Temporal rich club phenomenon and its formation mechanisms.

The temporal rich club (TRC) phenomenon is widespread in real systems, forming a tight and continuous collection of the prominent nodes that control the system. However, there is still a lack of sufficient understanding of the mechanisms of TRC formation. Here we use the international N-nutrient trade network as an example of an in-depth identification, analysis, and modeling of its TRC phenomenon. The system exhibits a statistically significant TRC phenomenon, with eight economies forming the cornerstone club. Our analysis reveals that node degree is the most influential factor in TRC formation compared to other variables. The mathematical evolution models we constructed propose that the TRC in the N-nutrient trade network arises from the coexistence of degree-homophily and path-dependence mechanisms. By comprehending these mechanisms, we introduce a different perspective on TRC formation. Although our analysis is limited to the international trade system, the methodology can be extended to analyze the mechanisms underlying TRC emergence in other systems.

Evolving community structure in the international pesticide trade networks.

The statistical properties of the international trade networks of all commodities as a whole have been extensively studied. However, the international trade networks of individual commodities often behave differently. Due to the importance of pesticides in agricultural production and food security, we investigated the evolving community structure in the international pesticide trade networks (iPTNs) of five categories from 2007 to 2018. We reveal that the community structures in the undirected and directed iPTNs exhibit regional patterns. However, the regional patterns are very different for undirected and directed networks and for different categories of pesticides. Moreover, the community structure is more stable in the directed iPTNs than in the undirected iPTNs. We also extract the intrinsic community blocks for the directed international trade networks of each pesticide category. It is found that the largest intrinsic community block is the most stable, appears in every pesticide category, and contains important economies (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal) in Europe. Other important and stable intrinsic community blocks are Canada and the United States in North America, Argentina and Brazil in South America, and Australia and New Zealand in Oceania. These results suggest that, in the international trade of pesticides, geographic distance and the complementarity of important and adjacent economies are significant factors.

The health risk of acetochlor metabolite CMEPA is associated with lipid accumulation induced liver injury.

Liver injury may cause many diseases, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Acetochlor is one of the representative chloroacetamide herbicides, and its metabolite 2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methyl phenyl) acetamide (CMEPA) is the main form of exposure in the environment. It has been shown that acetochlor can cause mitochondrial damage of HepG2 cells and induce apoptosis by activating Bcl/Bax pathway (Wang et al., 2021). But there has been less research on CMEPA. we explored the possibility of CMEPA and liver injury through biological experiments. In vivo, CMEPA (0-16 mg/L) induced liver damage in zebrafish larvae, including increased lipid droplets, changes in liver morphology (>1.3-fold) and increased TC/TG content (>2.5-fold). In vitro, we selected L02 (human normal liver cells) as the model, and explored its molecular mechanism. We found that CMEPA (0-160 mg/L) induced apoptosis (similar to 40%), mitochondrial damage and oxidative stress in L02 cells. CMEPA induced intracellular lipid accumulation by inhibiting AMPK/ACC/CPT-1A signaling pathway and activating SREBP-1c/FAS signaling pathway. Our study provides evidence of a link between CMEPA and liver injury. This raises concerns regarding the health risks of pesticide metabolites to liver health.

Quantifying interconnectedness and centrality ranking among financial institutions with TVP-VAR framework.

Financial risk is spread and amplified through the interconnectedness among financial institutions. We apply a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to analyze the dynamic spillover effects in the Chinese financial system. We find that the 2017 house price control policies have significantly increased the risk of China's financial system. Before 2017, with the prosperity of the real estate market, the interconnectedness of the Chinese financial system continued to decline, while after 2017, with the slowdown of house price growth and the downturn of the real estate market, the interconnectedness turned to increase. For different sectors, the trends and the magnitudes of the spillover effects are diverse, and any sector can contribute to systemic risk in a dynamic way. Finally, we rank 20 systemically important financial institutions according to two centrality measures. The stable institution ranking provides less noisy information for regulators to formulate a policy and intervene in the market effectively.

Robustness and efficiency of international pesticide trade networks subject to link removal strategies.

The international pesticide trade network (iPTN) is a key factor affecting global food production and food security. The trade relationship is a key component in iPTNs. In a complex international trade environment, we model the impacts of uncertain factors such as trade wars, economic blockades and local wars, as removing vital relationships in the trade network. There are many complex network studies on node centrality, but few on link centrality or link importance. We propose a new method for computing network link centrality. The main innovation of the method is in converting the original network into a dual graph, the nodes in the dual graph corresponding to the links of the original network. Through the dual graph, the node centrality indicators can measure the centrality of the links in the original network. We verify the effectiveness of the network link centrality indicator based on the dual graph in the iPTN, analyze the relationship between the existing network link centrality indicators and the indicator proposed in this paper, and compare their differences. It is found that the trade relationships with larger indicators (hub, outcloseness, outdegree) based on the dual graph have a greater impact on network efficiency than those based on the original pesticide trade networks.

Microstructural Characteristics of the Weighted and Directed International Crop Trade Networks.

With increasing global demand for food, international food trade is playing a critical role in balancing the food supply and demand across different regions. Here, using trade datasets of four crops that provide more than 50% of the calories consumed globally, we constructed four international crop trade networks (iCTNs). We observed the increasing globalization in the international crop trade and different trade patterns in different iCTNs. The distributions of node degrees deviate from power laws, and the distributions of link weights follow power laws. We also found that the in-degree is positively correlated with the out-degree, but negatively correlated with the clustering coefficient. This indicates that the numbers of trade partners affect the tendency of economies to form clusters. In addition, each iCTN exhibits a unique topology which is different from the whole food network studied by many researchers. Our analysis on the microstructural characteristics of different iCTNs provides highly valuable insights into distinctive features of specific crop trades and has potential implications for model construction and food security.

Highway Freight Transportation Diversity of Cities Based on Radiation Models.

Using a unique data set containing about 15.06 million truck transportation records in five months, we investigate the highway freight transportation diversity of 338 Chinese cities based on the truck transportation probability pij from one city to another. The transportation probabilities are calculated from the radiation model based on the geographic distance and its cost-based version based on the driving distance as the proxy of cost. For each model, we consider both the population and the gross domestic product (GDP), and find quantitatively very similar results. We find that the transportation probabilities have nice power-law tails with the tail exponents close to 0.5 for all the models. The two transportation probabilities in each model fall around the diagonal pij=pji but are often not the same. In addition, the corresponding transportation probabilities calculated from the raw radiation model and the cost-based radiation model also fluctuate around the diagonal pijgeo=pijcost. We calculate four sets of highway truck transportation diversity according to the four sets of transportation probabilities that are found to be close to each other for each city pair. It is found that the population, the gross domestic product, the in-flux, and the out-flux scale as power laws with respect to the transportation diversity in the raw and cost-based radiation models. It implies that a more developed city usually has higher diversity in highway truck transportation, which reflects the fact that a more developed city usually has a more diverse economic structure.

Predicting highway freight transportation networks using radiation models.

Highway freight transportation (HFT) plays an important role in the economic activities. Predicting HFT networks is not only scientifically significant in the understanding of the mechanism governing the formation and dynamics of these networks, but also of practical significance in highway planning and design for policymakers and truck allocation and route planning for logistic companies. In this work we apply parameter-free radiation models to predict the HFT network in mainland China and assess their predictive performance using metrics based on links and fluxes, which can be done in reference to the real directed and weighted HFT network between 338 Chinese cities constructed from about 15.06 million truck transportation records in five months. It is found that the radiation models exhibit relatively high accuracy in predicting links but low accuracy in predicting fluxes on links. Similar to gravity models, radiation models also suffer difficulty in predicting long-distance links and the fluxes on them. Nevertheless, the radiation models perform well in reproducing several scaling laws of the HFT network. The adoption of population or gross domestic product in the model has a minor impact on the results, and replacing the geographic distance by the path length taken by most truck drivers does not improve the results.

Information Transfer between Stock Market Sectors: A Comparison between the USA and China.

Information diffusion within financial markets plays a crucial role in the process of price formation and the propagation of sentiment and risk. We perform a comparative analysis of information transfer between industry sectors of the Chinese and the USA stock markets, using daily sector indices for the period from 2000 to 2017. The information flow from one sector to another is measured by the transfer entropy of the daily returns of the two sector indices. We find that the most active sector in information exchange (i.e., the largest total information inflow and outflow) is the non-bank financial sector in the Chinese market and the technology sector in the USA market. This is consistent with the role of the non-bank sector in corporate financing in China and the impact of technological innovation in the USA. In each market, the most active sector is also the largest information sink that has the largest information inflow (i.e., inflow minus outflow). In contrast, we identify that the main information source is the bank sector in the Chinese market and the energy sector in the USA market. In the case of China, this is due to the importance of net bank lending as a signal of corporate activity and the role of energy pricing in affecting corporate profitability. There are sectors such as the real estate sector that could be an information sink in one market but an information source in the other, showing the complex behavior of different markets. Overall, these findings show that stock markets are more synchronized, or ordered, during periods of turmoil than during periods of stability.

Identifying risk factors for chronic kidney disease stage 3 in adults with acquired solitary kidney from unilateral nephrectomy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 3 among adults with ASK from unilateral nephrectomy. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data from adult patients with ASK between January, 2009 and January, 2019, identified from a tertiary hospital in China. The clinical data were compared between patients who developed CKD stage 3 and those who did not develop CKD stage 3 during follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 172 patients with ASK (110 men; median 58.0 years) were enrolled, with a median follow-up duration of 5.0 years. During follow-up, 91 (52.9%) and 24 (14.0%) patients developed CKD stage 3 and end-stage renal disease, respectively. Multiple regression analyses showed that age (odds ratio [OR] 1.076, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.039-1.115, p < 0.001), diabetes (OR 4.401, 95% CI 1.693-11.44, p = 0.002), hyperuricemia (OR 2.733, 95% CI 1.104-6.764, p = 0.03), a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (OR 5.583, 95% CI 1.884-18.068, p = 0.002), and ASK due to renal tuberculosis (OR 8.816, 95% CI 2.92-26.62, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for developing CKD stage 3 among patients with ASK. CONCLUSIONS: Regular follow-up of renal function is needed among adult patients with ASK. Optimal management of diabetes, hyperuricemia, and CVD may reduce their risk of CKD stage 3, especially among those that undergo unilateral nephrectomy for renal tuberculosis.

Modeling aggressive market order placements with Hawkes factor models.

Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-excitation respectively. We calibrate the model for a Shenzhen Stock Exchange stock. We find that the exponential kernel with a smooth cut-off (i.e. the subtraction of two exponentials) produces much better calibration than the monotonous exponential kernel (i.e. the sum of two exponentials). The exogenous baseline intensity explains the U-shaped intraday pattern. Our empirical results show that the endogenous submission clustering is mainly caused by self-excitation rather than cross-excitation.

Multifractal analysis of financial markets: a review.

Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originated, multifractal analysis of financial markets has bloomed, forming one of the main directions of econophysics. We review the multifractal analysis methods and multifractal models adopted in or invented for financial time series and their subtle properties, which are applicable to time series in other disciplines. We survey the cumulating evidence for the presence of multifractality in financial time series in different markets and at different time periods and discuss the sources of multifractality. The usefulness of multifractal analysis in quantifying market inefficiency, in supporting risk management and in developing other applications is presented. We finally discuss open problems and further directions of multifractal analysis.

Forecasting extreme atmospheric events with a recurrence-interval-analysis-based autoregressive conditional duration model.

With most city dwellers in China subjected to air pollution, forecasting extreme air pollution spells is of paramount significance in both scheduling outdoor activities and ameliorating air pollution. In this paper, we integrate the autoregressive conditional duration model (ACD) with the recurrence interval analysis (RIA) and also extend the ACD model to a spatially autoregressive conditional duration (SACD) model by adding a spatially reviewed term to quantitatively explain and predict extreme air pollution recurrence intervals. Using the hourly data of six pollutants and the air quality index (AQI) during 2013-2016 collected from 12 national air quality monitoring stations in Beijing as our test samples, we attest that the spatially reviewed recurrence intervals have some general explanatory power over the recurrence intervals in the neighbouring air quality monitoring stations. We also conduct a one-step forecast using the RIA-ACD(1,1) and RIA-SACD(1,1,1) models and find that 90% of the predicted recurrence intervals are smaller than 72 hours, which justifies the predictive power of the proposed models. When applied to more time lags and neighbouring stations, the models are found to yield results that are consistent with reality, which evinces the feasibility of predicting extreme air pollution events through a recurrence-interval-analysis-based autoregressive conditional duration model. Moreover, the addition of a spatial term has proved effective in enhancing the predictive power.

Temporal and spatial correlation patterns of air pollutants in Chinese cities.

As a huge threat to the public health, China's air pollution has attracted extensive attention and continues to grow in tandem with the economy. Although the real-time air quality report can be utilized to update our knowledge on air quality, questions about how pollutants evolve across time and how pollutants are spatially correlated still remain a puzzle. In view of this point, we adopt the PMFG network method to analyze the six pollutants' hourly data in 350 Chinese cities in an attempt to find out how these pollutants are correlated temporally and spatially. In terms of time dimension, the results indicate that, except for O3, the pollutants have a common feature of the strong intraday patterns of which the daily variations are composed of two contraction periods and two expansion periods. Besides, all the time series of the six pollutants possess strong long-term correlations, and this temporal memory effect helps to explain why smoggy days are always followed by one after another. In terms of space dimension, the correlation structure shows that O3 is characterized by the highest spatial connections. The PMFGs reveal the relationship between this spatial correlation and provincial administrative divisions by filtering the hierarchical structure in the correlation matrix and refining the cliques as the tinny spatial clusters. Finally, we check the stability of the correlation structure and conclude that, except for PM10 and O3, the other pollutants have an overall stable correlation, and all pollutants have a slight trend to become more divergent in space. These results not only enhance our understanding of the air pollutants' evolutionary process, but also shed lights on the application of complex network methods into geographic issues.

Direct determination approach for the multifractal detrending moving average analysis.

In the canonical framework, we propose an alternative approach for the multifractal analysis based on the detrending moving average method (MF-DMA). We define a canonical measure such that the multifractal mass exponent τ(q) is related to the partition function and the multifractal spectrum f(α) can be directly determined. The performances of the direct determination approach and the traditional approach of the MF-DMA are compared based on three synthetic multifractal and monofractal measures generated from the one-dimensional p-model, the two-dimensional p-model, and the fractional Brownian motions. We find that both approaches have comparable performances to unveil the fractal and multifractal nature. In other words, without loss of accuracy, the multifractal spectrum f(α) can be directly determined using the new approach with less computation cost. We also apply the new MF-DMA approach to the volatility time series of stock prices and confirm the presence of multifractality.

Skill complementarity enhances heterophily in collaboration networks.

Much empirical evidence shows that individuals usually exhibit significant homophily in social networks. We demonstrate, however, skill complementarity enhances heterophily in the formation of collaboration networks, where people prefer to forge social ties with people who have professions different from their own. We construct a model to quantify the heterophily by assuming that individuals choose collaborators to maximize utility. Using a huge database of online societies, we find evidence of heterophily in collaboration networks. The results of model calibration confirm the presence of heterophily. Both empirical analysis and model calibration show that the heterophilous feature is persistent along the evolution of online societies. Furthermore, the degree of skill complementarity is positively correlated with their production output. Our work sheds new light on the scientific research utility of virtual worlds for studying human behaviors in complex socioeconomic systems.

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

Detrended partial cross-correlation analysis of two nonstationary time series influenced by common external forces.

When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover the intrinsic power-law cross correlations between two simultaneously recorded time series in the presence of nonstationarity after removing the effects of other time series acting as common forces. The DPXA method is a generalization of the detrended cross-correlation analysis that takes into account partial correlation analysis. We demonstrate the method by using bivariate fractional Brownian motions contaminated with a fractional Brownian motion. We find that the DPXA is able to recover the analytical cross Hurst indices, and thus the multiscale DPXA coefficients are a viable alternative to the conventional cross-correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the advantage of the DPXA coefficients over the DCCA coefficients by analyzing contaminated bivariate fractional Brownian motions. We calculate the DPXA coefficients and use them to extract the intrinsic cross correlation between crude oil and gold futures by taking into consideration the impact of the U.S. dollar index. We develop the multifractal DPXA (MF-DPXA) method in order to generalize the DPXA method and investigate multifractal time series. We analyze multifractal binomial measures masked with strong white noises and find that the MF-DPXA method quantifies the hidden multifractal nature while the multifractal DCCA method fails.

Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

Triadic motifs in the dependence networks of virtual societies.

In friendship networks, individuals have different numbers of friends, and the closeness or intimacy between an individual and her friends is heterogeneous. Using a statistical filtering method to identify relationships about who depends on whom, we construct dependence networks (which are directed) from weighted friendship networks of avatars in more than two hundred virtual societies of a massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG). We investigate the evolution of triadic motifs in dependence networks. Several metrics show that the virtual societies evolved through a transient stage in the first two to three weeks and reached a relatively stable stage. We find that the unidirectional loop motif (M9) is underrepresented and does not appear, open motifs are also underrepresented, while other close motifs are overrepresented. We also find that, for most motifs, the overall level difference of the three avatars in the same motif is significantly lower than average, whereas the sum of ranks is only slightly larger than average. Our findings show that avatars' social status plays an important role in the formation of triadic motifs.