Prognostic model for predicting recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with high systemic immune-inflammation index based on machine learning in a multicenter study.

Introduction: This study aims to use machine learning to conduct in-depth analysis of key factors affecting the recurrence of HCC patients with high preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) levels after receiving ablation treatment, and based on this, construct a nomogram model for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients. Methods: This study included clinical data of 505 HCC patients who underwent ablation therapy at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 2014 to January 2020, and accepted 65 HCC patients with high SII levels from Beijing Ditan Hospital as an external validation cohort. 505 patients from Beijing You'an Hospital were divided into low SII and high SII groups based on the optimal cutoff value of SII scores. The high SII group was further randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random survival forest (RSF), and multivariate Cox regression analysis, were used to explore the factors affecting the post-ablation RFS of HCC patients. Based on the identified key factors, a nomogram model were developed to predict RFS in HCC patients, and their performance were evaluated using the concordance index (C index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The optimal cutoff value for nomogram scores was used to divide patients into low- and high-risk groups, and the effectiveness of the model in risk stratification was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves. Results: This study confirmed that age, BCLC stage, tumor number, and GGT level were independent risk factors affecting RFS in HCC patients. Based on the selected risk factors, an RFS nomogram was successfully constructed. The C-index, ROC curve, calibration curve, and DCA curve each demonstrated the discrimination, accuracy, and decision-making utility of the nomogram, indicating that it has good predictive performance. KM curve revealed the nomogram could significantly differentiate patient populations with different recurrence risk. Conclusion: We developed a reliable nomogram that can accurately predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS for HCC patients with high SII levels following ablation therapy.

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Low Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in TACE Combined with Ablation: A Random Forest Cox Predictive Model.

Purpose: The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and recurrence in patients who underwent TACE sequential ablation. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict low levels of ALBI patients' recurrence. Patients and Methods: A total of 880 patients undergoing TACE combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled, including 415 patients with L-ALBI (≤-2.6) and 465 patients with high levels (>-2.6) of ALBI (H-ALBI). L-ALBI patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=289) and validation cohort (N=126). Multivariate Cox regression followed by random survival forest was carried out to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. An examination of nomogram accuracy was performed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. According to the nomogram, the patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were applied to compare the difference in recurrence-free survival (RFS) among the three groups. Results: The median RFS in L-ALBI patients was significantly longer than the H-ALBI patients (40.8m vs 20.1m, HR:1.71, 95% CI:1.44-2.04, P<0.0001). The nomogram was composed of five variables, such as age, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, globulin, gamma-glutamyl transferase to lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and international normalized ratio (INR). The C-index (0.722 and 0.731) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.725, 0.803, 0.870, and 0.764, 0.816, 0.798) of the training and validation cohorts proved the good predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated good consistency and good clinical utility. There were significant differences in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P<0.0001). Conclusion: L-ALBI Patients who underwent TACE combined ablation had better recurrence-free survival than patients with H-ALBI. The nomogram developed and validated in our study had good predictive ability in recurrence for L-ALBI patients.

Incorporating Inflammatory Markers and Clinical Indicators into a Predictive Model of Single Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Primary Locoregional Treatments.

Purpose: We explored the role of tumor size and number in the prognosis of HCC patients who underwent ablation and created a nomogram based on machine learning to predict the recurrence. Patients and Methods: A total of 990 HCC patients who underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were prospectively enrolled, including 478 patients with single small HCC (S-S), 209 patients with single large (≥30mm) HCC (S-L), 182 patients with multiple small HCC (M-S), and 121 patients with multiple large HCC (M-L). S-S patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=334) and the validation cohort (N=144). Lasso-Cox regression analysis was carried out to identify independent risk factors, which were used to construct a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Patients in the training and validation cohorts were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups based on the risk scores of the nomogram. Results: The median recurrence-free survival (mRFS) in S-S patients was significantly longer than the S-L, M-S, and S-L patients (P<0.0001). The content of the nomogram includes age, monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR), gamma-glutamyl transferase-to-lymphocyte (GLR), International normalized ratio (INR), and Erythrocyte (RBC). The C-index (0.704 and 0.71) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.726, 0.800, 0.780, and 0.752, 0.761, 0.760) of the training and validation cohorts proved the excellent predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves the DCA curves showed that the nomogram had good consistency and clinical utility. There were apparent variances in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P<0.0001). Conclusion: S-S patients who underwent ablation had the best prognosis. The nomogram developed and validated in the study had good predictive ability for S-S patients.

Machine learning-based model for predicting tumor recurrence after interventional therapy in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with low preoperative platelet-albumin-bilirubin score.

Introduction: This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with low preoperative platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) scores after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with local ablation treatment. Methods: We gathered clinical data from 632 HBV-related HCC patients who received the combination treatment at Beijing You'an Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, from January 2014 to January 2020. The patients were divided into two groups based on their PALBI scores: low PALBI group (n=247) and high PALBI group (n=385). The low PALBI group was then divided into two cohorts: training cohort (n=172) and validation cohort (n=75). We utilized eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random survival forest (RSF), and multivariate Cox analysis to pinpoint the risk factors for RFS. Then, we developed a nomogram based on the screened factors and assessed its risk stratification capabilities and predictive performance. Results: The study finally identified age, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and prothrombin time activity (PTA) as key predictors. The three variables were included to develop the nomogram for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS of HCC patients. We confirmed the nomogram's ability to effectively discern high and low risk patients, as evidenced by Kaplan-Meier curves. We further corroborated the excellent discrimination, consistency, and clinical utility of the nomogram through assessments using the C-index, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Conclusion: Our study successfully constructed a robust nomogram, effectively predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS for HBV-related HCC patients with low preoperative PALBI scores after TACE combined with local ablation therapy.

Nomogram for predicting post-therapy recurrence in BCLC A/B hepatocellular carcinoma with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis.

Introduction: This study conducts a retrospective analysis on patients with BCLC stage A/B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accompanied by Child-Pugh B cirrhosis, who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in combination with local ablation therapy. Our goal was to uncover risk factors contributing to post-treatment recurrence and to develop and validate an innovative 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence free survival (RFS) nomogram. Methods: Data from 255 BCLC A/B HCC patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated at Beijing You'an Hospital (January 2014 - January 2020) were analyzed using random survival forest (RSF), LASSO regression, and multivariate Cox regression to identify independent risk factors for RFS. The prognostic nomogram was then constructed and validated, categorizing patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk groups, with RFS assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The nomogram, integrating the albumin/globulin ratio, gender, tumor number, and size, showcased robust predictive performance. Harrell's concordance index (C-index) values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.744 (95% CI: 0.703-0.785) and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.644-0.804), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) values for 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS in the two cohorts were also promising. Calibration curves highlighted the nomogram's reliability and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed its practical clinical benefits. Through meticulous patient stratification, we also revealed the nomogram's efficacy in distinguishing varying recurrence risks. Conclusion: This study advances recurrence prediction in BCLC A/B HCC patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis following TACE combined with ablation. The established nomogram accurately predicts 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS, facilitating timely identification of high-risk populations.

GALAD score as a prognostic model for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after local ablation.

BACKGROUND: Currently, the high recurrence rate still forms severe challenges in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. The GALAD score, including age, gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) was developed as a diagnostic model. However, evidence is still lacking to confirm the capability of the GALAD score to predict the recurrence of HCC. METHODS: This study included 390 HCC patients after local ablation at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022. Firstly, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the predictive capability of the GALAD score. Then, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve and log-rank test were used to compare the prognosis between two groups classified by GALAD score. Finally, a nomogram for high-risk patients was established by Lasso-Cox regression. It was assessed by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The ROC curve (AUC: 0.749) and KM curve showed the GALAD score had good predictive ability and could clearly stratify patients into two groups through the risk of recurrence. Prognostic factors selected by Lasso-Cox regression contained tumor number, tumor size, and globulin. The nomogram for high-risk patients showed reliable discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. CONCLUSION: This research displayed that the GALAD score is an effective model for predicting the recurrence of HCC. Meanwhile, we found the poor prognosis of the high-risk group and created a nomogram for these patients.

Radiofrequency ablation versus microwave ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma with cirrhosis: a propensity score analysis.

Background: Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and microwave ablation (MWA) are the most frequently used percutaneous ablation techniques for the treatment of liver cancer. The aim of our study was to identify the ablation method that had a better long-term prognosis for patients with cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: This retrospective study consisted of HCC patients with cirrhosis who underwent RFA and MWA between January 2014 to December 2021 at Beijing You'an Hospital. Patients were divided into two groups according to the therapeutic approaches: the RFA group and the MWA group. The prognosis was compared before and after 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM). Results: A total of 800 HCC patients with cirrhosis who received interventional treatment from January 2014 to December 2021 were prospectively enrolled. After PSM, there were 268 patients in each of the RFA and MWA groups. The statistically significant differences in recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) between RFA and MWA groups can be observed, both before and after PSM. Besides, 1-, 3-year RFS, and 5-year OS rates were higher in those the RFA group than in the MWA group. Age, tumor size, gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) were independent risk factors for RFS. Child-Pugh, lymphocyte (Lym), GGT, and treatment modality were independent risk factors for OS. Conclusions: For patients with HCC associated with cirrhosis, RFA can provide a better prognosis than MWA, with lower recurrence and mortality rate.

The Effect of Low HBV-DNA Viral Load on Recurrence in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Underwent Primary Locoregional Treatment and the Development of a Nomogram Prediction Model.

(1) Background: HBV-DNA is an essential clinical indicator of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic implication of a low load of HBV-DNA in HCC patients who underwent local treatment. Additionally, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the recurrence of patients with low (20-100 IU/mL) viral loads (L-VL). (2) Methods: A total of 475 HBV-HCC patients were enrolled, including 403 L-VL patients and 72 patients with very low (<20 IU/mL) viral loads (VL-VL). L-VL HCC patients were randomly divided into a training set (N = 282) and a validation set (N = 121) at a ratio of 7:3. Utilizing the Lasso-Cox regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors for constructing a nomogram. (3) Results: L-VL patients had significantly shorter RFS than VL-VL patients (38.2 m vs. 23.4 m, p = 0.024). The content of the nomogram included gender, BCLC stage, Glob, and MLR. The C-index (0.682 vs. 0.609); 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.729, 0.784, and 0.783, vs. 0.631, 0.634, the 0.665); calibration curves; and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves of the training and validation cohorts proved the excellent predictive performance of the nomogram. There was a statistically significant difference in RFS between the low-, immediate-, and high-risk groups both in the training and validation cohorts (p < 0.001); (4) Conclusions: Patients with L-VL had a worse prognosis. The nomogram developed and validated in this study has the advantage of predicting patients with L-VL.

Construction and validation of a machine learning-based nomogram to predict the prognosis of HBV associated hepatocellular carcinoma patients with high levels of hepatitis B surface antigen in primary local treatment: a multicenter study.

Background: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance is associated with improved long-term outcomes and reduced risk of complications. The aim of our study was to identify the effects of levels of HBsAg in HCC patients undergoing TACE and sequential ablation. In addition, we created a nomogram to predict the prognosis of HCC patients with high levels of HBsAg (≥1000U/L) after local treatment. Method: This study retrospectively evaluated 1008 HBV-HCC patients who underwent TACE combined with ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital and Beijing Ditan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021, including 334 patients with low HBsAg levels and 674 patients with high HBsAg levels. The high HBsAg group was divided into the training cohort (N=385), internal validation cohort (N=168), and external validation cohort (N=121). The clinical and pathological features of patients were collected, and independent risk factors were identified using Lasso-Cox regression analysis for developing a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves in the training and validation cohorts. Patients were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the risk scores of the nomogram. Result: After PSM, mRFS was 28.4 months (22.1-34.7 months) and 21.9 months (18.5-25.4 months) in the low HBsAg level and high HBsAg level groups (P<0.001). The content of the nomogram includes age, BCLC stage, tumor size, globulin, GGT, and bile acids. The C-index (0.682, 0.666, and 0.740) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs of the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts proved good discrimination of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves suggested accuracy and net clinical benefit rates. The nomogram enabled to classification of patients with high HBsAg levels into low-risk and high-risk groups according to the risk of recurrence. There was a statistically significant difference in RFS between the two groups in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts (P<0.001). Conclusion: High levels of HBsAg were associated with tumor progression. The nomogram developed and validated in the study had good predictive ability for patients with high HBsAg levels.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with dynamic changes in AFP undergoing locoregional treatments.

Background: Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is an important clinical indicator for screening, diagnosis, and prognosis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our team's previous study showed that patients with negative AFP at baseline and positive AFP at relapse had a worse prognosis (N-P). Therefore, the aim of our study was to develop and validate a nomogram for this group of patients. Methods: A total of 513 patients with HCC who received locoregional treatments at Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, from January 2012 to December 2019 were prospectively enrolled. Patients admitted from 2012 to 2015 were assigned to the training cohort (n = 335), while 2016 to 2019 were in the validation cohort (n =183). The clinical and pathological features of patients were collected, and independent risk factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis as a basis for developing a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves in the training and validation cohorts. Results: The content of the nomogram includes gender, tumor number, tumor size, lymphocyte, direct bilirubin (DBIL), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and prealbumin. The C-index (0.717 and 0.752) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.721, 0.825, 0.845, and 0.740, 0.868, 0.837) of the training and validation cohorts proved the good predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves suggested accuracy and net clinical benefit rates. The nomogram enabled to classify of patients with dynamic changes in AFP into three groups according to the risk of recurrence: low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. There was a statistically significant difference in RFS between the three groups in the training and validation cohorts (P<0.001). Conclusion: The nomogram developed and validated in this study had good predictive power for patients with dynamic changes in AFP.

A comprehensive multi-omics analysis reveals molecular features associated with cancer via RNA cross-talks in the Notch signaling pathway.

The Notch signaling has an important role in multiple cellular processes and is related to carcinogenic process. To understand the potential molecular features of the crucial Notch pathway, a comprehensive multi-omics analysis is performed to explore its contributions in cancer, mainly including analysis of somatic mutation landscape, pan-cancer expression, ncRNA regulation and potential prognostic power. The screened 22 Notch core genes are relative stable in DNA variation. Dynamic expression patterns are associated with the Notch activity, which are mainly regulated by multiple ncRNAs via interactions of ncRNA:mRNA and ceRNA networks. The Notch pathway shows a potential prognostic ability through integrating multi-omics features as well as their targets, and it is correlated with immune infiltration and maybe available drug targets, implying the potential role in individualized treatment. Collectively, all of these findings contribute to exploring crucial role of the key pathway in cancer pathophysiology and gaining mechanistic insights into cross-talks among RNAs and biological pathways, which indicates the possible application of the well-conserved Notch signaling pathway in precision medicine.

A comprehensive analysis of ncRNA-mediated interactions reveals potential prognostic biomarkers in prostate adenocarcinoma.

As one of common malignancies, prostate adenocarcinoma (PRAD) has been a growing health problem and a leading cause of cancer-related death. To obtain expression and functional relevant RNAs, we firstly screened candidate hub mRNAs and characterized their associations with cancer. Eight deregulated genes were identified and used to build a risk model (AUC was 0.972 at 10 years) that may be a specific biomarker for cancer prognosis. Then, relevant miRNAs and lncRNAs were screened, and the constructed primarily interaction networks showed the potential cross-talks among diverse RNAs. IsomiR landscapes were surveyed to understand the detailed isomiRs in relevant homologous miRNA loci, which largely enriched RNA interaction network due to diversities of sequence and expression. We finally characterized TK1, miR-222-3p and SNHG3 as crucial RNAs, and the abnormal expression patterns of them were correlated with poor survival outcomes. TK1 was found synthetic lethal interactions with other genes, implicating potential therapeutic target in precision medicine. LncRNA SNHG3 can sponge miR-222-3p to perturb RNA regulatory network and TK1 expression. These results demonstrate that TK1:miR-222-3p:SNHG3 axis may be a potential prognostic biomarker, which will contribute to further understanding cancer pathophysiology and providing potential therapeutic targets in precision medicine.