Development and validation of a simple web-based tool for early prediction of COVID-19-associated death in kidney transplant recipients.

This analysis, using data from the Brazilian kidney transplant (KT) COVID-19 study, seeks to develop a prediction score to assist in COVID-19 risk stratification in KT recipients. In this study, 1379 patients (35 sites) were enrolled, and a machine learning approach was used to fit models in a derivation cohort. A reduced Elastic Net model was selected, and the accuracy to predict the 28-day fatality after the COVID-19 diagnosis, assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), was confirmed in a validation cohort. The better calibration values were used to build the applicable ImAgeS score. The 28-day fatality rate was 17% (n = 235), which was associated with increasing age, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, higher body mass index, dyspnea, and use of mycophenolate acid or azathioprine. Higher kidney graft function, longer time of symptoms until COVID-19 diagnosis, presence of anosmia or coryza, and use of mTOR inhibitor were associated with reduced risk of death. The coefficients of the best model were used to build the predictive score, which achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.767 (95% CI 0.698-0.834) in the validation cohort. In conclusion, the easily applicable predictive model could assist health care practitioners in identifying non-hospitalized kidney transplant patients that may require more intensive monitoring. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04494776.

High mortality among kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019: Results from the Brazilian multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplant (KT) recipients are considered a high-risk group for unfavorable outcomes in the course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). AIM: To describe the clinical aspects and outcomes of COVID-19 among KT recipients. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study enrolled 1,680 KT recipients diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and November 2020, from 35 Brazilian centers. The main outcome was the 90-day cumulative incidence of death, for the entire cohort and according to acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement. Fatality rates were analyzed according to hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mechanical ventilation (MV) requirement. Multivariable analysis was performed by logistic regression for the probability of hospitalization and death. RESULTS: The median age of the recipients was 51.3 years, 60.4% were men and 11.4% were Afro-Brazilian. Comorbidities were reported in 1,489 (88.6%), and the interval between transplantation and infection was 5.9 years. The most frequent symptoms were cough (54%), myalgia (40%), dyspnea (37%), and diarrhea (31%), whereas the clinical signs were fever (61%) and hypoxemia (13%). Hospitalization was required in 65.1%, and immunosuppressive drugs adjustments were made in 74.4% of in-hospital patients. ICU admission was required in 34.6% and MV in 24.9%. In the multivariable modeling, the variables related with the probability of hospitalization were age, hypertension, previous cardiovascular disease, recent use of high dose of steroid, and fever, dyspnea, diarrhea, and nausea or vomiting as COVID-19 symptoms. On the other hand, the variables that reduced the probability of hospitalization were time of COVID-19 symptoms, and nasal congestion, headache, arthralgia and anosmia as COVID-19 symptoms. The overall 90-day cumulative incidence of death was 21.0%. The fatality rates were 31.6%, 58.2%, and 75.5% in those who were hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, and required MV, respectively. At the time of infection, 23.2% had AKI and 23.4% required RRT in the follow-up. The cumulative incidence of death was significantly higher among recipients with AKI (36.0% vs. 19.1%, P < 0.0001) and in those who required RRT (70.8% vs. 10.1%, P < 0.0001). The variables related with the probability of death within 90 days after COVID-19 were age, time after transplantation, presence of hypertension, previous cardiovascular disease, use of tacrolimus and mycophenolate, recent use of high dose of steroids, and dyspnea as COVID-19 symptom. On the other hand, the variables that reduced the risk of death were time of symptoms, and headache and anosmia as COVID-19 symptoms. CONCLUSION: The patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were long-term KT recipients and most of them had some comorbidities. One in every five patients died, and the rate of death was significantly higher in those with AKI, mainly when RRT was required.

Randomized Trial of Machine Perfusion Versus Cold Storage in Recipients of Deceased Donor Kidney Transplants With High Incidence of Delayed Graft Function.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the use of static cold storage versus continuous hypothermic machine perfusion in a cohort of kidney transplant recipients at high risk for delayed graft function (DGF). METHODS: In this national, multicenter, and controlled trial, 80 pairs of kidneys recovered from brain-dead deceased donors were randomized to cold storage or machine perfusion, transplanted, and followed up for 12 months. The primary endpoint was the incidence of DGF. Secondary endpoints included the duration of DGF, hospital stay, primary nonfunction, estimated glomerular filtration rate, acute rejection, and allograft and patient survivals. RESULTS: Mean cold ischemia time was high but not different between the 2 groups (25.6 ± 6.6 hours vs 25.05 ± 6.3 hours, 0.937). The incidence of DGF was lower in the machine perfusion compared with cold storage group (61% vs. 45%, P = 0.031). Machine perfusion was independently associated with a reduced risk of DGF (odds ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.95). Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate tended to be higher at day 28 (40.6 ± 19.9 mL/min per 1.73 m2 vs 49.0 ± 26.9 mL/min per 1.73 m2; P = 0.262) and 1 year (48.3 ± 19.8 mL/min per 1.73 m2 vs 54.4 ± 28.6 mL/min per 1.73 m2; P = 0.201) in the machine perfusion group. No differences in the incidence of acute rejection, primary nonfunction (0% vs 2.5%), graft loss (7.5% vs 10%), or death (8.8% vs 6.3%) were observed. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of recipients of deceased donor kidneys with high mean cold ischemia time and high incidence of DGF, the use of continuous machine perfusion was associated with a reduced risk of DGF compared with the traditional cold storage preservation method.