Development and validation of a nomogram for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis: A cohort study in 1099 cases.

OBJECTIVES: Esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EVB) is a catastrophic complication of decompensated liver cirrhosis. We aimed to establish a nomogram based on noninvasive clinical and imaging variables to predict the risk of EVB. METHODS: The cut-off value of each variable was determined through univariate regression analysis. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors and establish predictive models. The nomogram was established and validated using the calibration discrimination across different groups. RESULTS: Six indicators, including platelet count, hemoglobin, albumin to globulin ratio, fasting blood glucose, serum chloride, and computed tomography portal vein diameter (CTPD), were found to be related to the risk of EVB. Two models, with or without CTPD, were established and compared. Model 1 with CTPD had better discrimination than model 2 with C-index of 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.872-0.915) and 0.862 (95% CI 0.837-0.887) in the primary cohort, respectively (Z = 2.027, P = 0.043). While the C-index of the two models in the validation cohort was 0.878 (95% CI 0.838-0.919) and 0.810 (95% CI 0.757-0.863). Moreover, the clinical decision analysis curve and clinical impact curve showed that these models might confer a significant net benefit on patients and provide a reference threshold for clinicians. CONCLUSION: A nomogram using routine clinical indicators was established to predict the risk of EVB in patients with liver cirrhosis, which was verified in an independent cohort and demonstrated a great consistency.

Novel endoscopic treatment strategy for early esophageal cancer in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices.

The safety and efficacy of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and radiofrequency ablation for early esophageal cancer (EEC) in cirrhotic patients has not been thoroughly investigated to date. The present study aimed to establish a standard treatment strategy for EEC in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices. Six cirrhotic patients with early flat-type EECs (high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia) on or adjacent to esophageal varices were enrolled. Esophageal varix ligation (EVL) or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) were used for the initial management of esophageal varices. Follow-up endoscopy was performed two months following the initial procedure. The mean longitudinal length of the lesions was 4.3 cm (range, 2-6 cm). The average procedure time was 72.8 min (range, 34-135 min) and the average longitudinal length of the resected specimens was 45.6 mm (range, 30-90 mm). One case had a tumor-positive lateral margin with lymphovascular infiltration. Both complete and curative resection rates were 80% (4/5 lesions). Large intraoperative bleeding was detected in patients undergoing EVL compared with TIPS prior to the ESD procedure. No severe complications or mortality-associated events, including massive postoperative bleeding, perforation or hepatic failure, were observed. No recurrence and metastasis were observed during the follow-up period. The current study suggested a novel treatment strategy for EECs complicated by esophageal varices in cirrhosis with good treatment results, no neoplastic progression and an acceptable adverse event profile.