluated the effect of instrument movement including acceleration and rotational speeds on signal stability and mass accuracy by acquiring data using direct infusion electrospray ionization. Data were acquired while rolling the systems in/out of operating rooms and while descending/ascending a freight elevator. Despite these movements and operating the instrument on battery power, the relative standard deviation of the total ion current was <5% and the magnitude of the mass error relative to the internal calibrant never exceeded 5.06 ppm. We further evaluated the feasibility of performing intraoperative MasSpec Pen analysis while operating the Orbitrap mass spectrometer on battery power during an ovarian cancer surgery. We observed that the rich and tissue-specific molecular profile commonly detected from ovarian tissues was conserved when running on battery power. Together, these results demonstrate that Orbitrap mass spectrometers can be operated and acquire data on battery power while in motion and in rotation without losses in signal stability or mass accuracy. Furthermore, Orbitrap mass spectrometers can be used in conjunction to the MasSpec Pen while on battery power for intraoperative tissue analysis.

Genetic-Guided Pharmacotherapy for Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic and Critical Review of Economic Evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Genetic-guided pharmacotherapy (PGx) is not recommended in clinical guidelines for coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to examine the extent and quality of evidence from economic evaluations of PGx in CAD and to identify variables influential in changing conclusions on cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND RESULTS: From systematic searches across 6 databases, 2 independent reviewers screened, included, and rated the methodological quality of economic evaluations of PGx testing to guide pharmacotherapy for patients with CAD. Of 35 economic evaluations included, most were model-based cost-utility analyses alone, or alongside cost-effectiveness analyses of PGx testing to stratify patients into antiplatelets (25/35), statins (2/35), pain killers (1/35), or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (1/35) to predict CAD risk (8/35) or to determine the coumadin doses (1/35). To stratify patients into antiplatelets (96/151 comparisons with complete findings of PGx versus non-PGx), PGx was more effective and more costly than non-PGx clopidogrel (28/43) but less costly than non-PGx prasugrel (10/15) and less costly and less effective than non-PGx ticagrelor (22/25). To predict CAD risk (51/151 comparisons), PGx using genetic risk scores was more effective and less costly than clinical risk score (13/17) but more costly than no risk score (16/19) or no treatment (9/9). The remaining comparisons were too few to observe any trend. Mortality risk was the most common variable (47/294) changing conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Economic evaluations to date found PGx to stratify patients with CAD into antiplatelets or to predict CAD risk to be cost-effective, but findings varied based on the non-PGx comparators, underscoring the importance of considering local practice in deciding whether to adopt PGx.

Burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe: forecasting incidence and mortality between 2019 and 2050.

Background: Anticipating the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage is crucial for proactive management and building resilience against future health challenges. Prior forecasts are based on population demography and to a lesser extent epidemiological trends. This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors and socio-demographic indicators to forecast the incidence and mortality of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe between 2019 and 2050. Methods: Three intracerebral haemorrhage risk factors identified in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD 2019)-high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index-were utilised to predict the risk-attributable fractions between 2019 and 2050. Disease burden not attributable to these risk factors was then forecasted using time series models (autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as an external predictor. The optimal parameters of ARIMA models were selected for each age-sex-country group based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Different health scenarios were constructed by extending the past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualised rates of change in risk factors and SDI across all location-years, stratified by age and sex groups. A decomposition analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of population size, age composition, and intracerebral haemorrhage risk on the projected changes. Findings: Compared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts an increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe in 2050, with a marginal rise of 0.6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], -7.4% to 9.6%) in incident cases and an 8.9% (-2.8% to 23.6%) increase in mortality, reaching 141.2 (120.6-166.5) thousand and 144.2 (122.9-172.2) thousand respectively. These projections may fluctuate depending on trajectories of the risk factors and SDI; worsened trends could result in increases of 16.7% (8.7%-25.3%) in incidence and 31.2% (17.7%-48%) in mortality, while better trajectories may lead to a 10% (16.4%-2.3%) decrease in intracerebral haemorrhage cases with stabilised mortality. Individuals aged ≥80 years are expected to contribute significantly to the burden, comprising 62.7% of the cases in 2050, up from 40% in 2019, and 72.5% of deaths, up from 50.5%. Country-wide variations were noted in the projected changes, with decreases in the standardised rates across all nations but varying crude rates. The largest relative reductions in counts for both incidence and mortality are expected in Latvia, Bulgaria, and Hungary-ranging from -38.2% to -32.4% and -37.3% to -30.2% respectively. In contrast, the greatest increases for both measures were forecasted in Ireland (45.7% and 74.4%), Luxembourg (45% and 70.7%), and Cyprus (44.5% and 74.2%). The modelled increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage could largely be attributed to population ageing. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive forecast of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe until 2050, presenting different trajectories. The potential increase in the number of people experiencing and dying from intracerebral haemorrhage could have profound implications for both caregiving responsibilities and associated costs. However, forecasts were divergent between different scenarios and among EU countries, signalling the pivotal role of public health initiatives in steering the trajectories. Funding: The European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 754517. The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research (NIHR202339).

Developing and externally validating a machine learning risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after stroke using national stroke registers in the UK and Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and externally validate a generalisable risk prediction model for 30-day stroke mortality suitable for supporting quality improvement analytics in stroke care using large nationwide stroke registers in the UK and Sweden. DESIGN: Registry-based cohort study. SETTING: Stroke registries including the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (2013-2019) and the national Swedish stroke register (Riksstroke 2015-2020). PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Data from SSNAP were used for developing and temporally validating the model, and data from Riksstroke were used for external validation. Models were developed with the variables available in both registries using logistic regression (LR), LR with elastic net and interaction terms and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Performances were evaluated with discrimination, calibration and decision curves. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was all-cause 30-day in-hospital mortality after stroke. RESULTS: In total, 488 497 patients who had a stroke with 12.4% 30-day in-hospital mortality were used for developing and temporally validating the model in the UK. A total of 128 360 patients who had a stroke with 10.8% 30-day in-hospital mortality and 13.1% all mortality were used for external validation in Sweden. In the SSNAP temporal validation set, the final XGBoost model achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.852 (95% CI 0.848 to 0.855)) and was well calibrated. The performances on the external validation in Riksstroke were as good and achieved AUC at 0.861 (95% CI 0.858 to 0.865) for in-hospital mortality. For Riksstroke, the models slightly overestimated the risk for in-hospital mortality, while they were better calibrated at the risk for all mortality. CONCLUSION: The risk prediction model was accurate and externally validated using high quality registry data. This is potentially suitable to be deployed as part of quality improvement analytics in stroke care to enable the fair comparison of stroke mortality outcomes across hospitals and health systems across countries.

Stroke in Sierra Leone. the stroke risk factors for people with HIV: A prospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection rates are relatively low in Sierra Leone and in West Africa but the contribution of HIV to the risk factors for stroke and outcomes is unknown. In this study, we examined stroke types, presentation, risk factors and outcome in HIV stroke patients compared with controls. METHODS: We used data from the Stroke in Sierra Leone Study at 2 tertiary hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. A case control design was used to compare stroke type, presentation, risk factors and outcome in sero-positive HIV patients with HIV negative stroke controls. Controls were matched for age and gender and a 1:4 ratio cases to controls was used to optimize power. Analysis was performed using the Pearson x2 for categorical variable, Paired-T test and Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of less than 0.05 was taken as the level of statistical significance. RESULTS: Of 511 (51.8%) stroke patients tested for HIV, 36 (7.1%) were positive. Univariate unmatched analysis showed a stroke mean age of 49 years in HIV-positive versus 58 years in HIV-negative population (p = <0.001). In the case-control group, ischaemic stroke is the major type reported in both populations, HIV-negative population: 77 (53.5%) versus HIV-positive: 25 (69.4%) (p = 0.084). Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor in both groups, HIV-positive: 23 (63.9%) versus HIV-negative: 409 (86.1%) (p = 0.001). Lower CD4+ count is associated in-hospital mortality (p = <0.001). CONCLUSION: These findings support the current call for timely management of stroke and HIV through integrated care.

Cohort profile: The South London Stroke Register - a population-based register measuring the incidence and outcomes of stroke.

PURPOSE: The South London Stroke Register (SLSR) is a population-based cohort study, which was established in 1995 to study the causes, incidence, and outcomes of stroke. The SLSR aims to estimate incidence, and acute and long term needs in a multi-ethnic inner-city population, with follow-up durations for some participants exceeding 20 years. PARTICIPANTS: The SLSR aims to recruit residents of a defined area within Lambeth and Southwark who experience a first stroke. More than 7700 people have been registered since inception, and >2750 people continue to be followed up. At the 2011 census, the source population was 357,308. FINDINGS TO DATE: The SLSR was instrumental in highlighting the inequalities in risk and outcomes in the UK, and demonstrating the dramatic improvements in care quality and outcomes in recent decades. Data from the SLSR informed the UK National Audit Office in its 2005 report criticising the poor state of stroke care in England. For people living in the SLSR area the likelihood of being treated in a stroke unit increased from 19% in 1995-7 to 75% in 2007-9. The SLSR has investigated health inequalities in stroke incidence and outcome. SLSR analyses have demonstrated that lower socioeconomic status was associated with poorer outcome, and that Black people and younger people have not experienced the same improvements in stroke incidence as other groups. FUTURE PLANS: As part of an NIHR Programme Grant for Applied Research, from April 2022 the SLSR has expanded to recruit ICD-11 defined stroke (including those with <24 h symptoms where there are neuroimaging findings), and have expanded the follow up interviews to collect more detailed information on quality of life, cognition, and care needs. Additional data items will be added over the Programme based on feedback from patients and other stakeholders.

Stroke in Sierra Leone: Case fatality rate and functional outcome after stroke in Freetown.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on long-term outcomes after stroke in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Current estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) in SSA are based on small sample sizes with varying study design and report heterogeneous results. AIMS: We report CFR and functional outcomes from a large, prospective, longitudinal cohort of stroke patients in Sierra Leone and describe factors associated with mortality and functional outcome. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal stroke register was established at both adult tertiary government hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. It recruited all patients ⩾ 18 years with stroke, using the World Health Organization definition, from May 2019 until October 2021. To reduce selection bias onto the register, all investigations were paid by the funder and outreach conducted to raise awareness of the study. Sociodemographic data, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), and Barthel Index (BI) were collected on all patients on admission, at 7 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years post stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality. A binomial logistic regression model reports odds ratio (OR) for functional independence at 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 986 patients with stroke were included, of which 857 (87%) received neuroimaging. Follow-up rate was 82% at 1 year, missing item data were <1% for most variables. Stroke cases were equally split by sex and mean age was 58.9 (SD: 14.0) years. About 625 (63%) were ischemic, 206 (21%) primary intracerebral hemorrhage, 25 (3%) subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 130 (13%) were of undetermined stroke type. Median NIHSS was 16 (9-24). CFR at 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years was 37%, 44%, 49%, and 53%, respectively. Factors associated with increased fatality at any timepoint were male sex (hazard ratio (HR): 1.28 (1.05-1.56)), previous stroke (HR: 1.34 (1.04-1.71)), atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.58(1.06-2.34)), subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR: 2.31 (1.40-3.81)), undetermined stroke type (HR: 3.18 (2.44-4.14)), and in-hospital complications (HR: 1.65 (1.36-1.98)). About 93% of patients were completely independent prior to their stroke, declining to 19% at 1 year after stroke. Functional improvement was most likely to occur between 7 and 90 days post stroke with 35% patients improving, and 13% improving between 90 days to 1 year. Increasing age (OR: 0.97 (0.95-0.99)), previous stroke (OR: 0.50 (0.26-0.98)), NIHSS (OR: 0.89 (0.86-0.91)), undetermined stroke type (OR: 0.18 (0.05-0.62)), and ⩾1 in-hospital complication (OR: 0.52 (0.34-0.80)) were associated with lower OR of functional independence at 1 year. Hypertension (OR: 1.98 (1.14-3.44)) and being the primary breadwinner of the household (OR: 1.59 (1.01-2.49)) were associated with functional independence at 1 year. CONCLUSION: Stroke affected younger people and resulted in high rates of fatality and functional impairment relative to global averages. Key clinical priorities for reducing fatality include preventing stroke-related complications through evidence-based stroke care, improved detection and management of atrial fibrillation, and increasing coverage of secondary prevention. Further research into care pathways and interventions to encourage care seeking for less severe strokes should be prioritized, including reducing the cost barrier for stroke investigations and care.

Prevalence and natural history of depression after stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Depression is the most frequent psychiatric condition after stroke and is associated with negative health outcomes. We aim to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence and natural history of depression after stroke. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies published up to 4 November 2022 on Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched. We included studies of adults with stroke, where depression was assessed at a prespecified time point. Studies excluding people with aphasia and history of depression are excluded. Critical Appraisal Skills Programme(CASP) cohort study tool was used to assess risk of bias. A total of 77 studies were included in the pooled estimates of the prevalence of poststroke depression (PSD). The overall prevalence of depression was 27% (95% CI 25 to 30). Prevalence of depression was 24% (95% CI 21 to 28) by clinical interview and 29% (95% CI 25 to 32) by rating scales. Twenty-four studies with more than one assessment time point reported the natural history of PSD. Among people who were depressed within 3 months of stroke, 53% (95% CI 47 to 59) experienced persistent depression, while 44% (95% CI 38 to 50) recovered. The incidence of later depression (3 to 12 months after stroke) was 9% (95% CI 7 to 12). The cumulative incidence during 1 year after stroke was 38% (95% CI 33 to 43), and the majority (71% (95% CI 65 to 76)) of depression had onset within 3 months after stroke. The main limitation of the present study is that excluding people in source studies with severe impairments may produce imprecise estimates of the prevalence of PSD. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that stroke survivors with early-onset depression (within 3 months after stroke) are at high risks for remaining depressed and make up two-thirds of the incident cases during 1 year after stroke. This highlights the need for ongoing clinical monitoring of patients depressed shortly after stroke. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022314146.

Real-world effectiveness of steroids in severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Randomised controlled trials have shown that steroids reduce the risk of dying in patients with severe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), whilst many real-world studies have failed to replicate this result. We aim to investigate real-world effectiveness of steroids in severe COVID-19. METHODS: Clinical, demographic, and viral genome data extracted from electronic patient record (EPR) was analysed from all SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive patients admitted with severe COVID-19, defined by hypoxia at presentation, between March 13th 2020 and May 27th 2021. Steroid treatment was measured by the number of prescription-days with dexamethasone, hydrocortisone, prednisolone or methylprednisolone. The association between steroid > 3 days treatment and disease outcome was explored using multivariable cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for confounders (including age, gender, ethnicity, co-morbidities and SARS-CoV-2 variant). The outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 1100 severe COVID-19 cases were identified having crude hospital mortality of 15.3%. 793/1100 (72.1%) individuals were treated with steroids and 513/1100 (46.6%) received steroid ≤ 3 days. From the multivariate model, steroid > 3 days was associated with decreased hazard of in-hospital mortality (HR: 0.47 (95% CI: 0.31-0.72)). CONCLUSION: The protective effect of steroid treatment for severe COVID-19 reported in randomised clinical trials was replicated in this retrospective study of a large real-world cohort.

The provision of person-centred care for care home residents with stroke: An ethnographic study.

Care home residents with stroke have higher levels of disability and poorer access to health services than those living in their own homes. We undertook observations and semi-structured interviews (n = 28 participants) with managers, staff, residents who had experienced a stroke and their relatives in four homes in London, England, in 2018/2019. Thematic analysis revealed that residents' needs regarding valued activity and stroke-specific care and rehabilitation were not always being met. This resulted from an interplay of factors: staff's lack of recognition of stroke and its effects; gaps in skills; time pressures; and the prioritisation of residents' safety. To improve residential care provision and residents' quality of life, care commissioners, regulators and providers may need to re-examine how care homes balance safety and limits on staff time against residents' valued activity, alongside improving access to specialist healthcare treatment and support.

Stroke Outcomes in Women: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on sex-related disparities in long-term outcomes after stroke. We estimated sex differences in various stroke long-term outcomes among survivors after stroke in a prospective 25-year follow-up study. METHODS: Individuals recruited to the South London Stroke Register, an ongoing multi-ethnic urban-based population stroke register, from 1995 onward were included in the analyses (n=6687). The outcomes were death, subsequent stroke, activity of daily living, instrumental activity of daily living, cognitive impairment, depression, anxiety, and health-related quality of life. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for mortality, stroke recurrence, and recurrence-free survival by sex and Cox proportional hazards model used to model sex differences up to 25 years. Generalized estimating equation were used to model sex differences in risk of self-reported stroke outcomes over 10 years poststroke outcomes, adjusting for age, preexisting activity of daily living, case-mix, stroke subtypes, and other potential confounding risk factors. RESULTS: There were 49% women (mean age, 72 years; SD, 15.6) and 51% men (mean age, 67 years; SD, 14.3) in 6687 participants. Compared with men, women had 9% (95% CI, 3%-15%) lower covariate-adjusted risk of death and 6% (0%-13%) lower risk of stroke recurrence or death. Generally, women had significantly poorer outcomes in activity of daily living and anxiety than men, and the sex differences persisted to up to 5 years after stroke. Women also had poorer health-related quality of life in physical (ß=-2.06 [95% CI, -3.01 to -1.10]) and mental domains (ß=-1.48 [95% CI, -2.44 to -0.52]). Although not significant, there was a suggestive trend for poorer outcomes in cognitive impairment and depression in women. No significant difference in stroke recurrence were found between men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Female patients with stroke tended to have better covariate-adjusted survival but poorer outcomes among survivors than male patients, with deficits persisting to up to 5 years poststroke.

The organization and impacts of clinical research delivery workforce redeployment during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative case study of one research-intensive acute hospital trust.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has tested healthcare and research systems around the world, forcing the large-scale reorganization of hospitals, research infrastructure and resources. The United Kingdom has been singled out for the speed and scale of its research response. The efficiency of the United Kingdom's research mobilization was in large part predicated on the pre-existing embeddedness of the clinical research system within the National Health Service (NHS), a public, free-at-point-of-delivery healthcare system. In this paper we discuss the redeployment of the clinical research workforce to support the pandemic clinical services, detailing the process of organizing this redeployment, as well as the impacts redeployment has had on both staff and research delivery at one research-intensive acute NHS trust in London. METHODS: A social science case study of one large research-active NHS trust drawing on data from an online questionnaire; participant observation of key research planning meetings; semi-structured interviews with staff involved in research; and document analysis of emails and official national and trust communications. RESULTS: We found that at our case-study hospital trust, the research workforce was a resource that was effectively redeployed as part of the pandemic response. Research delivery workers were redeployed to clinical roles, to COVID-related research and to work maintaining the research system during the redeployment itself. Redeployed research workers faced some difficulties with technology and communication, but many had a positive experience and saw the redeployment as a significant and valuable moment in their career. CONCLUSIONS: This study explicates the role of the research delivery workforce for the United Kingdom's COVID response. Redeployed research workers facilitated the emergency response by delivering significant amounts of patient care. The public also benefited from having a well-developed research infrastructure in place that was able to flexibly respond to a novel virus. Many research workers feel that the NHS should provide more support for this distinctive workforce.

Statin Therapy for Preventing Recurrent Stroke in Patients with Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials and Observational Cohort Studies.

INTRODUCTION: Statins are effective in preventing vascular disease and are widely recommended and used for the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. However, there is concern from trials that statins might increase the risk of hemorrhagic stroke, partially reducing their benefit. We sought to systematically review the latest evidence on this question. METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched to identify published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies (search date December 2020). Two independent reviewers carried out the eligibility assessment based on predefined inclusion criteria. We examined the outcomes of recurrent stroke (after ischemic stroke) of any type, and separately recurrent ischemic stroke and recurrent hemorrhagic stroke. RCTs and observational cohort studies were meta-analyzed separately. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to assess the effect of statin therapy. Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan 5.4 software. RESULTS: We retrieved 559 papers in searches, of which 11 RCTs and 12 observational cohort studies were included. Both RCTs and observational studies found that statins reduced the odds of stroke of any type in those with an initial ischemic stroke (11 RCTs: OR = 0.87, 95% CI [0.77,0.97]; p = 0.02; 12 cohort studies: OR = 0.80, 95% CI [0.66, 0.96]; p = 0.02). Both RCTs and observational studies found that recurrence of ischemic stroke was reduced by statins (6 RCTs: OR = 0.81, 95% CI [0.70, 0.93]; p = 0.002; 3 observational studies: OR = 0.67, 95% CI [0.61, 0.75]; p < 0.00001). Data from 7 RCTs and 8 cohort studies did not find a significant difference in hemorrhagic stroke but could not rule out a substantial increase or reduction (7 RCTs: OR = 1.15, 95% CI [0.62, 2.13]; p = 0.66; 8 cohort studies: OR = 0.93, 95% CI [0.71, 1.21]; p = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: In people who have experienced an ischemic stroke, statins reduce the risk of recurrent stroke of any type medicated through a reduction of ischemic stroke. We found no increase in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke.

Risk prediction of 30-day mortality after stroke using machine learning: a nationwide registry-based cohort study.

BACKGROUNDS: We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for 30-day stroke mortality for mortality risk stratification and as benchmarking models for quality improvement in stroke care. METHODS: Data from the UK Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program between 2013 to 2019 were used. Models were developed using XGBoost, Logistic Regression (LR), LR with elastic net with/without interaction terms using 80% randomly selected admissions from 2013 to 2018, validated on the 20% remaining admissions, and temporally validated on 2019 admissions. The models were developed with 30 variables. A reference model was developed using LR and 4 variables. Performances of all models was evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration, reclassification, Brier scores and Decision-curves. RESULTS: In total, 488,497 stroke patients with a 12.3% 30-day mortality rate were included in the analysis. In 2019 temporal validation set, XGBoost model obtained the lowest Brier score (0.069 (95% CI: 0.068-0.071)) and the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.895 (95% CI: 0.891-0.900)) which outperformed LR reference model by 0.04 AUC (p < 0.001) and LR with elastic net and interaction term model by 0.003 AUC (p < 0.001). All models were perfectly calibrated for low (< 5%) and moderate risk groups (5-15%) and ≈1% underestimation for high-risk groups (> 15%). The XGBoost model reclassified 1648 (8.1%) low-risk cases by the LR reference model as being moderate or high-risk and gained the most net benefit in decision curve analysis. CONCLUSIONS: All models with 30 variables are potentially useful as benchmarking models in stroke-care quality improvement with ML slightly outperforming others.

Incidence and Long-Term Survival of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background and Purpose: Recent epidemiological data indicate that the absolute number of hemorrhagic stroke cases increased by 47% between 1990 and 2010 and continued to cause high rates of death and disability. The last systematic review and meta-analysis of incidence and long-term survival of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) were published 11 and 7 years ago, respectively, and lacked comparison between different income groups, therefore, a more up to date analysis is needed. We aim to investigate the ICH incidence and long-term survival data in countries of different income groups. Materials Methods: We systematically searched Ovid Medline for population-based longitudinal studies of first-ever spontaneous ICH published from January 2000 to December 2020. We performed meta-analyses on the incidence and survival rate in countries of 4 different income groups with random-effects models (severe inconsistency). The I 2 was used to measure the heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was further investigated by conducting the meta-regression on the study mid-year. Time trends of the survival rate were assessed by weighted linear regression. Results: We identified 84 eligible papers, including 68 publications reporting incidence and 24 publications on the survival rate. The pooled incidence of ICH per 100,000 per person-years was 26.47 (95% CI: 21.84-32.07) worldwide, 25.9 (95% CI: 22.63-29.63) in high-income countries (HIC), 28.45 (95% CI: 15.90-50.88) in upper-middle-income countries, and 31.73 (95% CI: 18.41-54.7) in lower-middle-income countries. The 1-year pooled survival rate was from 50% (95% CI: 47-54%; n = 4,380) worldwide to 50% (95% CI: 47-54%) in HIC, and 46% (95% CI: 38-55%) in upper-middle income countries. The 5-year pooled survival rate was 41% (95% CI: 35-48%; n = 864) worldwide, 41% (95% CI: 32-50%) in high-income and upper-middle countries. No publications were found reporting the long-term survival in lower-middle-income and low-income countries. No time trends in incidence or survival were found by meta-regression. Conclusion: The pooled ICH incidence was highest in lower-middle-income countries. About half of ICH patients survived 1 year, and about two-fifths survived 5 years. Reliable population-based studies estimating the ICH incidence and long-term survival in low-income and low-middle-income countries are needed to help prevention of ICH. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=170140, PROSPERO CRD42020170140.