RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Patients achieving pathological complete response (pCR) post-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have a favorable prognosis. However, recurrence occurs in approximately 20-30% of all patients, with few studies evaluating their prognostic factors. We identified these prognostic factors, including inflammation-based markers, in patients with ESCC showing pCR after nCRT and surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with ESCC undergoing esophagectomy post-nCRT (January 2007-August 2017) were studied. Survival analysis evaluated 5-year overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk factors, including inflammation factors, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), were analyzed using Cox-proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Overall, 123patients participated herein. After a median follow-up duration of 67 months (44-86 months), 17 patients (12.3%) had recurrent disease. The 5-year OS and RFS rates were 71.6% and 68.0%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, older age ( ≥ 60 years) [hazard ratio (HR) 3.228, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.478-7.048, p = 0.003], higher pretreatment T stage (≥ T3; HR 2.563, 95% CI 1.335-4.922, p = 0.005), nonapplication of induction chemotherapy (HR 2.389, 95% CI 1.184-4.824, p = 0.015), and higher post-nCRT PLR (≥ 184.2; HR 2.896, 95% CI 1.547-5.420, p = 0.001) were poor independent prognostic factors for 5-year RFS. The patient group with three to four identified factors with poor outcomes exhibited a 5-year RFS rate of 46.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Significant prognostic factors include higher post-nCRT PLR, older age, higher clinical T stage, and nonapplication of induction chemotherapy. Identifying higher recurrence risk patients is crucial for tailored follow-up and treatment.