Adaptive designs were primarily used but inadequately reported in early phase drug trials.

BACKGROUND: Faced with the high cost and limited efficiency of classical randomized controlled trials, researchers are increasingly applying adaptive designs to speed up the development of new drugs. However, the application of adaptive design to drug randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and whether the reporting is adequate are unclear. Thus, this study aimed to summarize the epidemiological characteristics of the relevant trials and assess their reporting quality by the Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) checklist. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to January 2020. We included drug RCTs that explicitly claimed to be adaptive trials or used any type of adaptative design. We extracted the epidemiological characteristics of included studies to summarize their adaptive design application. We assessed the reporting quality of the trials by Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) checklist. Univariable and multivariable linear regression models were used to the association of four prespecified factors with the quality of reporting. RESULTS: Our survey included 108 adaptive trials. We found that adaptive design has been increasingly applied over the years, and was commonly used in phase II trials (n = 45, 41.7%). The primary reasons for using adaptive design were to speed the trial and facilitate decision-making (n = 24, 22.2%), maximize the benefit of participants (n = 21, 19.4%), and reduce the total sample size (n = 15, 13.9%). Group sequential design (n = 63, 58.3%) was the most frequently applied method, followed by adaptive randomization design (n = 26, 24.1%), and adaptive dose-finding design (n = 24, 22.2%). The proportion of adherence to the ACE checklist of 26 topics ranged from 7.4 to 99.1%, with eight topics being adequately reported (i.e., level of adherence ≥ 80%), and eight others being poorly reported (i.e., level of adherence ≤ 30%). In addition, among the seven items specific for adaptive trials, three were poorly reported: accessibility to statistical analysis plan (n = 8, 7.4%), measures for confidentiality (n = 14, 13.0%), and assessments of similarity between interim stages (n = 25, 23.1%). The mean score of the ACE checklist was 13.9 (standard deviation [SD], 3.5) out of 26. According to our multivariable regression analysis, later published trials (estimated ß = 0.14, p < 0.01) and the multicenter trials (estimated ß = 2.22, p < 0.01) were associated with better reporting. CONCLUSION: Adaptive design has shown an increasing use over the years, and was primarily applied to early phase drug trials. However, the reporting quality of adaptive trials is suboptimal, and substantial efforts are needed to improve the reporting.

Reduction in Serum Concentrations of Uremic Toxins Driven by Bifidobacterium Longum Subsp. Longum BL21 is Associated with Gut Microbiota Changes in a Rat Model of Chronic Kidney Disease.

Gut microbiota dysbiosis and consequent impairment of gut barrier function, culminating in elevated levels of uremic toxins, are prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. These toxins, notably indoxyl sulphate (IS), indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), and trimethylamine oxide (TMAO), are implicated in a spectrum of CKD-related complications, including cardiovascular disease, bone and mineral disorders, and inflammation. The specific impacts of various probiotics on these CKD manifestations remain unexplored. This study delved into the potential of dietary probiotic interventions, particularly Bifidobacterium longum subsp. longum BL21, to modulate gut microbiota and mitigate metabolic disorders in a CKD rat model. Over a six-week period, we administered a dietary regimen of BL21 and conducted comprehensive analyses, including serum uremic toxin quantification and 16S rRNA gene sequencing, to systematically profile gut microbial alterations at the phylogenetic level. Our findings reveal that BL21 intervention significantly ameliorated CKD-induced disruptions in gut microbial populations, enhancing both microbial richness and the relative abundance of key taxa. Importantly, BL21 appeared to exert its beneficial effects by modulating the abundance of crucial species such as Barnesiella and Helicobacter. Functionally, the intervention markedly normalized serum levels of IS, IAA, and TMAO, while potentially attenuating p-cresol sulphate (PCS) and p-cresol glucuronide (PCG) concentrations. Consequently, BL21 demonstrated efficacy in regulating gut microbiota and curtailing the accumulation of uremic toxins. Our results advocate for the utilization of BL21 as a dietary intervention to diminish serum uremic toxins and re-establish gut microbiota equilibrium at the phylogenetic level, underscoring the promise of probiotic strategies in the management of CKD.

Blood Urine Nitrogen Trajectories of Acute Pancreatitis Patients in Intensive Care Units.

Objective: To identify subclasses of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) by analyzing blood urea nitrogen (BUN) trajectories. Methods: AP patients in West China Hospital System (development cohort) and three public databases in the United States (validation cohort) were included. Latent class trajectory modelling was used to identify subclasses based on BUN trajectories within the first 21 days after ICU admission. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared, and results were externally validated. Results: The study comprised 2971 and 930 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively, with five subclasses: Class 1 ("Moderate-azotemia, slow decreasing"), Class 2 ("Non-azotemia"), Class 3 ("Severe-azotemia, slow decreasing"), Class 4 ("Moderate-azotemia, rapid increasing"), and Class 5 ('Moderate-azotemia, slow increasing) identified. Azotemia patients showed significantly higher 30-day mortality risk in development and validation cohorts. Specifically, Class 4 patients exhibited notably highest mortality risk in both the development cohort (HR 5.32, 95% CI 2.62-10.82) and validation cohort (HR 6.23, 95% CI 2.93-13.22). Regarding clinical characteristics, AP patients in Class 4 showed lower mean arterial pressure and a higher proportion of renal disease. We also created an online early classification model to further identify Class 4 patients among all patients with moderate azotemia at baseline. Conclusion: This multinational study uncovers heterogeneity in BUN trajectories among AP patients. Patients with "Moderate-azotemia, rapid increasing" trajectory, had a higher mortality risk than patients with severe azotemia at baseline. This finding complements studies that solely rely on baseline BUN for risk stratification and enhanced our understanding of longitudinal progression of AP.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate. AIM: To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models. RESULTS: Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value. CONCLUSION: The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Research hotspots and evolving trends of barrier dysfunction in acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Endothelial and epithelial barrier dysfunction due to increased permeability and heightened inflammatory reactions influences the emergence of acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Nevertheless, bibliometric research comparing endothelial and epithelial barriers is limited. Therefore, this bibliometric study analyzed the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) of the Science Citation Index Expanded literature to explore present research priorities and development tendencies within this field. We conducted a comprehensive search (October 18, 2023) on WoSCC from January 1, 2010, to October 18, 2023, focusing on articles related to endothelial and epithelial barriers in ALI and ARDS. Retrieved data were visualized and analyzed using R-bibliometrix, VOS viewer 1.6.19, and CiteSpace 6.2. R4. Functional enrichment analysis of gene targets identified in the keyword list using Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) and Gene ontology databases, and based on the STRING database to construct a PPI network to predict core genes. A total of 941 original articles and reviews were identified. The United States had the highest number of publications and citations and the highest H-index and G-index. According to the Collaboration Network Analysis graph, the United States and China had the strongest collaboration. Birukova AA had the most publications and citations among all authors, while eight of the top ten institutions with mediator centrality were located in the United States. The American Journal of Physiology-Lung Cellular and Molecular Physiology was the leading journal and had the most well-established publication on endothelial and epithelial barriers in ALI and ARDS. Bibliometric analysis revealed that the most frequently used keywords were acute lung injury, ARDS, activation, expression, and inflammation. RHOA appeared most frequently among gene-related keywords, and the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway had the highest count in KEGG pathway enrichment. Research on endothelial versus epithelial barriers in ALI and ARDS remains preliminary. This bibliometric study examined cooperative network connections among countries, authors, journals, and network associations in the cited references. Investigation of the functions of the endothelial and epithelial barriers in ALI/ARDS associated with COVID-19 has recently gained significant attention.

Global study of anti-NMDA encephalitis: a bibliometric analysis from 2005 to 2023.

Background: Autoimmune diseases have always been one of the difficult diseases of clinical concern. Because of the diversity and complexity of its causative factors, unclear occurrence and development process and difficult treatment, it has become a key disease for researchers to study. And the disease explored in this paper, anti-NMDA encephalitis, belongs to a common type of autoimmune encephalitis. However, the quality of articles and research hotspots in this field are not yet known. Therefore, in this field, we completed a bibliometric and visualization analysis from 2005 to 2023 in order to understand the research hotspots and directions of development in this field. Materials and methods: We searched the SCI-expanded databases using Web of Science's core databases on January 22, 2024 and used tools such as VOS viewer, Cite Space, and R software to visualize and analyze the authors, countries, journals, institutions, and keywords of the articles. Results: A total of 1,161 literatures were retrieved and analyzed in this study. China was the country with the most total publications, and USA and Spain were the most influential countries in the field of anti-NMDA encephalitis. University of Pennsylvania from USA was the institution with the highest number of publications. While Dalmau Josep is the most prolific, influential and contributing author who published one of the most cited articles in Lancet Neurology, which laid the foundation for anti-NMDA encephalitis research, the top three appearances of keyword analysis were: "antibodies", "diagnosis", and "autoimmune encephalitis." Conclusion: Bibliometric analysis shows that the number of studies on anti-NMDA encephalitis is generally increasing year by year, and it is a hot disease pursued by researchers. USA and Spain are leading in the field of anti-NMDA encephalitis, while China should continue to improve the quality of its own research. The suspected causes of anti-NMDA encephalitis other than ovarian teratoma and herpes simplex, the specific clinical manifestations that are not masked by psychiatric symptoms, the diagnostic modalities that are faster and more accurate than antibody tests, and the improvement of treatment modalities by evaluating prognosis of various types of patients are the hotspots for future research.

The Use of Real-World Evidence for Regulatory Decisions in China.

There is a growing demand for the use of high-quality real-world evidence (RWE) to support regulatory decision-making worldwide and in China, which highlights the need for conducting literature reviews to evaluate the available data and evidence. This study aims to review the use of RWE in Chinese regulatory decisions and to summarize relevant regulatory and methodological considerations to inform the future use of RWE in China. We identified policy documents, technical guidance documents, and cases on official Chinese government websites and extracted their contents separately. We consulted experts from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) and academic institutes and searched case-related articles for enrichment. We also searched and included articles related to the use of RWE/Real-world data in Chinese regulatory decisions. Six trial versions of technical guidance documents, 7 case studies, and 40 articles related to the Chinese regulatory decisions were included in this study. Based on the technical guidance, data quality, and appropriate study design and statistical analysis are the main concerns for RWE generation. The cases and articles related to regulatory decisions revealed 9 main concerns, including data sources and applicability, data quality, strength of existing evidence, appropriate study design and statistical analysis, regulated and transparent process for analysis and evidence generation, product safety and efficacy, product characteristics and clinical needs, ethical considerations and data security, and communicate adequately with regulatory authorities. Among these concerns, data issues are central. Preliminary attempts have been made by the NMPA to promote the use of RWE, but substantial challenges still remain.

Comparing various Bayesian random-effects models for pooling randomized controlled trials with rare events.

The meta-analysis of rare events presents unique methodological challenges owing to the small number of events. Bayesian methods are often used to combine rare events data to inform decision-making, as they can incorporate prior information and handle studies with zero events without the need for continuity corrections. However, the comparative performances of different Bayesian models in pooling rare events data are not well understood. We conducted a simulation to compare the statistical properties of four parameterizations based on the binomial-normal hierarchical model, using two different priors for the treatment effect: weakly informative prior (WIP) and non-informative prior (NIP), pooling randomized controlled trials with rare events using the odds ratio metric. We also considered the beta-binomial model proposed by Kuss and the random intercept and slope generalized linear mixed models. The simulation scenarios varied based on the treatment effect, sample size ratio between the treatment and control arms, and level of heterogeneity. Performance was evaluated using median bias, root mean square error, median width of 95% credible or confidence intervals, coverage, Type I error, and empirical power. Two reviews are used to illustrate these methods. The results demonstrate that the WIP outperforms the NIP within the same model structure. Among the compared models, the model that included the treatment effect parameter in the risk model for the control arm did not perform well. Our findings confirm that rare events meta-analysis faces the challenge of being underpowered, highlighting the importance of reporting the power of results in empirical studies.

The Top 100 Cited Articles Focusing on Acute Lung Injury and ARDS: Bibliometric and Visualization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, acute lung injury (ALI) and ARDS have emerged as critical health concerns, drawing considerable attention from clinicians. The volume of published articles on ALI/ARDS is on the rise, indicating the expanding research interest in this field. However, the precise quantity and quality of studies on ALI/ARDS remain unclear. Consequently, we employed bibliometric and visual techniques to comprehensively analyze the patterns and focal points of these articles. METHODS: To investigate the characteristics of highly referenced papers on ALI/ARDS and offer insights into the progress and advancements in research on ALI/ARDS, we conducted a comprehensive search in the core Web of Science database for cited articles using the terms "ALI," "acute lung injury," "ARDS," or "acute respiratory distress syndrome." A total of 60,282 citations were retrieved by narrowing the scope to reviews, articles, and publications in English. From the obtained citations, we selected materials for analysis from the top 100 articles with the highest number of citations. Subsequently, the articles were visualized and analyzed using VOSviewer, CiteSpace, and bibliometric techniques. This analysis focused on identifying trends related to authors, journals, countries, institutions, collaborative networks, key words, and other relevant factors in the field of ALI/ARDS research. RESULTS: Among the top 100 cited articles, the highest and lowest number of citations were 6,957 and 451, respectively. A total of 100 articles were published between 1991-2020, with a peak in publications observed in 2004, 2005, and 2012 (no. = 7). Among 29 journals, The New England Journal of Medicine (no. = 21) had the highest number of publications, followed by the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine (no. = 14). Among the 29 countries represented in the top 100 cited articles, the United States (no. = 51) emerged as the leading country in the number of publications, followed by Canada (no. = 19) (there was some overlap in paper output between countries due to co-publication). The 3 predominant keywords identified in studies within the ALI/ARDS domain were ALI, mechanical ventilation, and PEEP. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a historical perspective on the scientific advancements in ALI/ARDS research, highlighting the need for further investigation and development in specific areas within the field. Bibliometric analyses reveal that the United States is the predominant force in the field of ALI/ARDS, contributing significantly to its development. Through an examination of highly cited papers on ALI/ARDS, we have identified global research trends, assessed the quality of studies, and identified hot topics in the field of ALI/ARDS.

A population-based cohort of drug exposures and adverse pregnancy outcomes in China (DEEP): rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

The DEEP cohort is the first population-based cohort of pregnant population in China that longitudinally documented drug uses throughout the pregnancy life course and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The main goal of the study aims to monitor and evaluate the safety of drug use through the pregnancy life course in the Chinese setting. The DEEP cohort is developed primarily based on the population-based data platforms in Xiamen, a municipal city of 5 million population in southeast China. Based on these data platforms, we developed a pregnancy database that documented health care services and outcomes in the maternal and other departments. For identifying drug uses, we developed a drug prescription database using electronic healthcare records documented in the platforms across the primary, secondary and tertiary hospitals. By linking these two databases, we developed the DEEP cohort. All the pregnant women and their offspring in Xiamen are provided with health care and followed up according to standard protocols, and the primary adverse outcomes - congenital malformations - are collected using a standardized Case Report Form. From January 2013 to December 2021, the DEEP cohort included 564,740 pregnancies among 470,137 mothers, and documented 526,276 live births, 14,090 miscarriages and 6,058 fetal deaths/stillbirths and 25,723 continuing pregnancies. In total, 13,284,982 prescriptions were documented, in which 2,096 chemicals drugs, 163 biological products, 847 Chinese patent medicines and 655 herbal medicines were prescribed. The overall incidence rate of congenital malformations was 2.0% (10,444/526,276), while there were 25,526 (4.9%) preterm births and 25,605 (4.9%) live births with low birth weight.

Handling time-varying treatments in observational studies: A scoping review and recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Time-varying treatments are common in observational studies. However, when assessing treatment effects, the methodological framework has not been systematically established for handling time-varying treatments. This study aimed to examine the current methods for dealing with time-varying treatments in observational studies and developed practical recommendations. METHODS: We searched PubMed from 2000 to 2021 for methodological articles about time-varying treatments, and qualitatively summarized the current methods for handling time-varying treatments. Subsequently, we developed practical recommendations through interactive internal group discussions and consensus by a panel of external experts. RESULTS: Of the 36 eligible reports (22 methodological reviews, 10 original studies, 2 tutorials and 2 commentaries), most examined statistical methods for time-varying treatments, and only a few discussed the overarching methodological process. Generally, there were three methodological components to handle time-varying treatments. These included the specification of treatment which may be categorized as three scenarios (i.e., time-independent treatment, static treatment regime, or dynamic treatment regime); definition of treatment status which could involve three approaches (i.e., intention-to-treat, per-protocol, or as-treated approach); and selection of analytic methods. Based on the review results, a methodological workflow and a set of practical recommendations were proposed through two consensus meetings. CONCLUSIONS: There is no consensus process for assessing treatment effects in observational studies with time-varying treatments. Previous efforts were dedicated to developing statistical methods. Our study proposed a stepwise workflow with practical recommendations to assist the practice.

Design and statistical analysis reporting among interrupted time series studies in drug utilization research: a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results. OBJECTIVE: To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements. METHODS: A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis. RESULTS: We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue. CONCLUSION: The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Tenecteplase versus alteplase for acute ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized and non-randomized studies.

OBJECTIVE: Alteplase is the current standard of care for acute ischemic stroke. Tenecteplase is a newer fibrinolytic agent with preferable administration and lower costs; however, its comparative effectiveness to alteplase remains uncertain. We set out to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to establish the benefits and harms of tenecteplase versus alteplase for acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to April 2023 for randomized and non-randomized studies that compared tenecteplase versus alteplase for acute ischemic stroke. Paired reviewers independently assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We performed both conventional meta-analyses and Bayesian network meta-analyses (NMA) with random-effects models and used the GRADE approach to evaluate the certainty of evidence. Our primary efficacy outcome was excellent functional outcome at 3 months, defined as a score of 0-1 on the modified Rankin Scale. Our primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Thirty-six studies were eligible for review, including 12 randomized (n = 5533) and 24 non-randomized studies (n = 44,956). Moderate certainty evidence showed that there was no difference between tenecteplase and alteplase in increasing the proportion of patients achieving excellent functional outcome at 3 months (odds ratio [OR], 1.10; 95% CI 0.98-1.23; risk difference [RD] 2.4%, 95% CI - 0.5 to 5.2), while moderate certainty evidence from NMA suggested that 0.25 mg/kg tenecteplase significantly improved excellent functional outcome at 3 months (OR, 1.16; 95% credible interval 1.02-1.32). Moderate certainty evidence showed that, compared to alteplase, tenecteplase may make little to no difference in the prevalence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR, 1.12; 95% CI 0.79-1.59; RD 0.3%, 95% CI - 0.5 to 1.4), and probably reduces all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.44; 95% CI 0.30-0.64; RD - 4.6%; 95% CI - 5.8 to - 2.9). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate certainty evidence suggested that there was little to no difference between tenecteplase and alteplase in increasing the proportion of patients achieving excellent functional outcome at 3 months and the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, while compared to alteplase, tenecteplase probably reduce all-cause mortality. Administration of 0.25 mg/kg tenecteplase after acute ischemic stroke is suggestive of increasing the proportion of patients that achieve excellent functional outcome at 3 months.

Comparing clinical outcomes of peroral endoscopic myotomy for achalasia between Eastern and Western countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) has revolutionized the therapeutic strategy for achalasia with promising results. We conducted this meta-analysis to compare clinical outcomes between Eastern and Western countries. A comprehensive literature search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases to query for studies that assessed the efficacy of POEM for achalasia. All articles published from inception to December 31, 2021 were included. The primary outcome was the pooled clinical success rate. The secondary outcomes included the pooled technical success rate, incidence of adverse events, procedure time and hospital stay. Eighteen Eastern studies involving 5962 patients and 11 Western studies involving 1651 patients were included. The pooled clinical success rate and technical success rate for POEM was equal in the Eastern studies compared to Western studies. The pooled incidence of procedure adverse events for POEM was a little lower in the Eastern studies compared to Western studies (6.6% vs. 8.7%). Similarly, the incidence of reflux-related adverse events was lower in Eastern studies than that in Western studies. The pooled procedure time of POEM was shorter in Eastern studies compared to Western studies (61 minutes vs. 80 minutes), while the length of hospital stay was longer in Eastern studies compared to Western studies (5.8 days vs. 2.4 days). Overall, Eastern countries have the similar POEM outcomes compared to Western countries. However, Eastern countries still need to do more to reduce the length of hospital stay.

Trends of hospitalisation among new admission inpatients with oesophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis from 2014 to 2019 in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University: a single-centre time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the internal law and time trend of hospitalisation for oesophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in cirrhosis and develop an effective model to predict the trend of hospitalisation time. DESIGN: We used a time series covering 72 months to analyse the hospitalisation for EGVB in cirrhosis. The number of inpatients in the first 60 months was used as the training set to establish the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the number over the next 12 months was used as the test set to predict and observe their fitting effect. SETTING AND DATA: Case data of patients with EGVB between January 2014 and December 2019 were collected from the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University. OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of monthly hospitalised patients with EGVB in our hospital. RESULTS: A total of 877 patients were included in the analysis. The proportion of EGVB in patients with cirrhosis was 73% among men and 27% among women. The peak age at hospitalisation was 40-60 years. The incidence of EGVB varied seasonally with two peaks from January to February and October to November, while the lowest number was observed between April and August. Time-series analysis showed that the number of inpatients with EGVB in our hospital increased annually. The sequence after the first-order difference was a stationary series (augmented Dickey-Fuller test p=0.02). ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1)12 with a minimum Akaike Information Criterion value of 260.18 could fit the time trend of EGVB inpatients and had a good short-term prediction effect. The root mean square error and mean absolute error were 2.4347 and 1.9017, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The number of hospitalised patients with EGVB at our hospital is increasing annually, with seasonal changes. The ARIMA model has a good prediction effect on the number of hospitalised patients with EGVB in cirrhosis.

Prediction and evaluation of a nomogram model for recurrent acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the influencing factors for recurrent acute pancreatitis and construct the nomogram model to predict the risk of recurrent acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University were enrolled. We collected these patients' basic information, laboratory data, imaging information. Using Logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to select risk factor for Cross-Validation Criterion. To create nomogram and validated by receiver operator characteristic curve, calibration curves and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 533 patients with acute pancreatitis were included, including 99 recurrent acute pancreatitis patients. The average age of recurrent acute pancreatitis patients was 49.69 years old, and 67.7% of them were male. At the same time, in all recurrent acute pancreatitis patients, hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis is the most important reason (54.5%). Regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression showed that smoking history, acute necrotic collection, triglyceride, and alcohol etiology for acute pancreatitis were identified and entered into the nomogram. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the training set was 0.747. The calibration curve showed the consistency between the nomogram model and the actual probability. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, some high-risk factors like smoking history, acute necrotic collection, triglyceride, and alcohol etiology for acute pancreatitis may predict recurrent pancreatitis and their incorporation into a nomogram has high accuracy in predicting recurrence.

A systematic survey of adaptive trials shows substantial improvement in methods is needed.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the design, conduct, and analysis of adaptive trials through a systematic survey and provide recommendations for future adaptive trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases up to January 2020. We included trials that were self-described as adaptive trials or applied adaptive designs. We identified three frequently used adaptive designs and summarized their methodological details in terms of design, conduct, and analysis. Lastly, we provided recommendations for future adaptive trials. RESULTS: We included a total of 128 trials in this study. The primary motivations for using adaptive design were to speed up the trials and facilitate decision-making (n = 29, 31.5%). The three most frequently used methods were group sequential design (GSD) (n = 71, 55.5%), adaptive dose-finding design (ADFD) (n = 35, 27.3%), and adaptive randomization design (ARD) (n = 26, 20.3%). The timing and frequency of interim analysis were detailed in three-fourths of the GSD trials (n = 55, 77.5%) and in half of the ADFD trials (n = 19, 54.3%); however, more than half of the ARD trials (n = 15, 57.7%) did not provide this information. Some trials selected a different outcome than the primary outcome for interim analysis (GSD: n = 7, 12.7%; ADFD: n = 8, 27.6%; ARD: n = 7, 50.0%), but the majority of these trials did not provide explicit reasons for this choice (GSD: n = 7, 100.0%; ADFD: n = 7, 87.5%; ARD: n = 5, 71.4%). More than half (n = 76, 59.4%) of trials did not mention the accessibility of supporting documents, and two-thirds (n = 86, 67.2%) did not state the establishment of independent data monitoring committees (IDMCs). Moreover, unplanned adjustments were observed during the conduct of one-sixth adaptive trials (n = 22, 17.2%). Based on our findings, we provide 14 recommendations for improving adaptive trials in the future. CONCLUSION: Substantial improvements were needed in methods of adaptive trials, particularly in the areas of interim analysis, the establishment of independent data monitoring committees, and unplanned adjustments. In this study, we offer recommendations from both general and specific aspects for researchers to carefully design, conduct, and analyze adaptive trials.

Regulation of spermatogonial stem cell differentiation by Sertoli cells-derived exosomes through paracrine and autocrine signaling.

In the orchestrated environment of the testicular niche, the equilibrium between self-renewal and differentiation of spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) is meticulously maintained, ensuring a stable stem cell reserve and robust spermatogenesis. Within this milieu, extracellular vesicles, specifically exosomes, have emerged as critical conveyors of intercellular communication. Despite their recognized significance, the implications of testicular exosomes in modulating SSC fate remain incompletely characterized. Given the fundamental support and regulatory influence of Sertoli cells (SCs) on SSCs, we were compelled to explore the role of SC-derived exosomes (SC-EXOs) in the SSC-testicular niche. Our investigation hinged on the hypothesis that SC-EXOs, secreted by SCs from the testes of 5-day-old mice-a developmental juncture marking the onset of SSC differentiation-participate in the regulation of this process. We discovered that exposure to SC-EXOs resulted in an upsurge of PLZF, MVH, and STRA8 expression in SSC cultures, concomitant with a diminution of ID4 and GFRA1 levels. Intriguingly, obstructing exosomal communication in a SC-SSC coculture system with the exosome inhibitor GW4869 attenuated SSC differentiation, suggesting that SC-EXOs may modulate this process via paracrine signaling. Further scrutiny revealed the presence of miR-493-5p within SC-EXOs, which suppresses Gdnf mRNA in SCs to indirectly restrain SSC differentiation through the modulation of GDNF expression-an indication of autocrine regulation. Collectively, our findings illuminate the complex regulatory schema by which SC-EXOs affect SSC differentiation, offering novel perspectives and laying the groundwork for future preclinical and clinical investigations.

Sample size calculations for randomized controlled trials with repeatedly measured continuous variables as primary outcomes need improvements: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with repeatedly measured continuous variables as primary outcomes are common. Although statistical methodologies for calculating sample sizes in such trials have been extensively investigated, their practical application remains unclear. This study aims to provide an overview of sample size calculation methods for different research questions (e.g., key time point treatment effect, treatment effect change over time) and evaluate the adequacy of current practices in trial design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed to identify RCTs published in core journals in 2019 that utilized repeatedly measured continuous variables as their primary outcomes. Data were extracted using a predefined questionnaire including general study characteristics, primary outcomes, detailed sample size calculation methods, and methods for analyzing the primary outcome. We re-estimated the sample size for trials that provided all relevant parameters. RESULTS: A total of 168 RCTs were included, with a median of four repeated measurements (interquartile range 3-6) per outcome. In 48 (28.6%) trials, the primary outcome used for sample size calculation differed from the one used in defining the primary outcomes. There were 90 (53.6%) trials exhibited inconsistencies between the hypotheses specified for sample size calculation and those specified for primary analysis. The statistical methods used for sample size calculation in 158 (94.0%) trials did not align with those used for primary analysis. Additionally, only 6 (3.6%) trials accounted for the number of repeated measurements, and 7 (4.2%) trials considered the correlation among these measurements when calculating the sample size. Furthermore, of the 128 (76.2%) trials that considered loss to follow-up, 33 (25.8%) used an incorrect formula (i.e., N∗(1+lose rate) for sample size adjustment. In 53 (49.5%) out of 107 trials, the re-estimated sample size was larger than the reported sample size. CONCLUSION: The practice of sample size calculation for RCTs with repeatedly measured continuous variables as primary outcomes displayed significant deficiencies, with a notable proportion of trials failed to report essential parameters about repeated measurement required for sample size calculation. Our findings highlight the urgent need to use optimal sample size methods that align with the research hypothesis, primary analysis method, and the form of the primary outcome.