RESUMO
We used the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation data during 1961 and 2017 of 101 national meteorological stations in Yunnan Province to calculate three climate-induced potential productivity in Yunnan Province by Miami model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The abrupt test was carried out by Mann-Kendell method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and future trends of the three climate-induced potential productivities were analyzed. Results showed that the average values of the temperature potential productivity (Yt), precipitation potential productivity (Yr) and evapotranspiration potential productivity (Ye) during the study period was 1968, 1477 and 1434 g·m-2·a-1, respectively. The value of Yt was rising in Yunnan Province. For the value of Yr /Yt, there was a large difference in water-heat ratio among regions, as well as the binding conditions. There was an abrupt change in climate-induced potential productivity, with Yt began to abrupt change significantly in 2001. There was no abrupt change in Yr, but Ye had abrupt change in 2002-2004. The spatial distribution of climate production potential and climate tendency were uneven. The annual average value of Yt, Yr and Ye was 1030-2465, 927-2341 and 832-1995 g·m-2·a-1, respectively. The climate-induced potential productivity was the lowest in the northwestern and northeastern Yunnan and the highest in the southwestern and southern Yunnan. Most of the climatic propensity rates of Yt, Yr and Ye showed increase, decrease and increase trends respectively. Eight schemes simulating future climate change (i.e., temperature increased by 1 â, precipitation increased by 10%, temperature decreased by 1 â, precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 â and precipitation decreased by 10%, temperature increased by 1 â and precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 â and the precipitation increased by 10%, the temperature decrease by 1 â and precipitation decreased by 10%) would lead to Ye changes of 6-45, 13-77.2, 15-67, -87 to -17, -74-46, 58-96, -54-57, -101 to -59 g·m-2·a-1, respectively. On the whole, if the climate tends to be "warm and wet" in the future, it will be beneficial for crop production. However, if it tends to be "cold and dry", it will be unfavorable to crop production in the study area.
