Health Services Costs of Clinical Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the annual healthcare burden of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (<40%) in Singapore. METHODS: Retrospective longitudinal descriptive cohort study was conducted using a linked national administrative data set (Singapore Cardiovascular Longitudinal Outcomes Database). In Singapore, during 2011, there were a total of 3267 HF-related hospital admissions. Among these, 1631 patients (49.9%), who had an ejection fraction of less than 40%, were followed up for 9 years. The primary outcomes were annual healthcare costs related to hospital admissions and outpatient visits. RESULTS: There was a consistent decline in HF-related hospital admissions over the years, and the average per-hospital admission cost and average cost per day for HF varied over the 9 years. The average all-cause per-patient admission cost remained stable annually, ranging between S$16 000 and S$18 800. In the final year of life, there was a significant increase in both all-cause and HF-related hospital admission costs (by 24% and 54% from the previous year, respectively), and this rise in costs reflected increased frequency of admissions and longer hospital stays. There was an upward trend in the cost of outpatient visits as the patients neared death. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-based HF care imposes a significant financial impact on Singapore's healthcare system. This suggests a need for cost-efficient management strategies to reduce the reliance on hospital-based treatment, thus mitigating economic pressures on the healthcare system.

Activated partial thromboplastin time-based clot waveform analysis: a potential for application in acute myocardial infarction and its complications.

Activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT)-based clot waveform analysis (CWA) is a plasma-based global haemostatic assay. Elevated CWA parameters have been associated with hypercoagulability in venous thromboembolism, but its role in arterial thrombotic disease is uncertain. This study aims to explore the relationship between aPTT-based CWA and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and its complications. In a retrospective cohort study of patients with AMI who underwent emergency cardiac catheterisation, pre-procedural aPTT and CWA parameters-min1, min2 and max2 were measured. These were compared against a control group of patients, consisting of patients who underwent elective orthopaedic and urological procedures. Within the AMI cohort, we also compared aPTT and CWA parameters of those with and without clinical complications of AMI. Results: Compared to controls (N = 109), patients with AMI (N = 214) had shorter aPTT (26.7 ± 3.3 s vs 27.9 ± 1.7 s, P < 0.001) and higher CWA parameters (min1: 6.11 ± 1.40%/s vs 5.58 ± 1.14%/s; min2: 0.98 ± 0.23%/s2 vs 0.90 ± 0.19%/s2; max2: 0.81 ± 0.20%/s2 vs 0.74 ± 0.16%/s2, all P ≤ 0.001). There was an increased incidence of elevated CWA parameters, in the AMI group, with odds ratio (OR) of 2.06 [95% CI 1.10-3.86], 2.23 (95% CI 1.18-4.24) and 2.01 (95% CI 1.07-3.77) for min1, min2 and max2, respectively. Similarly, elevated min1 and min2 were both individually associated with the presence of adverse outcomes of AMI, both with ORs of 2.63 (95% CI 1.24-5.59). Elevated aPTT-based CWA parameters are significantly associated with the occurrence of AMI and its complications. These findings identify the potential utility of CWA as risk and prognostic markers for AMI and warrants future works.

Longitudinal change in cardiorespiratory fitness and the association with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in young Asian men: a cohort study.

Introduction: Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in young adulthood is a determinant of chronic disease risk. To better understand whether CRF might also behave as a modifiable risk factor, we examined the associations between longitudinal changes in 2.4 km run times and health outcomes in a cohort of healthy young men. Methods: Our dataset comprised individual run times and health outcomes captured in four national registries. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between baseline run times and relative hazards of first major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Relative hazards associated with longitudinal change in run times were estimated using models that were adjusted for run-time at baseline. Results: The study sample comprised 148 825 healthy men ages 18-34 years who had undergone at least two routine fitness tests that were 5-9 years apart. During 1 294 778 person-years of follow-up, we observed 1275 first MACE and 764 ACM events occurring at mean ages of 43.2 (SD 6.0) years and 39.2 (SD 6.6) years, respectively. A 1% increase in run-time per annum was associated with a 1.13 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.16) times greater hazard of first MACE and a 1.06 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.10) times greater hazard of ACM. The association between longitudinal change in run times and first MACE was preserved in sensitivity analyses using models adjusted for body mass index at baseline. Conclusion: Among men under the age of 35 years, longitudinal change in run times was associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease two decades onwards.

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

Optimal door-to-balloon time for primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Door-to-balloon time (DTBT) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a performance metric by which primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) services are assessed. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with STEMI undergoing PPCI between January 2007 to December 2019 from the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry were included. Patients were stratified based on DTBT (≤60 min, 61-90 min, 91-180 min) and Killip status (I-III vs. IV). Outcomes assessed included all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30-days and 1-year. RESULTS: In total, 13,823 patients were included, with 82.59% achieving DTBT ≤90 min and 49.77% achieving DTBT ≤60 min. For Killip I-III (n = 11,591,83.85%), the median DTBT was 60[46-78]min. The 30-day all-cause mortality for DTBT of ≤60 min, 61-90 min and 91-180 min was 1.08%, 2.17% and 4.33% respectively (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, however, there was no significant difference for 30-day and 1-year outcomes across all DTBT (p > 0.05). For Killip IV, the median DTBT was 68[51-91]min. The 30-day all-cause mortality for DTBT of ≤60 min, 61-90 min and 91-180 min was 11.74%, 20.48% and 35.06% respectively (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis for 30-day and 1-year outcomes, DTBT 91-180 min was an independent predictor of worse outcomes (p < 0.05), but there was no significant difference between DTBT of ≤60 min and 61-90 min (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In Killip I-III patients, DTBT had no significant impact on outcomes upon adjustment for confounders. Conversely, for Killip IV patients, a DTBT of >90 min was associated with significantly higher adverse outcomes, with no differences between a DTBT of ≤60 min vs. 61-90 min. Outcomes in STEMI involve a complex interplay of factors and recommendations of a lowered DTBT of ≤60 min will require further evaluation.

Strategies to prevent cardiovascular disease in Singapore: A call to action from Singapore Heart Foundation, Singapore Cardiac Society and Chapter of Cardiologists of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore.

Introduction: In 2022, the Minister for Health of Singapore launched Healthier SG, a national strategy in championing the shift towards a population health approach. Method: The Singapore Heart Foundation conducted a series of roundtable discussions, also attended by representatives of the Singapore Cardiac Society and the Chapter of Cardiologists of the Academy of Medicine Singapore. During the meetings, the authors formulated interventions supportive of Healthier SG that specifically aimed to uplift the state of cardiovascular (CV) preventive care in Singapore. Results: In line with Healthier SG, the authors propose a 3-pronged approach ("Healthier Heart SG") to augment the success of Healthier SG in achieving good CV outcomes. This proposal includes the following components: (1) a call to update the standards of care in addressing the 5 main modifiable risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD); (2) patient education through cooperation between healthcare professionals and community partners for a whole-of-system approach; and (3) support for integrated care, including access to cardiac rehabilitation in the community, improved referral processes and access to nutrition/dietetics counselling and tobacco cessation, optimal use of information technology, and continued CV research. Conclusion: Healthier Heart SG would bring the standards of care and CV care delivery in Singapore closer to achieving the vision of proactive prevention of CVD and CV morbidity and mortality. This can only be achieved through the concerted efforts of healthcare professionals, policymakers and community partners, coupled with the cooperation of community members.

Role of anticoagulation in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a contemporary narrative review.

INTRODUCTION: Anticoagulants play a vital role as part of the antithrombotic therapy of myocardial infarction and are complementary to antiplatelet therapies. In the acute setting, the rationale for their use is to antagonize the ongoing clotting cascade including during percutaneous coronary intervention. Anticoagulation may be an important part of the longer-term antithrombotic strategy especially in patients who have other existing indications (e.g. atrial fibrillation) for their use. AREAS COVERED: In this narrative review, the authors provide a contemporary summary of the anticoagulation strategies of patients presenting with NSTEMI, both in terms of anticoagulation during the acute phase as well as suggested antithrombotic regimens for patients who require long-term anticoagulation for other indications. EXPERT OPINION: Patients presenting with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) should be initiated on anticoagulation (e.g. heparin/low molecular weight heparin) for the initial hospitalization period for those medically managed or until percutaneous coronary intervention. Longer term management of NSTEMI for patients with an existing indication for long-term anticoagulation should comprise triple antithrombotic therapy of anticoagulant (preferably DOAC) with aspirin and clopidogrel for up to 1 month (typically 1 week or until hospital discharge), followed by DOAC plus clopidogrel for up to 1 year, and then DOAC monotherapy thereafter.

Cluster analysis and visualisation of electronic health records data to identify undiagnosed patients with rare genetic diseases.

Rare genetic diseases affect 5-8% of the population but are often undiagnosed or misdiagnosed. Electronic health records (EHR) contain large amounts of data, which provide opportunities for analysing and mining. Data mining, in the form of cluster analysis and visualisation, was performed on a database containing deidentified health records of 1.28 million patients across 3 major hospitals in Singapore, in a bid to improve the diagnostic process for patients who are living with an undiagnosed rare disease, specifically focusing on Fabry Disease and Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH). On a baseline of 4 patients, we identified 2 additional patients with potential diagnosis of Fabry disease, suggesting a potential 50% increase in diagnosis. Similarly, we identified > 12,000 individuals who fulfil the clinical and laboratory criteria for FH but had not been diagnosed previously. This proof-of-concept study showed that it is possible to perform mining on EHR data albeit with some challenges and limitations.

An updated analysis on myocarditis and pericarditis cases reported following mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines have been associated with myocarditis/pericarditis, especially in young males. We evaluated the risk of myocarditis/pericarditis following mRNA vaccines by brand, age, sex and dose number in Singapore. METHODS: Adverse event reports of myocarditis/pericarditis following mRNA vaccines received by the Health Sciences Authority from 30 December 2020 to 25 July 2022 were included, with a data lock on 30 September 2022. Case adjudication was done by an independent panel of cardiologists using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention case definition. Reporting rates were compared with expected rates using historical data from 2018 to 2020. RESULTS: Of the 152 adjudicated cases, males comprised 75.0%. The median age was 30 years. Most cases occurred after Dose 2 (49.3%). The median time to onset was 2 days. Reporting rates were highest in males aged 12-17 years for both primary series (11.5 [95% confidence interval [CI] 6.7-18.4] per 100,000 doses, post-Dose 2) and following booster doses (7.1 [95% CI 3.0-13.9] per 100,000 doses). In children aged 5-11 years, myocarditis remained very rare (0.2 per 100,000 doses). The reporting rates for Booster 1 were generally similar or lower than those for Dose 2. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of myocarditis/pericarditis with mRNA vaccines was highest in adolescent males following Dose 2, and this was higher than historically observed background rates. Most cases were clinically mild. The risk of myocarditis should be weighed against the benefits of receiving an mRNA vaccine, keeping in mind that SARS-CoV-2 infections carry substantial risks of myocarditis/pericarditis, as well as the evolving landscape of the disease.

Asia-Pacific Investigators and Asian Enrollment in Cardiometabolic Trials: Insights From Publications Between 2011 and 2020.

Background: A lack of geographic and racial diversity in clinical trial populations may arise from a disproportionate focus on the United States and Europe for trial leadership and conduct. Inadequate diversity may compromise the external validity to the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, where 60% of global cardiometabolic disease exists. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the proportion and trends of Asian race participants and APAC authorship in cardiometabolic trials. Methods: We performed a systematic review of all cardiovascular, diabetes and obesity-related randomized controlled trials (phase ≥2, n = ≥100) published in these major medical journals: the New England Journal of Medicine, the Lancet, and the Journal of the American Medical Association between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2020. Trial leadership was defined by first authorship, and any listed author was considered a trial collaborator. Temporal trends were evaluated using the Jonckheere-Terpstra proportion test and correlations using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Participant-to-prevalence ratios (PPR) were determined using Global Health Data Exchange registry data. Results: A total of 8.3% (218,613 of 2,619,710) participants identified as being of Asian race and 7.7% of total enrollment occurred in APAC. APAC lead authorship occurred in 52 of 656 (7.9%) trials and collaboration in 10.1% (1312 of 13,000 of authors), which correlated with Asian enrollment (r = 0.63 and r = 0.76, respectively). A marginal increase in the proportion of Asian race (Δ1.40% ± 6.95%/year, P = 0.003) and APAC regional (Δ1.46% ± 8.67%/year, P = 0.003) enrollment was observed; however, severe regional underrepresentation persisted (PPR <0.30). Conclusions: Despite a favorable trend over the past decade, Asian participants and authors from APAC remain significantly underrepresented in seminal cardiometabolic trials; barriers to trial conduct and leadership in this region must be addressed.

Non-invasive mid-term electrocardiogram patch monitoring is effective in detecting atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a cause of serious morbidity such as stroke. Early detection and treatment of AF is important. Current guidelines recommend screening via opportunistic pulse taking or 12­lead electrocardiogram. Mid-term ECG patch monitors increases the sensitivity of AF detection. METHODS: The Singapore Atrial Fibrillation Study is a prospective multi-centre study aiming to study the incidence of AF in patients with no prior AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 1, with the use of a mid-term continuous ECG monitoring device (Spyder ECG). Consecutive patients from both inpatient and outpatient settings were recruited from 3 major hospitals from May 2016 to December 2019. RESULTS: Three hundred and fifty-five patients were monitored. 6 patients (1.7%) were diagnosed with AF. There were no significant differences in total duration of monitoring between the AF and non-AF group (6.39 ± 3.19 vs 5.42 ± 2.46 days, p = 0.340). Patients with newly detected AF were more likely to have palpitations (50.0% vs 11.8%, p = 0.027). Half of the patients (n = 3, 50.0%) were diagnosed on the first day of monitoring and the rest were diagnosed after 24 h. On univariate analysis, only hyperlipidemia was associated with reduced odds of being diagnosed with AF (OR HR 0.08 CI 0.01-0.74, p = 0.025). In a group of 128 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and had post-operative ECG monitoring, 9 patients (7.0%) were diagnosed with post-operative AF. CONCLUSIONS: The use of non-invasive mid-term patch-based ECG monitoring is an effective modality for AF screening.

Awareness and attitudes of elderly Southeast Asian adults towards telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study.

Introduction: We aimed to understand the awareness and attitudes of elderly Southeast Asians towards telehealth services during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in this study. Methods: In this qualitative study, 78 individuals from Singapore (51.3% female, mean age 73.0 ± 7.6 years) were interviewed via telephone between 13 May 2020 and 9 June 2020 during Singapore's first COVID-19 'circuit breaker'. Participants were asked to describe their understanding of telehealth, their experience of and willingness to utilise these services, and the barriers and facilitators underlying their decision. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis, guided by the United Theory of Acceptance Use of Technology framework. Results: Of the 78 participants, 24 (30.8%) were able to describe the range of telehealth services available and 15 (19.2%) had previously utilised these services. Conversely, 14 (17.9%) participants thought that telehealth comprised solely home medication delivery and 50 (51.3%) participants did not know about telehealth. Despite the advantages offered by telehealth services, participants preferred in-person consultations due to a perceived lack of human interaction and accuracy of diagnoses, poor digital literacy and a lack of access to telehealth-capable devices. Conclusion: Our results showed poor overall awareness of the range of telehealth services available among elderly Asian individuals, with many harbouring erroneous views regarding their use. These data suggest that public health education campaigns are needed to improve awareness of and correct negative perceptions towards telehealth services in elderly Asians.

Trends and predictions of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction: findings from a multiethnic nationwide cohort.

Background: Understanding the trajectories of metabolic risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is necessary for healthcare policymaking. We estimated future projections of the incidence of metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population with AMI. Methods: The incidence and mortality contributed by metabolic risk factors in the population with AMI (diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, hyperlipidemia, overweight/obesity, active/previous smokers) were projected up to year 2050, using linear and Poisson regression models based on the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry from 2007 to 2018. Forecast analysis was stratified based on age, sex and ethnicity. Findings: From 2025 to 2050, the incidence of AMI is predicted to rise by 194.4% from 482 to 1418 per 100,000 population. The largest percentage increase in metabolic risk factors within the population with AMI is projected to be overweight/obesity (880.0% increase), followed by hypertension (248.7% increase), T2DM (215.7% increase), hyperlipidemia (205.0% increase), and active/previous smoking (164.8% increase). The number of AMI-related deaths is expected to increase by 294.7% in individuals with overweight/obesity, while mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.7% in hyperlipidemia, 29.9% in hypertension, 32.7% in T2DM and 49.6% in active/previous smokers, from 2025 to 2050. Compared with Chinese individuals, Indian and Malay individuals bear a disproportionate burden of overweight/obesity incidence and AMI-related mortality. Interpretation: The incidence of AMI is projected to continue rising in the coming decades. Overweight/obesity will emerge as fastest-growing metabolic risk factor and the leading risk factor for AMI-related mortality. Funding: This research was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03) and National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MOH-001131). The SMIR is a national, ministry-funded registry run by the National Registry of Diseases Office and funded by the Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Identifying and Solving Gaps in Pre- and In-Hospital Acute Myocardial Infarction Care in Asia-Pacific Countries.

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the Asia-Pacific region, and mortality rates differ between countries in the region. Systems of care have been shown to play a major role in determining AMI outcomes, and this review aims to highlight pre-hospital and in-hospital system deficiencies and suggest possible improvements to enhance quality of care, focusing on Korea, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia as representative countries. Time to first medical contact can be shortened by improving patient awareness of AMI symptoms and the need to activate emergency medical services (EMS), as well as by developing robust, well-coordinated and centralized EMS systems. Additionally, performing and transmitting pre-hospital electrocardiograms, algorithmically identifying patients with high risk AMI and developing hospital networks that appropriately divert such patients to percutaneous coronary intervention-capable hospitals have been shown to be beneficial. Within the hospital environment, developing and following clinical practice guidelines ensures that treatment plans can be standardised, whilst integrated care pathways can aid in coordinating care within the healthcare institution and can guide care even after discharge. Prescription of guideline directed medical therapy for secondary prevention and patient compliance to medications can be further optimised. Finally, the authors advocate for the establishment of more regional, national and international AMI registries for the formal collection of data to facilitate audit and clinical improvement.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Medical Decision-Making Roles and Their Associations with Patient Characteristics and Patient-Reported Outcomes among Patients with Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVE: Among patients with heart failure (HF), we examined 1) the evolution of patient involvement in decision making over 2 y, 2) the association of patient characteristics with decision-making roles, and 3) the association of decision-making roles with distress, spiritual well-being, and quality of physician communication. METHODS: We administered the survey every 4 mo over 24 mo to patients with New York Heart Association class 3/4 symptoms recruited from inpatient clinics. The decision-making roles were categorized as no patient involvement, physician/family-led, joint (with family and/or physicians), patient-led, or patient-alone decision making. The associations between patient characteristics and decision-making roles were assessed using a mixed-effects ordered logistic regression, whereas those between patient outcomes and decision-making roles were investigated using mixed-effects linear regressions. RESULTS: Of the 557 patients invited, 251 participated in the study. The most common roles in decision making at baseline assessment were "no involvement" (27.53%) and "patient-alone decision making" (25.10%). The proportions of different decision-making roles did not change over 2 y (P = 0.37). Older age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.97; P = 0.003) and being married (OR = 0.63; P = 0.035) were associated with lower involvement in decision making. Chinese ethnicity (OR = 1.91; P = 0.003), higher education (OR = 1.87; P = 0.003), awareness of terminal condition (OR = 2.00; P < 0.001), and adequate self-care confidence (OR = 1.74; P < 0.001) were associated with greater involvement. Compared with no patient involvement, joint (ß = -0.58; P = 0.026) and patient-led (ß = -0.59; P = 0.014) decision making were associated with lower distress, while family/physician-led (ß = 4.37; P = 0.001), joint (ß = 3.86; P < 0.001), patient-led (ß = 3.46; P < 0.001), and patient-alone (ß = 3.99; P < 0.001) decision making were associated with better spiritual well-being. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of patients was not involved in decision making. Patients should be encouraged to participate in decision making since it is associated with lower distress and better spiritual well-being. HIGHLIGHTS: The level of involvement in medical decision making did not change over time among patients with heart failure. A substantial proportion of patients were not involved in decision making throughout the 24-mo study period.Patients' involvement in decision making varied by age, ethnicity, education level, marital status, awareness of the terminal condition, and confidence in self-care.Compared with no patient involvement in decision making, joint and patient-led decision making were associated with lower distress, and any level of patient involvement in decision making was associated with better spiritual well-being.

Risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes using either fasting plasma glucose or HbA1c in Chinese, Malay, and Indians: Results from three multi-ethnic Singapore cohorts.

AIMS: To assess three well-established type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction models based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in Chinese, Malays, and Indians, and to develop simplified risk models based on either FPG or HbA1c. METHODS: We used a prospective multiethnic Singapore cohort to evaluate the established models and develop simplified models. 6,217 participants without T2D at baseline were included, with an average follow-up duration of 8.3 years. The simplified risk models were validated in two independent multiethnic Singapore cohorts (N = 12,720). RESULTS: The established risk models had moderate-to-good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, AUCs 0.762 - 0.828) but a lack of fit (P-values < 0.05). Simplified risk models that included fewer predictors (age, BMI, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and HbA1c or FPG) showed good discrimination in all cohorts (AUCs ≥ 0.810), and sufficiently captured differences between the ethnic groups. While recalibration improved fit the simplified models in validation cohorts, there remained evidence of miscalibration in Chinese (p ≤ 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Simplified risk models including HbA1c or FPG had good discrimination in predicting incidence of T2D in three major Asian ethnic groups. Risk functions with HbA1c performed as well as those with FPG.

Role of Invasive Strategy for Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have traditionally been excluded from randomized trials. We aimed to compare percutaneous coronary intervention versus conservative management, and early intervention (EI; within 24 hours of admission) versus delayed intervention (DI; after 24 to 72 hours of admission) in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and concomitant CKD. An electronic literature search was performed to search for studies comparing invasive management to conservative management or EI versus DI in patients with NSTEMI with CKD. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury (AKI) or dialysis, major bleeding, and recurrent MI. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome and odds ratios for secondary outcomes were pooled in random-effects meta-analyses. Eleven studies (140,544 patients) were analyzed. Invasive management was associated with lower mortality than conservative management (HR 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.67, p <0.001, I2 = 47%), with consistent benefit across all CKD stages, except CKD 5. There was no significant mortality difference between EI and DI, but subgroup analyses showed significant benefit for EI in stage 1 to 2 CKD (HR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.97, p = 0.03, I2 = 0%), with no significant difference in stage 3 and 4 to 5 CKD. Invasive strategy was associated with higher odds of AKI or dialysis and major bleeding, but lower odds of recurrent MI compared with conservative management. In conclusion, in patients with NSTEMI and CKD, an invasive strategy is associated with significant mortality benefit over conservative management in most patients with CKD, but at the expense of higher risk of AKI and bleeding. EI appears to benefit those with early stages of CKD. Trial Registration: PROSPERO CRD42023405491.