Selecting a randomization method for a multi-center clinical trial with stochastic recruitment considerations.

BACKGROUND: The design of a multi-center randomized controlled trial (RCT) involves multiple considerations, such as the choice of the sample size, the number of centers and their geographic location, the strategy for recruitment of study participants, amongst others. There are plenty of methods to sequentially randomize patients in a multi-center RCT, with or without considering stratification factors. The goal of this paper is to perform a systematic assessment of such randomization methods for a multi-center 1:1 RCT assuming a competitive policy for the patient recruitment process. METHODS: We considered a Poisson-gamma model for the patient recruitment process with a uniform distribution of center activation times. We investigated 16 randomization methods (4 unstratified, 4 region-stratified, 4 center-stratified, 3 dynamic balancing randomization (DBR), and a complete randomization design) to sequentially randomize n = 500 patients. Statistical properties of the recruitment process and the randomization procedures were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. The operating characteristics included time to complete recruitment, number of centers that recruited a given number of patients, several measures of treatment imbalance and estimation efficiency under a linear model for the response, the expected proportions of correct guesses under two different guessing strategies, and the expected proportion of deterministic assignments in the allocation sequence. RESULTS: Maximum tolerated imbalance (MTI) randomization methods such as big stick design, Ehrenfest urn design, and block urn design result in a better balance-randomness tradeoff than the conventional permuted block design (PBD) with or without stratification. Unstratified randomization, region-stratified randomization, and center-stratified randomization provide control of imbalance at a chosen level (trial, region, or center) but may fail to achieve balance at the other two levels. By contrast, DBR does a very good job controlling imbalance at all 3 levels while maintaining the randomized nature of treatment allocation. Adding more centers into the study helps accelerate the recruitment process but at the expense of increasing the number of centers that recruit very few (or no) patients-which may increase center-level imbalances for center-stratified and DBR procedures. Increasing the block size or the MTI threshold(s) may help obtain designs with improved randomness-balance tradeoff. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of a randomization method is an important component of planning a multi-center RCT. Dynamic balancing randomization with carefully chosen MTI thresholds could be a very good strategy for trials with the competitive policy for patient recruitment.

Steady-state statistical properties and implementation of randomization designs with maximum tolerated imbalance restriction for two-arm equal allocation clinical trials.

In recent decades, several randomization designs have been proposed in the literature as better alternatives to the traditional permuted block design (PBD), providing higher allocation randomness under the same restriction of the maximum tolerated imbalance (MTI). However, PBD remains the most frequently used method for randomizing subjects in clinical trials. This status quo may reflect an inadequate awareness and appreciation of the statistical properties of these randomization designs, and a lack of simple methods for their implementation. This manuscript presents the analytic results of statistical properties for five randomization designs with MTI restriction based on their steady-state probabilities of the treatment imbalance Markov chain and compares them to those of the PBD. A unified framework for randomization sequence generation and real-time on-demand treatment assignment is proposed for the straightforward implementation of randomization algorithms with explicit formulas of conditional allocation probabilities. Topics associated with the evaluation, selection, and implementation of randomization designs are discussed. It is concluded that for two-arm equal allocation trials, several randomization designs offer stronger protection against selection bias than the PBD does, and their implementation is not necessarily more difficult than the implementation of the PBD.

Optimal Randomization Designs for Large Multicenter Clinical Trials: From the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network Funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Experience.

From 2016 to 2021, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke initiated ten multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials. Optimal subject randomization designs are demanded with 4 critical properties: (1) protection of treatment assignment randomness, (2) achievement of the desired treatment allocation ratio, (3) balancing of baseline covariates, and (4) ease of implementation. For acute stroke trials, it is necessary to minimize the time between eligibility assessment and treatment initiation. This article reviews the randomization designs for 3 trials currently enrolling in Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the SATURN (Statins in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial), the MOST (Multiarm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis Trial), and the FASTEST (Recombinant Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Trial). Randomization methods utilized in these trials include minimal sufficient balance, block urn design, big stick design, and step-forward randomization. Their advantages and limitations are reviewed and compared with traditional stratified permuted block design and minimization.

Impact of minimal sufficient balance, minimization, and stratified permuted blocks on bias and power in the estimation of treatment effect in sequential clinical trials with a binary endpoint.

Minimization is among the most common methods for controlling baseline covariate imbalance at the randomization phase of clinical trials. Previous studies have found that minimization does not preserve allocation randomness as well as other methods, such as minimal sufficient balance, making it more vulnerable to allocation predictability and selection bias. Additionally, minimization has been shown in simulation studies to inadequately control serious covariate imbalances when modest biased coin probabilities (≤0.65) are used. This current study extends the investigation of randomization methods to the analysis phase, comparing the impact of treatment allocation methods on power and bias in estimating treatment effects on a binary outcome using logistic regression. Power and bias in the estimation of treatment effect was found to be comparable across complete randomization, minimization, and minimal sufficient balance in unadjusted analyses. Further, minimal sufficient balance was found to have the most modest impact on power and the least bias in covariate-adjusted analyses. The minimal sufficient balance method is recommended for use in clinical trials as an alternative to minimization when covariate-adaptive subject randomization takes place.

Intense Arm Rehabilitation Therapy Improves the Modified Rankin Scale Score: Association Between Gains in Impairment and Function.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of intensive rehabilitation on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), a measure of activities limitation commonly used in acute stroke studies, and to define the specific changes in body structure/function (motor impairment) most related to mRS gains. METHODS: Patients were enrolled >90 days poststroke. Each was evaluated before and 30 days after a 6-week course of daily rehabilitation targeting the arm. Activity gains, measured using the mRS, were examined and compared to body structure/function gains, measured using the Fugl-Meyer (FM) motor scale. Additional analyses examined whether activity gains were more strongly related to specific body structure/function gains. RESULTS: At baseline (160 ± 48 days poststroke), patients (n = 77) had median mRS score of 3 (interquartile range, 2-3), decreasing to 2 [2-3] 30 days posttherapy (p < 0.0001). Similarly, the proportion of patients with mRS score ≤2 increased from 46.8% at baseline to 66.2% at 30 days posttherapy (p = 0.015). These findings were accounted for by the mRS score decreasing in 24 (31.2%) patients. Patients with a treatment-related mRS score improvement, compared to those without, had similar overall motor gains (change in total FM score, p = 0.63). In exploratory analysis, improvement in several specific motor impairments, such as finger flexion and wrist circumduction, was significantly associated with higher likelihood of mRS decrease. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive arm motor therapy is associated with improved mRS in a substantial fraction (31.2%) of patients. Exploratory analysis suggests specific motor impairments that might underlie this finding and may be optimal targets for rehabilitation therapies that aim to reduce activities limitations. CLINICAL TRIAL: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02360488. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that for patients >90 days poststroke with persistent arm motor deficits, intensive arm motor therapy improved mRS in a substantial fraction (31.2%) of patients.

Preventing Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events in High-Risk Patients With Non-disabling Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events Using Remote Ischemic Conditioning: A Single-Arm Study.

Background: Secondary stroke prevention after a high-risk, non-disabling ischemic cerebrovascular event needs to be enhanced. The study was conducted to investigate whether remote ischemic conditioning (RIC) is effective in preventing recurrent ischemic events within 3 months. Methods: This was a four-center, single-arm, open-label Phase IIa futility trial (PICNIC-One Study). Adult patients (≥18 years of age) who had an acute minor ischemic stroke (AMIS) with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤ 3 or a transient ischemic attack (TIA) with moderate-to-high risk of stroke recurrence (ABCD score ≥ 4) within 14 days of symptom onset were recruited. Patients received RIC as adjunctive therapy to routine secondary stroke prevention regimen. RIC consisted of five cycles of 5-min inflation (200 mmHg) and 5-min deflation of cuffs (45 min) on bilateral upper limbs twice a day for 90 days. Results: A total of 285 patients met the study criteria, of which 167 provided signed informed consent and were enrolled. Data from 162 were analyzed with five subjects excluded. Recurrent AIS/TIA occurred in 6/162 (3.7%) patients within 3 months, with no occurrence of hemorrhagic stroke. The top three adverse events were upper limb pain (44/162, 27.2%), petechia (26/162, 16.0%), and heart palpitation (5/162, 3.1%). About 68 (42.0%) subjects completed ≥ 50% of 45-min RIC sessions. Conclusions: RIC is a safe add-on procedure and it has a potential benefit in reducing recurrent cerebrovascular events in patients with high-risk, non-disabling ischemic cerebrovascular events as the risk of stroke/TIA events is lower than expected; however, its compliance needs to be improved. Our study provides critical preliminary data to plan a large sample size, randomized controlled clinical study to systematically investigate the safety and efficacy of RIC in this population.

Statistical properties of minimal sufficient balance and minimization as methods for controlling baseline covariate imbalance at the design stage of sequential clinical trials.

When the number of baseline covariates whose imbalance needs to be controlled in a sequential randomized controlled trial is large, minimization is the most commonly used method for randomizing treatment assignments. The lack of allocation randomness associated with the minimization method has been the source of controversy, and the need to reduce even minor imbalances inherent in the minimization method has been challenged. The minimal sufficient balance (MSB) method is an alternative to the minimization method. It prevents serious imbalance from a large number of covariates while maintaining a high level of allocation randomness. In this study, the two treatment allocation methods are compared with regards to the effectiveness of balancing covariates across treatment arms and allocation randomness in equal allocation clinical trials. The MSB method proves to be equal or superior in both respects. In addition, type I error rate is preserved in analyses for both balancing methods, when using a binary endpoint.

Time-trend impact on treatment estimation in two-arm clinical trials with a binary outcome and Bayesian response adaptive randomization.

Clinical trial design and analysis often assume study population homogeneity, although patient baseline profile and standard of care may evolve over time, especially in trials with long recruitment periods. The time-trend phenomenon can affect the treatment estimation and the operating characteristics of trials with Bayesian response adaptive randomization (BRAR). The mechanism of time-trend impact on BRAR is increasingly being studied but some aspects remain unclear. The goal of this research is to quantify the bias in treatment effect estimation due to the use of BRAR in the presence of time-trend. In addition, simulations are conducted to compare the performance of three commonly used BRAR algorithms under different time-trend patterns with and without early stopping rules. The results demonstrate that using these BRAR methods in a two-arm trial with time-trend may cause type I error inflation and treatment effect estimation bias. The magnitude and direction of the bias are affected by the parameters of the BRAR algorithm and the time-trend pattern.

Assessment of the End Point Adjudication Process on the Results of the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) Trial: A Secondary Analysis.

Importance: Debate continues about the value of event adjudication in clinical trials and whether independent centralized assessments improve reliability and validity of study results in masked randomized trials compared with local, investigator-assessed end points. Objective: To assess the results of the adjudicated end point process in the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial by comparing end points assessed by local site investigators with centrally adjudicated end points. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is an ad hoc secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind clinical trial comparing safety and effectiveness of clopidogrel bisulphate plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin. Patients received either 600 mg of clopidogrel bisulphate on day 1, then 75 mg per day through day 90 plus 50 to 325 mg of aspirin per day, or the same range of dosages of placebo plus aspirin. Investigators reported all potential end points; independent masked adjudicators were randomly assigned to review using definitions specified in the study protocol. This was a multicenter study; 269 international sites in 10 countries enrolled from May 28, 2010, to December 19, 2017. The study enrolled 4881 patients 18 years or older with transient ischemic attack or minor acute ischemic stroke within 12 hours of symptom onset and followed for 90 days from randomization; last follow-up was completed in March 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Independent adjudicators external to the study and masked to study treatment assignment adjudicated 467 primary and secondary effectiveness outcomes and major and minor bleeding events, including the primary composite end point, which was the risk of a composite of major ischemic events at 90 days, defined as ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from an ischemic vascular event. The primary safety end point was major hemorrhage. All components of the primary and safety outcomes were adjudicated. Results: In this secondary analysis of an international randomized clinical trial, a total of 269 sites worldwide randomized 4881 patients (median age, 65.0 years; interquartile range, 55-74 years); 55.0% were male. The primary results have been published previously. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary composite end point were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.59-0.95) for adjudicator-assessed events and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60-0.95) for investigator-assessed events. Agreement between adjudicator and investigator assessments was 90.7%. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary safety end point were 2.32 (95% CI, 1.10-4.87) for adjudicator-assessed events and 2.58 (95% CI, 1.19-5.58) for investigator-assessed events, with an agreement rate of 77.5%. Conclusions and Relevance: Independent end point adjudication did not substantially alter estimates of the primary treatment effectiveness in the POINT trial. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00991029.

Efficacy of Home-Based Telerehabilitation vs In-Clinic Therapy for Adults After Stroke: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Many patients receive suboptimal rehabilitation therapy doses after stroke owing to limited access to therapists and difficulty with transportation, and their knowledge about stroke is often limited. Telehealth can potentially address these issues. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether treatment targeting arm movement delivered via a home-based telerehabilitation (TR) system has comparable efficacy with dose-matched, intensity-matched therapy delivered in a traditional in-clinic (IC) setting, and to examine whether this system has comparable efficacy for providing stroke education. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this randomized, assessor-blinded, noninferiority trial across 11 US sites, 124 patients who had experienced stroke 4 to 36 weeks prior and had arm motor deficits (Fugl-Meyer [FM] score, 22-56 of 66) were enrolled between September 18, 2015, and December 28, 2017, to receive telerehabilitation therapy in the home (TR group) or therapy at an outpatient rehabilitation therapy clinic (IC group). Primary efficacy analysis used the intent-to-treat population. INTERVENTIONS: Participants received 36 sessions (70 minutes each) of arm motor therapy plus stroke education, with therapy intensity, duration, and frequency matched across groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Change in FM score from baseline to 4 weeks after end of therapy and change in stroke knowledge from baseline to end of therapy. RESULTS: A total of 124 participants (34 women and 90 men) had a mean (SD) age of 61 (14) years, a mean (SD) baseline FM score of 43 (8) points, and were enrolled a mean (SD) of 18.7 (8.9) weeks after experiencing a stroke. Among those treated, patients in the IC group were adherent to 33.6 of the 36 therapy sessions (93.3%) and patients in the TR group were adherent to 35.4 of the 36 assigned therapy sessions (98.3%). Patients in the IC group had a mean (SD) FM score change of 8.36 (7.04) points from baseline to 30 days after therapy (P < .001), while those in the TR group had a mean (SD) change of 7.86 (6.68) points (P < .001). The covariate-adjusted mean FM score change was 0.06 (95% CI, -2.14 to 2.26) points higher in the TR group (P = .96). The noninferiority margin was 2.47 and fell outside the 95% CI, indicating that TR is not inferior to IC therapy. Motor gains remained significant when patients enrolled early (<90 days) or late (≥90 days) after stroke were examined separately. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Activity-based training produced substantial gains in arm motor function regardless of whether it was provided via home-based telerehabilitation or traditional in-clinic rehabilitation. The findings of this study suggest that telerehabilitation has the potential to substantially increase access to rehabilitation therapy on a large scale. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02360488.

Rationale and Study Design for a Single-Arm Phase IIa Study Investigating Feasibility of Preventing Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events in High-Risk Patients with Acute Non-disabling Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events Using Remote Ischemic Conditioning.

BACKGROUND: Acute minor ischemic stroke (AMIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) is a common cerebrovascular event with a considerable high recurrence. Prior research demonstrated the effectiveness of regular long-term remote ischemic conditioning (RIC) in secondary stroke prevention in patients with intracranial stenosis. We hypothesized that RIC can serve as an effective adjunctive therapy to pharmacotherapy in preventing ischemic events in patients with AMIS/TIA. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility, safety, and preliminary efficacy of daily RIC in inhibiting cerebrovascular/cardiovascular events after AMIS/TIA. METHODS: This is a single-arm, open-label, multicenter Phase IIa futility study with a sample size of 165. Patients with AMIS/TIA receive RIC as an additional therapy to secondary stroke prevention regimen. RIC consists of five cycles of 5-min inflation (200 mmHg) and 5-min deflation of cuffs on bilateral upper limbs twice a day for 90 days. The antiplatelet strategy is based on individual physician's best practice: aspirin alone, clopidogrel alone, or combination of aspirin and clopidogrel. We will assess the recurrence rate of ischemic stroke/TIA within 3 months as the primary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The data gathered from the study will be used to determine whether a further large-scale, multicenter randomized controlled Phase II trial is warranted in patients with AMIS/TIA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03004820; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03004820.

The asymptotic maximal procedure for subject randomization in clinical trials.

The maximal procedure is a restricted randomization method that maximizes the number of feasible allocation sequences under the constraints of the maximum tolerated imbalance and the allocation sequence length. It assigns an equal probability to all feasible sequences. However, its implementation is not easy due to the lack of the Markovian property of the conditional allocation probabilities. In this paper, we propose the asymptotic maximal procedure, which replaces the sequence-length-dependent conditional allocation probabilities with their asymptotic values. The new randomization procedure is compared with the original maximal procedure and few other randomization procedures with the maximum tolerated imbalance via simulations and is found to be a practical choice for future clinical trials.

Impact of adaptation algorithm, timing, and stopping boundaries on the performance of Bayesian response adaptive randomization in confirmative trials with a binary endpoint.

Despite the concerns of time trend in subject profiles, the use of Bayesian response adaptive randomization (BRAR) in large multicenter phase 3 confirmative trials has been reported in recent years, motivated by the potential benefits in subject ethics and/or trial efficiency. However three issues remain unclear to investigators: 1) among several BRAR algorithms, how to choose one for the specific trial setting; 2) when to start and how frequently to update the allocation ratio; and 3) how to choose the interim analyses stopping boundaries to preserve the type 1 error. In this paper, three commonly used BRAR algorithms are evaluated based on type 1 error, power, sample size, the proportion of subjects assigned to the better performing arm, and the total number of failures, under two specific trial settings and different allocation ratio update timing and frequencies. Simulation studies show that for two-arm superiority trials, none of the three BRAR algorithms has predominant benefits in both patient ethics and trial efficiency when compared to fixed equal allocation design. For a specific trial aiming to identify the best or the worst among three treatments, a properly selected BRAR algorithm and its implementation parameters are able to gain ethical and efficiency benefits simultaneously. Although the simulation results come from a specific trial setting, the methods described in this paper are generally applicable to other trials.

A surrogate-primary replacement algorithm for response-adaptive randomization in stroke clinical trials.

Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) offers clinical investigators benefit by modifying the treatment allocation probabilities to optimize the ethical, operational, or statistical performance of the trial. Delayed primary outcomes and their effect on RAR have been studied in the literature; however, the incorporation of surrogate outcomes has not been fully addressed. We explore the benefits and limitations of surrogate outcome utilization in RAR in the context of acute stroke clinical trials. We propose a novel surrogate-primary (S-P) replacement algorithm where a patient's surrogate outcome is used in the RAR algorithm only until their primary outcome becomes available to replace it. Computer simulations investigate the effect of both the delay in obtaining the primary outcome and the underlying surrogate and primary outcome distributional discrepancies on complete randomization, standard RAR and the S-P replacement algorithm methods. Results show that when the primary outcome is delayed, the S-P replacement algorithm reduces the variability of the treatment allocation probabilities and achieves stabilization sooner. Additionally, the S-P replacement algorithm benefit proved to be robust in that it preserved power and reduced the expected number of failures across a variety of scenarios.

When Should ED Physicians Use an HIE? Predicting Presence of Patient Data in an HIE.

OBJECTIVES: Health information exchanges (HIEs) make possible the construction of databases to characterize patients as multisystem users (MSUs), those visiting emergency departments (EDs) of more than one hospital system within a region during a 1-year period. HIE data can inform an algorithm highlighting patients for whom information is more likely to be present in the HIE, leading to a higher yield HIE experience for ED clinicians and incentivizing their adoption of HIE. Our objective was to describe patient characteristics that determine which ED patients are likely to be MSUs and therefore have information in an HIE, thereby improving the efficacy of HIE use and increasing ED clinician perception of HIE benefit. METHODS: Data were extracted from a regional HIE involving four hospital systems (11 EDs) in the Charleston, South Carolina area. We used univariate and multivariable regression analyses to develop a predictive model for MSU status. RESULTS: Factors associated with MSUs included younger age groups, dual-payer insurance status, living in counties that are more rural, and one of at least six specific diagnoses: mental disorders; symptoms, signs, and ill-defined conditions; complications of pregnancy, childbirth, and puerperium; diseases of the musculoskeletal system; injury and poisoning; and diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs. For patients with multiple ED visits during 1 year, 43.8% of MSUs had ≥4 visits, compared with 18.0% of non-MSUs (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This predictive model accurately identified patients cared for at multiple hospital systems and can be used to increase the likelihood that time spent logging on to the HIE will be a value-added effort for emergency physicians.

A Comprehensive View of Frequent Emergency Department Users Based on Data from a Regional HIE.

OBJECTIVES: A small but significant number of patients make frequent emergency department (ED) visits to multiple EDs within a region. We have a unique health information exchange (HIE) that includes every ED encounter in all hospital systems in our region. Using our HIE we were able to characterize all frequent ED users in our region, regardless of hospital visited or payer class. The objective of our study was to use data from an HIE to characterize patients in a region who are frequent ED users (FEDUs). METHODS: We constructed a database from a cohort of adult patients (18 years old or older) with information in a regional HIE for a 1-year period beginning in April 2012. Patients were defined as FEDUs (those who made four or more visits during the study period) and non-FEDUs (those who made fewer than four ED visits during the study period). Predictor variables included age, race, sex, payer class, county of residence, and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Bivariate (χ(2)) and multivariate (logistic regression) analyses were performed to determine associations between predictor variables and the outcome of being a FEDU. RESULTS: The database contained 127,672 patients, 12,293 (9.6%) of whom were FEDUs. Logistic regression showed the following patient characteristics to be significantly associated with the outcome of being a FEDU: age 35 to 44 years; African American race; Medicaid, Medicare, and dual-pay payer class; and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 630 to 679 (complications of pregnancy, childbirth, and puerperium), 780 to 799 (ill-defined conditions), 280 to 289 (diseases of the blood), 290-319 (mental disorders), 680 to 709 (diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue), 710 to 739 (musculoskeletal and connective tissue disease), 460 to 519 (respiratory disease), and 520 to 579 (digestive disease). No significant differences were noted between men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Data from an HIE can be used to describe all of the patients within a region who are FEDUs, regardless of the hospital system they visited. This information can be used to focus care coordination efforts and link appropriate patients to a medical home. Future studies can be designed to learn the reasons why patients become FEDUs, and interventions can be developed to address deficiencies in health care that result in frequent ED visits.