Comparison of genetic risk prediction models to improve prediction of coronary heart disease in two large cohorts of the MONICA/KORA study.

It is still unclear how genetic information, provided as single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), can be most effectively integrated into risk prediction models for coronary heart disease (CHD) to add significant predictive value beyond clinical risk models. For the present study, a population-based case-cohort was used as a trainingset (451 incident cases, 1488 noncases) and an independent cohort as testset (160 incident cases, 2749 noncases). The following strategies to quantify genetic information were compared: A weighted genetic risk score including Metabochip SNPs associated with CHD in the literature (GRSMetabo ); selection of the most predictive SNPs among these literature-confirmed variants using priority-Lasso (PLMetabo ); validation of two comprehensive polygenic risk scores: GRSGola based on Metabochip data, and GRSKhera (available in the testset only) based on cross-validated genome-wide genotyping data. We used Cox regression to assess associations with incident CHD. C-index, category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI) and relative integrated discrimination improvement (IDIrel ) were used to quantify the predictive performance of genetic information beyond Framingham risk score variables. In contrast to GRSMetabo and PLMetabo , GRSGola significantly improved the prediction (delta C-index [95% confidence interval]: 0.0087 [0.0044, 0.0130]; IDIrel : 0.0509 [0.0131, 0.0894]; cfNRI improved only in cases: 0.1761 [0.0253, 0.3219]). GRSKhera yielded slightly worse prediction results than GRSGola .

A Panel of 6 Biomarkers Significantly Improves the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes in the MONICA/KORA Study Population.

CONTEXT: Improved strategies to identify persons at high risk of type 2 diabetes are important to target costly preventive efforts to those who will benefit most. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to assess whether novel biomarkers improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes beyond noninvasive standard clinical risk factors alone or in combination with glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). METHODS: We used a population-based case-cohort study for discovery (689 incident cases and 1850 noncases) and an independent cohort study (262 incident cases, 2549 noncases) for validation. An L1-penalized (lasso) Cox model was used to select the most predictive set among 47 serum biomarkers from multiple etiological pathways. All variables available from the noninvasive German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRSadapted) were forced into the models. The C index and the category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the selected biomarkers beyond the GDRSadapted model (plus HbA1c). RESULTS: Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2, soluble E-selectin, decorin, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were selected as the most relevant biomarkers. The simultaneous addition of these 6 biomarkers significantly improved the predictive performance both in the discovery (C index [95% CI], 0.053 [0.039-0.066]; cfNRI [95% CI], 67.4% [57.3%-79.5%]) and the validation study (0.034 [0.019-0.053]; 48.4% [35.6%-60.8%]). Significant improvements by these biomarkers were also seen on top of the GDRSadapted model plus HbA1c in both studies. CONCLUSION: The addition of 6 biomarkers significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes when added to a noninvasive clinical model or to a clinical model plus HbA1c.

Association of Circulating Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Levels With Cardiovascular Mortality: A Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies.

Importance: Human genetics and studies in experimental models support a key role of monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) in atherosclerosis. Yet, the associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular death in the general population remain largely unexplored. Objective: To explore whether circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with risk of incident coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality in the general population. Data Sources and Selection: Population-based cohort studies, identified through a systematic review, that have examined associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular end points. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Using a prespecified harmonized analysis plan, study-specific summary data were obtained from Cox regression models after excluding individuals with overt cardiovascular disease at baseline. Derived hazard ratios (HRs) were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and unstable angina), nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death (from cardiac or cerebrovascular causes). Results: The meta-analysis included 7 cohort studies involving 21 401 individuals (mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years; 10 012 men [46.8%]). Mean (SD) follow-up was 15.3 (4.5) years (326 392 person-years at risk). In models adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, higher MCP-1 levels at baseline were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (HR per 1-SD increment in MCP-1 levels: 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]; P = .01), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13]; P = .02), and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.05-1.20]; P < .001). In analyses comparing MCP-1 quartiles, these associations followed dose-response patterns. After additionally adjusting for vascular risk factors, the risk estimates were attenuated, but the associations of MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular death remained statistically significant, as did the association of MCP-1 levels in the upper quartile with coronary heart disease. There was no significant heterogeneity; the results did not change in sensitivity analyses excluding events occurring in the first 5 years after MCP-1 measurement, and the risk estimates were stable after additional adjustments for circulating levels of interleukin-6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Conclusions and Relevance: Higher circulating MCP-1 levels are associated with higher long-term cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling individuals free of overt cardiovascular disease. These findings provide further support for a key role of MCP-1-signaling in cardiovascular disease.

Biomarker-defined pathways for incident type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease-a comparison in the MONICA/KORA study.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers may contribute to our understanding of the pathophysiology of various diseases. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD) share many clinical and lifestyle risk factors and several biomarkers are associated with both diseases. The current analysis aims to assess the relevance of biomarkers combined to pathway groups for the development of T2D and CHD in the same cohort. METHODS: Forty-seven serum biomarkers were measured in the MONICA/KORA case-cohort study using clinical chemistry assays and ultrasensitive molecular counting technology. The T2D (CHD) analyses included 689 (568) incident cases and 1850 (2004) non-cases from three population-based surveys. At baseline, the study participants were 35-74 years old. The median follow-up was 14 years. We computed Cox regression models for each biomarker, adjusted for age, sex, and survey. Additionally, we assigned the biomarkers to 19 etiological pathways based on information from literature. One age-, sex-, and survey-controlled average variable was built for each pathway. We used the R2PM coefficient of determination to assess the explained disease risk. RESULTS: The associations of many biomarkers, such as several cytokines or the iron marker soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), were similar in strength for T2D and CHD, but we also observed important differences. Lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) even demonstrated opposite effect directions. All pathway variables together explained 49% of the T2D risk and 21% of the CHD risk. The insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2 (IGFBP-2, IGF/IGFBP system pathway) best explained the T2D risk (about 9% explained risk, independent of all other pathway variables). For CHD, the myocardial-injury- and lipid-related-pathways were most important and both explained about 4% of the CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: The biomarker-derived pathway variables explained a higher proportion of the T2D risk compared to CHD. The ranking of the pathways differed between the two diseases, with the IGF/IGFBP-system-pathway being most strongly associated with T2D and the myocardial-injury- and lipid-related-pathways with CHD. Our results help to better understand the pathophysiology of the two diseases, with the ultimate goal of pointing out targets for lifestyle intervention and drug development to ideally prevent both T2D and CHD development.

Association of fetuin-A with incident type 2 diabetes: results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg study and a systematic meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of circulating fetuin-A with incident T2D particularly examining potential sex differences. Additionally, we determined whether putative associations were independent of subclinical inflammation, adiponectin and liver fat content. DESIGN: Case-cohort study plus systematic meta-analysis. METHODS: We investigated the association between baseline fetuin-A levels and incident T2D in the MONICA/KORA Augsburg study using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Furthermore, we conducted a systematic review within PubMed and EMBASE and pooled association estimates of eligible studies with the MONICA/KORA Augsburg data using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. RESULTS: Within MONICA/KORA Augsburg, 930 participants developed incident T2D (median follow-up: 14 years). We observed a significant association between fetuin-A and T2D risk after multivariable adjustment including C-reactive protein and adiponectin. The strength of the association was similar in males and females (P value for sex interaction >0.55). Seven eligible published studies were identified in addition to the MONICA/KORA Augsburg study for the meta-analysis. The pooled hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per 1 standard deviation (s.d.) increment of fetuin-A was 1.24 (1.14-1.34) for the multivariable adjusted model. Our sex-stratified meta-analysis yielded relative risk estimates per 1 s.d. of 1.19 (1.04-1.38) in males and 1.29 (1.15-1.46) in females. Further individual adjustment for subclinical inflammation, adiponectin and liver fat content had almost no impact on the strength of the association. CONCLUSIONS: Higher fetuin-A levels are associated with incident T2D in both males and females independently of subclinical inflammation, adiponectin and liver fat content.

Ultra-sensitive troponin I is an independent predictor of incident coronary heart disease in the general population.

Troponins are sensitive markers of myocardial injury and predictive of cardiovascular events, but conventional assays fail to detect slightly elevated troponins in a considerable proportion of the general population. Using a novel ultrasensitive assay, we explored the relationship of troponin levels with the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a case-cohort sample (mean age 52.5 ± 0.2 years, 51.5% women) comprising 803 CHD cases and 1942 non-cases. Ultrasensitive troponin I was detectable in 99.9% of available case-cohort samples. In an age- and sex-adjusted model, individuals in the highest quartile of the troponin distribution had a more than threefold increased risk for CHD events compared to those in the bottom quartile [hazard ratio, HR, 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.15-4.49]. In a model adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors including C-reactive protein, cystatin C and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide, individuals in the highest troponin I quartile still showed a hazard ratio of 2.58 (95% CI 1.66-4.00) for incident CHD as compared to those in the lowest quartile. Ultrasensitive troponin I was detectable in almost all individuals of a study sample reflecting middle-aged to elderly European general population. Ultrasensitive troponin concentrations exhibit an independent, graded, positive relation with incident CHD.

Circulating Levels of Interleukin 1-Receptor Antagonist and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Meta-Analysis of Six Population-Based Cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: Interleukin (IL)-1ß represents a key cytokine in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). IL-1ß is counter-regulated by IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), an endogenous inhibitor. This study aimed to identify population-based studies on circulating IL-1RA and incident CVD in a systematic review, estimate the association between IL-1RA and incident CVD in a meta-analysis, and to test whether the association between IL-1RA and incident CVD is explained by other inflammation-related biomarkers in the MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study (Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg). APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a systematic literature search and identified 5 cohort studies on IL-1RA and incident CVD in addition to the MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study for a meta-analysis based on a total of 1855 CVD cases and 18 745 noncases with follow-up times between 5 and 16 years. The pooled standardized hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident CVD was 1.11 (1.06-1.17) after adjustment for age, sex, anthropometric, metabolic, and lifestyle factors (P<0.0001). There was no heterogeneity in effect sizes (I2=0%; P=0.88). More detailed analyses in the MONICA/KORA study showed that the excess risk for CVD was attenuated by ≥10% after additional separate adjustment for serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6, myeloperoxidase, soluble E-selectin, or soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1. CONCLUSIONS: Serum IL-1RA levels were positively associated with risk of CVD after adjustment for multiple confounders in a meta-analysis of 6 population-based cohorts. This association may at least partially reflect a response to triggers inducing subclinical inflammation, oxidative stress, and endothelial activation.

Improvement of myocardial infarction risk prediction via inflammation-associated metabolite biomarkers.

OBJECTIVE: The comprehensive assaying of low-molecular-weight compounds, for example, metabolomics, provides a unique tool to uncover novel biomarkers and understand pathways underlying myocardial infarction (MI). We used a targeted metabolomics approach to identify biomarkers for MI and evaluate their involvement in the pathogenesis of MI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using three independent, prospective cohorts (KORA S4, KORA S2 and AGES-REFINE), totalling 2257 participants without a history of MI at baseline, we identified metabolites associated with incident MI (266 cases). We also investigated the association between the metabolites and high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP) to understand the relation between these metabolites and systemic inflammation. Out of 140 metabolites, 16 were nominally associated (p<0.05) with incident MI in KORA S4. Three metabolites, arginine and two lysophosphatidylcholines (LPC 17:0 and LPC 18:2), were selected as biomarkers via a backward stepwise selection procedure in the KORA S4 and were significant (p<0.0003) in a meta-analysis comprising all three studies including KORA S2 and AGES-REFINE. Furthermore, these three metabolites increased the predictive value of the Framingham risk score, increasing the area under the receiver operating characteristic score in KORA S4 (from 0.70 to 0.78, p=0.001) and AGES-REFINE study (from 0.70 to 0.76, p=0.02), but was not observed in KORA S2. The metabolite biomarkers attenuated the association between hsCRP and MI, indicating a potential link to systemic inflammatory processes. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three metabolite biomarkers, which in combination increase the predictive value of the Framingham risk score. The attenuation of the hsCRP-MI association by these three metabolites indicates a potential link to systemic inflammation.

Assessment of predictive performance in incomplete data by combining internal validation and multiple imputation.

BACKGROUND: Missing values are a frequent issue in human studies. In many situations, multiple imputation (MI) is an appropriate missing data handling strategy, whereby missing values are imputed multiple times, the analysis is performed in every imputed data set, and the obtained estimates are pooled. If the aim is to estimate (added) predictive performance measures, such as (change in) the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), internal validation strategies become desirable in order to correct for optimism. It is not fully understood how internal validation should be combined with multiple imputation. METHODS: In a comprehensive simulation study and in a real data set based on blood markers as predictors for mortality, we compare three combination strategies: Val-MI, internal validation followed by MI on the training and test parts separately, MI-Val, MI on the full data set followed by internal validation, and MI(-y)-Val, MI on the full data set omitting the outcome followed by internal validation. Different validation strategies, including bootstrap und cross-validation, different (added) performance measures, and various data characteristics are considered, and the strategies are evaluated with regard to bias and mean squared error of the obtained performance estimates. In addition, we elaborate on the number of resamples and imputations to be used, and adopt a strategy for confidence interval construction to incomplete data. RESULTS: Internal validation is essential in order to avoid optimism, with the bootstrap 0.632+ estimate representing a reliable method to correct for optimism. While estimates obtained by MI-Val are optimistically biased, those obtained by MI(-y)-Val tend to be pessimistic in the presence of a true underlying effect. Val-MI provides largely unbiased estimates, with a slight pessimistic bias with increasing true effect size, number of covariates and decreasing sample size. In Val-MI, accuracy of the estimate is more strongly improved by increasing the number of bootstrap draws rather than the number of imputations. With a simple integrated approach, valid confidence intervals for performance estimates can be obtained. CONCLUSIONS: When prognostic models are developed on incomplete data, Val-MI represents a valid strategy to obtain estimates of predictive performance measures.

Intake of Vitamin and Mineral Supplements and Longitudinal Association with HbA1c Levels in the General Non-Diabetic Population--Results from the MONICA/KORA S3/F3 Study.

BACKGROUND: Lower levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are associated with a decreased risk of cardiovascular complications in diabetic and non-diabetic individuals. The aim of the study was to longitudinally investigate the association between the use of 11 vitamins and minerals (vitamins E, C, D, B1, folic acid, carotenoids, calcium, magnesium, zinc, iron, and selenium) and change in HbA1c levels over 10 years in non-diabetic individuals drawn from the general population. METHODS: Baseline data were available from 4447 subjects included in the population-based "Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Diseases" (MONICA) Augsburg S3 survey (1994/95). Follow-up data were derived from 2774 participants in the follow-up survey named "Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg" (KORA) F3 (2004/05). Vitamin/mineral intake from supplements and medications was assessed in a personal interview, where participants were asked to bring product packages of preparations that had been ingested during the last 7 days prior to the examination. Associations between regular vitamin/mineral intake amounts and HbA1c levels measured at baseline and follow-up were investigated using generalized estimating equation models. For carotenoids, analyses were stratified by smoking status. RESULTS: None of the investigated nutrients except for carotenoids was significantly associated with changes in HbA1c levels after 10 years. Regular intake of carotenoids from supplements and medications in amounts > 6.8 mg/d (upper tertile) was associated with an absolute -0.26% (95% CI: -0.43 to -0.08) lower increase in HbA1c levels compared with no intake of carotenoids. An inverse association was observed in those who never smoked but not in (former) smokers. CONCLUSION: Larger prospective and intervention studies in non-diabetic/non-smoking individuals are needed to confirm the results and to assess whether the observed associations between carotenoid intake and change in HbA1c levels are causal. If our results are confirmed, high carotenoid intake could be one strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular complications in non-diabetic people.

Biomarkers of iron metabolism are independently associated with impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes: the KORA F4 study.

OBJECTIVE: Iron has been suggested to play a role in the etiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Except for ferritin, evidence is sparse for other markers of iron metabolism that are regulated differently and might act through independent pathways. We therefore investigated the associations of serum ferritin, transferrin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), transferrin saturation (TSAT), sTfR-to-log10ferritin (sTfR-F) index, and iron with impaired glucose metabolism (IGM/'prediabetes'), T2DM, and four continuous glucose and insulin traits. DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from 2893 participants of the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 study (Germany) was investigated through regression analysis. The results were adjusted for socio-demographic, life-style, and obesity measures as well as metabolic, inflammatory, and other iron biomarkers following a step-wise approach. Non-linearity was tested by adding a non-linear spline component to the model. RESULTS: Ferritin and transferrin were positively associated with IGM (fourth vs first sex-specific quartile: ferritin odds ratio (OR)=2.08 (95% CI 1.43-3.04) and transferrin OR=1.89 (95% CI 1.32-2.70)), T2DM (ferritin OR=1.98 (95% CI 1.22-3.22) and transferrin OR=2.42 (95% CI 1.54-3.81)), and fasting as well as 2-h glucose. TSAT (OR=0.55 (95% CI 0.34-0.88)) and iron (OR=0.61 (95% CI 0.38-0.97)) were inversely associated with T2DM, sTfR-F-index was inversely associated with IGM (OR=0.67 (95% CI 0.48-0.95)). There was no strong evidence for non-linear relationships. CONCLUSIONS: The observed associations of several markers of iron metabolism with hyperglycemia and insulin resistance suggest that iron stores as well as iron-related metabolic pathways contribute to the pathogenesis of IGM and T2DM. Moreover, TSAT levels are decreased in T2DM patients.

Vitamin E supplementation is associated with lower levels of C-reactive protein only in higher dosages and combined with other antioxidants: The Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 study.

The aim of the present study was to examine the association between intake of five common antioxidative nutrients from supplements and medications (vitamin E, vitamin C, carotenoids, Se, and Zn) and levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) in the general population. For this purpose, a total of 2924 participants of the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 study (2006-8) were investigated cross-sectionally. Intake of dietary supplements and medication during the last 7 d was recorded in a personal interview, when participants were asked to show product packages of ingested preparations. Linear regression models were calculated; first, the exposure to regular nutrient intake was treated with a binary response (yes/no); then regularly ingested amounts were divided into quartiles to examine dose-response relationships. Effect of single v. combined supplementation of antioxidants was assessed through the inclusion of interaction terms into the models. Regular intake of any of the five investigated antioxidants per se was not associated with hs-CRP levels. However, dose-response analyses revealed that participants who regularly ingested more than 78 mg vitamin E/d, which corresponds to the upper quartile, had 22% lower hs-CRP levels (95% CI 0·63, 0·97) compared to those of persons who were not exposed to any vitamin E supplementation. Stratified analyses showed that this association was found only in persons who took vitamin E in combination with other antioxidants. The combined supplementation of vitamin E with other antioxidants could thus be a promising strategy for the prevention of inflammation-related diseases in the general population, if further studies could confirm that the proposed association is causal.

Job strain-associated inflammatory burden and long-term risk of coronary events: findings from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We examined the association between job strain and coronary heart disease (CHD) and investigated the role of markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction as possible mediators of job strain-associated CHD risk. METHODS: The sample (n = 1027) included employed participants (35-64 years old, 68% male) from the population-based MONICA/KORA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease/Kooperative Gesundheitsforschung in der Region Augsburg) studies. At baseline Karasek's Job Strain Index was assessed during standardized personal interviews, and nine biological markers were measured (1984-1995). Participants were followed (average, 12 years) to assess incident events (sudden cardiac death or fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction). In this case-cohort design, the final sample contained 114 cases and 913 noncases. RESULTS: Baseline distributions of cardiometabolic risk factors were significantly different between cases and noncases, with no detectable job strain-specific differences. However, cases with high job strain had higher monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, interleukin (IL)-8, and IL-18 compared with noncases with high job strain. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 were increased in cases versus noncases, regardless of work stress. Job strain was associated with incident coronary events in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and survey (hazard ratio = 2.57, 95% confidence interval = 1.09-6.07) and after adjustment for CHD risk factors (2.35, 1.003-5.49). Adjustment for monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 or IL-8 increased this risk estimate by 14.5% or 9.4%, respectively, whereas adjustment for C-reactive protein and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 led to decreased hazard ratios (-9.9% and -5.5%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Job strain increased CHD risk in healthy workers; the associated inflammatory burden may contribute to stress-related coronary pathogenesis.

Low levels of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D are associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, especially in women: results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study.

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: A growing body of evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency may adversely affect the cardiovascular system. Therefore, we thought to prospectively assess the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, the most commonly used index of vitamin D status, and incident coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: We measured serum levels of 25[OH]D in 1783 healthy middle-aged subjects (964 men, 819 women) in the population-based Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg studies. A total of 298 coronary heart disease cases were identified over a mean follow-up period of 11 yr. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, survey, and season of blood sampling, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval comparing tertile extremes of serum levels of 25[OH]D was 0.32 (0.16-0.65) (P for trend = 0.001) in women and 0.56 (0.38-0.82) (P for trend = 0.005) in men. Further adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors slightly attenuated the association in women [HR 0.39 (0.18-0.84); P for trend = 0.013], whereas it became nonsignificant in men [HR 0.76 (0.49-1.17); P for trend = 0.215]. After additional adjustment for C-reactive protein, IL-6, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and interferon-γ-inducible protein-10, the association still remained significant in women [HR 0.42 (0.19-0.93); P for trend = 0.028], and it was further reduced in men [HR 0.84 (0.52-1.35); P for trend = 0.461]. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that higher vitamin D levels are associated with decreased risk of coronary heart disease. This effect is more pronounced in women than in men. Further clinical and experimental studies are needed to investigate the sex differences and whether vitamin D supplementation could contribute to the prevention of coronary heart disease.

Job strain associated CRP is mediated by leisure time physical activity: results from the MONICA/KORA study.

BACKGROUND: Psychological stress at work is considered a cardiac risk factor, yet whether it acts directly through neuroimmune processes, or indirectly by increasing behavioral risk factors, is uncertain. Cross-sectional associations between job strain and serum biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction were investigated. Secondary analyses explored the role of psychosocial/cardiometabolic risk factors as mediators of job stress associated inflammation in healthy workers. METHODS: Information on risk factors was obtained in standardized personal interviews of a subcohort of working participants in the MONICA/KORA population (n = 951). Work stress was measured by the Karasek job strain index. Biomarkers were measured from non-fasting venous blood. Multivariate regression analyses were used to examine the association of job strain with inflammatory biomarkers. Mediation analysis (Sobel test) was used to determine the effect of psychosocial risk factors on the association between job strain and C-reactive protein (CRP). RESULTS: High job strain was reported by half (n = 482, 50.7%) of the study participants. While workers with high job strain were more likely to have adverse workplace conditions (competition with coworkers, job dissatisfaction and insecurity), sleeping problems, depressive symptoms, a Type A personality, and be physically inactive, no differences in cardiometabolic risk factors were detected. A strong and robust association between job strain and CRP was observed in age and sex adjusted models, as well as models adjusted for classic coronary heart disease risk factors (ß = 0.39, p = 0.006 and ß = 0.27, p = 0.03, respectively). Adjustment for physical activity abrogated this effect (ß = 0.23, p = 0.07), and a mediating effect of physical activity on stress-associated inflammation was demonstrated (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The analyses provide evidence for both a direct and an indirect effect of job strain on inflammation.

TGF-ß1 content in atherosclerotic plaques, TGF-ß1 serum concentrations and incident coronary events.

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that high TGF-ß1 content in atherosclerotic plaques and high TGF-ß1 serum levels are associated with lower risk of coronary events in two independent prospective studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the prospective Athero-Express biobank study, total TGF-ß1 plaque levels were measured in 632 atherosclerotic lesions from patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy. In a population-based case-cohort study within the Monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease (MONICA)/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) Augsburg studies, baseline total TGF-ß1 serum levels were measured in 333 individuals with and 1728 without incident coronary events. RESULTS: Patients with TGF-ß1 content in their plaques above the study median did not have a lower risk of coronary events than patients with lower TGF-ß1 levels [adjusted HR (95% CI) 1·46 (0·83-2·53); P = 0·16; mean follow-up 2·6 ± 0·7 years] in the Athero-Express biobank study. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, metabolic factors, lifestyle factors and survey did not reveal a significant association between TGF-ß1 serum levels and incident coronary events [HR (95% CI) for increasing TGF-ß1 tertiles 1·0, 1·22 (0·88-1·68), 1·13 (0·82-1·57); P = 0·47; mean follow-up: 10·8 ± 4·6 years] in the MONICA/KORA Augsburg studies. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that high TGF-ß1 content in human atherosclerotic plaques and high serum levels of TGF-ß1 are not associated with reduced risk of coronary events.

Effect of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D on risk for type 2 diabetes may be partially mediated by subclinical inflammation: results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) and incident type 2 diabetes and to determine whether the association is mediated by subclinical inflammation. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using a case-cohort design, baseline levels of 25-OHD were measured in 416 case subjects with incident type 2 diabetes and 1,267 noncase subjects selected from a source population of 7,936 middle-aged participants in the population-based Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA)/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) study. RESULTS: A significant inverse association was observed between serum 25-OHD and incident type 2 diabetes after adjustment for diabetes risk factors and season. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI comparing tertile extremes was 0.63 (0.44-0.90) (P(trend) = 0.010). Further adjustment for C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 attenuated this association by 16% (HR 0.73 [0.50-1.05], P = 0.090). CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D status is inversely related to type 2 diabetes risk and our data suggest that this association may be partially mediated by subclinical inflammation.

Immunological and cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of type 2 diabetes and coronary events: MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study compares inflammation-related biomarkers with established cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes and incident coronary events in a prospective case-cohort study within the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses for type 2 diabetes are based on 436 individuals with and 1410 individuals without incident diabetes. Analyses for coronary events are based on 314 individuals with and 1659 individuals without incident coronary events. Mean follow-up times were almost 11 years. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), changes in Akaike's information criterion (ΔAIC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated for different models. A basic model consisting of age, sex and survey predicted type 2 diabetes with an AUC of 0.690. Addition of 13 inflammation-related biomarkers (CRP, IL-6, IL-18, MIF, MCP-1/CCL2, IL-8/CXCL8, IP-10/CXCL10, adiponectin, leptin, RANTES/CCL5, TGF-ß1, sE-selectin, sICAM-1; all measured in nonfasting serum) increased the AUC to 0.801, whereas addition of cardiometabolic risk factors (BMI, systolic blood pressure, ratio total/HDL-cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, parental diabetes) increased the AUC to 0.803 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.111 [0.092-0.149] and 0.113 [0.093-0.149], respectively, compared to the basic model). The combination of all inflammation-related biomarkers and cardiometabolic risk factors yielded a further increase in AUC to 0.847 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.044 [0.028-0.066] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model). Corresponding AUCs for incident coronary events were 0.807, 0.825 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.018 [0.013-0.038] compared to the basic model), 0.845 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.038 [0.028-0.059] compared to the basic model) and 0.851 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.006 [0.003-0.021] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of multiple inflammation-related biomarkers into a basic model and into a model including cardiometabolic risk factors significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes and coronary events, although the improvement was less pronounced for the latter endpoint.

Oxidized LDL and the risk of coronary heart disease: results from the MONICA/KORA Augsburg Study.

BACKGROUND: Oxidative stress plays a critical role in the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis. Oxidized LDL (oxLDL) is a marker of oxidative stress. We prospectively investigated whether increased serum oxLDL concentrations are associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: We conducted a prospective population-based case-cohort study within the MONICA/KORA Augsburg studies. Serum oxLDL concentrations were measured in 333 case individuals with incident CHD and in 1727 noncase individuals selected from a source population of 9300 middle-aged, healthy men and women. The mean (SD) follow-up time was 10.8 (4.6) years. RESULTS: Baseline oxLDL concentrations were higher in case individuals than in noncase individuals (P < 0.001). After adjustment for age, sex, survey, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, physical activity, diabetes, body mass index, parental history of myocardial infarction, and alcohol consumption, the hazard ratio (HR) for comparing the first and third tertiles was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.33-2.64; P < 0.001). Additional adjustment for lipid parameters, inflammatory markers, and markers of endothelial dysfunction attenuated the association (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.88-1.89; P = 0.087). We observed no significant interactions between oxLDL and sex or being overweight. CONCLUSIONS: Increased oxLDL concentrations were associated with an increased risk for incident CHD. Nevertheless, because this effect became nonsignificant after adjustment for covariates, particularly the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, it may be mediated primarily by lipid parameters. Further studies are warranted to clarify this issue.