Strike a chord: How observed ostracism and perceived similarity affect observers' willingness to socialize.

Research has shown that ostracism negatively affects the social willingness of those who are ostracized, but the impact of observers, who play an important role in ostracism situations, has been less studied. Three studies examined whether observed ostracism affects observers' willingness to socialize and the underlying mechanism. The results showed that (1) observed ostracism decreased observers' willingness to socialize; (2) perceived future rejection mediated the relationship between observed ostracism and observers' willingness to socialize; and (3) perceived similarity had a moderating effect on the mediation model. Specifically, the higher the perceived similarity between observers and ostracized individuals, the stronger the effect of observed ostracism on observers' perceived future rejection and willingness to socialize. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive, systematic understanding of how ostracism affects observers, including its underlying mechanisms and boundary conditions.

Identification of circulating metabolites associated with wooden breast and white striping.

Current diagnostic methods for wooden breast and white striping, common breast muscle myopathies of modern commercial broiler chickens, rely on subjective examinations of the pectoralis major muscle, time-consuming microscopy, or expensive imaging technologies. Further research on these disorders would benefit from more quantitative and objective measures of disease severity that can be used in live birds. To this end, we utilized untargeted metabolomics alongside two statistical approaches to evaluate plasma metabolites associated with wooden breast and white striping in 250 male commercial broiler chickens. First, mixed linear modeling was employed to identify metabolites with a significant association with these muscle disorders and found 98 metabolites associated with wooden breast and 44 metabolites associated with white striping (q-value < 0.05). Second, a support vector machine was constructed using stepwise feature selection to determine the smallest subset of metabolites with the highest categorization accuracy for wooden breast. The final support vector machine achieved 94% accuracy using only 6 metabolites. The metabolite 3-methylhistidine, which is often used as an index of myofibrillar breakdown in skeletal muscle, was the top metabolite for both wooden breast and white striping in our mixed linear model and was also the metabolite with highest marginal prediction accuracy (82%) for wooden breast in our support vector machine. Overall, this study identified a candidate set of metabolites for an objective measure of wooden breast or white striping severity in live birds and expanded our understanding of these muscle disorders.

Dynamic estimation of epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 outbreak and effects of interventions on its spread.

BACKGROUND: A key challenge in estimating epidemiological parameters for a pandemic such as the initial COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan is the discrepancy between the officially reported number of infections and the true number of infections. A common approach to tackling the challenge is to use the number of infections exported from the originating city to infer the true number. This approach can only provide a static estimate of the epidemiological parameters before city lockdown because there are almost no exported cases thereafter. METHODS: We propose a Bayesian estimation method that dynamically estimates the epidemiological parameters by recovering true numbers of infections from day-to-day official numbers. To illustrate the use of this method, we provide a comprehensive retrospection on how the COVID-19 had progressed in Wuhan from January 19 to March 5, 2020. Particularly, we estimate that the outbreak sizes by January 23 and March 5 were 11,239 [95% CI 4,794-22,372] and 124,506 [95% CI 69,526-265,113], respectively. RESULTS: The effective reproduction number attained its maximum on January 24 (3.42 [95% CI 3.34-3.50]) and became less than 1 from February 7 (0.76 [95% CI 0.65-0.92]). We also estimate the effects of two major government interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan. CONCLUSIONS: This case study by our proposed method affirms the believed importance and effectiveness of imposing tight non-essential travel restrictions and affirm the importance and effectiveness of government interventions (e.g., transportation suspension and large scale hospitalization) for effective mitigation of COVID-19 community spread.