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1.
J Vis Exp ; (200)2023 10 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37902337

RESUMO

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures, partially correlated with genetic origin, affecting over 70 million individuals worldwide. Despite the clinical importance of epilepsy, the functional analysis of neural activity in the central nervous system is still to be developed. Recent advancements in imaging technology, in combination with stable expression of genetically encoded calcium indicators, such as GCaMP6, have revolutionized the study of epilepsy at both brain-wide and single-cell resolution levels. Drosophila melanogaster has emerged as a tool for investigating the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying epilepsy due to its sophisticated molecular genetics and behavioral assays. In this study, we present a novel and efficient protocol for ex vivo calcium imaging in GCaMP6-expressing adult Drosophila to monitor epileptiform activities. The whole brain is prepared from cac, a well-known epilepsy gene, knockdown flies for calcium imaging with a confocal microscope to identify the neural activity as a follow-up to the bang-sensitive seizure-like behavior assay. The cac knockdown flies showed a higher rate of seizure-like behavior and abnormal calcium activities, including more large spikes and fewer small spikes than wild-type flies. The calcium activities were correlated to seizure-like behavior. This methodology serves as an efficient methodology in screening the pathogenic genes for epilepsy and exploring the potential mechanism of epilepsy at the cellular level.


Assuntos
Drosophila , Epilepsia , Animais , Humanos , Drosophila melanogaster/genética , Cálcio , Epilepsia/diagnóstico por imagem , Epilepsia/genética , Convulsões/patologia
2.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ; 14: 1165825, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37529615

RESUMO

Introduction: It has been established that UBR4 encodes E3 ubiquitin ligase, which determines the specificity of substrate binding during protein ubiquitination and has been associated with various functions of the nervous system but not the reproductive system. Herein, we explored the role of UBR4 on fertility with a Drosophila model. Methods: Different Ubr4 knockdown flies were established using the UAS/GAL4 activating sequence system. Fertility, hatchability, and testis morphology were studied, and bioinformatics analyses were conducted. Our results indicated that UBR4 deficiency could induce male sterility and influent egg hatchability in Drosophila. Results: We found that Ubr4 deficiency affected the testis during morphological analysis. Proteomics analysis indicated 188 upregulated proteins and 175 downregulated proteins in the testis of Ubr4 knockdown flies. Gene Ontology analysis revealed significant upregulation of CG11598 and Sfp65A, and downregulation of Pelota in Ubr4 knockdown flies. These proteins were involved in the biometabolic or reproductive process in Drosophila. These regulated proteins are important in testis generation and sperm storage promotion. Bioinformatics analysis verified that UBR4 was low expressed in cryptorchidism patients, which further supported the important role of UBR4 in male fertility. Discussion: Overall, our findings suggest that UBR4 deficiency could promote male infertility and may be involved in the protein modification of UBR4 by upregulating Sfp65A and CG11598, whereas downregulating Pelota protein expression.


Assuntos
Proteínas de Drosophila , Infertilidade Masculina , Humanos , Animais , Masculino , Drosophila , Testículo/metabolismo , Proteínas de Drosophila/genética , Proteínas de Drosophila/metabolismo , Sêmen/metabolismo , Infertilidade Masculina/genética , Infertilidade Masculina/metabolismo , Proteínas de Ligação a Calmodulina/metabolismo , Ubiquitina-Proteína Ligases/genética
3.
Front Mol Neurosci ; 16: 1121877, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37152436

RESUMO

Introduction: With the advent of trio-based whole-exome sequencing, the identification of epilepsy candidate genes has become easier, resulting in a large number of potential genes that need to be validated in a whole-organism context. However, conducting animal experiments systematically and efficiently remains a challenge due to their laborious and time-consuming nature. This study aims to develop optimized strategies for validating epilepsy candidate genes using the Drosophila model. Methods: This study incorporate behavior, morphology, and electrophysiology for genetic manipulation and phenotypic examination. We utilized the Gal4/UAS system in combination with RNAi techniques to generate loss-of-function models. We performed a range of behavioral tests, including two previously unreported seizure phenotypes, to evaluate the seizure behavior of mutant and wild-type flies. We used Gal4/UAS-mGFP flies to observe the morphological alterations in the brain under a confocal microscope. We also implemented patch-clamp recordings, including a novel electrophysiological method for studying synapse function and improved methods for recording action potential currents and spontaneous EPSCs on targeted neurons. Results: We applied different techniques or methods mentioned above to investigate four epilepsy-associated genes, namely Tango14, Klp3A, Cac, and Sbf, based on their genotype-phenotype correlation. Our findings showcase the feasibility and efficiency of our screening system for confirming epilepsy candidate genes in the Drosophila model. Discussion: This efficient screening system holds the potential to significantly accelerate and optimize the process of identifying epilepsy candidate genes, particularly in conjunction with trio-based whole-exome sequencing.

4.
BMC Pulm Med ; 22(1): 416, 2022 Nov 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36368963

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have confirmed that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with respiratory disease mortality. However, due to the differences in PM2.5 concentration, composition and population susceptibility within different regions, the estimates of the association between PM2.5 concentration and mortality are different. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential hazard of excessive PM2.5 exposure in terms of respiratory disease mortality. METHODS: Daily recorded data on meteorological indices, environmental pollutants, and causes of death data in Changsha from January 2015 to December 2018 were obtained. The potential relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and respiratory disease mortality was determined using distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), which includes the relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (CRR) of the lagged effect. The synergistic effects of other air pollutants were also considered. RESULTS: A total of 8,825 cases of respiratory disease mortality occurred in Changsha between 2015 and 2018. The acute effect of PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increased risk of respiratory disease mortality. Regarding the lag specific effect, a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration on respiratory disease mortality was statistically significant at lag day 0 and lag day 7 with a relative risk of 1.019 (95% CI 1.007- 1.031) and 1.013(95%CI: 1.002-1.024). As for the cumulative lag effect, a 4-day moving average of PM2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with a cumulative relative risk of 1.027 (95%CI: 1.011-1.031). The single-day lag effect and cumulative 4-day lag effect for male individuals were more significant than those observed in females. The effect of PM2.5 concentrations and respiratory disease mortality remained statistically significant in the multi-pollutant models (SO2, NO2, and O3). A higher risk was observed in the cold season than in the warm season. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a potential association between exposure to PM2.5 concentration and respiratory disease mortality in Changsha, with male individuals observed to have particularly higher risk.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluentes Ambientais , Transtornos Respiratórios , Doenças Respiratórias , Feminino , Masculino , Humanos , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , China/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos
5.
Lancet Microbe ; 3(11): e824-e834, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36115379

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The H3N8 avian influenza virus (AIV) has been circulating in wild birds, with occasional interspecies transmission to mammals. The first human infection of H3N8 subtype occurred in Henan Province, China, in April, 2022. We aimed to investigate clinical, epidemiological, and virological data related to a second case identified soon afterwards in Hunan Province, China. METHODS: We analysed clinical, epidemiological, and virological data for a 5-year-old boy diagnosed with H3N8 AIV infection in May, 2022, during influenza-like illness surveillance in Changsha City, Hunan Province, China. H3N8 virus strains from chicken flocks from January, 2021, to April, 2022, were retrospectively investigated in China. The genomes of the viruses were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis of all the eight gene segments. We evaluated the receptor-binding properties of the H3N8 viruses by using a solid-phase binding assay. We used sequence alignment and homology-modelling methods to study the effect of specific mutations on the human receptor-binding properties. We also conducted serological surveillance to detect the H3N8 infections among poultry workers in the two provinces with H3N8 cases. FINDINGS: The clinical symptoms of the patient were mild, including fever, sore throat, chills, and a runny nose. The patient's fever subsided on the same day of hospitalisation, and these symptoms disappeared 7 days later, presenting mild influenza symptoms, with no pneumonia. An H3N8 virus was isolated from the patient's throat swab specimen. The novel H3N8 virus causing human infection was first detected in a chicken farm in Guangdong Province in December, 2021, and subsequently emerged in several provinces. Sequence analyses revealed the novel H3N8 AIVs originated from multiple reassortment events. The haemagglutinin gene could have originated from H3Ny AIVs of duck origin. The neuraminidase gene belongs to North American lineage, and might have originated in Alaska (USA) and been transferred by migratory birds along the east Asian flyway. The six internal genes had originated from G57 genotype H9N2 AIVs that were endemic in chicken flocks. Reassortment events might have occurred in domestic ducks or chickens in the Pearl River Delta area in southern China. The novel H3N8 viruses possess the ability to bind to both avian-type and human-type sialic acid receptors, which pose a threat to human health. No poultry worker in our study was positive for antibodies against the H3N8 virus. INTERPRETATION: The novel H3N8 virus that caused human infection had originated from chickens, a typical spillover. The virus is a triple reassortment strain with the Eurasian avian H3 gene, North American avian N8 gene, and dynamic internal genes of the H9N2 viruses. The virus already possesses binding ability to human-type receptors, though the risk of the H3N8 virus infection in humans was low, and the cases are rare and sporadic at present. Considering the pandemic potential, comprehensive surveillance of the H3N8 virus in poultry flocks and the environment is imperative, and poultry-to-human transmission should be closely monitored. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hunan Provincial Innovative Construction Special Fund: Emergency response to COVID-19 outbreak, Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Health Department, and the Hunan Provincial Health Commission Foundation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N8 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H9N2 , Influenza Aviária , Influenza Humana , Humanos , Animais , Pré-Escolar , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N8/genética , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Galinhas , Aves Domésticas , Patos , Mamíferos
7.
Infect Dis (Lond) ; 52(1): 39-44, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31596157

RESUMO

Objectives: By adopting a new method, this study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in nine districts and counties (cities) of Changsha City, China, from 2009 to 2017.Methods: The reported HFMD cases were collected in Changsha from 2009 to 2017. The traditional descriptive method and a new method (index system) including six indices (richness index N, Simpson diversity index D, Shannon diversity index H, Berger-Parker dominance index d, Shannon evenness index E, and Morisita-Horn similarity index C) were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Changsha.Results: There were 214155 HFMD reported in Changsha during the study period. The incidence of the disease was higher in even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) than in uneven-numbered years (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017), with two peaks in May to June and October to November every year. The age of onset was mainly from 0 to 5 years old, and the death was mainly from 0 to 2 years old. According to occupational classification, districts and counties (cities) had a high degree of similarity of the composition of HFMD, and there was no regional difference.Conclusions: Changsha had a yearly increasing trend of HFMD from 2009 to 2017, and the key population for prevention and control was children aged in 0-5 years old. Seasonal distribution of high incidence and peak incidence were occurred in even-numbered years. The sub-regions of the city shared moderate diversity and high similarity of occupational distribution of HFMD.


Assuntos
Doença de Mão, Pé e Boca/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino
9.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 825, 2019 Sep 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31533638

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease. METHODS: The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2016, there were 3,551,917 outpatients monitored by the ISS system, among whom 126,076 were influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, with the ILI proportion (ILI%) of 3.55%. After the HIS was used, the reported incident cases of ILI and ILI% were increased significantly. From March, 2009 to September, 2016, there were 5,491,560 inpatient cases monitored by the PSS system, among which 362,743 were pneumonia cases, with a proportion of 6.61%. Among pneumonia cases, about 10.55% (38,260/362,743) of cases were severe or death cases. The pneumonia incidence increased each year in the city. Among 15 avian influenza cases reported from January, 2005 to September, 2016, there were 26.7% (4/15) mild cases detected by the HIS-modified ISS system, while 60.0% (9/15) were severe or death cases detected by the PSS system. Two H5N1 severe cases were missed by the ISS system in January, 2009 when the PSS system was not available. CONCLUSIONS: The HIS was able to improve the efficiency of the ISS for monitoring ILI and emerging avian influenza virus. However, the efficiency of the system needs to be verified in a wider area for a longer time span in China.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana/diagnóstico , Pneumonia/diagnóstico , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , China/epidemiologia , Hospitais , Humanos , Incidência , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/isolamento & purificação , Subtipo H7N9 do Vírus da Influenza A/isolamento & purificação , Vírus da Influenza A/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Gestão de Riscos
11.
J Int Med Res ; 46(8): 3462-3467, 2018 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29896990

RESUMO

Three cases of the avian influenza A (H9N2) virus have been documented in Changsha, which is a large city that has nine districts and a population of 7.04 million in central South China. Among these patients, one was a girl and two were boys. The ages of the patients were 9 months, 2 years, and 15 years. Two cases of H9N2 were detected in September, 2015 and one was detected in 2017. Two patients were children who had not reached the age for kindergarten and one was a student. These three cases were all mild and were detected in a sentinel hospital of the Chinese Influenza Surveillance System. We describe the clinical and epidemiological features of the youngest patient with H9N2 in 2017 and the surveillance results of the H9N2 virus in live poultry markets in Changsha. From January 2014 to December 2017, 4212 samples were collected in live poultry markets in Changsha, among which 25.81% (1087/4212) were H9N2-positive. Public health concerns should be addressed for emerging H9N2 virus infection, and more strategies should be performed before this virus mutates to be more transmissible and highly pathogenic.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Indústria Alimentícia , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H9N2/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/diagnóstico , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Aves Domésticas/virologia , Adolescente , Animais , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Influenza Aviária/diagnóstico , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Influenza Humana/terapia , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Masculino , Saúde Pública , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/virologia
12.
PLoS One ; 11(11): e0166180, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27880774

RESUMO

We collected 2768 Influenza-like illness emergency public health incidents from April 1, 2005 to November 30, 2013reported in the Emergency Public Reporting System. After screening by strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, there were 613 outbreaks analyzed with susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model in order to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic individuals (p) and the effective reproduction number (Rt). The relation between Rt and viral subtypes, regions, outbreak sites, populations, and seasons were analyzed. The mean values of p of different subtypes ranged from 0.09 to 0.15, but could be as high as up to 0.94. Different subtypes, provinces, regions, and sites of outbreak had statistically significantly different Rt. In particular, the southern region also manifested different Rt by affected population size and seasonality. Our results provide China and also the rest of the world a reference to understand characteristics of transmission and develop prevention and control strategies.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana/transmissão , China/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Orthomyxoviridae/classificação , Orthomyxoviridae/isolamento & purificação , Vigilância da População , Estações do Ano
13.
PLoS One ; 11(4): e0152990, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27043134

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Being HIV-infected is a stressful experience for many individuals. To assess HIV-related stress in the Chinese context, a measure with satisfied psychometric properties is yet underdeveloped. This study aimed to examine the psychometric characteristics of a simplified Chinese version of the HIV/AIDS Stress Scale (SS-HIV) among people living with HIV/AIDS in central China. METHOD: A total of 667 people living with HIV (92% were male) were recruited from March 1st 2014 to August 31th 2015 by consecutive sampling. A standard questionnaire package containing the Chinese HIV/AIDS Stress Scale (CSS-HIV), the Chinese Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Chinese Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) were administered to all participants, and 38 of the participants were selected randomly to be re-tested in four weeks after the initial testing. RESULTS: Our data supported that a revised 17-item CSS-HIV had adequate psychometric properties. It consisted of 3 factors: emotional stress (6 items), social stress (6 items) and instrumental stress (5 items). The overall Cronbach's α was 0.906, and the test-retest reliability coefficient was 0.832. The revised CSS-HIV was significantly correlated with the number of HIV-related symptoms, as well as scores on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7, indicating acceptable concurrent validity. CONCLUSION: The 17-item Chinese version of the SS-HIV has potential research and clinical utility in identifying important stressors among the Chinese HIV-infected population and in understanding the effects of stress on adjustment to HIV.


Assuntos
Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/psicologia , Povo Asiático/psicologia , Comparação Transcultural , Cultura , Infecções por HIV/psicologia , Estresse Psicológico , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vigilância da População , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
14.
Infect Genet Evol ; 40: 236-242, 2016 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26973295

RESUMO

A human infection with novel avian influenza A H5N6 virus emerged in Changsha city, China in February, 2014. This is the first detected human case among all human cases identified from 2014 to early 2016. We obtained and summarized clinical, epidemiological, and virological data from this patient. Complete genome of the virus was determined and compared to other avian influenza viruses via the construction of phylogenetic trees using the neighbor-joining approach. A girl aged five and half years developed fever and mild respiratory symptoms on Feb. 16, 2014 and visited hospital on Feb. 17. Throat swab specimens were obtained from the patient and a novel reassortant avian influenza A H5N6 virus was detected. All eight viral gene segments were of avian origin. The hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene segments were closely related to A/duck/Sichuan/NCXN11/2014(H5N1) and A/chicken/Jiangxi/12782/2014(H10N6) viruses, respectively. The six internal genes were homologous to avian influenza A (H5N2) viruses isolated in duck from Jiangxi in China. This H5N6 virus has not gained genetic mutations necessary for human infection and was suggested to be sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, but resistant to adamantanes. Epidemiological investigation of the exposure history of the patient found that a live poultry market could be the source place of infection and the incubation period was 2-5days. This novel reassortant Avian influenza A(H5N6) virus could be low pathogenic in humans. The prevalence and genetic evolution of this virus should be closely monitored.


Assuntos
Vírus da Influenza A/classificação , Vírus da Influenza A/genética , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/virologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Substituição de Aminoácidos , Animais , Aves , Galinhas , China/epidemiologia , Evolução Molecular , Genes Virais , Genoma Viral , Humanos , Influenza Humana/diagnóstico , Influenza Humana/tratamento farmacológico , Filogenia , RNA Viral , Vírus Reordenados
15.
PLoS One ; 10(7): e0132588, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26161740

RESUMO

During the early stage of a pandemic, isolation is the most effective means of controlling transmission. However, the effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies is not clear; especially little information is available concerning their effectiveness in China. Epidemiological and serological survey data in the city of Changsha were employed to estimate key model parameters. The average infectious period (date of recovery-date of symptom onset) of influenza A (H1N1) was 5.2 days. Of all infected persons, 45.93% were asymptomatic. The basic reproduction number of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was 1.82. Based on the natural history of influenza A (H1N1), we built an extended susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model, taking age groups: 0-5, 6-14, 15-24, 25-59, and ≥60 years into consideration for isolation. Without interventions, the total attack rates (TARs) in each age group were 42.73%, 41.95%, 20.51%, 45.03%, and 37.49%, respectively. Although the isolation of 25-59 years-old persons was the most effective, the TAR of individuals of aged 0-5 and 6-14 could not be reduced. Paradoxically, isolating individuals ≥60 year olds was not predicted to be an effective way of reducing the TAR in this group but isolating the age-group 25-59 did, which implies inter-age-group transmission from the latter to the former is significant. Isolating multiple age groups increased effectiveness. The most effective combined isolation target groups were of 6-14 + 25-59 year olds, 6-14 + 15-24 + 25-59 year olds, and 0-5 + 6-14 + 25-59 + ≥60 year olds. The last of these isolation schemas reduced the TAR of the total population from 39.64% to 0.006%, which was exceptionally close to the effectiveness of isolating all five age groups (TAR = 0.004%).


Assuntos
Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Isolamento de Pacientes , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1/fisiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Densidade Demográfica , Inquéritos e Questionários , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto Jovem
16.
Travel Med Infect Dis ; 12(6 Pt A): 650-8, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25467086

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: More than 600,000 annual arrivals from Africa, 1.4 billion population and developing health care systems render China at non-negligible risk of imported Ebola virus disease (EVD). METHOD: According to the natural history of EVD, we constructed a deterministic SEIR model. Three published EVD outbreaks in Africa were enrolled to calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) of EVD. Scenarios representing unreported and reported (with n weeks delay) imported EVD in China were simulated to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions assumed to be implemented in different periods of the outbreaks. RESULTS: Based on previous Africa outbreak incidence datasets, our mathematical model predicted the basic reproduction number of EVD in the range of 1.53-3.54. Adopting EVD prevalence at 0.04-0.16% from the same datasets and estimated missing information and monitoring rates at 1-10%, a total of 6-194 imported cases were predicted. Be a single case left unidentified/unreported, total attack rate was predicted to reach 60.19%-96.74%. Curve fitting results showed that earlier intervention benefits in exponential and linear decrease in prevalence and duration of outbreak respectively. CONCLUSION: Based on past outbreak experience in China, there is a need to implement an internet-based surveillance and monitoring system in order to reinforce health policy, track suspected cases and protect the general public by timely interventions.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , África/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Ebolavirus , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/transmissão , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Estatísticos
17.
PLoS One ; 9(4): e95006, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24736407

RESUMO

Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce. To estimate the efficacy of commonly used intervention strategies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered-Water model. No intervention was predicted to result in a total attack rate (TAR) of 90% of the affected population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.65-92.80) and duration of outbreak (DO) of 89 days, and the use of single-intervention strategies can be futile or even counter-productive. Prophylactics and water disinfection did not improve TAR or DO. School closure for up to 3 weeks did not help but only increased DO. Isolation alone significantly increased DO. Only antibiotics treatment could shorten the DO to 35 days with TAR unaffected. We observed that these intervention effects were additive when in combined usage under most circumstances. Combined intervention "Isolation+antibiotics+prophylactics+water disinfection" was predicted to result in the lowest TAR (41.9%, 95%CI: 36.97-47.04%) and shortest DO (28 days). Our actual Shigellosis control implementation that also included school closure for 1 week, attained comparable results and the modeling produced an epidemic curve of Shigellosis highly similar to our actual outbreak data. This lends a strong support to the reality of our model that provides a possible reference for public health professionals to evaluate their strategies towards Shigellosis control.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Disenteria Bacilar/epidemiologia , Disenteria Bacilar/prevenção & controle , Intervenção Médica Precoce , Algoritmos , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Vigilância da População , Estações do Ano
18.
BMC Infect Dis ; 13: 305, 2013 Jul 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23819824

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in mainland China. HFRS is particularly endemic in Changsha, the capital city of Hunan Province, with one of the highest incidences in China. The occurrence of HFRS is influenced by environmental factors. However, few studies have examined the relationship between environmental variation (such as land use changes and climate variations), rodents and HFRS occurrence. The purpose of this study is to predict the distribution of HFRS and identify the risk factors and relationship between HFRS occurrence and rodent hosts, combining ecological modeling with the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. METHODS: Ecological niche models (ENMs) were used to evaluate potential geographic distributions of rodent species by reconstructing details of their ecological niches in ecological dimensions, and projecting the results onto geography. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production was used to produce ENMs. Data were collected on HFRS cases in Changsha from 2005 to 2009, as well as national land survey data, surveillance data of rodents, meteorological data and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). RESULTS: The highest occurrence of HFRS was in districts with strong temperature seasonality, where elevation is below 200 m, mean annual temperature is around 17.5°C, and annual precipitation is below 1600 mm. Cultivated and urban lands in particular are associated with HFRS occurrence. Monthly NDVI values of areas predicted present is lower than areas predicted absent, with high seasonal variation. The number of HFRS cases was correlated with rodent density, and the incidence of HFRS cases in urban and forest areas was mainly associated with the density of Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity between different areas shows that HFRS occurrence is affected by the intensity of human activity, climate conditions, and landscape elements. Rodent density and species composition have significant impacts on the number of HFRS cases and their distribution.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Vírus Hantaan/isolamento & purificação , Febre Hemorrágica com Síndrome Renal/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , China/epidemiologia , Vetores de Doenças , Humanos , Camundongos , Modelos Estatísticos , Chuva , Ratos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Risco , Roedores , Estações do Ano , Temperatura
19.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 7(6): e2260, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23755316

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991-2010 in Changsha, China. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3-4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity. CONCLUSIONS: The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.


Assuntos
Febre Hemorrágica com Síndrome Renal/epidemiologia , Febre Hemorrágica com Síndrome Renal/transmissão , Umidade , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
20.
Chin Sci Bull ; 58(7): 741-749, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32214743

RESUMO

Biological experiments and epidemiological evidence indicate that variations in environment have important effect on the occurrence and transmission of epidemic influenza. It is therefore important to understand the characteristic patterns of transmission for prevention of disease and reduction of disease burden. Based on case records, we analyzed the environmental characteristics including climate variables in Changsha, and then constructed a meteorological anomaly susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model on the basis of the results of influenza A (H1N1) transmission. The results showed that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha showed significant correlation with meteorological conditions; the spread of influenza was sensitive to meteorological anomalies, and that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha was influenced by a combination of absolute humidity anomalous weather conditions, contact rates of the influenza patients and changes in population movements. These findings will provide helpful information regarding prevention strategies under different conditions, a fresh understanding of the emergence and re-emergence of influenza outbreaks, and a new perspective on the transmission dynamics of influenza.

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