Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective. Quantitative research is still needed however to assess the efficacy of different candidate NPIs and their timings to guide ongoing and future responses to epidemics of this emerging disease across the World. METHODS: We built a travel network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to simulate the outbreak across cities in mainland China. We used epidemiological parameters estimated for the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan to parameterise the transmission before NPIs were implemented. To quantify the relative effect of various NPIs, daily changes of delay from illness onset to the first reported case in each county were used as a proxy for the improvement of case identification and isolation across the outbreak. Historical and near-real time human movement data, obtained from Baidu location-based service, were used to derive the intensity of travel restrictions and contact reductions across China. The model and outputs were validated using daily reported case numbers, with a series of sensitivity analyses conducted. RESULTS: We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range [IQR] 76,776 - 164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020, and these were highly correlated (p<0.001, R2=0.86) with reported incidence. Without NPIs, the number of COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (IQR: 44 - 94), with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to prevent more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but integrated NPIs would achieve the strongest and most rapid effect. If NPIs could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in China, cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas. However, if NPIs were conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks later, the number of cases could have shown a 3-fold, 7-fold, and 18-fold increase across China, respectively. Results also suggest that the social distancing intervention should be continued for the next few months in China to prevent case numbers increasing again after travel restrictions were lifted on February 17, 2020. CONCLUSION: The NPIs deployed in China appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak, but the efficacy of the different interventions varied, with the early case detection and contact reduction being the most effective. Moreover, deploying the NPIs early is also important to prevent further spread. Early and integrated NPI strategies should be prepared, adopted and adjusted to minimize health, social and economic impacts in affected regions around the World.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China.

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.

Urban mosquito management administration: Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) habitat surveillance and questionnaire survey in Wuhan, Central China.

BACKGROUND: Creating National Sanitary City (CNSC) promotes appearance, environment sanitation and public health including vector management of cities in China. However, vector management especially mosquito management and the related administrative productivity of Patriotic Health Campaign System (PHCS) of National Sanitary Cities (NSCs) were questioned by many pest control professionals and citizens. In this study, we studied mosquito management of NSCs taking Wuhan as an example. The study aimed to (1) determine the distribution and abundance of immature mosquito habitats in built-up areas of Wuhan and (2) better understand the related administration procedure in CNSC. METHODS: Immature mosquito habitat surveillance was carried out in randomly selected premises of driving schools (DSs), schools or kindergartens (SKs), property management residential areas (PMRAs), construction sites (CSs), wide roads with storm drains (WRSDs) and urban creeks (UCs) in built-up areas of Wuhan from July to October 2015 followed by questionnaire interviews with one each of premise occupants and district departments responsible for mosquito management in these premises. RESULTS: Total of 64.1 km of route were inspected in 36 DSs, 36 SKs, 36 PMRAs, 36 CSs and 36 segments of WRSD and 2,158 potential mosquito habitats with 749 (35%) mosquito-positive habitats were found. The route index (RI) was 11.7, which was 14.6 times higher than the grade C criteria for vector density control (RI = 0.8 positive habitats/km) in CNSC. Occupants of 36 DSs, 36 SKs, 36 PMRAs, 34 CSs were interviewed and 77% of them reported no difference in mosquito infestation in their premises since 2013 and 80% of them knew about the responsibility and arrangements of PHCS of mosquito management in their premises. Only 15% had the awareness of larval source reduction strategy and 14% had implemented it. Receipt the electronic/paper edition of CNSC vector management specifications from the PHCS was very low (13%) and an official notification or bulletin for rectification mosquito-positive habitats was also very low (5%). Of the 75 responsible district departments interviewed, about half (55%) reported that they had held training courses/meetings related to CNSC vector management, the majority (96%) reported that they had not carried out independent on-site supervision of premises under their jurisdiction. No differences in larval indices were found between premises which were administrative intervened and with no administrative intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The administrative intervention of PHCS had not evidently improved mosquito management of the premises in built-up areas in Wuhan. It is a violation of the original intention of the National Patriotic Health Campaign Committee in organizing CNSC programs. To combat mosquito borne diseases, and to improve the quality of life of residents, we recommend that PHCS honestly reveals defects in urban mosquito management and seriously takes those exposed defects. The PHCS should strengthen Patriotic Health Campaign activities by strict adherence to NSC standards. Further research on sustained promotion of urban mosquito management of NSCs, which focus on effective administration, as well as on improvement of related sectors of NSC standards should be carried out.