Using decision tree models and comprehensive statewide data to predict opioid overdoses following prison release.

PURPOSE: Identifying predictors of opioid overdose following release from prison is critical for opioid overdose prevention. METHODS: We leveraged an individually linked, state-wide database from 2015-2020 to predict the risk of opioid overdose within 90 days of release from Massachusetts state prisons. We developed two decision tree modeling schemes: a model fit on all individuals with a single weight for those that experienced an opioid overdose and models stratified by race/ethnicity. We compared the performance of each model using several performance measures and identified factors that were most predictive of opioid overdose within racial/ethnic groups and across models. RESULTS: We found that out of 44,246 prison releases in Massachusetts between 2015-2020, 2237 (5.1%) resulted in opioid overdose in the 90 days following release. The performance of the two predictive models varied. The single weight model had high sensitivity (79%) and low specificity (56%) for predicting opioid overdose and was more sensitive for White non-Hispanic individuals (sensitivity = 84%) than for racial/ethnic minority individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Stratified models had better balanced performance metrics for both White non-Hispanic and racial/ethnic minority groups and identified different predictors of overdose between racial/ethnic groups. Across racial/ethnic groups and models, involuntary commitment (involuntary treatment for alcohol/substance use disorder) was an important predictor of opioid overdose.

Identifying structural risk factors for overdose following incarceration: a concept mapping study.

BACKGROUND: Currently, there are more than two million people in prisons or jails, with nearly two-thirds meeting the criteria for a substance use disorder. Following these patterns, overdose is the leading cause of death following release from prison and the third leading cause of death during periods of incarceration in jails. Traditional quantitative methods analyzing the factors associated with overdose following incarceration may fail to capture structural and environmental factors present in specific communities. People with lived experiences in the criminal legal system and with substance use disorder hold unique perspectives and must be involved in the research process. OBJECTIVE: To identify perceived factors that impact overdose following release from incarceration among people with direct criminal legal involvement and experience with substance use. METHODS: Within a community-engaged approach to research, we used concept mapping to center the perspectives of people with personal experience with the carceral system. The following prompt guided our study: "What do you think are some of the main things that make people who have been in jail or prison more and less likely to overdose?" Individuals participated in three rounds of focus groups, which included brainstorming, sorting and rating, and community interpretation. We used the Concept Systems Inc. platform groupwisdom for our analyses and constructed cluster maps. RESULTS: Eight individuals (ages 33 to 53) from four states participated. The brainstorming process resulted in 83 unique factors that impact overdose. The concept mapping process resulted in five clusters: (1) Community-Based Prevention, (2) Drug Use and Incarceration, (3) Resources for Treatment for Substance Use, (4) Carceral Factors, and (5) Stigma and Structural Barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides critical insight into community-identified factors associated with overdose following incarceration. These factors should be accounted for during resource planning and decision-making.

Prevalence of Central Venous Stenosis among Black and White ESKD Patients with Dysfunctional Dialysis Access.

In the United States, significant racial and ethnic disparities exist in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its management. Hemodialysis constitutes the main stay of renal replacement therapy for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), which is initiated using central venous catheters (CVC) in most CKD patients in the United States. Black ESKD patients have higher usage and greater time on CVC for hemodialysis compared to White patients. This trend places Black patients at a potentially higher risk for CVC-related complications such as central venous stenosis (CVS). We posited that Black patients would have a higher prevalence and a greater risk of CVS. A retrospective review was performed of ESKD patients who underwent a fistulogram for dialysis access malfunction. CVS was defined as > 50% stenosis in the central veins. Fistulograms of 428 ESKD patients were adjudicated, and CVS was noted in 167 of these patients. Of the entire cohort, 370 fistulograms belonged to self-reported unique Black and White ESKD patients, of whom 137 patients were noted to have CVS. There was no difference in the of CVS between Black (40%) and White (41%) ESKD patients. However, a higher severity of stenosis (>70%) (P = 0.03) was noted in White ESKD patients. An unadjusted model showed a significant association between CVS and cardiovascular disease and the use of CVCs. The risk-adjusted model showed a significant association between diabetes and CVS. Unlike arterial stenotic lesions, this work for the first time demonstrated higher prevalence of severe venous stenotic lesions in White ESKD patients and linked diabetes to stenotic venous disease. This work paves the way for future studies investigating the risk and influence of race and ethnicity on CVS using a larger and diverse data set.