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BACKGROUND: Statins have multiple benefits in patients with metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). AIM: To explore the effects of statins on the long-term risk of all-cause mortality, liver-related clinical events (LREs) and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD. METHODS: This cohort study collected data on patients with MASLD undergoing at least two vibration-controlled transient elastography examinations at 16 tertiary referral centres. Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the association between statin usage and long-term risk of all-cause mortality and LREs stratified by compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD): baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) of ≥10 kPa. Liver stiffness progression was defined as an LSM increase of ≥20% for cACLD and from <10 kPa to ≥10 or LSM for non-cACLD. Liver stiffness regression was defined as LSM reduction from ≥10 kPa to <10 or LSM decrease of ≥20% for cACLD. RESULTS: We followed up 7988 patients with baseline LSM 5.9 kPa (IQR 4.6-8.2) for a median of 4.6 years. At baseline, 40.5% of patients used statins, and cACLD was present in 17%. Statin usage was significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR=0.233; 95% CI 0.127 to 0.426) and LREs (adjusted HR=0.380; 95% CI 0.268 to 0.539). Statin usage was also associated with lower liver stiffness progression rates in cACLD (HR=0.542; 95% CI 0.389 to 0.755) and non-cACLD (adjusted HR=0.450; 95% CI 0.342 to 0.592), but not with liver stiffness regression (adjusted HR=0.914; 95% CI 0.778 to 1.074). CONCLUSIONS: Statin usage was associated with a relatively lower long-term risk of all-cause mortality, LREs and liver stiffness progression in patients with MASLD.
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BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following surgical resection remains a significant clinical challenge, necessitating reliable predictive models to guide personalised interventions. In this study, we sought to harness the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to develop a robust predictive model for HCC recurrence using comprehensive clinical datasets. METHODS: Leveraging data from 958 patients across multiple centres in Australia and Hong Kong, we employed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) as the optimal classifier for model generation. RESULTS: Through rigorous internal cross-validation, including a cohort from the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), our AI model successfully identified specific pre-surgical risk factors associated with HCC recurrence. These factors encompassed hepatic synthetic function, liver disease aetiology, ethnicity and modifiable metabolic risk factors, collectively contributing to the predictive synergy of our model. Notably, our model exhibited high accuracy during cross-validation (.857 ± .023) and testing on the CUHK cohort (.835), with a notable degree of confidence in predicting HCC recurrence within accurately classified patient cohorts. To facilitate clinical application, we developed an online AI digital tool capable of real-time prediction of HCC recurrence risk, demonstrating acceptable accuracy at the individual patient level. CONCLUSION: Our findings underscore the potential of AI-driven predictive models in facilitating personalised risk stratification and targeted interventions to mitigate HCC recurrence by identifying modifiable risk factors unique to each patient. This model aims to aid clinicians in devising strategies to disrupt the underlying carcinogenic network driving recurrence.
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In managing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, which affects over 30% of the general population, effective noninvasive biomarkers for assessing disease severity, monitoring disease progression, predicting the development of liver-related complications, and assessing treatment response are crucial. The advantage of simple fibrosis scores lies in their widespread accessibility through routinely performed blood tests and extensive validation in different clinical settings. They have shown reasonable accuracy in diagnosing advanced fibrosis and good performance in excluding the majority of patients with a low risk of liver-related complications. Among patients with elevated serum fibrosis scores, a more specific fibrosis and imaging biomarker has proved useful to accurately identify patients at risk of liver-related complications. Among specific fibrosis blood biomarkers, enhanced liver fibrosis is the most widely utilized and has been approved in the United States as a prognostic biomarker. For imaging biomarkers, the availability of vibration-controlled transient elastography has been largely improved over the past years, enabling the use of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for accurate assessment of significant and advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis. Combining LSM with other routinely available blood tests enhances the ability to diagnose at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis; and predict liver-related complications, some reaching an accuracy comparable to that of liver biopsy. Magnetic resonance imaging-based modalities provide the most accurate quantification of liver fibrosis, though the current utilization is limited to research settings. Expanding their future use in clinical practice depends on factors such as cost and facility availability.
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Liver fibrosis is the common pathway from various chronic liver diseases and its progression leads to cirrhosis which carries a significant risk for the development of portal hypertension-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma. It is crucial to identify and halt the worsening of liver fibrosis given its important prognostic implication. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing the degree of liver fibrosis but is limited due to its invasiveness and impracticality for serial monitoring. Many noninvasive tests have been developed over the years trying to assess liver fibrosis in a practical and accurate way. The tests are mainly laboratory- or imaging-based, or in combination. Laboratory-based tests can be derived from simply routine blood tests to patented laboratory parameters. Imaging modalities include ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography, in which vibration-controlled transient elastography is the most widely validated and adopted whereas magnetic resonance elastography has been proven the most accurate liver fibrosis assessment tool. Nonetheless, noninvasive tests do not always apply to all liver diseases, nor does a common cut-off value of a test mean the same degree of liver fibrosis in different scenarios. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic and prognostic performance, as well as the confounders and limitations, of different noninvasive tests on liver fibrosis assessment in various liver diseases.
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Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. Results: A total of 16â¯603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10â¯920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas , Fígado Gorduroso , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Adolescente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Técnicas de Imagem por Elasticidade/métodos , Estudos de Coortes , Vibração , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/complicações , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/patologia , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal , Fígado/diagnóstico por imagem , Fígado/patologia , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico por imagem , Fígado Gorduroso/complicações , Fígado Gorduroso/patologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Antígenos de Superfície da Hepatite B , Hepatite B Crônica , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Humanos , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Masculino , Hepatite B Crônica/complicações , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/etiologia , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Antígenos de Superfície da Hepatite B/sangue , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Adulto , Idoso , Cirrose Hepática/virologia , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco , Contagem de Plaquetas , Fatores EtáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.
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Antivirais , Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Antígenos E da Hepatite B , Hepatite B Crônica , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Carga Viral , Humanos , Hepatite B Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite B Crônica/complicações , Hepatite B Crônica/virologia , Masculino , Neoplasias Hepáticas/virologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/etiologia , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Antígenos E da Hepatite B/sangue , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/virologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiologia , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/etiologia , Adulto , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Vírus da Hepatite B , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Tenofovir/uso terapêutico , Guanina/análogos & derivados , Guanina/uso terapêutico , DNA Viral/sangue , Incidência , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). N-terminal propeptide of collagen type 3 (PRO-C3) is a biomarker of advanced fibrosis in MAFLD and PRO-C3 may be involved in renal fibrosis. We aimed to use PRO-C3 measurements to generate a new algorithmic score to test the prediction of MAFLD with chronic kidney disease (MAFLD-CKD). METHODS: A derivation and independent validation cohort of 750 and 129 Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed MAFLD were included. Serum PRO-C3 concentration was measured and regression analyses were performed to examine associations with MAFLD-CKD. A derivative algorithm for MAFLD-CKD risk prediction was evaluated with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The study included two Asian cohorts (n = 180 with MAFLD-CKD; mean-eGFR: 94.93 mL/min/1.73 m2; median-urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio: 6.58 mg/mmol). PRO-C3 was associated with the severity of MAFLD-CKD and independently associated with MAFLD-CKD (adjusted odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.23, p < .001). A new non-invasive score (termed PERIOD) including PRO-C3 efficiently predicted MAFLD-CKD (AUROC = .842, 95% CI: .805-.875). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values were 80.2%, 85.1% and 88.4%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the PERIOD score had good diagnostic performance (AUROC = .807, 95% CI: .691-.893) with similar results in all patient subgroups. In the MAFLD-CKD subgroup, the accuracy for identifying advanced fibrosis was further improved by combining the PRO-C3-based ADAPT with the Agile 3+ scores (AUROC = .90, 95% CI: .836-.964). CONCLUSIONS: The PERIOD score is helpful for accurately predicting the risk of MAFLD-CKD. PRO-C3 can also be used to assess liver fibrosis in people with MAFLD-CKD.
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Complemento C3 , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Humanos , Complemento C3/análise , Cirrose Hepática , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/diagnóstico , Fatores de Risco , Povo AsiáticoRESUMO
We thank Allaire et al [...].
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BACKGROUND: The precise estimation of cases with significant fibrosis (SF) is an unmet goal in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD/MASLD). AIMS: We evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) and non-patented scores for ruling out SF among NAFLD/MASLD patients. METHODS: Twenty-one ML models were trained (N = 1153), tested (N = 283), and validated (N = 220) on clinical and biochemical parameters of histologically-proven NAFLD/MASLD patients (N = 1656) collected across 14 centres in 8 Asian countries. Their performance for detecting histological-SF (≥F2fibrosis) were evaluated with APRI, FIB4, NFS, BARD, and SAFE (NPV/F1-score as model-selection criteria). RESULTS: Patients aged 47 years (median), 54.6% males, 73.7% with metabolic syndrome, and 32.9% with histological-SF were included in the study. Patients with SFvs.no-SF had higher age, aminotransferases, fasting plasma glucose, metabolic syndrome, uncontrolled diabetes, and NAFLD activity score (p < 0.001, each). ML models showed 7%-12% better discrimination than FIB-4 to detect SF. Optimised random forest (RF) yielded best NPV/F1 in overall set (0.947/0.754), test set (0.798/0.588) and validation set (0.852/0.559), as compared to FIB4 in overall set (0.744/0.499), test set (0.722/0.456), and validation set (0.806/0.507). Compared to FIB-4, RF could pick 10 times more patients with SF, reduce unnecessary referrals by 28%, and prevent missed referrals by 78%. Age, AST, ALT fasting plasma glucose, and platelet count were top features determining the SF. Sequential use of SAFE < 140 and FIB4 < 1.2 (when SAFE > 140) was next best in ruling out SF (NPV of 0.757, 0.724 and 0.827 in overall, test and validation set). CONCLUSIONS: ML with clinical, anthropometric data and simple blood investigations perform better than FIB-4 for ruling out SF in biopsy-proven Asian NAFLD/MASLD patients.
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Síndrome Metabólica , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/diagnóstico , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/epidemiologia , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Síndrome Metabólica/complicações , Glicemia , Biópsia , Fibrose , Ásia/epidemiologia , Obesidade/complicações , Aspartato Aminotransferases , Fígado/patologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a reduction in bone mineral density and an increase in bone metabolism biomarkers. However, data on clinical bone fractures remain limited. We evaluated the impact of TDF compared to entecavir on the risk of fracture in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: Patients with CHB aged ≥60 years receiving entecavir or TDF between January 2008 and December 2022 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of incident fracture in entecavir- and TDF-treated patients before and after month 24 were compared after propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 41,531 patients with CHB (mean age 69.8±7.8 years, 61.6% male) receiving entecavir (n = 39,897 [96.1%]) and TDF (n = 1,634 [3.9%]) were analysed. At a median follow-up of 25.3 (9.1-58.5) months, 1,733 (4.2%) patients developed incident fracture. Patients with incident fracture were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and a history of fracture. Compared with propensity score-matched entecavir-treated patients, the risk of incident fracture in TDF-treated patients was comparable in the first 24 months (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.99, 95% CI 0.56-1.73, p = 0.960) but increased after month 24 (weighted sHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93, p = 0.019). The 24-, 60-, and 96-month cumulative incidences (95% CI) of fracture in TDF-treated and entecavir-treated patients were 2.3% (1.6%-3.4%) vs. 2.6% (1.9%-3.5%), 6.4% (5.0%-8.2%) vs. 4.7% (3.8%-6.0%), and 10.2% (8.3%-12.6%) vs. 6.8% (5.4%-8.5%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of fracture increased with TDF treatment for ≥24 months in elderly patients with CHB. Selection of nucleos(t)ide analogues should be individualised based on age and comorbidities. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Previous literature suggested that the use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a decrease in bone mineral density. However, data on the impact of TDF on long-term incident clinical fracture remains scarce. In this real-world territory-wide study of 41,531 treated patients with chronic hepatitis B in Hong Kong, patients who received TDF were at a higher risk of fracture after 2 years of treatment than those who received entecavir. Given the ageing population of patients with chronic hepatitis B and the rising prevalence of comorbidities, our findings support the current treatment guidelines that recommend selecting antiviral treatment based on age and comorbidities.
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Fraturas Ósseas , Hepatite B Crônica , Idoso , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Tenofovir/efeitos adversos , Hepatite B Crônica/complicações , Hepatite B Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Antivirais/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento , Fraturas Ósseas/induzido quimicamente , Fraturas Ósseas/epidemiologia , Fraturas Ósseas/complicaçõesRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: aMAP score, as a hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, is proven to be associated with the degree of chronic hepatitis B-related liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the ability of aMAP score for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD)-related fibrosis diagnosis and establish a machine-learning (ML) model to improve the diagnostic performance. METHODS: A total of 946 biopsy-proved MASLD patients from China and the United States were included in the analysis. The aMAP score, demographic/clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were included in seven ML algorithms to build fibrosis diagnostic models in the training set (N = 703). The performance of ML models was evaluated in the external validation set (N = 125). RESULTS: The AUROCs of aMAP versus fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio (APRI) in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were (0.850 vs. 0.857 [P = 0.734], 0.735 [P = 0.001]) and (0.759 vs. 0.795 [P = 0.027], 0.709 [P = 0.049]). When using dual cut-off values, aMAP had a smaller uncertainty area and higher accuracy (26.9%, 86.6%) than FIB-4 (37.3%, 85.0%) and APRI (59.0%, 77.3%) in cirrhosis diagnosis. The seven ML models performed satisfactorily in most cases. In the validation set, the ML model comprising LSM and 5 indices (including age, sex, platelets, albumin and total bilirubin used in aMAP calculator), built by logistic regression algorithm (called LSM-plus model), exhibited excellent performance. In cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis detection, the LSM-plus model had higher accuracy (96.8%, 91.2%) than LSM alone (86.4%, 67.2%) and Agile score (76.0%, 83.2%), respectively. Additionally, the LSM-plus model also displayed high specificity (cirrhosis: 98.3%; advanced fibrosis: 92.6%) with satisfactory AUROC (0.932, 0.875, respectively) and sensitivity (88.9%, 82.4%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The aMAP score is capable of diagnosing MASLD-related fibrosis. The LSM-plus model could accurately identify MASLD-related cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis.