Differential Colonization and Mucus Ultrastructure Visualization in Bovine Ileal and Rectal Organoid-Derived Monolayers Exposed to Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli.

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) is a critical public health concern due to its role in severe gastrointestinal illnesses in humans, including hemorrhagic colitis and the life-threatening hemolytic uremic syndrome. While highly pathogenic to humans, cattle, the main reservoir for EHEC, often remain asymptomatic carriers, complicating efforts to control its spread. Our study introduces a novel method to investigate EHEC using organoid-derived monolayers from adult bovine ileum and rectum. These polarized epithelial monolayers were exposed to EHEC for four hours, allowing us to perform comparative analyses between the ileal and rectal tissues. Our findings mirrored in vivo observations, showing a higher colonization rate in the rectum compared with the ileum (44.0% vs. 16.5%, p < 0.05). Both tissues exhibited an inflammatory response with increased expression levels of TNF-a (p < 0.05) and a more pronounced increase of IL-8 in the rectum (p < 0.01). Additionally, the impact of EHEC on the mucus barrier varied across these gastrointestinal regions. Innovative visualization techniques helped us study the ultrastructure of mucus, revealing a net-like mucin glycoprotein organization. While further cellular differentiation could enhance model accuracy, our research significantly deepens understanding of EHEC pathogenesis in cattle and informs strategies for the preventative measures and therapeutic interventions.

Pathogen-epithelium interactions and inflammatory responses in Salmonella Dublin infections using ileal monolayer models derived from adult bovine organoids.

Salmonella enterica serovar Dublin (S. Dublin) is an important enteric pathogen affecting cattle and poses increasing public health risks. Understanding the pathophysiology and host-pathogen interactions of S. Dublin infection are critical for developing effective control strategies, yet studies are hindered by the lack of physiologically relevant in vitro models. This study aimed to generate a robust ileal monolayer derived from adult bovine organoids, validate its feasibility as an in vitro infection model with S. Dublin, and evaluate the epithelial response to infection. A stable, confluent monolayer with a functional epithelial barrier was established under optimized culture conditions. The model's applicability for studying S. Dublin infection was confirmed by documenting intracellular bacterial invasion and replication, impacts on epithelial integrity, and a specific inflammatory response, providing insights into the pathogen-epithelium interactions. The study underscores the utility of organoid-derived monolayers in advancing our understanding of enteric infections in livestock and highlights implications for therapeutic strategy development and preventive measures, with potential applications extending to both veterinary and human medicine. The established bovine ileal monolayer offers a novel and physiologically relevant in vitro platform for investigating enteric pathogen-host interactions, particularly for pathogens like S. Dublin.

Assessment of P-Glycoprotein Function Using Canine Intestinal Organoid-Derived Epithelial Interfaces.

P-glycoprotein (P-gp), a multidrug efflux pump encoded by the ABCB1 (formerly MDR1) gene, plays a crucial role in limiting drug absorption and eliminating toxic compounds in both humans and dogs. However, species-specific differences in P-gp substrates necessitate the development of canine-specific evaluation systems. Canine intestinal organoids derived monolayers offer a promising platform for studying drug transport, yet P-gp-mediated transport in these models remains unexplored.We generated canine colonoid-derived 2D monolayers to investigate ABCB1 gene expression and P-gp function. We employed widely recognized P-gp substrates, Rhodamine 123 and Doxorubicin, in conjunction with the P-gp inhibitor PSC833 at Days 5 and 10 of culture.A significant increase in gene expression of P-gp encoded by the ABCB1 was noted on Day 10 compared to Day 5 of culture. Dspite this disparity in gene expression, the transport activity of P-gp, as assessed by the efflux of Rhodamine 123 and Doxorubicin with PSC833 inhibition, did not exhibit significant differences between these two time points.Canine intestinal organoid-derived monolayers provide a valuable tool for investigating P-gp-mediated drug transport. These findings highlight the potential for predicting drug bioavailability and adverse reactions in veterinary medicine, aligning with principles of ethical and sustainable research.

Sex Differences in Bleeding Risk Associated With Antithrombotic Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Background: Antithrombotic therapy is crucial for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but women with CVD may face increased bleeding complications post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) under antithrombotic therapy. However, women are often underrepresented in clinical trials in this field, so evidence for sex-specific recommendations is lacking. Methods and Results: A search on PubMed was conducted for English-language articles addressing bleeding complications and antithrombotic therapy in women. Despite women potentially showing higher baseline platelet responsiveness than men, the clinical implications remain unclear. Concerning antiplatelet therapy post-PCI, although women have an elevated bleeding risk in the acute phase, no sex differences were observed in the chronic phase. However, women require specific considerations for factors such as age, renal function, and weight when determining the dose and duration of antiplatelet therapy. Regarding anticoagulation post-PCI, direct oral anticoagulants may pose a lower bleeding risk in women compared with warfarin. Concerning triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) post-PCI for patients with atrial fibrillation, there is a lack of evidence on whether sex differences should be considered in the duration and regimen of TAT. Conclusions: Recent findings on sex differences in post-PCI bleeding complications did not provide enough evidence to recommend specific therapies for women. Further studies are needed to address this gap and recommend optimal antithrombotic therapy post-PCI for women.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioural counselling intervention compared with non-intervention for adult patients with metabolic syndrome to prevent cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in Japan: a microsimulation modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting. DESIGN: A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon. SETTING: SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer's perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters. RESULTS: The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th-97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were -JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (-US$6226 to US$772) and -0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

High-fat diet enhances cell proliferation and compromises intestinal permeability in a translational canine intestinal organoid model.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence underscores the responsiveness of the mammalian intestine to dietary cues, notably through the involvement of LGR5 + intestinal stem cells in orchestrating responses to diet-driven signals. However, the effects of high-fat diet (HFD) on these cellular dynamics and their impact on gut integrity remain insufficiently understood. Our study aims to assess the multifaceted interactions between palmitic acid (PA), cell proliferation, and the intestinal epithelial barrier using a canine colonoid model. Canine models, due to their relevance in simulating human intestinal diseases, offer a unique platform to explore the molecular mechanisms underlying HFD derived intestinal dysfunction. RESULTS: Canine colonoids were subjected to PA exposure, a surrogate for the effects of HFD. This intervention revealed a remarkable augmentation of cell proliferative activity. Furthermore, we observed a parallel reduction in transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER), indicating altered epithelium barrier integrity. While E-cadherin exhibited consistency, ZO-1 displayed a noteworthy reduction in fluorescence intensity within the PA-exposed group. CONCLUSIONS: By employing canine intestinal organoid systems, we provide compelling insights into the impact of PA on intestinal physiology. These findings underscore the importance of considering both cell proliferative activity and epithelial integrity in comprehending the repercussions of HFDs on intestinal health. Our study contributes to a deeper understanding of the consequences of HFD on intestinal homeostasis, utilizing valuable translational in vitro models derived from dogs.

Accessible luminal interface of bovine rectal organoids generated from cryopreserved biopsy tissues.

Developing precise species-specific in vitro models that closely resemble in vivo intestinal tissues is essential for advancing our understanding of gastrointestinal physiology and associated diseases. This is especially crucial in examining host-pathogen interactions, particularly in bovines, a known reservoir for microbes and pathogens posing substantial public health threats. This research investigated the viability of producing bovine rectal organoids from cryopreserved tissues. We compared two cryopreservation methods with a traditional technique using fresh tissues, evaluating their effectiveness through growth rates, long-term viability, and comprehensive structural, cellular, and genetic analyses. These assessments utilized phase-contrast imaging, immunofluorescence imaging, and RT-qPCR assays. Additionally, the study developed a sophisticated method for forming a functional epithelial barrier from organoid-derived bovine rectal monolayers, incorporating a wide range of epithelial cells. This methodology employed transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER), parallel artificial membrane permeability assay (Papp), confocal microscopy, and advanced imaging techniques like scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Our findings decisively show that bovine rectal organoids can be effectively generated from cryopreserved biopsy tissues. Moreover, we formulated a robust and optimized protocol for creating functional rectal monolayers from these organoids. This significant progress is particularly relevant given the susceptibility of the bovine rectum to various enteric pathogens of public health concern, marking a vital step forward in veterinary and biomedical research. The creation of accurate species specific in vitro models that faithfully mimic in vivo intestinal tissues is critical for enhancing our understanding of gut physiology and related pathologies. This is particularly relevant in studying the interactions between hosts and microbes or pathogens with significant public health risks where bovine can be the major reservoir.

Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years. METHODS: We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. RESULTS: Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.

Assessment of cytochrome P450 induction in canine intestinal organoid models.

Understanding cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes in the canine intestine is vital for predicting drug metabolism and developing safer oral medications. This study evaluates canine colonoids as a model to assess the expression and induction of essential intestinal CYP enzymes.Canine colonoids were cultured in expansion medium (EM) with Wnt-3A and in differentiation medium (DM) without Wnt-3A. We assessed the mRNA expression of CYP2B11, CYP2C21, CYP3A12, and CYP3A98 using qPCR and examined the effects of rifampicin and phenobarbital as inducers.Our findings show that DM significantly increased the mRNA expression of CYP3A98 and CYP2B11, but not CYP3A12, compared to EM. CYP2C21, not typically expressed in the intestine, remained unexpressed in colonoids. Rifampicin induced CYP3A98, aligning with pregnane x receptor (PXR) regulation, while phenobarbital did not, suggesting no constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) involvement. CYP2B11 did not respond to either inducer, suggesting alternative regulatory pathways in canine colonoids.This study is a pioneering effort to establish conditions for studying P450 expression in canine colonoids, confirming significant CYP3A98 expression in the canine intestine. It demonstrated colonoids can induce CYP activity post drug treatments. Further research is needed to enhance species-specific drug metabolism understanding and validate this model for broader applications.

Three-Dimensional Morphogenesis in Canine Gut-on-a-Chip Using Intestinal Organoids Derived from Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients.

Canine intestines possess similarities in anatomy, microbiology, and physiology to those of humans, and dogs naturally develop spontaneous intestinal disorders similar to humans. Overcoming the inherent limitation of three-dimensional (3D) organoids in accessing the apical surface of the intestinal epithelium has led to the generation of two-dimensional (2D) monolayer cultures, which expose the accessible luminal surface using cells derived from the organoids. The integration of these organoids and organoid-derived monolayer cultures into a microfluidic Gut-on-a-Chip system has further evolved the technology, allowing for the development of more physiologically relevant dynamic in vitro intestinal models. In this study, we present a protocol for generating 3D morphogenesis of canine intestinal epithelium using primary intestinal tissue samples obtained from dogs affected by inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We also outline a protocol for generating and maintaining 2D monolayer cultures and intestine-on-a-chip systems using cells derived from the 3D intestinal organoids. The protocols presented in this study serve as a foundational framework for establishing a microfluidic Gut-on-a-Chip system specifically designed for canines. By laying the groundwork for this innovative approach, we aim to expand the application of these techniques in biomedical and translational research, aligning with the principles of the One Health Initiative. By utilizing this approach, we can develop more physiologically relevant dynamic in vitro models for studying intestinal physiology in both dogs and humans. This has significant implications for biomedical and pharmaceutical applications, as it can aid in the development of more effective treatments for intestinal diseases in both species.

Predicting incident heart failure from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol for a model development and validation study.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) is increasingly common and associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Treatment of HF can alter the disease trajectory and reduce clinical events in HF. However, many cases of HF remain undetected until presentation with more advanced symptoms, often requiring hospitalisation. Predicting incident HF is challenging and statistical models are limited by performance and scalability in routine clinical practice. An HF prediction model implementable in nationwide electronic health records (EHRs) could enable targeted diagnostics to enable earlier identification of HF. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will investigate a range of development techniques (including logistic regression and supervised machine learning methods) on routinely collected primary care EHRs to predict risk of new-onset HF over 1, 5 and 10 years prediction horizons. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation (training and testing) and the CPRD-AURUM dataset for external validation. Both comprise large cohorts of patients, representative of the population of England in terms of age, sex and ethnicity. Primary care records are linked at patient level to secondary care and mortality data. The performance of the prediction model will be assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. We will only use variables routinely accessible in primary care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 21_000324). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS: The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT05756127). A systematic review for the project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022380892).

The association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate and cognitive impairment: the Suita Study.

This cross-sectional study investigated the association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cognitive impairment. We used data from 6215 Japanese individuals registered in the Suita Study. Cognitive impairment was defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of ≤ 26. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of cognitive impairment for eGFR 45-59.9 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions) compared to eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (normal eGFR). The results showed that both mild and moderate-to-severe eGFR reductions were associated with cognitive impairment: ORs (95% CIs) = 1.49 (1.22-1.83) and 2.35 (1.69-3.26), respectively (p-trend < 0.001). Each increment of eGFR by 10 mL/min/1.73m2 was associated with 4.8% lower odds of cognitive impairment. In conclusion, eGFR reduction was associated with cognitive impairment. Managing CKD is essential for preventing cognitive impairment.

Common Carotid Artery Stenosis Degree as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Disease in a General Population: The Suita Study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of screening for the degree of common carotid artery (CCA) stenosis as a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a general population remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4775 Japanese men and women whose CCA was measured using bilateral carotid ultrasonography at baseline (April 1994-August 2001). We calculated the degree of stenosis as a percentage of the stenotic area of the lumen in the cross-section perpendicular to the long axis. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for incident CVD and its subtypes according to the degree of CCA stenosis. During the median 14.2 years of follow-up, 385 incident CVD events (159 coronary heart disease and 226 stroke) were documented. The degree of CCA stenosis was associated with increased risks of incident CVD, coronary heart disease, and stroke, with multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for <25%, 25%-49%, and ≥50% stenosis with plaque compared with no CCA plaque of 1.37 (1.07-1.76), 1.72 (1.23-2.40), and 2.49 (1.69-3.67), respectively. Adding the CCA stenosis degree to traditional CVD risk factors increased Harrell's C statistics (0.772 [95% CI, 0.751-0.794] to 0.778 [95% CI, 0.758-0.799]; P=0.04) and improved the 10-year risk prediction ability (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.0129 [95% CI, 0.0078-0.0179]; P<0.001; continuous net reclassification improvement, 0.1598 [95% CI, 0.0297-0.2881]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The degree of CCA stenosis may be used as a predictive marker for the development of CVD in the general population.

Inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the United Kingdom.

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability globally, with inequalities in burden and care delivery evident in Europe. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health-Europe convened experts from a range of countries to summarise the current state of knowledge on cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This Series paper presents evidence from nationwide secondary care registries and primary care healthcare records regarding inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the National Health Service (NHS) across the United Kingdom (UK) by age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location. Data suggest that women and older people less frequently receive guideline-recommended treatment than men and younger people. There are limited publications about ethnicity in the UK for the studied disease areas. Finally, there is inter-healthcare provider variation in cardiovascular care provision, especially for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, which is associated with differing outcomes for patients with the same disease. Providing equitable care is a founding principle of the UK NHS, which is well positioned to deliver innovative policy responses to reverse observed inequalities. Understanding differences in care may enable the implementation of appropriate strategies to mitigate differences in outcomes.

Prognosis, characteristics, and provision of care for patients with the unspecified heart failure electronic health record phenotype: a population-based linked cohort study of 95262 individuals.

Background: Whether the accuracy of the phenotype ascribed to patients in electronic health records (EHRs) is associated with variation in prognosis and care provision is unknown. We investigated this for heart failure (HF, characterised as HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF], HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and unspecified HF). Methods: We included individuals aged 16 years and older with a new diagnosis of HF between January 2, 1998 and February 28, 2022 from linked primary and secondary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England. We investigated the provision of guideline-recommended diagnostic investigations and pharmacological treatments. The primary outcome was a composite of HF hospitalisation or all-cause death, and secondary outcomes were time to HF hospitalisation, all-cause death and death from cardiovascular causes. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank tests to compare survival across HF phenotypes and adjusted for potential confounders in Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Findings: Of a cohort of 95,262 individuals, 1271 (1.3%) were recorded as having HFpEF, 10,793 (11.3%) as HFrEF and 83,198 (87.3%) as unspecified HF. Individuals recorded as unspecified HF were older with a higher prevalence of dementia. Unspecified HF, compared to patients with a recorded HF phenotype, were less likely to receive specialist assessment, echocardiography or natriuretic peptide testing in the peri-diagnostic period, or receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta blockers or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists up to 12 months after diagnosis (risk ratios compared to HFrEF, 0.64, 95% CI 0.63-0.64; 0.59, 0.58-0.60; 0.57, 0.55-0.59; respectively) and had significantly worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratios compared to HFrEF, HF hospitalisation and death 1.66, 95% CI 1.59-1.74; all-cause mortality 2.00, 1.90-2.10; cardiovascular death 1.77, 1.65-1.90). Interpretation: Our findings suggested that absence of specification of HF phenotype in routine EHRs is inversely associated with clinical investigations, treatments and survival, representing an actionable target to mitigate prognostic and health resource burden. Funding: Japan Research Foundation for Healthy Aging and British Heart Foundation.

Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates. CONCLUSIONS: After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.

Prediction models for heart failure in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate risk of incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of models. METHODS AND RESULTS: From inception to 3 November 2022 MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies of multivariable models derived, validated and/or augmented for HF prediction in community-based cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. We included 36 studies with 59 prediction models. In meta-analysis, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) risk score (summary c-statistic 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.883), GRaph-based Attention Model (GRAM; 0.791, 95% CI 0.677-0.885), Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) white men model (0.820, 95% CI 0.792-0.843), PCP-HF white women model (0.852, 95% CI 0.804-0.895), and REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN; 0.839, 95% CI 0.748-0.916) had a statistically significant 95% PI and excellent discrimination performance. The ARIC risk score and PCP-HF models had significant summary discrimination among cohorts with a uniform prediction window. 77% of model results were at high risk of bias, certainty of evidence was low, and no model had a clinical impact study. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models for estimating risk of incident HF in the community demonstrate excellent discrimination performance. Their usefulness remains uncertain due to high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence, and absence of clinical effectiveness research.

Serum cholesterol levels and the risk of brain natriuretic peptide-diagnosed heart failure in postmenopausal women: a population-based prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Hormonal changes during menopause can disturb serum cholesterol which is closely associated with cardiovascular disease. This study investigated the prospective association between serum cholesterol and heart failure (HF) risk in postmenopausal women. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1,307 Japanese women, aged 55 to 94 years. All women had no history of HF, and their baseline brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels were less than 100 pg/mL. During the follow-ups conducted every 2 years, HF was diagnosed among women who developed BNP of 100 pg/mL or greater. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% CI of HF for women per their baseline total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. The Cox regression models were adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking, alcohol drinking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiac murmurs, arrhythmia, stroke or ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, and lipid-lowering agent use. RESULTS: Within an 8-year median follow-up, 153 participants developed HF. In the multivariable-adjusted model, women with total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater (compared with 160-199 mg/dL) and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater (compared with 50-59 mg/dL) showed an increased risk of HF: hazard ratios (95% CI) = 1.70 (1.04-2.77) and 2.70 (1.10-6.64), respectively. The results remained significant after further adjusting for baseline BNP. No associations were observed with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Total cholesterol of 240 mg/dL or greater and HDL-C of 100 mg/dL or greater were positively associated with the risk of HF in postmenopausal Japanese women.

Incident cardiovascular, renal, metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified for risk-guided atrial fibrillation screening: a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Risk-guided atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may be an opportunity to prevent adverse events in addition to stroke. We compared events rates for new diagnoses of cardio-renal-metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified at higher versus lower-predicted AF risk. METHODS: From the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset, 2 January 1998-30 November 2018, we identified individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF. The risk of AF was estimated using the FIND-AF (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation) risk score. We calculated cumulative incidence rates and fit Fine and Gray's models at 1, 5 and 10 years for nine diseases and death adjusting for competing risks. RESULTS: Of 416 228 individuals in the cohort, 82 942 were identified as higher risk for AF. Higher-predicted risk, compared with lower-predicted risk, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease (cumulative incidence per 1000 persons at 10 years 245.2; HR 6.85, 95% CI 6.70 to 7.00; median time to event 5.44 years), heart failure (124.7; 12.54, 12.08 to 13.01; 4.06), diabetes mellitus (123.3; 2.05, 2.00 to 2.10; 3.45), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (118.9; 8.07, 7.80 to 8.34; 4.27), myocardial infarction (69.6; 5.02, 4.82 to 5.22; 4.32), peripheral vascular disease (44.6; 6.62, 6.28 to 6.98; 4.28), valvular heart disease (37.8; 6.49, 6.14 to 6.85; 4.54), aortic stenosis (18.7; 9.98, 9.16 to 10.87; 4.41) and death from any cause (273.9; 10.45, 10.23 to 10.68; 4.75). The higher-risk group constituted 74% of deaths from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes (8582 of 11 676). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals identified for risk-guided AF screening are at risk of new diseases across the cardio-renal-metabolic spectrum and death, and may benefit from interventions beyond ECG monitoring.