Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare.

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China.

Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution in China from 2000 to 2035 and examined the drivers. The results show that from 2019 to 2035, deaths were projected to decease 15.4% (6.6%-20.7%, 95% CI) and 8.4% (0.6%-13.5%) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively, but increase 10.4% (5.1%-20.5%) and 18.1% (13.0%-28.3%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Population aging will be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare. Region-specific measures are required to mitigate the health burden of air pollution and this requires long-term efforts and mutual cooperation among regions in China.

Reexamining the relationship between urbanization and pollutant emissions in China based on the STIRPAT model.

Understanding the relationship between urbanization and pollutant emissions in China is of great significance to realizing sustainable development. Previous studies focused on the relationship between urbanization and air pollutants in China. However, the relationship between urbanization and industrial or domestic pollutants remains unclear. In this paper, we used the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to examine whether an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship exists between urbanization and pollutant emissions, including industrial wastewater, industrial SO2, industrial soot (dust), and domestic garbage based on panel data for 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2015. We found that industrial soot (dust) emissions and domestic garbage increased by 83.0% and 43.5%, respectively, whereas industrial wastewater discharge and SO2 emissions decreased by 7.4% and 10.5%, respectively. The identified inverted U-shaped relationship between the urbanization ratio (i.e., percentage of the population living in urban areas) and industrial pollutants supports the EKC hypothesis. However, the domestic garbage volume increased with increasing urbanization ratio. In the future, more attention should be paid to the prevention and control of domestic pollution. In addition, small and medium-sized cities should reduce pollutant emissions and determine effective ways to achieve sustainable development.

Regional differences and spatial patterns of health status of the member states in the "Belt and Road" Initiative.

The strategy of the "Belt and Road" initiative aims not only to promote the cooperation and the development of economic trade, but also to boost the integration and development in multiple fields-especially in the field of health. This paper explores the health levels of member-states in the Belt and Road initiative from the perspective of regional differences and spatial patterns. Data from the 68 member-states in the Belt and Road initiative were selected from the statistical data on disease and socioeconomics in all countries from the 2015 publication by the World Bank and the World Health Organization. Health indicators that can reflect health levels of member states were selected. Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to analyze the spatial clustering and hot/cold spots of the health status. After that a novel spatial statistical method "geographical detector" was used to analysis the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the selected health indicators. The result showed that the health level of the member states fluctuated around the world average and varied greatly within the member states. The health status of the member states showed spatial clustering, and the q-statistics of the geographical detector confirmed that the health status demonstrated statistically significant spatial heterogeneity for different continent the member states reside. In general, member states in Europe and Oceania demonstrated higher health status, while those in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and part of Middle East have lower health status. In particular, special attention should be paid to control communicable diseases in African member states. Different regions and member states face different kinds of health threats in various degrees. Member states should strengthen health cooperation between themselves and work closely with other countries to make the "belt and road" a healthy road.