Once-daily dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in infants and children living with HIV from age 4 weeks: results from the below 14 kg cohort in the randomised ODYSSEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Young children living with HIV have few treatment options. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children weighing between 3 kg and less than 14 kg. METHODS: ODYSSEY is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial (10% margin) comparing dolutegravir-based ART with standard of care and comprises two cohorts (children weighing ≥14 kg and <14 kg). Children weighing less than 14 kg starting first-line or second-line ART were enrolled in seven HIV treatment centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Randomisation, which was computer generated by the trial statistician, was stratified by first-line or second-line ART and three weight bands. Dispersible 5 mg dolutegravir was dosed according to WHO weight bands. The primary outcome was the Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion of children with virological or clinical failure by 96 weeks, defined as: confirmed viral load of at least 400 copies per mL after week 36; absence of virological suppression by 24 weeks followed by a switch to second-line or third-line ART; all-cause death; or a new or recurrent WHO stage 4 or severe WHO stage 3 event. The primary outcome was assessed by intention to treat in all randomly assigned participants. A primary Bayesian analysis of the difference in the proportion of children meeting the primary outcome between treatment groups incorporated evidence from the higher weight cohort (≥14 kg) in a prior distribution. A frequentist analysis was also done of the lower weight cohort (<14 kg) alone. Safety analyses are presented for all randomly assigned children in this study (<14 kg cohort). ODYSSEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02259127. FINDINGS: Between July 5, 2018, and Aug 26, 2019, 85 children weighing less than 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir (n=42) or standard of care (n=43; 32 [74%] receiving protease inhibitor-based ART). Median age was 1·4 years (IQR 0·6-2·0) and median weight 8·1 kg (5·4-10·0). 72 (85%) children started first-line ART and 13 (15%) started second-line ART. Median follow-up was 124 weeks (112-137). By 96 weeks, treatment failure occurred in 12 children in the dolutegravir group (Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion 31%) versus 21 (48%) in the standard-of-care group. The Bayesian estimated difference in treatment failure (dolutegravir minus standard of care) was -10% (95% CI -19% to -2%; p=0·020), demonstrating superiority of dolutegravir. The frequentist estimated difference was -18% (-36% to 2%; p=0·057). 15 serious adverse events were reported in 11 (26%) children in the dolutegravir group, including two deaths, and 19 were reported in 11 (26%) children in the standard-of-care group, including four deaths (hazard ratio [HR] 1·08 [95% CI 0·47-2·49]; p=0·86). 36 adverse events of grade 3 or higher were reported in 19 (45%) children in the dolutegravir group, versus 34 events in 21 (49%) children in the standard-of-care group (HR 0·93 [0·50-1·74]; p=0·83). No events were considered related to dolutegravir. INTERPRETATION: Dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard of care (mainly protease inhibitor-based) with a lower risk of treatment failure in infants and young children, providing support for global dispersible dolutegravir roll-out for younger children and allowing alignment of adult and paediatric treatment. FUNDING: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, UK Medical Research Council.

Dolutegravir as First- or Second-Line Treatment for HIV-1 Infection in Children.

BACKGROUND: Children with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have limited options for effective antiretroviral treatment (ART). METHODS: We conducted an open-label, randomized, noninferiority trial comparing three-drug ART based on the HIV integrase inhibitor dolutegravir with standard care (non-dolutegravir-based ART) in children and adolescents starting first- or second-line ART. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with virologic or clinical treatment failure by 96 weeks, as estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Safety was assessed. RESULTS: From September 2016 through June 2018, a total of 707 children and adolescents who weighed at least 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir-based ART (350 participants) or standard care (357). The median age was 12.2 years (range, 2.9 to 18.0), the median weight was 30.7 kg (range, 14.0 to 85.0), and 49% of the participants were girls. By design, 311 participants (44%) started first-line ART (with 92% of those in the standard-care group receiving efavirenz-based ART), and 396 (56%) started second-line ART (with 98% of those in the standard-care group receiving boosted protease inhibitor-based ART). The median follow-up was 142 weeks. By 96 weeks, 47 participants in the dolutegravir group and 75 in the standard-care group had treatment failure (estimated probability, 0.14 vs. 0.22; difference, -0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.14 to -0.03; P = 0.004). Treatment effects were similar with first- and second-line therapies (P = 0.16 for heterogeneity). A total of 35 participants in the dolutegravir group and 40 in the standard-care group had at least one serious adverse event (P = 0.53), and 73 and 86, respectively, had at least one adverse event of grade 3 or higher (P = 0.24). At least one ART-modifying adverse event occurred in 5 participants in the dolutegravir group and in 17 in the standard-care group (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving children and adolescents with HIV-1 infection who were starting first- or second-line treatment, dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard care. (Funded by ViiV Healthcare; ODYSSEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02259127; EUDRACT number, 2014-002632-14; and ISRCTN number, ISRCTN91737921.).

Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions.

OBJECTIVE: To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London's individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic. SETTING: Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. POPULATION: About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures. RESULTS: The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000. CONCLUSIONS: It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.