Enhancing clinical and public health interpretation of accelerometer-assessed physical activity with age-referenced values based on UK Biobank data.

BACKGROUND: Higher accelerometer-assessed volume and intensity of physical activity (PA) have been associated with a longer life expectancy but can be difficult to translate into recommended doses of PA. We aimed to: (a) improve interpretability by producing UK Biobank age-referenced centiles for PA volume and intensity; (b) inform public-health messaging by examining how adding recommended quantities of moderate and vigorous PA affect PA volume and intensity. METHODS: 92,480 UK Biobank participants aged 43-80 years with wrist-worn accelerometer data were included. Average acceleration and intensity gradient were derived as proxies for PA volume and intensity. We generated sex-specific centile curves using Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and modeled the effect of adding moderate (walking) or vigorous (running) activity on the combined change in the volume and intensity centiles (change in PA profile). RESULTS: In men, volume was lower as age increased while intensity was lower after age 55; in women, both volume and intensity were lower as age increased. Adding 150 min of moderate PA weekly (5 × 30 min walking) increased the PA profile by 4 percentage points. Defining moderate PA as brisk walking approximately doubled the increase (9 percentage points) while 75 min of vigorous PA weekly (5 × 15 min running) trebled the increase (13 percentage points). CONCLUSION: These UK Biobank reference centiles provide a benchmark for interpretation of accelerometer data. Application of our translational methods demonstrate that meeting PA guidelines through shorter duration vigorous activity is more beneficial to the PA profile (volume and intensity) than longer duration moderate activity.

Age at onset of type 2 diabetes and prevalence of vascular disease and heart failure: Systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

AIM: To investigate the relationship between age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and the risk of macrovascular disease, heart failure, and microvascular disease. METHODS: In August 2022, PubMed/EMBASE were searched for articles reporting (i) coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, amputation; (ii) heart failure; and (iii) retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy (albuminuria, chronic kidney disease [CKD], end-stage renal disease) by age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. Random effects, non-linear dose-response meta-analysis was undertaken for each outcome to assess the association with age at diagnosis (40 years = reference), using both crude and maximally adjusted odds ratios separately, with and without adjustment for current age (age at sampling). RESULTS: We identified 42 articles (230,003 to 3,465,590 participants; 1035 to 391,140 events). Age at diagnosis was positively associated with the risk of macrovascular diseases, heart failure, and CKD, independent of current age, and negatively associated with retinopathy. For other microvascular outcomes, when adjusting for current age, a "reverse U" relationship was observed (peak risk = 55-60 years). DISCUSSION: Retinopathy was negatively associated with age at diagnosis, highlighting the importance of retinopathy screening in early-onset type 2 diabetes. The implications of other associations were unclear due to the heterogeneity in methodologies and findings.

Glycaemic control is still central in the hierarchy of priorities in type 2 diabetes management.

A panel of primary care and diabetes specialists conducted focused literature searches on the current role of glycaemic control in the management of type 2 diabetes and revisited the evolution of evidence supporting the importance of early and intensive blood glucose control as a central strategy to reduce the risk of adverse long-term outcomes. The optimal approach to type 2 diabetes management has evolved over time as the evidence base has expanded from data from trials that established the role of optimising glycaemic control to recent data from cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) demonstrating organ-protective effects of newer glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs). The results from these CVOTs were derived mainly from people with type 2 diabetes and prior cardiovascular and kidney disease or multiple risk factors. In more recent years, earlier diagnosis in high-risk individuals has contributed to the large proportion of people with type 2 diabetes who do not have complications. In these individuals, a legacy effect of early and optimal control of blood glucose and cardiometabolic risk factors has been proven to reduce cardiovascular and kidney disease events and all-cause mortality. As there is a lack of RCTs investigating the potential synergistic effects of intensive glucose control and organ-protective effects of newer GLDs, this article re-evaluates the evolution of the scientific evidence and highlights the importance of integrating glycaemic control as a pivotal early therapeutic goal in most people with type 2 diabetes, while targeting existing cardiovascular and kidney disease. We also emphasise the importance of implementing multifactorial management using a multidisciplinary approach to facilitate regular review, patient empowerment and the possibility of tailoring interventions to account for the heterogeneity of type 2 diabetes.

Device-measured physical activity and cardiac structure by magnetic resonance.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although extreme cardiac adaptions mirroring phenotypes of cardiomyopathy have been observed in endurance athletes, adaptions to high levels of physical activity within the wider population are under-explored. Therefore, in this study, associations between device-measured physical activity and clinically relevant cardiac magnetic resonance volumetric indices were investigated. METHODS: Individuals without known cardiovascular disease or hypertension were included from the UK Biobank. Cardiac magnetic resonance data were collected between 2015 and 2019, and measures of end-diastolic chamber volume, left ventricular (LV) wall thickness, and LV ejection fraction were extracted. Moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA), vigorous-intensity physical activity (VPA), and total physical activity were assessed via wrist-worn accelerometers. RESULTS: A total of 5977 women (median age and MVPA: 62 years and 46.8 min/day, respectively) and 4134 men (64 years and 49.8 min/day, respectively) were included. Each additional 10 min/day of MVPA was associated with a 0.70 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 0.79] mL/m2 higher indexed LV end-diastolic volume (LVEDVi) in women and a 1.08 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.20) mL/m2 higher LVEDVi in men. However, even within the top decile of MVPA, LVEDVi values remained within the normal ranges [79.1 (95% CI: 78.3, 80.0) mL/m2 in women and 91.4 (95% CI: 90.1, 92.7) mL/m2 in men]. Associations with MVPA were also observed for the right ventricle and the left/right atria, with an inverse association observed for LV ejection fraction. Associations of MVPA with maximum or average LV wall thickness were not clinically meaningful. Results for total physical activity and VPA mirrored those for MVPA. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of device-measured physical activity were associated with cardiac remodelling within normal ranges.

Capturing How the Accelerometer Measured Physical Activity Profile Differs in People with Diabetic Foot Ulceration.

Diabetic Foot Ulcers (DFUs) are a major complication of diabetes, with treatment requiring offloading. This study aimed to capture how the accelerometer-assessed physical activity profile differs in those with DFUs compared to those with diabetes but without ulceration (non-DFU). Participants were requested to wear an accelerometer on their non-dominant wrist for up to 8days. Physical activity outcomes included average acceleration (volume), intensity gradient (intensity distribution), the intensity of the most active sustained (continuous) 5-120 min of activity (MXCONT), and accumulated 5-120 min of activity (MXACC). A total of 595 participants (non-DFU = 561, DFU = 34) were included in the analysis. Average acceleration was lower in DFU participants compared to non-DFU participants (21.9 mg [95%CI:21.2, 22.7] vs. 16.9 mg [15.3, 18.8], p < 0.001). DFU participants also had a lower intensity gradient, indicating proportionally less time spent in higher-intensity activities. The relative difference between DFU and non-DFU participants was greater for sustained activity (MXCONT) than for accumulated (MXACC) activity. In conclusion, physical activity, particularly the intensity of sustained activity, is lower in those with DFUs compared to non-DFUs. This highlights the need for safe, offloaded modes of activity that contribute to an active lifestyle for people with DFUs.

Interplay between physical activity volume and intensity with modeled life expectancy in women and men: A prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of research examining the interplay between objectively measured physical activity volume and intensity with life expectancy. METHODS: Individuals from UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer data were included. The average acceleration and intensity gradient were extracted to describe the physical activity volume and intensity profile. Mortality data were obtained from national registries. Adjusted life expectancies were estimated using parametric flexible survival models. RESULTS: 40,953 (57.1%) women (median age = 61.9 years) and 30,820 (42.9%) men (63.1 years) were included. Over a median follow-up of 6.9 years, there were 1719 (2.4%) deaths (733 in women; 986 in men). At 60 years, life expectancy was progressively longer for higher physical activity volume and intensity profiles, reaching 95.6 years in women and 94.5 years in men at the 90th centile for both volume and intensity, corresponding to 3.4 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 2.4-4.4) additional years in women and 4.6 (95%CI: 3.6-5.6) additional years in men compared to those at the 10th centiles. An additional 10-min or 30-min daily brisk walk was associated with 0.9 (95%CI: 0.5-1.3) and 1.4 (95%CI: 0.9-1.9) years longer life expectancy, respectively, in inactive women; and 1.4 (95%CI: 1.0-1.8) and 2.5 (95%CI: 1.9-3.1) years in inactive men. CONCLUSION: Higher physical activity volumes were associated with longer life expectancy, with a higher physical activity intensity profile further adding to a longer life. Adding as little as a 10-min brisk walk to daily activity patterns may result in a meaningful benefit to life expectancy.

Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by BMI levels in England, 2004-2019: a population-based primary care records study.

Background: In the UK, obesity rates are rising concurrently with declining mortality rates. Yet, there is limited research on the shifts of mortality trends and the impact of obesity-related mortality. In this study, we examine mortality trends and the cause-specific proportional composition of deaths by body mass index. Methods: We used primary healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2004 and 2019, linked to national death registration data. There were 880,683 individuals with at least one BMI measurement and a 5-year survival period. We used discrete Poisson regression and joinpoint analysis to estimate the all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate and significance of the trends. Findings: Between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, all-cause mortality rates declined in the obese category by 3% on average per year (from 23.3 to 14.6 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 2% on average per year (from 12.5 to 9.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in females. Cardiovascular disease mortality declined 7% on average per year (from 12.4 to 4.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 4% on average per year (from 5.5 to 3.0 deaths per 1000 person years) in females in the obese category. Increases in mortality rates from neurological conditions occurred in all BMI categories in males and females. By the end of the study, cancers became the primary contributor of death in males in all BMI categories and females in the overweight category. Interpretation: There have been significant declines in all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females, leading to a diversification of mortality, with cancers contributing to the highest proportion of deaths and increases in causes such as neurological and respiratory conditions. Further screening, prevention, and treatment implementation for a broader set of diseases is necessary for continued mortality improvements. Funding: Imperial College London, Science Foundation Ireland.

Diabetic foot disease carries an intrinsic high risk of mortality and other severe outcomes in type 2 diabetes: a propensity score-matched retrospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the association between diabetic foot disease (DFD) and the incidence of fatal and non-fatal events in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) from primary-care settings. METHODS: We built a cohort of people with a first DFD episode during 2010-2015, followed up until 2018. These subjects were 1 to 1 propensity score matched to subjects with T2DM without DFD. The incidence of all-cause mortality, the occurrence of new DFD, amputations, cardiovascular diseases, or composite outcome, including all-cause mortality and/or cardiovascular events during the follow-up period, were calculated. A Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to evaluate the hazard ratios (HR) for different events. RESULTS: Overall, 11,117 subjects with T2DM with a first episode of DFD were compared with subjects without DFD. We observed higher incidence rates (IRs) for composite outcome (33.9 vs. 14.5 IR per 100 person-years) and a new DFD episode event (22.2 vs. 1.1 IR per 100 person-years) in the DFD group. Compared to those without DFD, those with a first episode of DFD had a higher HR for all events, with excess rates particularly for amputation and new DFD occurrence (HR: 19.4, 95% CI: 16.7-22.6, HR: 15.1, 95% CI: 13.8-16.5, respectively) was found. CONCLUSIONS: Although DFD often coexists with other risk factors, it carries an intrinsic high risk of morbidity and mortality in individuals with T2DM. DFD should be regarded as a severe complication already at its onset, as it carries a poor clinical prognosis.

Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence among 22 million people in the UK over 20 years: population based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status, and its variation over time, in the UK during 2000-19. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: 1 650 052 individuals registered with a general practice contributing to Clinical Practice Research Datalink and newly diagnosed with at least one CVD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was incident diagnosis of CVD, comprising acute coronary syndrome, aortic aneurysm, aortic stenosis, atrial fibrillation or flutter, chronic ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, second or third degree heart block, stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, and unspecified), and venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Disease incidence rates were calculated individually and as a composite outcome of all 10 CVDs combined and were standardised for age and sex using the 2013 European standard population. Negative binomial regression models investigated temporal trends and variation by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: The mean age of the population was 70.5 years and 47.6% (n=784 904) were women. The age and sex standardised incidence of all 10 prespecified CVDs declined by 19% during 2000-19 (incidence rate ratio 2017-19 v 2000-02: 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88). The incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke decreased by about 30% (incidence rate ratios for acute coronary syndrome, chronic ischaemic heart disease, and stroke were 0.70 (0.69 to 0.70), 0.67 (0.66 to 0.67), and 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83), respectively). In parallel, an increasing number of diagnoses of cardiac arrhythmias, valve disease, and thromboembolic diseases were observed. As a result, the overall incidence of CVDs across the 10 conditions remained relatively stable from the mid-2000s. Age stratified analyses further showed that the observed decline in coronary heart disease incidence was largely restricted to age groups older than 60 years, with little or no improvement in younger age groups. Trends were generally similar between men and women. A socioeconomic gradient was observed for almost every CVD investigated. The gradient did not decrease over time and was most noticeable for peripheral artery disease (incidence rate ratio most deprived v least deprived: 1.98 (1.87 to 2.09)), acute coronary syndrome (1.55 (1.54 to 1.57)), and heart failure (1.50 (1.41 to 1.59)). CONCLUSIONS: Despite substantial improvements in the prevention of atherosclerotic diseases in the UK, the overall burden of CVDs remained high during 2000-19. For CVDs to decrease further, future prevention strategies might need to consider a broader spectrum of conditions, including arrhythmias, valve diseases, and thromboembolism, and examine the specific needs of younger age groups and socioeconomically deprived populations.

Differential associations of risk factors with severe and non-severe hypoglycaemia: the Hypoglycaemia Assessment Tool prospective observational study in people with insulin-treated type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To assess the differential association of risk factors with severe and non-severe hypoglycaemia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Hypoglycaemia Assessment Tool study evaluated the risk of hypoglycaemia over a 4-week period in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) on insulin in 24 countries. Negative binomial regressions were applied to examine the associations of several risk factors with severe and non-severe hypoglycaemia. RESULTS: The median age was 41 years in 5949 patients with T1D and 62 years in 12 914 patients with T2D. The 4-week rates of non-severe hypoglycaemic were 5.57 and 1.40 episodes per person in T1D and T2D, respectively; the corresponding rates for severe hypoglycaemia were 0.94 and 0.30. The excess risk was 42% higher for severe than non-severe hypoglycaemia in females versus males with T2D; 27% higher in patients with T2D with versus without a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM); and 47% lower in patients with T1D with versus without an insulin pump. The excess risk also differed across geographical areas and was marginally lower for severe than non-severe hypoglycaemia for higher values of HbA1c in patients with T2D. Associations with severity of hypoglycaemia were not different for age, diabetes and insulin therapy duration, previous hypoglycaemic episodes and insulin regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of severe versus non-severe hypoglycaemia differs in patients with T1D and T2D; sex, the use of a CGM and insulin pump, and geographical areas were differently associated with one type of hypoglycaemia than the other.

Mendelian randomisation and mediation analysis of self-reported walking pace and coronary artery disease.

The aim of this study was to assess the causal relationship between habitual walking pace and cardiovascular disease risk using a Mendelian randomisation approach. We performed both one- and two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses in a sample of 340,000 European ancestry participants from UK Biobank, applying a range of sensitivity analyses to assess pleiotropy and reverse causality. We used a latent variable framework throughout to model walking pace as a continuous exposure, despite being measured in discrete categories, which provided more robust and interpretable causal effect estimates. Using one-sample Mendelian randomisation, we estimated that a 1 mph (i.e., 1.6 kph) increase in self-reported habitual walking pace corresponds to a 63% (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.25-0.55, P = 2.0 × 10-6) reduction in coronary artery disease risk. Using conditional analyses, we also estimated that the proportion of the total effect on coronary artery disease mediated through BMI was 45% (95% CI 16-70%). We further validated findings from UK Biobank using two-sample Mendelian randomisation with outcome data from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium. Our findings suggest that interventions that seek to encourage individuals to walk more briskly should lead to protective effects on cardiovascular disease risk.

Association of ethnicity and socioeconomic status with health outcomes in women with gestational diabetes: Clinical practice research datalink cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate in women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), differences by ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the incidence of recurrent GDM, type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and depression. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study including 10,868 women diagnosed with GDM in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) between January 01, 2000 and November 05, 2018. Linked data were obtained for Hospital Episode Statistics and the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios, by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: During a follow-up of 58,479 person years (mean (SD): 5.38 (3.67) years), the crude incidence was 9.67 (95 % confidence interval: 9.30-10.00) per 100 person years for recurrent GDM, 3.86 (3.70-4.02) for depression, 2.15 (2.03-2.27) for T2D and 0.89 (0.81-0.97) for hypertension. South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of T2D compared to White (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.65; 1.34-2.05) and Black ethnicity was associated with a greater risk of hypertension (2.93; 1.93-4.46). Black and South Asian ethnicity were associated with a reduced risk of depression compared to White: 0.23 (0.13-0.39) and 0.37 (0.29-0.46), respectively. Incidence rates were higher for all conditions with increasing deprivation level. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of health complications in women with a prior history of GDM differs by ethnicity and socio-economic status, suggesting the opportunity for targeted assessment in the years following pregnancy. These findings may inform future guidelines on screening for health outcomes in women with GDM.

Effect of very long-term storage and multiple freeze and thaw cycles on 11-dehydro-thromboxane-B2 and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α, levels in human urine samples by validated enzyme immunoassays.

Biological samples are often frozen and stored for years and/or thawed multiple times, thus assessing their stability on long-term storage and repeated freeze-thaw cycles is crucial. The study aims were to assess:-the long-term stability of two major enzymatic and non-enzymatic metabolites of arachidonic acid, i.e. urinary 11-dehydro-thromboxane-(Tx) B2, 8-iso-prostaglandin (PG)F2α, and creatinine in frozen urine samples;-the effect of multiple freeze-thaw cycles. Seven-hundred and three urine samples measured in previously-published studies, stored at -40 °C, and measured for a second time for 11-dehydro-TxB2 (n = 677) and/or 8-iso-PGF2α (n = 114) and/or creatinine (n = 610) were stable over 10 years and the 2 measurements were highly correlated (all rho = 0.99, P < 0.0001). Urine samples underwent 10 sequential freeze-thaw cycles, with and without the antioxidant 4-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidin-1-oxyl (10 mM); urinary 11-dehydro-TxB2 and creatinine were stable across all cycles (11-dehydro-TxB2: 100.4 ± 21%; creatinine: 101 ± 7% of baseline at cycle ten; n = 17), while 8-iso-PGF2α significantly increased by cycle 6 (151 ± 22% of baseline at cycle ten, n = 17, P < 0.05) together with hydrogen peroxide only in the absence of antioxidant. Arachidonic acid metabolites and creatinine appear stable in human urines stored at -40 °C over 10 years. Multiple freeze-thaw cycles increase urinary 8-iso-PGF2α in urine samples without antioxidants. These data are relevant for studies using urine samples stored over long-term and/or undergoing multiple freezing-thawing.

Glycaemic control and macrovascular and microvascular outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of trials investigating intensive glucose-lowering strategies in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: We aimed to determine the macrovascular and microvascular outcomes of intensive versus standard glucose-lowering strategies in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and investigate the relationships between these outcomes and trial arm glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified relevant trials from MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and bibliographies up to August 2023. Macrovascular and microvascular outcomes, along with safety outcomes, were evaluated. Pooled study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and meta-regression was employed to analyse the relationships between outcomes and HbA1c reduction. RESULTS: We included 11 unique RCTs involving 51 469 patients with T2D (intensive therapy, N = 26 691; standard therapy, N = 24 778). Intensive versus standard therapy reduced the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.75-0.94) with no difference in the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (HR 0.97; 95% CI 0.92-1.03) and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Intensive versus standard therapy reduced the risk of retinopathy (HR 0.85; 0.78-0.93), nephropathy (HR 0.71; 0.58-0.87) and composite microvascular outcomes (HR 0.88; 0.77-1.00). Meta-regression analyses showed modest evidence of inverse linear relationships between HbA1c reduction and the outcomes of major adverse cardiovascular events, non-fatal MI, stroke and retinopathy, but these were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In people with T2D, intensive glucose control was associated with a reduced risk of non-fatal MI and several microvascular outcomes, particularly retinopathy and nephropathy. The lack of an effect of intensive glucose-lowering on most macrovascular outcomes calls for a more comprehensive approach to managing cardiovascular risk factors alongside glycaemic control.

Employment outcomes of people with Long Covid symptoms: community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the long-term employment consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection is lacking. We used data from a large, community-based sample in the UK to estimate associations between Long Covid and employment outcomes. METHODS: This was an observational, longitudinal study using a pre-post design. We included survey participants from 3 February 2021 to 30 September 2022 when they were aged 16-64 years and not in education. Using conditional logit modelling, we explored the time-varying relationship between Long Covid status ≥12 weeks after a first test-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (reference: pre-infection) and labour market inactivity (neither working nor looking for work) or workplace absence lasting ≥4 weeks. RESULTS: Of 206 299 participants (mean age 45 years, 54% female, 92% white), 15% were ever labour market inactive and 10% were ever long-term absent during follow-up. Compared with pre-infection, inactivity was higher in participants reporting Long Covid 30 to <40 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.45; 95% CI: 1.17-1.81] or 40 to <52 weeks (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.05-1.72) post-infection. Combining with official statistics on Long Covid prevalence, and assuming a correct statistical model, our estimates translate to 27 000 (95% CI: 6000-47 000) working-age adults in the UK being inactive because of Long Covid in July 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Long Covid is likely to have contributed to reduced participation in the UK labour market, though it is unlikely to be the sole driver. Further research is required to quantify the contribution of other factors, such as indirect health effects of the pandemic.

Translating trial results into interpretable risk estimates: Systematic analysis of cardiorenal outcome trials of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In a randomised controlled trial (RCT), the between-arm difference in the average probability of an event per unit of time (i.e., yearly incidence risk difference, YIRD) is an easy-to-interpret treatment effect metric. We aimed to quantify the YIRD in cardiorenal RCTs of GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is. METHODS AND RESULTS: We digitally searched for RCTs published up to March 1st, 2023, including subjects with type 2 diabetes randomised to GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is and investigating cardiorenal outcomes or death. We extracted information from Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots to obtain time-to-event individual data and estimate within-arm yearly incidence risk and YIRD. Data from 19 RCTs (28 kM plots) were analysed: comparing treatment to placebo, in GLP-1RA RCTs the YIRD ranged from 0.2 % (95 % CI: -0.7 %, 1.1 %) to -1.9 % (-3.1, -0.7), for primary outcome; and from -0.2 % (-0.5, 0.2) to -0.4 % (-0.7 %, -0.0 %), for mortality. With the exception of SOLOIST-WHF (YIRD 11.9 % for primary outcome), corresponding estimates in SGLT-2is RCTs were: from -0.1 % (-0.4, 0.1) to -5.0 % (-7.7, -2.6), for primary outcome; and from -0.1 % (-0.2, 0.1) to -1.9 % (-4.4 %, 0.6 %), for mortality. CONCLUSION: The YIRD metric complements other relative treatment effect estimates and helps quantify the absolute benefit of GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is.

Glycaemic control and macrovascular and microvascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes: Systematic review and meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials of novel glucose-lowering agents.

AIM: Using a systematic review and meta-analysis of placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) of newer glucose-lowering agents [sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is)] in type 2 diabetes (T2D), we aimed to determine the macrovascular and microvascular outcomes of these agents and clarify the relationships between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction and risk of these outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Randomized controlled trials were identified from MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library until September 2023. Study-specific hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled, and meta-regression was used to assess the relationships between outcomes and between trial arm HbA1c reductions. RESULTS: Twenty unique CVOTs (six SGLT-2is, nine GLP-1RAs, five DPP-4is), based on 169 513 participants with T2D, were eligible. Comparing SGLT-2is, GLP-1RAs and DPP-4is with placebo, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events were 0.88 (0.82-0.94), 0.85 (0.79-0.92) and 1.00 (0.94-1.06), respectively. SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs consistently reduced the risk of several macrovascular and microvascular complications, particularly kidney events. DPP-4is showed no macrovascular benefits. There was potential evidence of an inverse linear relationship between HbA1c reduction and 3-point major adverse cardiovascular event risk (estimated risk per 1% reduction in HbA1c: 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.06; p = .14; R2 = 14.2%), which was driven by the component of non-fatal stroke (R2 = 100.0%; p = .094). There were non-significant inverse linear relationships between HbA1c reduction and the risk of several vascular outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs showed consistent risk reductions in macrovascular and microvascular outcomes. The vascular benefits of SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in patients with T2D extend beyond mere glycaemic control.

Effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors on time to outcome in type 2 diabetes cardiorenal outcome trials.

INTRODUCTION: In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), treatment effects are commonly reported as hazard ratio, a measure often misinterpreted as a relative risk reduction. The acceleration factor (AF) indicates the extent to which a treatment increases/decreases the time before the occurrence of an outcome and gives useful insights in the interpretation of trials' results. METHODS: Using individual time-to-event data reconstructed from Kaplan-Meier plots, we estimated AFs for the primary outcomes (POs) and all-cause mortality in glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2-is) cardiorenal outcome trials in subjects with type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: AFs were estimated from 28 Kaplan-Meier plots of 19 RCTs. Compared to placebo, most GLP1-RAs increased the time before the onset of POs (from 9 % to 59 %) and all-cause mortality (from 8 to 13 %). Similarly, SGLT2-is increased time before the onset of POs (from 19 % to 87 %) and all-cause mortality (from 13 % to 42 %). CONCLUSIONS: The AFs provide a complementary and easier-to-interpret measure of treatment effect that could be useful to improve the shared decision-making.