Recent regional changes in nutrient fluxes of European surface waters.

We have quantified inputs and fate of nutrients in European fresh and marine waters from 1990 to 2018. We have used the conceptual model GREEN to assess the impact of efforts on curbing nutrient pollution in European regions. In the first two decades, i.e. in the 1990s and through the start of the new millennium, nutrient inputs to waters decreased significantly. Nutrient pollution in freshwaters and to the sea largely reduced in all regions, although at different pace. However, around 2008-2010 trends in nutrient inputs changed, marking an increase in the last decade, particularly from agricultural diffuse sources. In some regions, current nutrient inputs to waters are close to those estimated at the beginning of the 1990s. At the end of the study period, nutrient concentrations in freshwaters remain above thresholds congruent with good ecological status of water bodies in most downstream reaches. European policies tackling point sources are close to reach their maximum impact. In the face of this approaching ceiling, sustainable nutrient management on agricultural land becomes pivotal for effective nutrient control in river basins. The regional approach highlighted differences across Europe that may provide tailored opportunities to plan effective strategies for achieving environmental targets.

Probability maps of anthropogenic impacts affecting ecological status in European rivers.

Understanding how anthropogenic pressures affect river ecological status is pivotal to designing effective management strategies. Knowledge on river aquatic habitats status in Europe has increased tremendously since the introduction of the European Union Water Framework Directive, yet heterogeneities in mandatory monitoring and reporting still limit identification of patterns at continental scale. Concurrently, several model and data-based indicators of anthropogenic pressures to freshwater that cover the continent consistently have been developed. The objective of this work was to create European maps of the probability of occurrence of river conditions, namely failure to achieve good ecological status, or to be affected by specific pervasive impacts. To this end, we applied logistic regression methods to model the river conditions as functions of continental-scale water pressure indicators. The prediction capacity of the models varied with river condition: the probability to fail achieving good ecological status, and occurrence of nutrient and organic pollution were rather well predicted; conversely, chemical (other than nutrient and organic) pollution and alteration of habitats due to hydrological or morphological changes were poorly predicted. The most important indicators explaining river conditions were the shares of agricultural and artificial land, mean annual net abstractions, share of pollution loads from point sources, and the share of upstream river length uninterrupted by barriers. The probability of failing to achieve good ecological status was estimated to be high (>60%) for 36% of the considered river network of about 1.6 M km. Occurrence of impact of nutrient pollution was estimated high (>60%) in 26% of river length and that of organic pollution 20%. The maps are built upon information reported at country level pursuant EU legal obligations, as well as indicators generated from European scale models and data: both sources are affected by epistemic uncertainty. In particular, reported information depend on data collection scoping and schemes, as well as national knowledge and interpretation of river system pressures. In turn, water pressure indicators are affected by heterogeneous biases due to incomplete or incorrect inputs and uncertainty of models adopted. Lack of effective reach- and site-scale indicators may hamper detection of locally relevant impacts, for example in explaining alteration of habitats due to morphological changes. The probability maps provide a continental snapshot of current river conditions, and offer an alternative source of information on river aquatic habitats, which may help filling in knowledge gaps. Foremost, the analysis demonstrates the need for developing more effective continental-scale indicators for hydromorphological alterations and chemical pollution.

Domestic waste emissions to European waters in the 2010s.

Estimation of domestic waste emissions to waters is needed for pollution assessment and modelling. We assessed quantity and location of domestic waste emissions to European waters for the 2010s. Specifically, we considered discharges of domestic waste Population Equivalent (PE, the amount of waste that equals to 60 g per day of Biochemical Oxygen Demand), and mean annual loads (t/y) of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and 5-days Biochemical Oxygen Demand. The spatial resolution and extent of the analysis corresponded to the CCM2 River and Catchment Database for Europe, for catchments of mean area of 6.4 km2. The assessment is based on available European databases that allowed pinpointing waste emissions to a high spatial and conceptual resolution. Content gaps, particularly concerning domestic waste from isolated dwellings, were filled through alternative sources of information, exploiting population density and national statistics data. The dataset is of interest for assessing waste emissions to and fate through European fresh and marine waters also beyond the three pollutants evaluated in this study.

Predicting biochemical oxygen demand in European freshwater bodies.

Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) is an indicator of organic pollution in freshwater bodies correlated to microbiological contamination. High BOD concentrations reduce oxygen availability, degrade aquatic habitats and biodiversity, and impair water use. High BOD loadings to freshwater systems are mainly coming from anthropogenic sources, comprising domestic and livestock waste, industrial emissions, and combined sewer overflows. We developed a conceptual model (GREEN+BOD) to assess mean annual current organic pollution (BOD fluxes) across Europe. The model was informed with the latest available European datasets of domestic and industrial emissions, population and livestock densities. Model parameters were calibrated using 2008-2012 mean annual BOD concentrations measured in 2157 European monitoring stations, and validated with other 1134 stations. The most sensitive model parameters were abatement of BOD by secondary treatment and the BOD decay exponent of travel time. The mean BOD concentrations measured in monitored stations was 2.10 mg O2/L and predicted concentrations were 2.54 mg O2/L; the 90th percentile of monitored BOD concentration was 3.51 mg O2/L while the predicted one was 4.76 mg O2/L. The model could correctly classify reaches for BOD concentrations classes, from high to poor quality, in 69% of cases. High overestimations (incorrect classification by 2 or more classes) were 2% and large underestimations were 5% of cases. Across Europe about 12% of freshwater network was estimated to be failing good quality due to excessive BOD concentrations (>5 mg O2/L). Dominant sources of BOD to freshwaters and seas were point sources and emissions from intensive livestock systems. Comparison with previous assessments confirms a decline of BOD pollution since the introduction of EU legislation regulating water pollution.