Enhanced Role of Streamflow Processes in the Evolutionary Trends of Dissolved Organic Carbon.

Investigating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics and drivers in rivers enhances the understanding of carbon-environment linkages and support sustainability. Previous studies did not fully consider the dynamic nature of key drivers that influence the long-term changing trends in DOC concentration over time (the controlling factors and their roles in DOC trend can undergo alterations over time). We analyzed 42 years (1979-2018) of hydrometeorology, sulfate SO4, and DOC data from a 5.42 km2 watershed in central-southern Ontario, Canada. Our findings reveal a significant (p ≤ 0.01) overall increase in DOC concentrations, mainly due to the coevolution of SO4 and streamflow trends, especially the extreme flows. Over the 42-year period, the changing trend of streamflow (especially the extreme high or low flows) have significantly (p < 0.05) intensified their influence on DOC trends, increasing by an average of 30%. Conversely, the impact of SO4 has weakened, experiencing an average decrease of 32.6%. The upward trend in the annual average DOC concentration is attributed to the increasing number of maximum flow days within a year, while the decreasing trend in the number of minimum flow days has a contrasting effect. In other words, changes in maximum and minimum flow days have a counteracting effect on the DOC concentration trends. These results underscore the importance of considering the effects of altered streamflow processes on carbon cycle changes under evolving environmental conditions.

Dynamics of dissolved organic carbon during drought and flood events: A phase-by-stages perspective.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key water quality parameter that plays a crucial role in controlling aquatic ecosystems and carbon cycling. Understanding DOC dynamics during hydrological extremes (i.e., droughts and floods) helps in managing water quality, but such variability is rarely studied. Furthermore, how differences in DOC concentrations among phase-by-stages of drought/flood affect simulation performances based on hydrological features remains unclear. Here, phase-by-stages of hydrological drought (flood) were divided into intensification (rising) and recovery (falling) periods based on drought peak intensity (flood peak intensity). The long-term (1976-2019) daily discharge and weekly (biweekly) DOC concentrations from four headwater streams with different watershed sizes (from 9.97 to 119.09 ha) in south-central Ontario, Canada, were used to achieve the above aims. The results showed that (i) the average DOC concentration during intensification (rising) stage of drought (flood) was smaller (larger) than during recovery (falling). (ii) Simulations performed better when accounting for phase-by-stages of drought/flood, with reductions in mean absolute percentage error of 32.85 % and 53.59 % for drought and flood events, respectively. These results will help understand the dynamics of DOC during hydrological extremes and improve simulation performance of numerical models for water quality parameters under changing environmental conditions.

Long-term ice phenology records spanning up to 578 years for 78 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere.

In recent decades, lakes have experienced unprecedented ice loss with widespread ramifications for winter ecological processes. The rapid loss of ice, resurgence of winter biology, and proliferation of remote sensing technologies, presents a unique opportunity to integrate disciplines to further understand the broad spatial and temporal patterns in ice loss and its consequences. Here, we summarize ice phenology records for 78 lakes in 12 countries across North America, Europe, and Asia to permit the inclusion and harmonization of in situ ice phenology observations in future interdisciplinary studies. These ice records represent some of the longest climate observations directly collected by people. We highlight the importance of applying the same definition of ice-on and ice-off within a lake across the time-series, regardless of how the ice is observed, to broaden our understanding of ice loss across vast spatial and temporal scales.

Atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic particles and microplastics in south-central Ontario, Canada.

Microplastics are ubiquitous in the environment; however, few studies have examined their abundance in atmospheric deposition in pristine environments, remote from anthropogenic emission sources. In the current study, atmospheric deposition samples were collected for 13 months (February 2019-March 2020) from four precipitation chemistry monitoring stations located in Muskoka-Haliburton, south-central Ontario, Canada. Anthropogenic particles (i.e., synthetic particles but not necessarily plastic) were observed at each station with an average deposition rate of 57 particles/m2/day (range from 32 to 73 particles/m2/day). Of the anthropogenic particles identified, 12% were plastic resulting in an average microplastic (mp) deposition rate of 7 mp/m2/day (range 4-9 mp/m2/day). Approximately 85% of the particles were fibres with fragments comprising only 15%. The most common particle colours were blue and red with 50% of the fragments and 84% of fibres being one of these two colours. Raman spectroscopy determined that polyamide and polyethylene terephthalate were the two most abundant polymers at 24% and 19%, respectively. Across the four stations anthropogenic particle concentrations were significantly related to wind speed (rs = 0.32 to 0.62) and temperature (rs = -0.53 to -0.84), with a noticeable increase in particle concentration when wind shifted from the west (average of 7.2 mp/L) to the south-east (average of 11.5 mp/L). Faster wind speed resulted in a larger airshed source area, and the seasonal effect associated with changes in temperature and wind direction led to changes in potential source regions that were contributing microplastics, such as the Greater Toronto Area (>200 km away).

Dissolved organic carbon response to hydrological drought characteristics: Based on long-term measurements of headwater streams.

Influence of extreme hydrological events on water quality has been widely concerned. For instance, droughts can inhibit dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports or imports. However, the response relationship of DOC to hydrological drought characteristics (i.e., duration and severity) requires more in-depth research. We propose an integrated framework for constructing, validating, and applying the response relationship model, and investigate the capability of response model to simulate DOC based on hydrological drought characteristics. Three headwater basins (HP3a, HP4, and HP6), with different drainage areas (9.28-122.80 ha) and long-term (>40 year) observed DOC concentration and hydrometeorological data, in Harp Lake catchment, south-central Ontario, southeastern Canada, are used to demonstrate the proposed framework. Run theory and variable drought thresholds (VDTs) are used to identify hydrological drought characteristics, and DOC during hydrological drought is extracted. Based on the extracted hydrological drought characteristics and DOC for one basin (i.e., HP3a), the response relationship model is constructed and validated, and then applied to other two basins (i.e., HP4 and HP6). Three evaluation indicators: coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are served to test the goodness-of-fit performance of the response relationship model. The results show that (i) annual DOC concentration showed a significant (a = 0.01) increasing trend during 1978-2018 in the study basin. (ii) During the hydrological drought, the variation of temperature affected DOC variation indirectly through direct influence on SO4 variation. (iii) The response sensitivity of DOC to hydrologic process with different timescales is varying within a year, namely, there is a larger response sensitivity from March to May than in other months. (iv) DOC during the hydrological drought has a close and regular linear relationship with hydrological drought characteristics, i.e., with the increase of drought duration and severity, DOC concentration also increases. The relationship with drought duration is better than that of severity (R2 = 0.92 vs 0.35). (v) The response relationship model (autoregressive integrated moving average) can simulate DOC in hydrological drought (R2 ≥ 0.87, RMSE ≤ 0.86, MAPE ≤ 13.69%) at HP3a, and also has good applications at HP4 and HP6 basins. These results provide an improved understanding of DOC-drought relationship, and may support policy makers that look for increased resilience of aquatic ecological security to droughts.

Earlier winter/spring runoff and snowmelt during warmer winters lead to lower summer chlorophyll-a in north temperate lakes.

Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass. To test this hypothesis, we developed an index of runoff timing based on the date when 50% of cumulative runoff between January 1 and May 31 had occurred. The runoff index was computed using stream discharge for inflows, outflows, or for flows from nearby streams for 41 lakes in Europe and North America. The runoff index was then compared with summer chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) across 5-53 years for each lake. Earlier runoff generally corresponded to lower summer Chl-a. Furthermore, years with earlier runoff also had lower winter/spring runoff magnitude, more protracted runoff, and earlier ice-out. We examined several lake characteristics that may regulate the strength of the relationship between runoff timing and summer Chl-a concentrations; however, our tested covariates had little effect on the relationship. Date of ice-out was not clearly related to summer Chl-a concentrations. Our results indicate that ongoing changes in winter conditions may have important consequences for summer phytoplankton biomass and production.

Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought.

Hydrological drought usually lags behind meteorological drought. Obtaining the propagation threshold (PT) from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is important for providing early warnings of hydrological drought. Previous studies have only used single timescales to characterize PT; however, a single timescale cannot accurately describe the propagation attributes from meteorological to hydrological drought because drought has multi-timescale features. In addition, several methods can be used to obtain PT, such as run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods. However, these methods might produce different estimates of PT. Here, multi-timescale drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), were used to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought. PT estimates at multiple timescales (e.g., 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month) obtained from run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods were compared, and the possible reasons for differences in the PT estimates are discussed. We conducted a case study of three sub-basins (Xinfengjiang River, Qiuxiangjiang River, and Andunshui River) with low levels of human activity in the Dongjiang River Basin, which is located in a humid region in southern China. We found that estimates of PT differed at different timescales of drought indices and with different methods at the same timescales. Longer timescales of hydrological drought corresponded to larger PT and vice versa. The major cause of this pattern was the fact that different timescales of drought indices showed different response sensitivities to drought events. The PT obtained from run theory was the shortest; thus, run theory can provide conservative warnings to aid drought prevention and mitigation. Our findings can help drought managers select effective tools to manage the early stages of hydrological drought based on meteorological forecasts and thus minimize the negative impacts of hazards posed by drought.

Dissolved organic carbon in eastern Canadian lakes: Novel patterns and relationships with regional and global factors.

Long-term patterns in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in 49 eastern Canadian lakes from four sites were re-examined with a ~ 35-year (~1980-2015) dataset. The study sites were Dorset (number of lakes, n = 8), Experimental Lakes Area (ELA, n = 4), Kejimkujik (n = 26) and Yarmouth (n = 11). Lake DOC patterns were synchronous within each site. However, comparisons of DOC patterns across sites showed that they were synchronous only between the Kejimkujik and Yarmouth locations. Hence, these two sites were pooled into a single Nova Scotia site (NS). Increases in DOC concentration were evident in Dorset, Ontario from 1988 (r2 = 0.78, p < 0.001) and NS from 2000 (r2 = 0.43, p = 0.006). DOC at the ELA in northwestern Ontario had a different pattern compared to the other sites, i.e., DOC had increased earlier (1983-2000), and then, unlike Dorset and NS, neither an increase nor decrease was detected between 2001 and 2015 (p = 0.78). Precipitation and sulfur deposition explained the greatest variance in DOC patterns at the Dorset and NS sites (i.e., precipitation: 21-49% and sulfur deposition: 24-54%). Precipitation was the most important driver of DOC at the ELA. Our results indicate that all the sites have gone through a process of increasing DOC, but at different times. The stabilizing pattern at the ELA since 2001 may suggest that DOC concentrations in ELA lakes have reached, or are approaching a new equilibrium, a phenomenon that was not observed at the other sites. Also, the increase in DOC was not always associated with declining sulfur deposition (e.g., ELA). Therefore, we conclude that there was considerable variation in DOC patterns across this large geographic region of Canada and potential drivers of these patterns were not consistent across these diverse sites.

Modifying SWAT-CS for simulating chloride dynamics in a Boreal Shield headwater catchment in south-central Ontario, Canada.

Rising chloride concentrations in surface water due to applications of deicing practices is proving detrimental to aquatic systems. In this study, a new chloride module is developed for a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool specially designed for Canadian Shield catchments (SWAT-CS) to model long-term chloride dynamics in a headwater catchment in south-central Ontario, Canada. In this modified model (SWAT-CS-CL; extended SWAT-CS model for chloride), chloride sources, sinks, internal storages or pools, and movement between these components are depicted. Performance of SWAT-CS-CL is assessed using a two-stage evaluation process based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty analysis (GLUE) framework. SWAT-CS-CL was found to perform moderately well, with simulated monthly chloride in streams and lake outflow following overall chloride trends and capturing regular chloride dynamics. However, simulations fail to consistently reproduce some instances of large or low chloride fluxes. Limitations in simulating large chloride fluxes may be attributed to the inadequate ability for SWAT-CS-CL to closely simulate snowpack and snowmelt processes. Parameter transferability among sub-catchments does suggest that there is a potential to extend SWAT-CS-CL to other Canadian Shield catchments for chloride modelling. Further improvements are needed through more trials to other catchments in a same or different landscape, and by modifying the simulation structure, especially representation of snow hydrology and chloride inputs.

The effects of nitrogen addition on dissolved carbon in boreal forest soils of northeastern China.

Understanding the effects of nitrogen (N) addition on dissolved carbon in boreal forest soils is essential for accurate evaluation of regional carbon balances. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of different levels and types of N addition on soil dissolved carbon concentration in a cold-temperate coniferous forest through an in-situ fertilization experiment. Simulated atmospheric N addition was applied in a factorial experiment with N addition level (control, 10, 20 and 40 kg of N ha-1yr-1) and N type (NH4Cl, KNO3 and NH4NO3) treatments. The experiment was conducted over the 2010 growing season (May-September) at the Kailaqi farm of Genhe Forestry Bureau, located in the northern Great Xin'an mountain range, northern China. Monthly N addition treatments were applied in three replicate plots per treatment (n = 36), and measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) were derived from monthly sampling of the organic and mineral soil horizons. There was a significant effect of N type, with the combined N source (NH4NO3) producing significantly higher DOC than the control (ambient addition) or the NH4Cl treatment in both the organic and mineral layers. The N addition treatment increased DIC in the organic layer at the low levels only, while N type did not have a significant effect. There was a significant interaction of the month and the N level treatment, as low level N addition tended to increase the content of soil DOC while high level N tended to inhibit soil DOC content, with these trends being most pronounced in the middle of the growing season. These results elucidate the importance of the type and timing of N additions to the dynamics of soil carbon pools.

SWAT-CS(enm): Enhancing SWAT nitrate module for a Canadian Shield catchment.

Nonpoint source modeling using hydrological models has been extensively studied at agriculture and urban watersheds; however, this has not been well addressed in forested ones where agricultural sources are comparatively minimal and nitrogen deposition exerts remarkable impacts on the nutrient cycles of a catchment. Thus it is critically important for hydrological models to incorporate the dynamics of nitrogen deposition and its transport processes, for reasonable nitrogen modeling. This is especially so for the Canadian Shield, which is characterized by a cold climate and special physiographic features. A revision of Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Canadian Shield (SWAT-CS) was proposed by Fu et al. (2014) to better characterize the hydrological features. In this study, more revisions were added to better simulate processes of nitrate by: 1) incorporating the dynamics of nitrogen deposition; and 2) allowing the deposition to distribute along with rapid-moving macropore flows. The newly revised model, SWAT-CS(enm) (SWAT-CS with an Enhanced Nitrate Module), and SWAT-CS were calibrated and tested with data of a subbasin of Harp Lake in south-central Ontario for 1990 to 2007. Modeling performance of nitrate flux rate in the stream for SWAT-CS(enm) was nearly acceptable with maximum daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (ENSs) for calibration and validation periods of 0.66 and 0.43, respectively; whereas the result of SWAT-CS was generally unsatisfied with maximum daily ENSs of 0.16 and 0.07, respectively. An uncertainty analysis using GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) showed a modest performance as about 50% of observations can be incorporated by the 95% prediction range deriving from the behavioral solutions (ENS≥0.5) for both daily and monthly simulations. It is concluded that the enhanced nitrate module improved the model performance of SWAT-CS on nitrate modeling, since the previous SWAT-CS failed to consider the effect of dynamics of nitrogen deposition and its sequential processes at the investigated site.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America.

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period - a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI - high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.

Improving calibration of two key parameters in Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system, and analysing the influence of initial loss on flood peak flows.

Parameter calibration is a key and difficult issue for a hydrological model. Taking the Jinjiang Xixi watershed of south-east China as the study area, we proposed methods to improve the calibration of two very sensitive parameters, Muskingum K and initial loss, in the Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) model. Twenty-three rainstorm flood events occurring from 1972 to 1977 were used to calibrate the model using a trial-and-error approach, and a relationship between initial loss and initial discharge for these flood events was established; seven rainstorm events occurring from 1978 to 1979 were used to validate the two parameters. The influence of initial loss change on different return-period floods was evaluated. A fixed Muskingum K value, which was calibrated by assuming a flow wave velocity at 3 m/s, could be used to simulate a flood hydrograph, and the empirical power-function relationship between initial loss and initial discharge made the model more applicable for flood forecasting. The influence of initial loss on peak floods was significant but not identical for different flood levels, and the change rate of peak floods caused by the same initial loss change was more remarkable when the return period increased.